Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

A flash estimate of GDP revealed that the economy accelerated in the fourth quarter, clocking a robust 4.7% expansion over the same period of the previous year, and bringing full-year growth to 4.8% in 2017. Buoyant export growth likely supported the economy’s momentum last year, while recent figures revealed that foreign direct investment rose strongly in Q3. Moreover, the Central Bank stated in January that the current account deficit improved significantly last year, although the official figures are still outstanding. At the start of the new year, the country’s outlook is bright. Exports are expected to continue to prop up growth after a free trade agreement with China took effect at the start of January. Over 90% of Georgian products will now be tariff-free in China.

Georgia Economic Growth

A robust external sector and moderating price pressures should fuel another buoyant year of growth this year. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project that GDP will grow 4.5% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2019, growth is seen broadly steady at 4.4%.

Georgia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.83.83.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,1524,2984,4293,8023,934
GDP per capita (EUR)3,2723,3073,2353,4133,541
GDP (USD bn)15.916.316.514.114.6
GDP (EUR bn)12.612.512.112.713.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.43.44.62.92.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.6-1.1-2.0-0.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.834.735.641.4-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)7.633.29.1-2.512.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.9-0.53.14.02.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.253.754.008.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.661.741.882.402.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.651.661.762.272.37
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.192.392.282.612.81
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.122.212.342.522.62
Current Account (% of GDP)-12.0-6.3-11.2-12.6-13.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-1.0-1.9-1.8-2.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-4.2-3.5-4.3-3.9-3.9
Exports (USD billion)3.54.24.13.12.9
Imports (USD billion)7.77.78.37.06.8
Exports (annual variation in %)7.621.2-4.1-23.9-5.2
Imports (annual variation in %)14.40.37.8-15.7-3.3
International Reserves (USD)2.72.62.52.32.6
External Debt (% of GDP)83.481.783.8107106

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.470.0 %Feb 22
Stock Market0.50.55 %Feb 22

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