Kuwait Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018
Exports have grown rapidly in the first eight months of the year—especially between May and August—, powered by crude oil production increases in the second and third quarters and amid higher oil prices. Oil exports constitute around 90% of total exports, hence the economy is expected to have performed well in Q3. The outlook for the fourth quarter, however, is slightly less rosy after the U.S. temporarily granted sanction waivers to Iran’s biggest buyers and amid higher U.S. oil production, both of which will weigh on oil prices. Moreover, Kuwait’s oil output decreased in October, while OPEC is expected to impose production curbs at its 6 December meeting in efforts to stem the decline in prices.Kuwait Economic Growth
A large infrastructure investment push and business-friendly reforms to lure FDI should support the economy next year. Downside risks include the recent fall in oil prices and tensions between the government and parliament, which could hamper diversification efforts. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.Kuwait Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,488 | 40,248 | 27,014 | 25,859 | 27,260 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 173 | 163 | 115 | 111 | 120 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 3.5 | -2.9 |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.8 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 8.9 | 4.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 22.2 | 19.9 | -10.9 | - | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 40.3 | 33.8 | 3.5 | -4.5 | 6.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 69.8 | 55.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 | 7.6 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 89.6 | 78.3 | 27.8 | 20.1 | 23.5 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 115 | 106 | 54.2 | 46.6 | 55.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 25.4 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 31.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -3.8 | -8.2 | -48.7 | -14.1 | 18.2 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 4.9 | 7.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 | 19.2 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 29.5 | 32.2 | 28.4 | 31.1 | 33.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 11.4 | 14.7 | 32.6 | 37.2 | - |
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Kuwait Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.30 | -0.05 % | Dec 12 |
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