Kuwait Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017Kuwait’s economy, which has suffered from weaker oil production this year, faces political instability as the year draws to a close. On 30 October, the prime minister and his entire cabinet resigned. Re-appointed by the emir, the prime minister is now in the process of forming a new cabinet. On 15 November, following a staff visit, the IMF highlighted that the country’s fiscal position remains vulnerable and dependent on transfers from its financial reserves. However, it also noted the non-oil sector stands to improve this year, moderating the expected economic contraction due to a weaker oil sector. On 21 November, Iraq agreed to resume compensating Kuwait for costs related to the 1990–1991 Gulf War, which should provide a slight fiscal dividend over the coming years.
Kuwait Economic GrowthA pick-up in the oil sector on higher oil prices should benefit the economy next year, which will also be boosted by resilient private consumption. Our panel expects GDP to increase 2.5% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, panelists see GDP growth of 3.2%.
Kuwait Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||45,985||44,511||41,101||27,617||-|
|GDP (USD bn)||174||173||164||114||-|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||6.6||1.2||0.5||1.9||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||10.4||5.6||2.6||1.3||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||5.1||8.9||4.5||13.0||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||33.2||22.2||19.9||-11.0||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.9||2.7||2.9||3.3||3.2|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||2.00||2.00||2.00||2.25||2.50|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.28||0.28||0.29||0.30||0.31|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||0.28||0.28||0.28||0.30||0.30|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||45.5||39.9||33.4||5.2||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||79.1||69.1||55.0||5.9||1.0|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||95.4||89.6||78.3||27.8||20.6|
|Exports (USD billion)||120||115||106||55.1||46.7|
|Imports (USD billion)||24.2||25.4||27.3||27.2||26.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||15.6||-3.8||-8.2||-47.9||-15.2|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.6||4.9||7.2||-0.2||-4.0|
|International Reserves (USD)||29.0||29.5||32.2||28.4||31.1|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||17.2||20.8||21.4||32.0||-|
5 years of Kuwait economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.30||-0.05 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||6,197||0.22 %||Dec 06|
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