Kuwait Economic Outlook
November 26, 2019
Economic momentum was likely fairly subdued in the third quarter and heading into the fourth quarter. Oil production continued to decline in annual terms through October, as Kuwait over-complied with OPEC+ production cuts, which will have hurt the energy sector. Moreover, credit growth ebbed slightly in the third quarter relative to Q2, which could have dampened the performance of the non-oil sector. That said, a solid labor market and still-low inflation should have supported private consumption. On the political front, the government resigned in mid-November after Parliament filed a no-confidence vote in the interior minister. Foreign minister Sheikh Sabah al-Khalid al-Sabah was swiftly appointed as the new prime minister. The economy is unlikely to be affected by the recent events.Kuwait Economic Growth
In 2020, the economy is seen gaining momentum due to a modest recovery in the oil sector, although growth will remain mild. Volatile oil prices and possible further OPEC+ production cuts, combined with regional geopolitical tensions, pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.2% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2021.Kuwait Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,489 | 40,694 | 27,261 | 25,301 | 26,840 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 173 | 164 | 114 | 110 | 119 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 2.9 | -3.5 |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 3.4 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | - | - | - | - | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 26.1 | 7.6 | -13.4 | -13.9 | -9.0 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 40.3 | 33.4 | 3.5 | -4.6 | 5.9 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 69.8 | 55.0 | 4.0 | -5.1 | 7.1 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 89.6 | 78.3 | 27.8 | 19.5 | 25.6 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 115 | 106 | 54.2 | 46.6 | 55.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 25.4 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 27.0 | 29.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -3.8 | -8.2 | -48.7 | -14.1 | 18.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 4.9 | 7.2 | -3.1 | 2.3 | 9.2 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 29.5 | 32.2 | 28.4 | 31.1 | 33.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 11.4 | 14.7 | 35.7 | 38.5 | 45.6 |
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Kuwait Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.30 | -0.05 % | Nov 21 |
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