El Salvador Economic Outlook
December 4, 2018
The economy has had a mixed few months in the third quarter after accelerating in the second quarter. Economic activity in July–August increased at roughly the same rate that was achieved in Q2 on average. However, inflation accelerated substantially compared to the second quarter and the merchandise trade deficit widened by over 30% year-on-year due to higher imports. Meanwhile, on 16 November, the IMF urged the government to press forward with structural reforms in order to foster private-sector-driven growth in the future.El Salvador Economic Growth
Economic growth is expected to be stable next year. Higher remittance inflows from the United States should support private consumption, at least until the Temporary Protected Status program in the U.S. potentially ends in September 2019. However, high and volatile oil prices could weigh on the external sector’s contribution to growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.El Salvador Economy Data
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