Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The economy has performed robustly so far this year, driven by a surge in public capital spending and a stronger EU economy, which has fueled remittances growth and supported Kosovo’s external sector. In October, merchandise exports soared over the same month of the previous year due to a strong base effect and robust mineral and base metal output. Lending growth remained buoyant in September. Peaceful run-off votes across several municipalities—including in the capital Pristina—in mid-November point to an improving political situation following three months of gridlock earlier this year.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Economic momentum is expected to persist next year as GDP growth remains buttressed by strong remittance inflows and a recovery in the external sector. A relatively low ratio of non-performing loans and solid lending growth should also support the private sector, while the government’s economic program envisages robust investment spending. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 4.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2019, our panel sees growth of 4.1%.

Kosovo Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,5573,8093,9833,578-  
GDP per capita (EUR)2,8032,9303,0703,211-  
GDP (USD bn)6.46.97.26.4-  
GDP (EUR bn)5.15.35.65.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.41.24.03.4
Unemployment Rate30.930.035.3-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-3.1-2.6-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)15.916.216.719.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.51.80.4-0.50.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.5-6.5-7.8-9.1-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.5-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.2-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.5
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.3
Imports (USD billion)3.23.23.52.93.1
Imports (EUR billion)2.52.42.52.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.56.510.50.0-4.6
Imports (annual variation in %)0.6-2.43.63.85.8
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.70.60.70.7

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.250.0 %Aug 31
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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