Georgia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economic panorama improved somewhat in Q3, although conditions remained subdued, after Q2’s sharp GDP contraction on the impact of the pandemic. Activity shrank at a considerably softer—albeit still marked—pace on average in Q3, reflecting recovering domestic demand amid fiscal stimulus, robust credit growth and healthy remittance inflows. Meanwhile, although merchandise exports dipped again in Q3, September saw shipments increase for the first time since January, hinting at recovering foreign demand. That said, a surge in new Covid-19 cases in October threatens to halt the recovery in Q4. In politics, on 31 October, the country held its first parliamentary elections since the electoral reform law was passed in June. Although the ruling Georgian Dream party claimed a crushing victory, the result was contested by a coalition of opposition parties, who called for protests and announced their intention of forming a coalition government.

Georgia Economic Growth

The economy should rebound next year, after GDP is expected to shrink at the sharpest pace in nearly three decades in 2020. Recovering tourist inflows will support the external sector, while revitalized consumer demand will underpin a rebound in domestic activity. Uncertainty over the course of the pandemic and regional geopolitical instability cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 5.5% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. In 2022, growth is seen slowing to 5.0%.

Georgia Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.7	3.7
GDP per capita (USD)	4,016	4,061	4,361	4,718	4,767
GDP per capita (EUR)	3,618	3,668	3,866	3,999	4,275
GDP (USD bn)	14.9	15.1	16.2	17.6	17.7
GDP (EUR bn)	13.5	13.7	14.4	14.9	15.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	3.0	2.9	4.8	4.8	5.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.2	-1.5	-0.5	-0.8	-1.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	36.8	40.3	39.9	39.9	41.2
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	-3.8	14.8	27.9	15.9	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.0	2.1	6.0	2.6	4.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	8.00	6.50	7.25	7.00	9.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	2.40	2.66	2.59	2.68	2.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	2.27	2.37	2.51	2.53	2.82
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	2.61	2.81	3.10	3.06	3.21
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	2.52	2.62	2.83	2.99	3.15
Current Account (% of GDP)	-11.8	-12.5	-8.1	-6.8	-5.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.8	-1.9	-1.3	-1.2	-0.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-4.0	-3.9	-3.8	-4.1	-3.7
Exports (USD billion)	3.0	2.9	3.6	4.4	4.9
Imports (USD billion)	7.0	6.7	7.4	8.5	8.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	-24.4	-5.2	24.6	23.4	12.2
Imports (annual variation in %)	-15.8	-3.2	9.4	15.5	1.9
International Reserves (USD)	2.5	2.8	3.0	3.3	3.5
External Debt (% of GDP)	102	105	107	101	105

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Georgia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	2.86	0.0 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.55 %	Jan 07

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