Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

The economy grew 4.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, a slight moderation from the second quarter (+4.7% yoy), but nevertheless a robust figure. Growth accelerated from August to September in annual terms, led by expansions in the tourism, manufacturing, trade and construction sectors. In Q3, exports surged by around a fourth in annual terms, on the back of solid demand from the EU and soaring overseas orders from CIS countries. The positive trend in exports continued in October: Exports increased almost 40% in annual terms, strongly outpacing imports and leading the trade deficit for the January-to-October period to narrow compared to the same period in 2016.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth will likely be robust next year, as improved economic conditions in Georgia’s main trading partners boost the external sector, strong inflows of FDI support investment, and private consumption benefits from weaker inflation. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will grow 4.3% in 2018, which is 0.1 percentage points up from last month’s forecast, and 4.4% in 2019.

Georgia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.83.83.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,1524,2984,4293,8023,934
GDP per capita (EUR)3,2723,3073,2353,4133,541
GDP (USD bn)15.916.316.514.114.6
GDP (EUR bn)12.612.512.112.713.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.43.44.62.92.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-1.1-2.0-0.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.834.735.641.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.633.29.1-2.512.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.9-0.53.14.02.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.253.754.008.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.741.882.402.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.651.661.762.272.37
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.192.392.282.612.81
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.122.212.342.522.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.0-6.3-11.2-12.6-13.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.0-1.9-1.8-2.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-3.5-4.3-3.9-3.9
Exports (USD billion)3.54.24.13.12.9
Imports (USD billion)7.77.78.37.06.8
Exports (annual variation in %)7.621.2-4.1-23.9-5.2
Imports (annual variation in %)14.40.37.8-15.7-3.3
International Reserves (USD)2.72.62.52.32.6
External Debt (% of GDP)83.481.783.8107106

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.700.0 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.50.55 %Dec 06

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