Czech Republic Economic Forecast

Czech Rep. Economic Outlook

October 3, 2017

Czechs are gearing up for elections later this month amid buoyant economic growth, as businesses struggle to fill vacancies. Recent data suggests economic activity continued to grow robustly in Q3, after strengthening in Q2 on the back of a broad-based expansion. In July, growth in both industrial production and exports accelerated, benefiting from high demand for motor vehicles, and the latest PMI readings indicate that manufacturing output increased throughout Q3. The strong economy was also reflected in improved economic sentiment in September and tightening labor market conditions, with the unemployment rate hovering near a multi-year low in recent months and wages increasing at the fastest pace in a decade in Q2. The results are a testament to the current administration’s successful management of the economy and will carry some weight in this month’s elections.

Czech Republic Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)10.510.510.510.510.6
GDP per capita (EUR)15,25714,93214,85416,00816,726
GDP (EUR bn)160157156169177
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.7-0.52.75.42.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-1.20.51.83.83.6
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.9-2.54.010.4-2.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.8-0.15.04.63.5
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)-1.11.25.58.16.4
Unemployment Rate6.87.77.76.55.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.9-1.2-1.9-0.60.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.544.942.240.337.2
Money (annual variation in %)4.65.06.68.46.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.40.10.12.0
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)2.41.50.1-0.12.1
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)1.21.7-3.7-2.9-0.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.050.050.050.05
Stock Market (annual variation in %)14.0-4.8-4.31.0-3.6
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)25.1427.4327.7327.0327.02
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)25.1425.9927.5327.2827.03
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.6-0.50.20.81.6
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-2.5-0.80.31.52.7
Trade Balance (EUR billion)4.96.58.07.79.5
Exports (EUR billion)104103110118118
Imports (EUR billion)99.596.7102111109
Exports (annual variation in %)5.4-1.37.17.0-0.1
Imports (annual variation in %)3.7-2.96.07.8-1.7
International Reserves (EUR)34.240.845.059.481.3
External Debt (% of GDP)60.563.570.170.273.9

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Czech Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.463.48 %Oct 18
Exchange Rate21.88-0.02 %Oct 18
Stock Market1,054-0.20 %Oct 18

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Czech Republic Economic Growth

October 3, 2017

The economy has shifted into a higher gear and growth is expected to accelerate this year. It should remain strong in 2018 as fixed investment benefits from increased inflows of EU funds, household spending expands on the back of healthy labor market dynamics and external demand for Czech products remains robust. Furthermore, the outcome of the parliamentary elections should not change the prudent fiscal approach taken so far by the current governing coalition, which bodes well for the future evolution of the public debt. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 3.8% in 2017 and 3.0% in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s projection.

Czech Republic Economic News

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