Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

Growth moderated to 4.5% annually in Q2, from Q1’s 4.9%, according to revised national accounts data. A marked downturn in the industrial sector chiefly drove the slowdown. Output in both the manufacturing, and mining and quarrying sub-sectors fell at a sharper pace in Q2, while construction activity continued to contract in the quarter, although at a milder pace than in Q1. That said, wholesale and retail trade activity picked up in Q2, cushioning the overall slowdown and pointing to strong consumer demand as well as an improving business environment. Turning to Q3, growth appears to have bounced back: Merchandise exports soared in July–August, while economic activity growth jumped to a nine-month high in July. That said, the ongoing political standoff with Russia will have limited Q3’s upturn.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth will slow somewhat this year, although it should remain healthy, largely thanks to buoyant household spending growth. Next year, growth is seen broadly stable, supported by accelerating investment activity and private consumption. That said, high levels of public and private debt, and heightened geopolitical tensions remain major concerns for the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.6% in 2019 and 4.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.73.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,3414,4413,7583,8564,049
GDP per capita (EUR)-33,392.4-2,921.8-1,429.0-1,801.71,345
GDP (USD bn)16.116.514.014.415.1
GDP (EUR bn)-124.2-10.9-5.3-6.75.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-3.2-3.7-4.0-3.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.445.1
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.402.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.9-10.8-12.6-13.1-8.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.8-1.8-1.9-1.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.5-4.3-4.0-3.9-3.8
Exports (USD billion)4.24.03.02.93.6
Imports (USD billion)7.78.37.06.77.4
Exports (annual variation in %)21.2-4.7-24.4-5.224.6
Imports (annual variation in %)0.27.6-15.8-3.29.3
International Reserves (USD)2.82.72.52.83.0
External Debt (% of GDP)83.284.7109110115

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.960.0 %Sep 04
Stock Market0.10.55 %Sep 04

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