Czech Rep. Economic Outlook
October 2, 2018Although GDP growth cooled to a year-and-a-half low in Q2, available data points to upbeat economic activity in Q3. The unemployment rate remained steady in August after ticking up in July from an all-time low in June. This, coupled with nominal wage growth at its fastest in over a decade, have shored up household purchasing power, which likely contributed to the surge in retail sales in July. Similarly, on the supply side, industrial production expanded at the fastest annual clip so far this year in July, propelled by a jump in manufacturing output. That said, sound hard data has come at odds with leading indicators: Consumer confidence, business sentiment and the manufacturing PMI averaged lower in Q3 compared to Q2. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Andrej Babis’ minority government finalized the 2019 draft budget on 19 September, prioritizing increased spending in investments, pensions and public sector salaries; nonetheless, it targets a smaller deficit compared to 2018’s. Babis will need backing from the Communist Party yet again for parliamentary approval, after their support enabled his government’s survival of the confidence vote in July.
Czech Republic Economic GrowthThe economy is expected to lose steam this year and next. However, the pace of growth should remain robust thanks to healthy household spending gains, underpinned by a nearly-exhausted labor market and brisk wage growth, as well as by planned increases in government spending, particularly higher infrastructure investment. Heightened uncertainty and potential spillover effects from deteriorating global trade conditions cloud the outlook due to the export-oriented nature of the country’s industrial base. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see GDP growing 3.2% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s projection.
Czech Republic Economy Data
5 years of Czech Republic economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Czech Republic Facts
|Bond Yield||2.15||-1.85 %||Oct 12|
|Exchange Rate||22.27||-0.66 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||1,080||-0.10 %||Oct 12|
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Czech Republic Economic News
October 9, 2018
Consumer prices fell 0.3% in September from the previous month, contrasting August’s mild 0.1% rise.
October 8, 2018
Industrial production rose 1.9% year-on-year in August, markedly below July’s nine-month high increase of 10.3%.
October 1, 2018
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) produced by IHS Markit dipped from 54.9 in August to 53.4 in September, the third consecutive monthly fall and the lowest reading since November 2016.
September 26, 2018
At its 26 September meeting, the Bank Board of the Czech National Bank (CNB) decided to raise the two-week repo rate by 25 basis points to 1.50%, the third consecutive rate hike and a move widely expected by the market.
September 24, 2018
The economic sentiment indicator, a composite confidence indicator published by the Czech Statistical Office (CSO), climbed from 99.1 in August to 99.6 in September.