Precious Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Precious Metals Price Outlook

Flight to safe-havens continues to support precious metal prices in August

Precious metal prices rose 5.2% month-on-month in August, accelerating from July’s 4.3% increase. As a result, precious metal prices posted the ninth gain in the last 12 months.

As in previous months, strong demand for safe-haven assets underpinned higher precious metal prices in August. An uncertain global economic outlook, the prolonged trade war between the two superpowers, widespread geopolitical risks and more accommodative monetary policies by key central banks are behind the recent rally in safe-haven assets, especially gold and silver. Although platinum prices are catching up due to this flight to safety, there are also fundamental reasons behind the rally, such as signs that carmakers could start substituting expensive palladium for cheaper platinum. Meanwhile, palladium prices have been recovering in the last few weeks from a sharp decline in early August, which reflected weak auto sales in China and technical selling.

Our panelists see precious metal prices increasing 19.5% in Q4 2019 compared to the same period of 2018 (previously projected: +12.1% year-on-year). Ahead, global growth is seen weakening further, bruised by heightened geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing trade wars, which, coupled with the lower interest rate environment, will continue to spur demand for safe-haven assets. Nevertheless, prices for precious metals are expected to recede next year, with FocusEconomics panelists projecting prices to decrease 1.1% year-on-year in Q4 2020

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Precious Metals Historical Price Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Gold1410.71  1265.83  1159.8  1248.54  1258.46  
Silver23.82  19.07  15.71  17.15  17.06  
Palladium725  803.44  690.55  614.03  869.99  
Platinum1485.41  1383.61  1051.85  987.37  948.13  

Note:
Gold prices in USD per troy ounce (toz).
Silver prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Palladium prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Platinum prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
All prices are average of period (aop). 

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