Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

January 15, 2019

Economic growth slowed to a one-year low in the third quarter on the back of a significant contraction in fixed investment. In more positive news, private consumption remained resilient and public consumption increased. Meanwhile, the external sector made a greater contribution to economic growth after export growth picked up and import growth eased markedly. Turning to the fourth quarter, economic activity increased quickly in both October and November. Both months saw noticeably strong growth in the transport and storage, industry and manufacturing, and financial sectors.

Honduras Economic Growth

Robust private consumption and resilient fixed investment growth are expected to drive the economy this year. The ending of Hondurans’ temporary protected status in the U.S. next year remains a significant downside risk, however. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.

Honduras Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)7.88.08.18.28.3
GDP per capita (USD)2,3542,4622,5802,6472,774
GDP (USD bn)18.519.620.821.723.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.13.83.84.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.71.73.64.34.3
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.90.612.3-6.87.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.9-4.3-3.0-2.8-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.513.18.112.912.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.95.82.43.34.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.26.13.22.73.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.2820.65-  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)20.5921.6322.4523.1823.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.3821.1322.1022.8023.42
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.7-7.1-4.8-2.8-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.4-1.0-0.6-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.9-2.6-2.6
Exports (USD billion)7.88.18.27.98.7
Imports (USD billion)11.011.111.210.611.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-6.64.01.3-3.59.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.71.20.8-5.57.2
International Reserves (USD)3.13.43.73.84.7
External Debt (% of GDP)36.336.635.834.537.3

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate24.29-0.03 %Jan 30

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