Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

Following a moderation in growth in the fourth quarter of 2021, activity likely continued to ease in the first quarter of this year. Growth in remittances slowed notably on average in the first two months of the period, while consumer loans increased at a softer pace in the quarter as a whole. This, coupled with skyrocketing consumer price inflation exacerbated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, will have weighed on household consumption in the period. More positively, goods exports rebounded strongly in the quarter, chiefly due to a jump in merchandise exports in March. In other news, the government approved a law increasing the gross minimum wage to EUR 264 per month. People aged over 35 will see a 55.0% increase in their wages, while people under the age of 35 will receive a 103.0% bump.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Growth in the economy is set to slow markedly this year due to a less favorable base effect and the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The war has stoked energy prices, eating into consumers’ pockets, and sanctions on Russia will impact the tourism sector. Furthermore, pandemic-related uncertainty and a potential flare-up in tensions with Serbia cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 3.7% in 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2023.

Kosovo Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,5773,6983,9594,3054,293
GDP per capita (EUR)3,2233,3423,5043,6453,835
GDP (USD bn)6.46.77.27.97.9
GDP (EUR bn)5.86.16.46.77.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.14.14.23.84.2
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.6-1.1-1.1-2.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)13.114.416.216.917.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.50.31.51.12.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.5-7.9-5.2-7.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.5-0.5-0.3-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.1-2.3-2.5-2.7-2.8
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.40.40.4
Imports (USD billion)2.93.13.53.94.0
Imports (EUR billion)2.42.62.83.13.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.6-4.522.9-0.44.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.16.99.49.63.8
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.80.9

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Kosovo Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield4.740.0 %Nov 30
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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