Honduras Economic Forecast

Honduras Economic Outlook

April 12, 2022

Economic growth moderated to 11.4% year on year in Q4, from 13.0% in Q3. The slight deceleration was driven by a significant reduction in capital outlays growth and cooling private and public consumption. Moreover, price pressures rose in the quarter and ate into consumers’ pockets, weighing on spending. A wider goods trade deficit also dragged on the headline reading. Turning to this year, economic growth likely continued to cool in the first quarter. The Central Bank’s monthly activity index came in at an 11-month low in January, while inflation continued to climb through February, reaching an over seven-year high. More positively, private-sector credit growth accelerated in January and the merchandise trade deficit narrowed in the same month.

Honduras Economic Growth

The economy will grow at a reduced speed this year, partly due to a statistical effect. That said, softer restrictions on daily life should support foreign and domestic demand in addition to normalizing economic conditions. Solid remittance inflows will further support household spending. A relatively low domestic Covid-19 vaccination rate clouds the outlook, however. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see the economy expanding 3.9% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growing 3.5% in 2023.

Honduras Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)9.09.19.39.49.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,3792,3962,5022,5532,621
GDP (USD bn)21.321.823.224.125.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.83.94.83.72.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.64.14.14.33.6
Investment (annual variation in %)22.4-5.211.84.3-15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.0-2.7-2.7-2.1-2.5
Money (annual variation in %)7.815.812.87.411.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.43.34.74.14.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.22.73.94.34.4
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)20.0218.7918.2417.43-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)22.0823.2023.5424.2724.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)21.6022.7123.4223.8524.46
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.6-2.6-0.8-5.3-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-0.6-0.2-1.3-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.9-2.6-2.7-3.7-3.2
Exports (USD billion)8.28.08.78.68.7
Imports (USD billion)11.210.611.412.311.9
Exports (annual variation in %)1.3-3.29.3-1.11.2
Imports (annual variation in %)0.8-5.58.07.9-3.3
International Reserves (USD)3.83.84.74.85.7
External Debt (% of GDP)35.034.336.937.437.8

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Honduras Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate24.59-0.03 %Jan 01

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