Kosovo Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019
The economy accelerated in the first quarter according to recent data. Private consumption gained steam, likely supported by a marked fall in the unemployment rate relative to the final quarter of last year, while government spending growth picked up. In less positive news, investment growth—while robust—was the weakest in over one year, potentially weighed on by the escalation of tensions with Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in late 2018. Moreover, the external sector weakened, with export growth slowing and imports accelerating. In other news, the IMF concluded a staff visit in mid-June. While noting that growth is solid, the Fund warned that public wage hikes could put pressure on the fiscal position and also urged the government to carry out structural reforms.Kosovo Economic Growth
Growth should gain impetus this year, driven by upbeat investment and private consumption despite elevated unemployment. That said, political rifts with neighbors will weigh on the external sector and a proposed large minimum wage hike—while it could support domestic demand in the near-term—could erode competitiveness. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,796 | 4,184 | 3,591 | 3,713 | 3,875 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 2,920 | 3,056 | 3,223 | 3,342 | 3,432 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.9 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 1.3 | 0.9 | -1.6 | -0.3 | -1.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 8.9 | 10.7 | 13.1 | 14.4 | 16.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -3.5 | -6.6 | -8.5 | -7.9 | -6.3 |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 11.3 | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 9.4 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.07 | 0.0 % | May 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.13 | 0.65 % | Jul 11 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jul 11 |
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