Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

Honduras’s worst political crisis in nearly a decade erupted following the disputed 26 November general elections in which both the ruling National party and the Opposition Against Dictatorship (OAP) alliance claimed victory. Irregularities surrounding the ballot count—the opposition’s strong early lead was eroded after officials slowed the count—led the OAP’s Salvador Nasralla to declare the vote as stolen by incumbent Juan Orlando Hernández. A 10-day curfew was enforced in the aftermath of the vote as protest-related violence erupted nationwide. Moreover, the unfolding crisis, which is likely to drag on economic activity and foreign investment, came just as leading data from Q3 suggested GDP growth was robust in the quarter, while remittances through October were strong.

Honduras Economic Growth

Recent political events notwithstanding, a buoyant U.S. economy and the continued recovery of the agricultural sector are expected to support household spending next year, propelling GDP growth. That said, uncertainty over the direction of U.S. immigration policy is weighing on the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP growth to reach 3.7% next year, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.6% in 2019.

Honduras Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.77.88.08.18.2
GDP per capita (USD)2,3912,3542,4342,5632,631
GDP (USD bn)18.518.519.420.721.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.83.13.63.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.03.72.13.14.1
Investment (annual variation in %)3.7-1.9-1.423.5-5.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-7.9-4.4-3.3-2.8
Money (annual variation in %)7.08.513.1-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.95.82.43.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.26.23.22.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)19.2520.2820.65-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.9620.5921.6322.4523.18
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)19.5420.3821.1322.1022.80
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.5-9.5-7.5-5.5-3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.1-3.0-3.0-2.7
Exports (USD billion)8.47.88.18.17.8
Imports (USD billion)11.411.011.111.110.6
Exports (annual variation in %)4.8-6.63.40.0-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.2-3.71.10.1-4.8
International Reserves (USD)2.63.13.43.73.8
External Debt (% of GDP)26.336.337.036.034.7

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate23.54-0.03 %Dec 06

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