Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

A fading base effect and the reintroduction of some lockdown measures dampened recovery momentum in the third quarter, with GDP growth falling back to single digits following the strongest expansion in nearly a decade in Q2. That said, after steadying in October, economic activity picked up steam in November, supported by strong growth in the manufacturing, transportation, trade and hospitality sectors, which more than offset a decline in construction activity. Less positively, a high number of new Covid-19 cases amid a flagging vaccination campaign likely kept a lid on growth in the final quarter of 2021. In other news, on 17 December, parliament approved the state budget for 2022, with the government’s debt limit fixed at 51.1% of GDP and the consolidated budget deficit set at 4.2%.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth should remain upbeat in 2022, due to sturdy private consumption growth and stronger investment activity. Moreover, recovering tourist inflows and healthier foreign demand bode well for the external sector. That said, new Covid-19 variants, domestic political instability and regional geopolitical uncertainty are major downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 5.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.0% in 2023.

Georgia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.73.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,0164,0614,3614,7184,767
GDP per capita (EUR)3,6183,6683,8663,9994,275
GDP (USD bn)14.915.116.217.617.7
GDP (EUR bn)13.513.714.414.915.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.02.94.84.85.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.2-1.5-0.5-0.8-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.840.339.939.941.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-3.814.827.915.9-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.02.16.02.64.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.006.507.257.009.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.402.662.592.682.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)2.272.372.512.532.82
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.612.813.103.063.21
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.522.622.832.993.15
Current Account (% of GDP)-11.8-12.5-8.1-6.8-5.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.9-1.3-1.2-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.0-3.9-3.8-4.1-3.7
Exports (USD billion)3.02.93.64.44.9
Imports (USD billion)7.06.77.48.58.7
Exports (annual variation in %)-24.4-5.224.623.412.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.29.415.51.9
International Reserves (USD)2.52.83.03.33.5
External Debt (% of GDP)102105107101105

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Georgia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.860.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.55 %Jan 07

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