El Salvador Economic Outlook
April 9, 2019
Economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2018 was relatively unchanged compared to Q3, as a rebound in exports offset a slowdown in domestic demand. Moving to Q1 2019, available date suggests the economy likely continued to expand at a moderate pace. On one hand, merchandise exports contracted year-on-year in the first two months of 2019. Moreover, the IVAE volume index of economic activity ebbed in January on slower growth in the financial and insurance activities subsector, which was only partially offset by an acceleration in industrial production. Nevertheless, in the first two months of the year, family remittances remained robust and private sector credit growth was healthy, which bodes well for private consumption.El Salvador Economic Growth
Growth will decelerate in 2019 as elevated household debt and a slowdown in the U.S. dampen the expansion in household spending. Moreover, high public debt and a potential withdrawal of U.S. foreign aid pose downside risks. Nevertheless, the TPS extension in the U.S. will support family remittances this year, while past structural reforms should support private sector activity. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.9% in 2020.El Salvador Economy Data
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