Kuwait Economic Forecast

Kuwait Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Although the economy remains fragile due to constrained government spending, private consumption dynamics appear upbeat. In November, consumers reported optimism regarding economic conditions, and household lending grew at a healthy rate compared to the same month a year earlier. The government’s efforts to improve its fiscal performance have not gone unnoticed by the IMF, which on 24 January noted progress but also recommended additional measures, such as implementing tax reform and containing expenditure on wages. On 29 January, the government approved the budget proposal for FY 2018, which begins in April. The proposal projects a large deficit and roughly maintains FY 2017’s level of expenditure at 20 billion dinars.

Kuwait Economic Growth

This year, the economy should be supported by solid fixed investment as it benefits from the execution of projects designated under the National Development Plan. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.0% in 2019.

Kuwait Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.83.94.04.14.2
GDP per capita (USD)45,98544,51141,10127,617-  
GDP (USD bn)174173164114-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.61.20.51.9-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.45.62.61.3-  
Investment (annual variation in %)5.18.94.513.0-  
Unemployment Rate2.12.12.12.12.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)33.222.219.9-11.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.92.72.93.33.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)2.002.002.002.252.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.280.280.290.300.31
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)0.280.280.280.300.30
Current Account (% of GDP)45.539.933.45.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)79.169.155.05.91.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)95.489.678.327.820.6
Exports (USD billion)12011510655.146.7
Imports (USD billion)24.225.427.327.226.1
Exports (annual variation in %)15.6-3.8-8.2-47.9-15.2
Imports (annual variation in %)6.64.97.2-0.2-4.0
International Reserves (USD)29.029.532.228.431.1
External Debt (% of GDP)17.220.821.432.0-  

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Kuwait Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.30-0.05 %Feb 16
Stock Market6,7210.22 %Feb 16

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