Honduras Economic Outlook
June 11, 2019Despite picking up in March on a rebound in the agricultural sector, the economic activity index averaged markedly lower in the first quarter compared to the prior quarter, suggesting a noticeable moderation in economic growth in the opening quarter of 2019. The external sector was likely a larger drag on the economy in Q1 as reflected by the year-on-year widening of the trade deficit owing to a sharp drop in exports. Meanwhile, in the political arena, violent protests erupted at the end of May with demonstrators demanding President Juan Hernandez’s resignation. Social unrest, which is centered around fears that the education and health sectors will be privatized, continued through early June, despite the repeal of the reform bills on 2 June. This suggests protests could well constrain the administration going forward.
Honduras Economic GrowthThe outlook for this year remains favorable and strong domestic demand should continue to support growth. However, the outlook is clouded by fluctuations in commodity prices, uncertain U.S. foreign policy regarding development funding and the potential termination of Hondurans’ temporary protected status (TPS) in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.6% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Honduras Economy Data
5 years of Honduras economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||24.46||-0.03 %||Jun 13|
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