Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

February 11, 2020

Available data indicates that growth lost some pace in the final quarter of 2019, after it picked up to an over one-year high in the previous quarter on a buoyant wholesale and retail trade sector. Economic activity eased sharply in December, expanding at the softest pace in 11 months amid a decline in construction output, which brought average growth in Q4 well below that of Q3. In addition, although remittance inflows quickened in Q4—with those from Italy, Greece and the U.S. more than offsetting a sharp decline from Russia—increased price pressures amid a depreciating currency likely took a toll on household consumption. On a brighter note, stronger growth in merchandise exports in Q4 might have lent support to overall activity.

Georgia Economic Growth

Although growth is seen losing stride this year, it should remain solid, buttressed in large part by sturdy household spending. Business sentiment and thus investment may weaken, however, in the run-up to parliamentary elections later in the year. A still-large current account deficit and the sizeable stock of foreign-currency denominated debt also dampen the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 4.5% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points last month’s forecast, and 4.5% again in 2021.

Georgia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)3.73.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,4414,0164,0614,3614,718
GDP per capita (EUR)-2,921.83,6183,6683,8663,999
GDP (USD bn)16.514.915.116.217.6
GDP (EUR bn)-10.913.513.714.414.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.02.94.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.2-1.0-1.3-0.8-0.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.641.444.445.144.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)9.1-2.512.929.416.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.14.02.16.02.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.008.006.507.257.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.882.402.662.592.68
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.762.272.372.512.53
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.282.612.813.103.06
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.342.522.622.832.99
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.8-11.8-12.5-8.1-6.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-1.8-1.9-1.3-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.3-4.0-3.9-3.8-4.1
Exports (USD billion)4.03.02.93.64.4
Imports (USD billion)8.37.06.77.48.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.7-24.4-5.224.623.4
Imports (annual variation in %)7.6-15.8-3.29.415.5
International Reserves (USD)2.72.52.83.03.3
External Debt (% of GDP)84.7102105107101

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Georgia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate2.860.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.55 %Jan 07

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