Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

Incumbent Juan Orlando Hernández was sworn in as president on 27 January amid widespread protests and clashes with police. Demonstrators insist that Hernández stole the 26 November election when he won the vote by a slim margin against Opposition Alliance candidate Salvador Nasralla. He had previously trailed by five percentage points—a statistically improbable comeback that followed voting irregularities. Reactions were mixed; U.S. leaders congratulated the president, while the Organization of American States called for new elections. Furthermore, the political crisis threatens to upend the economy’s recent growth streak, which most recently notched strong export-led economic growth in the third quarter—economic activity slowed to a 10-month low in November.

Honduras Economic Growth

Strong U.S. remittances, along with an upbeat agricultural sector, should support household spending this year. Moreover, agricultural and manufacturing exports should remain robust. That said, investor confidence has been shaken in recent months, and the direction of U.S. immigration policy is weighing on the outlook. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 3.7% in 2018, unchanged from last month, and 3.8% in 2019.

Honduras Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)7.77.88.08.18.2
GDP per capita (USD)2,3912,3542,4342,5632,631
GDP (USD bn)18.518.519.420.721.6
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.12.83.13.63.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.03.72.13.14.1
Investment (annual variation in %)3.7-1.9-1.423.5-5.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.2-7.9-4.4-3.3-2.8
Money (annual variation in %)7.08.513.1-  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.44.95.82.43.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.25.26.23.22.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)19.2520.2820.65-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.9620.5921.6322.4523.18
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)19.5420.3821.1322.1022.80
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.5-9.5-7.5-5.5-3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.6-1.8-1.4-1.1-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.0-3.1-3.0-3.0-2.7
Exports (USD billion)8.47.88.18.17.8
Imports (USD billion)11.411.011.111.110.6
Exports (annual variation in %)4.8-6.63.40.0-3.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.2-3.71.10.1-4.8
International Reserves (USD)2.63.13.43.73.8
External Debt (% of GDP)26.336.337.036.034.7

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Honduras Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate23.49-0.03 %Feb 20

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