Georgia Economic Forecast

Georgia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Georgians will head to the polls again on 28 November to decide between Salome Zourabichvili and Grigol Vashadze in the second round of the presidential election. While the two candidates emerged from the first round largely neck-and-neck, Grigol Vashadze seems to be leading the polls less than a week before the election. Meanwhile, the economy appears to have lost traction in Q3 amid cooling export growth, following an impressive Q2 outturn. Nevertheless, the deceleration in Q3’s economic activity came largely on the back of a poor performance in August, with more upbeat data for September signaling that the economy remains on a healthy growth trajectory.

Georgia Economic Growth

Growth should remain robust next year, propped up by healthy investment activity which will benefit from increased inflows of EU development funds. The implementation of structural reforms should improve the resilience of the financial system and make growth more sustainable in the medium-term. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 4.8% in 2019, unchanged from the previous month’s forecast, and 4.6% in 2020.

Georgia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.83.73.73.73.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2984,4293,8023,9464,284
GDP per capita (EUR)3,3073,2353,4133,5523,756
GDP (USD bn)16.316.514.114.615.8
GDP (EUR bn)12.512.112.713.113.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.44.62.92.84.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.1-2.0-1.1-1.4-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.735.641.444.644.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)33.29.1-2.512.929.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.53.14.02.16.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.754.008.006.507.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.741.882.402.662.59
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.661.762.272.372.51
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)2.392.282.612.813.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)2.212.342.522.622.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.3-11.3-12.7-13.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.0-1.9-1.8-1.9-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.1-5.7-5.5-7.7-5.3
Exports (USD billion)2.92.92.22.12.7
Imports (USD billion)8.08.67.79.98.0
Exports (annual variation in %)22.5-1.7-22.9-4.129.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-0.47.2-10.127.5-19.0
International Reserves (USD)2.62.52.32.62.8
External Debt (% of GDP)82.684.7108109109

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Georgia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate2.660.0 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.55 %Dec 12

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