FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
June 18, 2018
On June 1st a new populist coalition government entered office in Italy. The coalition of the 5 Star Movement (M5S) and the League represents a strong rejection of previous fiscal austerity programmes, and a more sceptical attitude to the EU and its institutions, with the League’s leader Matteo Salvini having previously stated that entering the Euro was a mistake for Italy. While the new government has omitted any mentions of a Eurozone exit (Italexit) from its economic programme, its policy plans have significantly raised uncertainty in Italian financial markets. Under certain circumstances, they could lead to a debt crisis, which could cause an Italexit. While non-Italian banks have reduced their exposure to Italian debt since the Eurozone Crisis of 2011-2014, some spill-over risks to the rest of the Eurozone remain.
Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
June 18, 2018
Latin America and the Caribbean is one of the two regions of the world with the least intraregional trade along with Africa. This is due to the fact that historically countless processes have been developed with different objectives and results, which have not only failed to integrate the region economically but have also led to fragmentation. The risk that the escalation of the Trump administration's protectionist agenda implies for Latin America opens a new window via which the two great regional blocs, MERCOSUR and the Pacific Alliance, could grow closer.
How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
June 8, 2018
The economic expansion that took place in the first decade of the 21st Century brought about considerable improvements in Latin American and Caribbean labor markets, including a reduction in unemployment and a significant increase in wages. The formality of employment, however, did not change significantly, reaching only 27% for women and 40% for men. Once the expansion cycle ended, the positive trend in employment stagnated, revealing the fragility of a system that had expanded mainly thanks to an increase in employment, without a considerable increase in productivity.
How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
June 8, 2018
24 June marks a momentous occasion for women in Saudi Arabia; they will be legally allowed to drive for the first time. The move is a key part of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s Vision 2030 initiative, which aims to modernize and diversify the Gulf state’s petro-dependent economy, and make the country more attractive to would-be foreign investors. It also comes amid a wider reformist push, which saw many top officials purged late last year and the Crown Prince recently touring the West in an attempt to boost Saudi Arabia’s standing abroad.
Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
June 7, 2018
In an upmarket hotel in Seoul on 9 March 2016, a Korean man gently tapped two black stones against a bowl, and became immortalized as a symbol of a new industrial revolution. The man in question was Lee Sedol, one of the strongest players in the history of the ancient Chinese board game Go. He had just resigned against AlphaGo, Google’s artificial intelligence system, in a match that made waves around the world—particularly in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) community.
India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
June 5, 2018
India has not escaped the scrutiny of the Trump administration when it comes to the two countries’ trade balance. India’s trade surplus in goods and services with the U.S. fell from USD 31 billion in 2016 to USD 28 billion in 2017. Although this was welcome news for the U.S., which wants to improve its overall trade balance with India, the reduction was not seen as large enough.
Unwinding Carillion’s collapse and its wider implications
May 28, 2018
“Responsible business has always been at the heart of what we mean by ‘Making Tomorrow a Better Place’”, pledged Carillion in its last Sustainability Report. In a glossy statement issued in May 2017, the company reported that it had “made an encouraging start to the year in terms of winning new business in our chosen markets, with new orders” and had “increased revenue visibility”.
Less than a year on, the multinational construction conglomerate and notably the UK’s second-largest construction firm crumbled under the weight of mammoth debt and pension liabilities, sliding into compulsory liquidation on 15 January. It had been one of the top public service contractors to the British government under the Private Finance Initiative (PFI), winning a slew of contracts to deliver essential services across government departments including transport, defense, education and health
An Analysis of the Concept of Guaranteed Basic Income
May 22, 2018
By Guest Author:
Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University, Dept. of Finance & Economics
With the increased use of automation, robotics, and artificial intelligence the demand for human workers may actually see a decline in the coming years. An old idea of a universal guaranteed income for every individual is once again gaining traction given its benefits and drawbacks.
The real reason inequality is so high in Latin America
May 7, 2018
As we know, Latin America is the most unequal region in the world. This lack of equality that characterizes the region is undoubtedly a major barrier to its economic development. Why is it so difficult for Latin America to reduce inequality in a sustained way?
A Brief Analysis of the Central America and the Caribbean Economy
May 4, 2018
A sometimes overlooked region, the Central America and Caribbean economy is very important to the global economy. There is quite a bit going on in the region at the moment, including public unrest, corruption scandals and yet robust economic growth in many of the region’s economies. To get a better idea of what is happening in the Central America economy currently and how it looks for the foreseeable future, we asked some of our economists responsible for the region to give us an update. Here are their responses:
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Blog archive
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- 2018 & 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- China’s growing influence on the Latin American economy
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2018
- How Latin America emerged from recession in 2017
- Is this the beginning of the end for Bitcoin?
- Risks and Opportunities for 2018 - Daniel Lacalle
- Emerging Markets 2018 Economic Outlook
- The role of FDI in Vietnam’s socio-economic development
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
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