Precious Metals Price Outlook Economic Forecast

Precious Metals Price Outlook

Prices broadly stable in February on subdued geopolitical risks

Muted gains in gold and platinum prices, coupled with declines in prices for palladium and silver, prompted precious metals to decline a slight 0.3% on a month-on-month basis in February (January: +5.4% mom). The strengthening of the U.S. dollar early in February, amid signs that the Federal Reserve could accelerate its tightening cycle, sent gold prices to the lowest level since the start of the year. Since late February, gold prices recovered, mostly due to fears of a trade war between key global players, following U.S. plans to impose tariffs on aluminium and steel. Silver prices, however, were dragged down in February by news of strong output mainly due to higher scrap supply. More recently, the unexpected news about an upcoming meeting between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could help ease political tensions between the two countries, which could dent the price for safe-haven assets such as gold and silver.

Platinum prices were flat in February as ample supply trimmed the appetite for the commodity; the precious metal has been trading at a discount compared to palladium since Q4 2017. Prices for palladium, a widely used component for auto catalysts in gasoline cars, declined in the same month on the back of weaker car sales in some large markets such as the United States.

Geopolitical risks will continue to support precious metal prices this year and next. Moreover, strong global growth will boost industrial usage particularly of palladium, platinum and silver, as well as purchases of jewelry and bullion. Analysts polled for this month’s survey see precious metal prices for Q4 2018 rising 2.7% from the same quarter in 2017. The panel sees a mild acceleration next year, with precious metal prices increasing 2.9% year-on-year in Q4 2019.

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Precious Metals Historical Price Data

2012  2013  2014  2015  2016  
Gold1668.69  1410.71  1265.83  1159.8  1248.54  
Silver31.14  23.82  19.07  15.71  17.15  
Palladium643.47  725  803.44  690.55  614.03  
Platinum1549.48  1485.41  1383.61  1051.85  987.37  

Gold prices in USD per troy ounce (toz).
Silver prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Palladium prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
Platinum prices in USD per troy ounce (toz). 
All prices are average of period (aop). 

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Price forecasts and historical data for Energy, Metals and Agricultural Commodities


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