Czech Republic Economic Forecast

Czech Rep. Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

A preliminary estimate revealed that the economy rebounded in Q3, following an unprecedented contraction in Q2 as the country felt the full brunt of lockdown measures. Although a detailed breakdown for Q3 is yet to be released, improving retail sales and consumer confidence hint at recovering household spending, while rebounding industrial production and business sentiment indicate stronger private sector activity. Moving to Q4, the picture is turning gloomier. Due to a sharp rise in new Covid-19 cases, the government declared a state of emergency and renewed strict containment measures in early October. The worsening health situation risks derailing the incipient recovery, as suggested by flagging business and consumer confidence in October. That said, the administration recently extended part of its short-term work scheme, and approved a relief plan for the hardest-hit businesses.

Czech Republic Economic Growth

After suffering a severe recession this year due to the Covid-19 blow, the economy is seen rebounding strongly next year as domestic and foreign demand recover, and fiscal and monetary measures provide further support. That said, key downside risks remain, including the prolongation of the health crisis and disrupted European automotive supply chains. FocusEconomics analysts see GDP expanding 4.5% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2022.

Czech Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.510.610.610.610.6
GDP per capita (EUR)16,00816,70818,16419,55520,666
GDP (EUR bn)169176192207220
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.42.44.52.82.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.83.54.43.13.0
Investment (annual variation in %)10.3-3.24.07.52.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.33.46.53.0-0.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.75.25.54.94.8
Unemployment Rate5.14.02.92.22.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.60.71.50.90.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.036.834.732.630.8
Money (annual variation in %)8.46.68.65.67.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.02.02.42.03.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-0.12.12.31.6-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.9-0.30.72.42.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.050.501.752.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.0-3.617.0-8.513.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)27.0327.0225.5425.7825.41
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)27.2827.0326.3325.6525.67
Current Account (% of GDP)0.21.61.40.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.42.73.10.9-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)6.99.19.87.89.4
Exports (EUR billion)116118130136140
Imports (EUR billion)109109120128130
Exports (annual variation in %)4.81.910.24.62.6
Imports (annual variation in %)6.30.010.36.71.6
International Reserves (EUR)59.281.3123124133
External Debt (% of GDP)68.473.489.182.778.5

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Czech Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.64-1.85 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate22.76-0.66 %Dec 30

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