Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

The economy is set to have contracted again in Q3. In August, economic activity fell for the sixth month running, albeit at the softest pace since the crisis began in March, on the back of declining activity in the mining and quarrying, hotels and restaurants, construction, and transport and storage sectors. Moreover, in July–August, merchandise imports continued to fall and private-sector credit growth softened—easing to an over nine-year low in August—pointing to weakened domestic demand. Turning to Q4, prospects remain grim amid a worldwide surge in new Covid-19 cases and a still-elevated number of new cases domestically. Meanwhile, on 30 October, the government reached an agreement with the IMF on the third review of the Fund’s Stand-by Arrangement and Stand-by Credit Facility. Consequently, around USD 88 million will be disbursed to support the government’s economic policies.

Honduras Economic Growth

After the Covid-19-induced downturn this year, the economy is expected to rebound strongly next year as domestic and foreign demand gain traction amid the reopening of economies. However, this will be partly due to a supportive base effect. Moreover, the balance of risks remains tilted to the downside amid lingering uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 4.9% in 2021, which is up 1.5 percentage points from last month, before growing 3.8% in 2022.

Honduras Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.09.19.39.49.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,3792,3962,5022,5532,621
GDP (USD bn)21.321.823.224.125.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.94.83.72.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.64.14.14.33.6
Investment (annual variation in %)22.4-5.211.84.3-15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.7-2.7-2.1-2.5
Money (annual variation in %)7.815.812.87.411.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.43.34.74.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.73.94.34.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.0218.7918.2417.43-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22.0823.2023.5424.2724.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.6022.7123.4223.8524.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.6-2.6-0.8-5.3-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-0.6-0.2-1.3-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.9-2.6-2.7-3.7-3.2
Exports (USD billion)8.28.08.78.68.7
Imports (USD billion)11.210.611.412.311.9
Exports (annual variation in %)1.3-3.29.3-1.11.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.8-5.58.07.9-3.3
International Reserves (USD)3.83.84.74.85.7
External Debt (% of GDP)35.034.336.937.437.8

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Honduras Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate24.59-0.03 %Jan 01

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