Hungary Industry May 2021

Hungary

Hungary: Industrial production continues to surge on low base effect in May

July 7, 2021

Industrial output skyrocketed 40.2% year-on-year in May (April: +59.2% yoy), partly as it continued to benefit from an extremely low base effect, according to a preliminary estimate.

On a monthly basis, industrial output rebounded and increased 3.4% in seasonally-adjusted terms in May, contrasting April’s 3.2% drop. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with the annual average growth in industrial production coming in at 8.5% in May, from 2.8% in April.

Commenting on the release, Peter Virovacz, Hungary senior economist at ING, stated:

“Over the coming months, year-on-year indices will slowly normalise as the base itself rises. However, we continue to put emphasis on the monthly growth numbers. Based on these, we expect sustained but rather moderate growth until the problems with supply chains and difficulties in sourcing raw and intermediate products are resolved. In the meantime, growing global demand is expected to further expand order books, but due to the scarcity of inputs (whether it is about materials or labour), we can expect longer delivery times.”

FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project industrial output to increase 7.4% in 2021, which is up 0.6 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2022, the panel projects industrial output to expand 4.8%.


Author: Massimo Bassetti, Senior Economist

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Hungary Industry May 2021

Note: Year-on-year changes and annual average variation of industrial production index in %.
Source: Hungarian Central Statistics Office and FocusEconomics calculations.


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