Kuwait Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018
Recent data shows that the economy expanded at a meager pace in Q1 over the same period a year ago. Growth was primarily driven by the non-oil sector, which grew at a robust pace compared to the prior quarter. The oil and oil products sector did, however, rebound to expand for the first time in the past five quarters, benefitting from the oil price rally. The 23 June decision to ease production curbs by OPEC and non-OPEC members could boost the oil sector in quarters ahead, although the amount of extra output is still unclear. In late June, parliament passed the FY 2019 budget, which envisages a significant spending increase, despite the sizeable fiscal deficit.Kuwait Economic Growth
Domestic demand—buttressed by fixed investment growth and private consumption—and higher oil prices are expected to support economic growth this year. The rally in oil prices should also improve the current account and fiscal balances, although it could also reduce the government’s willingness to implement needed reforms. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.0% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.Kuwait Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,488 | 40,248 | 27,014 | 25,859 | 27,260 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 173 | 163 | 115 | 111 | 120 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 3.5 | -2.9 |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 4.8 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 8.9 | 4.5 | 15.5 | 2.0 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 22.2 | 19.9 | -10.9 | - | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.25 | 2.50 | 2.75 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.28 | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 0.28 | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 40.3 | 33.8 | 3.5 | -4.5 | 6.3 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 69.8 | 55.0 | 4.0 | -5.0 | 7.6 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 89.6 | 78.3 | 27.8 | 20.1 | 23.5 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 115 | 106 | 54.2 | 46.6 | 55.0 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 25.4 | 27.3 | 26.4 | 26.4 | 31.5 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -3.8 | -8.2 | -48.7 | -14.1 | 18.2 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 4.9 | 7.2 | -3.1 | 0.1 | 19.2 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 29.5 | 32.2 | 28.4 | 31.1 | 33.7 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 11.4 | 14.7 | 32.6 | 37.2 | - |
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Kuwait Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.30 | -0.05 % | Jul 13 |
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