Honduras Economic Outlook
March 12, 2019The economy should have accelerated in Q4 2018, powered by private sector activity as reflected by the monthly economic activity index for October–November. However, the external sector likely dragged on economic growth. Monthly data suggests the trade deficit increased by nearly a fifth in 2018, partly due to a drop in coffee prices and a higher import bill. Looking at Q1 2019, data paints a mixed picture. Coffee prices remained low and dropped sharply in late-February, which bodes ill for the external sector’s performance. In contract, family remittances grew strongly in year-on-year terms in January.
Honduras Economic GrowthThe economy should continue growing robustly this year, driven by resilient domestic demand. However, commodity price volatility present a downside risk to the outlook. The ending of Hondurans’ TPS in the U.S.—scheduled for 2020—could dampen remittances inflows next year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy growing 3.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2020.
Honduras Economy Data
5 years of Honduras economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||24.37||-0.03 %||Mar 11|
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