Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

The economy likely maintained a steady course of growth in the last quarter, following a solid 4.4% expansion in the third quarter. Double-digit growth in remittances and solid FDI inflows up to November, solid export growth in the October-to-December period and healthy credit growth to both firms and households all paint a bright picture of the economy in Q4. In the political arena, the government submitted in late January the Economic Reform Program to the EU Special Representative in Kosovo. The program identifies concrete measures for structural reforms in nine priority areas to be implemented by 2020, and its fulfilment is a key requirement for the country’s accession to the EU.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Economic growth will benefit this year from ample infrastructure and energy investment, solid remittance inflows and a strengthening external sector. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growth of 4.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. For 2019, our panel also sees growth of 4.1%.

Kosovo Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,5573,8093,9833,578-  
GDP per capita (EUR)2,8032,9303,0703,211-  
GDP (USD bn)6.46.97.26.4-  
GDP (EUR bn)5.15.35.65.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.41.24.03.4
Unemployment Rate30.930.035.3-  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.6-3.1-2.6-1.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)15.916.216.719.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.51.80.4-0.50.3
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.5-6.5-7.8-9.1-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.5-  
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.2-2.2-2.2-2.3-2.5
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.3
Imports (USD billion)3.23.23.52.93.1
Imports (EUR billion)2.52.42.52.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-13.56.510.50.0-4.6
Imports (annual variation in %)0.6-2.43.63.85.8
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.70.60.70.7

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield4.930.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.240.65 %Feb 14
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 14

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