Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

November 26, 2019

Economic growth seems to have firmed up in the third quarter, after moderating in the second quarter due to softer domestic demand. Consumer loans growth rebounded strongly in Q3, while remittances growth accelerated in July–August, boding well for household consumption in the quarter. On the other hand, the merchandise trade deficit widened somewhat in the three months ending in September, despite robust export growth. Meanwhile, in the political arena, the country’s electoral authority called for a large-scale recount of votes and invalidated a number of votes submitted from Serbia. Although the Supreme Court overruled the decision regarding Serbian votes, the recount could lead to a larger coalition than initially expected.

Kosovo Economic Growth

The economy is expected to cool next year as momentum in Europe wanes and weighs on inbound tourism and exports. Delays in forming a new government further cloud the outlook, delaying public expenditure and much-needed reforms to stimulate private-sector activity. Regional political tensions also weigh on prospects. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 3.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and again 3.7% in 2021.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,7964,1843,5913,7133,875
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9203,0563,2233,3423,432
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.3-1.6-1.1-1.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.910.713.114.416.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-6.6-8.5-7.9-6.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.5
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.99.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.60.7

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.100.0 %Sep 30
Exchange Rate1.110.65 %Nov 21
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 21

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