Honduras Economic Outlook

December 4, 2018

Economic activity slowed fractionally in September, partially due a high base effect, as the financial and manufacturing sectors drove growth. Moreover, the average reading of the index in the third quarter was noticeably below the reading in the second quarter, suggesting the economy lost some speed in Q3. More positively, the IMF commended the government’s fiscal responsibility in a recent staff visit and noted that negotiations on a possible financial arrangement continue.

Honduras Economic Growth

Economic growth next year is expected to be buttressed by robust private consumption and fixed investment growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to grow 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before decelerating to 3.5% in 2020. The ending of Hondurans’ TPS in the U.S. in 2020 would significantly dent remittances inflows and clouds the longer-term outlook.

Honduras Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	7.8	8.0	8.1	8.2	8.3
GDP per capita (USD)	2,354	2,462	2,580	2,647	2,774
GDP (USD bn)	18.5	19.6	20.8	21.7	23.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.8	3.1	3.8	3.8	4.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.7	1.7	3.6	4.3	4.3
Investment (annual variation in %)	-1.9	0.6	12.3	-6.8	7.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.9	-4.3	-3.0	-2.8	-2.7
Money (annual variation in %)	8.5	13.1	8.1	12.9	12.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.9	5.8	2.4	3.3	4.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.2	6.1	3.2	2.7	3.9
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	20.28	20.65	-	-	-
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	20.59	21.63	22.45	23.18	23.54
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	20.38	21.13	22.10	22.80	23.42
Current Account (% of GDP)	-9.7	-7.1	-4.8	-2.8	-1.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.8	-1.4	-1.0	-0.6	-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.1	-3.0	-2.9	-2.6	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	7.8	8.1	8.2	7.9	8.7
Imports (USD billion)	11.0	11.1	11.2	10.6	11.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	-6.6	4.0	1.3	-3.5	9.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	-3.7	1.2	0.8	-5.5	7.2
International Reserves (USD)	3.1	3.4	3.7	3.8	4.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	36.3	36.6	35.8	34.5	37.3

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Honduras Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	24.28	-0.03 %	Dec 10

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