Kosovo Economic Outlook
September 8, 2020
After economic growth slowed to a near six-year low in Q1, the impact of Covid-19 and associated containment measures will have likely further impeded activity in Q2. New consumer loans collapsed by over half in the quarter compared to a year earlier and new business loans dwindled, likely weighing on household and capital spending. However, private consumption should have been boosted by sturdy growth in remittances in May–June, especially a surge of inflows in May. In addition, merchandise exports performed notably well in the quarter despite weakness in key trading partners, specifically the EU. Turning to Q3, available data paints a mixed picture. Merchandise exports fell in July, but remittances grew by nearly a quarter year-on-year. Meanwhile, the reintroduction of some restrictions in late July bodes ill for the economy in Q3.Kosovo Economic Growth
The economy is expected to contract markedly this year as the health crisis and related containment measures weigh heavily on domestic and foreign demand, particularly from key trading partners. The lingering uncertainty and gloomy outlook should hamper both domestic fixed investment and the inflow of foreign funds. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy contracting 5.0% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection. Our panelists see the economy growing 6.0% in 2021.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,577 | 3,698 | 3,959 | 4,305 | 4,293 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 3,223 | 3,342 | 3,504 | 3,645 | 3,835 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 13.1 | 14.4 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 17.5 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.5 | -7.9 | -5.2 | -7.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.9 | -0.4 | 4.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 2.1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.74 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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