Kosovo Economic Forecast

Kosovo Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

The economy accelerated in the first quarter according to recent data. Private consumption gained steam, likely supported by a marked fall in the unemployment rate relative to the final quarter of last year, while government spending growth picked up. In less positive news, investment growth—while robust—was the weakest in over one year, potentially weighed on by the escalation of tensions with Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina in late 2018. Moreover, the external sector weakened, with export growth slowing and imports accelerating. In other news, the IMF concluded a staff visit in mid-June. While noting that growth is solid, the Fund warned that public wage hikes could put pressure on the fiscal position and also urged the government to carry out structural reforms.

Kosovo Economic Growth

Growth should gain impetus this year, driven by upbeat investment and private consumption despite elevated unemployment. That said, political rifts with neighbors will weigh on the external sector and a proposed large minimum wage hike—while it could support domestic demand in the near-term—could erode competitiveness. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 4.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2020.

Kosovo Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)1.81.81.81.81.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,7964,1843,5913,7133,875
GDP per capita (EUR)2,9203,0563,2233,3423,432
GDP (USD bn)6.97.66.56.77.1
GDP (EUR bn)5.35.65.86.16.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.41.24.14.13.7
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.30.9-1.6-0.3-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.910.713.114.416.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.80.4-0.50.31.5
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.5-6.6-8.5-7.9-6.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-2.0-2.1-2.1-2.3-2.5
Exports (EUR billion)0.30.30.30.30.4
Imports (USD billion)3.23.52.93.13.5
Imports (EUR billion)2.32.42.42.62.8
Exports (annual variation in %)3.411.3-0.6-4.522.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.94.22.16.99.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.70.60.70.60.7

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Kosovo Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield5.070.0 %May 31
Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jul 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 11

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