Kosovo Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019
Economic growth in Q4 2018 was robust, and picked up from Q3. The acceleration was mainly driven by a rebound in government spending and exports, which more than offset notably softer growth in investment and household consumption. Moving to Q1 2019, the external sector appeared to soften, with merchandise export growth averaging lower than in the quarter prior amid a synchronized slowdown in the Eurozone. In politics, on 29 April the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia met at a summit to resolve the ongoing political spat. While dialogue between the two nations has now resumed, a definitive deal is unlikely any time soon, which is essential for EU accession for both parties.Kosovo Economic Growth
Economic growth is projected to strengthen slightly this year, driven by strong investment, healthy remittances and an improving external sector. Elevated unemployment poses a downside risk, while political rifts with neighbors remain a key barrier to EU candidacy and could stunt investor confidence. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,808 | 4,205 | 3,600 | 3,724 | 3,932 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 2,930 | 3,071 | 3,231 | 3,352 | 3,479 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.9 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -1.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 8.9 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 15.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.5 | -7.4 | -9.0 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 11.3 | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.8 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 17.3 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.51 | 0.0 % | Mar 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | May 13 |
| Stock Market | 0.2 | 0.0 % | Nov 26 |
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