Kosovo Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
Recently-released data suggests economic prospects improved in the final quarter of 2018. Robust total investment was likely the main driver of growth in Q4, supported by stronger government investment, increased credit growth and strong FDI inflows. Moreover, rising wages and remittances point to solid, albeit softer, consumer spending. On the political front, Kosovo’s parliament adopted the 2019 state budget in February, while official talks with Serbia appear to be gradually progressing, with both sides hoping for a final agreement this year. An agreement is needed for both countries to be considered for EU accession.Kosovo Economic Growth
The outlook for this year remains favorable. Sustained momentum will likely be powered by robust investment. However, persistent political disputes with neighboring countries could hamper investor confidence, aggravate trade tensions, and impede progress towards EU candidacy. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2020.Kosovo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 3,808 | 4,205 | 3,600 | 3,724 | 3,932 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 2,930 | 3,071 | 3,231 | 3,352 | 3,479 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 6.9 | 7.6 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 7.1 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 5.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 6.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 1.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 3.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.1 | -2.4 | -1.8 | -1.2 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 8.9 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 14.0 | 15.9 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.8 | 0.4 | -0.5 | 0.3 | 1.5 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -6.5 | -7.4 | -9.0 | - | - |
| Current Account Balance (EUR bn) | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Trade Balance (EUR billion) | -2.0 | -2.1 | -2.1 | -2.3 | -2.7 |
| Exports (EUR billion) | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.5 |
| Imports (EUR billion) | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 3.4 | 11.3 | -0.6 | -4.5 | 22.8 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -1.9 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 6.9 | 17.3 |
| International Reserves (EUR) | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
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Kosovo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.57 | 0.0 % | Jan 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.12 | 0.65 % | Mar 11 |
| Stock Market | 0.2 | 0.0 % | Nov 26 |
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