FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
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Look who’s back: The story of inflation in recent decades and prospects going forward
April 7, 2021
“As violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man”: This is how former U.S. President Ronald Reagan described high inflation, which marked the early part of his presidency in the 1980s.
Reagan’s remark captured the political zeitgeist. The developed world still bore the psychological scars of the “stagflation” of the previous decade, categorized by sluggish growth and high prices. Economists were increasingly questioning the basic tenets of the Keynesian demand-management model which had governed policymaking since the end of WW2. And monetarism—a radical new theory which emphasized the importance of controlling the supply of money in order to get a grip on inflation—was gaining devotees
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India’s economy: Always darkest before the dawn?
March 25, 2021
In late March of last year, one of the world’s strictest lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19 was introduced in India, wreaking havoc on economic output. Industrial production declined almost 60% in April, while the services side of the economy dropped over 20% in April–June. While stronger government spending limited the overall fall, in the first quarter of FY 2020 the Indian economy posted the first economic contraction since the country began publishing quarterly GDP reports back in 1996.
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The Richest Countries in the World
March 25, 2021
GDP per capita—while certainly an imperfect measure—is a useful proxy for measuring a country’s standard of living. We decided to update our popular article and take another look at our forecasts for the 132 countries we cover to see which will have the highest GDP per capita in 2025. The projections are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms. Small European nations dominate the ranking, thanks to their extremely robust institutions, stable policy environments and high-performing education systems, with the United States and Singapore rounding out the top seven.
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For richer, for poorer: The economic impact of population changes
March 22, 2021
Rapid population growth implies a swelling workforce: While this presents immense economic opportunities, it also comes with risks, particularly as difficulties absorbing new entrants to the job market could endanger social stability. In contrast, population aging is set to put extra pressure on public finances, spark labor shortages and provoke profound shifts in consumption patterns. In both cases, the role of governments will be critical in allowing countries to ride out these demographic fluctuations.
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Malaysia Economic Outlook - Interview with KAF Research, Kenanga Investment Bank, RAM Ratings and RHB Research Institute
February 25, 2021
In January, the Malaysian government announced a new set of Covid-19 restrictions amid surging new cases. This came on the heels of a heavy contraction in 2020—the worst since 1998 during the Asian financial crisis. To take a more detailed look at the economic impact of the new restrictions, the government’s key challenges amid its plan for fiscal consolidation, and the economic outlook, we spoke to Vincent Loo, senior economist at KAF Research, Atiqa Noor Azlan, economist at Kenanga Investment Bank, Ahmad Nazmi Idrus, senior economist at RHB Research Institute, and Woon Khai Jhek, senior economist at RAM Ratings.
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The Poorest Countries in the World
February 18, 2021
GDP per capita is considered an important method to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other. We decided to make an update to one of our most popular blog posts and take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita in 2025 for the 130+ countries we cover to see which are projected to be the five poorest countries in the world at the end of our forecast horizon. The projections used in this article are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
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The World's Top 5 Largest Economies in 2024
February 16, 2021
We are currently witnessing the changing of the economic guard, with emerging-market economies—particularly in Asia—making huge development strides and the hegemony of the West looking ever shakier. The Covid-19 crisis has seemingly accelerated this change: China was one of the few major economies to record growth last year for instance, while the U.S. and Europe were mired in deep recessions. The next several years should see a continuation of recent trends, with China and India further closing the economic gap with developed economies.
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The World's Fastest Growing Economies
February 16, 2021
This article looks at the fastest growing economies over the 2021-2025 period among the over 130 countries covered by FocusEconomics.
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Gold Prices in 2021
December 18, 2020
Trade wars, ultra-accommodative monetary policy and the unprecedented economic fallout from Covid-19 were key drivers behind the rise in gold prices in 2020. Next year, despite lingering uncertainty a number of push and pull factors should keep gold prices relatively stable throughout 2021.
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The economic implications of the Israeli-Arab normalization agreements - Interview with EIU
November 26, 2020
In recent months, Israel has normalized relations with the Arab countries of Bahrain, Sudan and the UAE. To discuss the economic impact of the moves and the possibility of further deals ahead, we spoke to Keren Uziyel, a senior analyst at the EIU.
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Featured Posts
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Look who’s back: The story of inflation in recent decades and prospects going forward
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The Poorest Countries in the World
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The World's Fastest Growing Economies
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The World's Top 5 Largest Economies in 2024
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Euro Area: Interview with HSBC
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South Africa: Interview with Investec
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Covid-19 And Remittances in Central America & The Caribbean
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Read about the story of inflation in recent decades and the prospects moving forward in our latest article:… https://t.co/4vQ6Q1czVd
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Major Euro area countries have seen their 2021 GDP forecasts repeatedly trimmed since the beginning of the year, du… https://t.co/83nuyeJ2uv
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FocusEconomics' recent GDP forecasts are cited by @Lucymburton & @Tim_Wallace in @Telegraph https://t.co/IG5NESbLAw
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Lockdown: One Year On looks at how the various measures taken by governments around the world have impacted key eco… https://t.co/jgPxgPl2tJ
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In late March of last year, one of the world’s strictest lockdowns to curb the spread of Covid-19 was introduced in… https://t.co/JNgk2VnZxI
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