Kosovo Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018
The economy likely had a solid performance in the third quarter, primarily driven by robust fixed investment spending on infrastructure and solid private consumption, thanks to higher remittances, tourism and wage growth. Kosovo had less success in the diplomatic arena, however, and failed to garner enough votes in its third bid for membership to INTERPOL, the international police organization. In retaliation to Serbia’s campaign against its membership, Kosovo slapped 100% tariffs on Serbian and Bosnian imports on 21 November, violating the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA) and further inflaming tensions. The rejection underscores Kosovo’s ongoing struggle for international recognition and the lack of progress in alleviating tensions with Serbia, which impedes both Kosovo and Serbia’s accession to the EU.Kosovo Economic Growth
The economic outlook for 2019 remains promising thanks to Kosovo’s broadening domestic economy. A weaker fiscal position coupled with a wide current account balance pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.2% in 2019, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,808 | 4,205 | 3,600 | 3,724 | 3,932 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 2,930 | 3,071 | 3,231 | 3,352 | 3,479 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.9 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | 30.0 | 35.3 | 32.9 | 27.5 | 30.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -1.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 8.9 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 15.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.5 | -7.4 | -9.0 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 11.3 | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.8 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 17.3 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.85 | 0.0 % | Oct 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.14 | 0.65 % | Dec 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.2 | 0.0 % | Nov 26 |
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