Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

The economy likely had a solid performance in the third quarter, primarily driven by robust fixed investment spending on infrastructure and solid private consumption, thanks to higher remittances, tourism and wage growth. Kosovo had less success in the diplomatic arena, however, and failed to garner enough votes in its third bid for membership to INTERPOL, the international police organization. In retaliation to Serbia’s campaign against its membership, Kosovo slapped 100% tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian imports on 21 November, violating the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and further inflaming tensions. The rejection underscores Kosovo’s ongoing struggle for international recognition and the lack of progress in alleviating tensions with Serbia, which impedes both Kosovo and Serbia’s accession to the EU.

Kosovo Economic Growth

The economic outlook for 2019 remains promising thanks to Kosovo’s broadening domestic economy. A weaker fiscal position coupled with a wide current account balance pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8084,2053,6003,7243,932
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9303,0713,2313,3523,479
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate30.035.332.927.530.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.4-1.8-1.2-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.910.512.914.015.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-7.4-9.0-  -  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.7
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.8
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.917.3
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.70.9

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.850.0 %Oct 31
Exchange Rate1.140.65 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.20.0 %Nov 26

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