Czech Republic Economic Forecast

Czech Rep. Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

The economy rebounded in annual terms in Q2, underpinned by easing Covid-19 restrictions and supportive fiscal and monetary policy stances, as well as a favorable base effect. The recovery likely carried over into the third quarter: Consumer confidence strengthened on average in Q3, which, coupled with a recovering labor market, hints at healthy household spending. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory in the period, although business sentiment weakened somewhat. In politics, Prime Minister Andrej Babis’ ANO-led coalition is leading the polls by a narrow margin ahead of the 8–9 October elections, followed by the center-right SPOLU alliance and the Pirate Party-led coalition. As no single group is likely to win an outright majority, uncertainty looms over possible post-election alliances and tough negotiations to form a new government.

Czech Republic Economic Growth

The economy should expand at a solid pace this year and next, as the Covid-19 pandemic subsides, pent-up demand is unleashed and an expansionary fiscal policiy support activity. Additionally, EU recovery funding will provide a further boost. However, the outlook is clouded by ongoing global supply shortages and pandemic-related uncertainty. FocusEconomics analysts see GDP expanding 3.6% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Czech Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.510.610.610.610.6
GDP per capita (EUR)16,00816,70818,16419,55520,666
GDP (EUR bn)169176192207220
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.42.44.52.82.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.83.54.43.13.0
Investment (annual variation in %)10.3-3.24.07.52.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.33.46.53.0-0.2
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)5.75.25.54.94.8
Unemployment Rate5.14.02.92.22.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.60.71.50.90.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.036.834.732.630.8
Money (annual variation in %)8.46.68.65.67.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.02.02.42.03.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)-0.12.12.31.6-  
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.9-0.30.72.42.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.050.501.752.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)1.0-3.617.0-8.513.1
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)27.0327.0225.5425.7825.41
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)27.2827.0326.3325.6525.67
Current Account (% of GDP)0.21.61.40.6-  
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.42.73.10.9-0.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)6.99.19.87.89.4
Exports (EUR billion)116118130136140
Imports (EUR billion)109109120128130
Exports (annual variation in %)4.81.910.24.62.6
Imports (annual variation in %)6.30.010.36.71.6
International Reserves (EUR)59.281.3123124133
External Debt (% of GDP)68.473.489.182.778.5

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Czech Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield1.64-1.85 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate22.76-0.66 %Dec 30

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