Kuwait Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
The energy sector has performed well so far this year, with oil output up around 14% in the first four months thanks to reduced OPEC+ curbs. In the non-oil sector, momentum was likely curbed in early 2022 by a surge in Covid-19 cases and some ensuing restrictions. However, since mid-February cases have fallen and these restrictions have been eased, supporting domestic consumption and visitor arrivals. In addition, both business and consumer lending improved during the first quarter, with the latter growing at a double-digit annual rate, while a multi-year high in the price of oil may be boosting government spending. However, the country has been in political limbo since the executive branch of government resigned in early April. This is delaying important reforms—including the approval of a new debt law that will allow the country to tap international bond markets.Kuwait Economic Growth
GDP growth should pick up this year due to higher oil output and prices and increased domestic demand due to the ebbing impact of Covid-19. Slow progress on reforms in such areas as economic diversification, fiscal management, labor markets and housing due to political gridlock is a downside risk. FocusEconomics analysts forecast GDP growth of 7.0% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection. In 2023, our panel expects growth of 3.4%.Kuwait Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 27,261 | 25,301 | 27,099 | 30,673 | 28,639 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 114 | 110 | 121 | 140 | 135 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 0.6 | 2.9 | -4.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 5.7 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 2.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -13.4 | -13.9 | -8.9 | -3.0 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.75 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 3.5 | -4.6 | 8.0 | 14.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 4.0 | -5.1 | 9.6 | 20.3 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 27.8 | 19.5 | 25.7 | 40.8 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 54.2 | 46.6 | 55.2 | 72.1 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 26.4 | 27.0 | 29.5 | 31.3 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -48.7 | -14.1 | 18.5 | 30.7 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -3.1 | 2.3 | 9.1 | 6.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 28.4 | 31.1 | 33.7 | 37.1 | 39.9 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 35.7 | 38.5 | 45.6 | - | - |
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Kuwait Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.30 | -0.05 % | Dec 31 |
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