India Inflation October 2018

India

India: Inflation moderates in October

November 12, 2018

In October, consumer prices rose 0.29% from the previous month, contrasting the 0.07% fall in September. Higher prices for pan, tobacco and intoxicants; housing; and fuel and light all contributed to the uptick in October, whereas lower prices for food and beverages, and clothing and footwear had the opposite effect.

Inflation moderated to 3.3% in October, down from 3.8% in September and below market analysts’ expectations of 3.6%. This was primarily because prices for food and beverages declined. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy products, ticked up to 6.1% in October from 5.8% in September.

In October, the WPI rose 0.75% from the prior month, up from a revised 0.58% in September (previously reported: +0.67% month-on-month). October’s reading was primarily due to more expensive fuel and power. Wholesale price inflation accelerated slightly to 5.3% in October from 5.1% in September. Annual average wholesale inflation accelerated to 4.2% in October from 4.1% in September.

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect consumer price inflation to average 4.7% in FY 2018, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In FY 2019, the panel expects consumer price inflation to average 4.7%. Meanwhile, our panel projects wholesale inflation of 4.2% for FY 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s report. In FY 2019, our panel foresees wholesale inflation averaging 4.1%.


Author:, Economist

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India Inflation October 2018

Note: Annual and monthly variation of wholesale price index (WPI) and annual variation of consumer price index (CPI) in %.
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry and FocusEconomics calculations.


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