Kosovo Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
The economy likely remained in a tough spot in the third quarter, following a sharp GDP contraction in the second. Rising coronavirus cases pushed the government to reintroduce some restrictive measures in early July, which likely weighed on activity throughout Q3. Merchandise exports in value terms contracted in the period, while merchandise imports grew only marginally, suggesting that domestic demand remained downbeat. More positively, however, consumer loans grew at a rapid pace in the quarter, while remittance inflows gained traction in July–August. This, coupled with falling prices, will have buttressed household spending. Meanwhile, some restrictive measures were softened in late September as the number of new cases eased, which should support activity in the final quarter of the year.Kosovo Economic Growth
The economy will suffer a steep contraction this year due to the pandemic, but it is forecast to recover markedly next year. The reopening of the economy should unleash pent-up spending and capital outlays. Moreover, strengthening foreign demand should buttress the external sector. That said, the outlook remains clouded by possible further waves of Covid-19 cases. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.8% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2022.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,577 | 3,698 | 3,959 | 4,305 | 4,293 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 3,223 | 3,342 | 3,504 | 3,645 | 3,835 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 7.9 | 7.9 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.2 |
| Unemployment Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.6 | -1.1 | -1.1 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 13.1 | 14.4 | 16.2 | 16.9 | 17.5 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 2.7 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -8.5 | -7.9 | -5.2 | -7.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.5 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 4.0 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.9 | -0.4 | 4.4 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 2.1 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 4.74 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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