Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

According to available data, the economy finished 2018 on a strong footing following a somewhat downbeat performance in Q3. Activity growth kicked into a higher gear in Q4, against the backdrop of lower inflation and healthy labor market dynamics, which boded well for consumer demand. On the external front, merchandise exports continued to surge in Q4, buoyed by robust demand from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. Looking forward, the momentum appears to have cooled in the current quarter: Economic activity came in well below last year’s average in January. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings upgraded the country’s credit rating from BB- to BB, with a stable outlook, citing its solid growth metrics and the economy’s resilience to external shocks.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth should remain sturdy this year, although it is set to lose some traction amid feebler external demand. Stable inflation, a tightening labor market and healthy credit growth should prop up private consumption, while inflows of EU cohesion funds are seen sustaining healthy investment activity. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 4.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.7% in 2020.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.83.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,4293,8023,9464,284
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,2353,4133,5523,756
GDP (USD bn)16.316.514.114.615.8
GDP (EUR bn)12.512.112.713.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-2.0-1.1-1.4-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.644.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.402.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-11.3-12.7-13.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.1-5.7-5.5-7.7-5.3
Exports (USD billion)2.92.92.22.12.7
Imports (USD billion)8.08.67.79.98.0
Exports (annual variation in %)22.5-1.7-22.9-4.129.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.47.2-10.127.5-19.0
International Reserves (USD)2.62.52.32.62.8
External Debt (% of GDP)82.684.7108109109

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.690.0 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.55 %Mar 11

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