FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
Uncertainty, instability and fear haunt a generation of Argentinians
October 16, 2018
Argentinians between the ages of 30 and 50 have inherited a heavy burden: economic instability, political turmoil and flagrant corruption. This combination, as familiar as it sounds to Latin Americans, is of particular relevance in Argentina because it has caused an entire generation to live life discouraged, without a long-term vision and clinging to what they have for fear of losing everything.
5 things: What to expect for Mexico's economy in 2019
October 8, 2018
Economist Christopher Thomas answers some questions regarding Mexico’s economic outlook for 2019 in the wake of the announcement of the new United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and as President-elect Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) prepares to take power later this year.
5 things: Brazil's economic downturn and what to expect going forward
October 8, 2018
Brazil's economy has had a tough time of it so far this year. The truckers' strike, the depreciating real and the uncertainty regarding presidential elections have all contributed to Brazil's economic woes in 2018. In this post, Senior Economist Angela Bouzanis answers some key questions regarding Brazil's economic outlook as we head into 2019.
Emerging Market Currency Crisis: Everything you need to know
October 3, 2018
When the clock struck midnight on 31st December 2017, emerging-market leaders were surely all praying for one thing; that the good times would continue to roll on into the New Year.
2017 was a stellar year for developing economies. Growth was buoyed by a synchronized expansion across the globe, local stock markets boomed, and still-loose monetary policy in developed nations—particularly the United States—meant currency pressures were minimal.
Four Industries to Watch Out For in Central America
September 27, 2018
Guest Post from Biz Latin Hub
Central America is for the most part showing signs of emergence and improvement in the international market. Despite fears surrounding security, unrest and corruption, the region is making significant ground in cleaning up its reputation and is a progressively more attractive investment prospect for foreign businesses.
Although much of the economy still remains heavily reliant on traditional sectors such as agriculture and textiles, exciting new trends and opportunities are springing up across the subcontinent as mirrored in the rest of Latin America.
Turkey’s Currency Crash Worsens Outlook for the Economy
September 19, 2018
Guest Author: Daniel Solomon, Economist, Euromonitor International
Turkey’s economy has deteriorated dramatically during the summer. The Turkish lira crashed by 33% in August 2018, bringing the total depreciation for 2018 to around 70%. Inflation in August reached 17.9% year-on-year, and the central bank raised its key interest rate from 8% to 17.75% during the summer. Both consumer and business confidence have dropped sharply. In September, Turkey’s central bank hiked interest rates once again to 24%.
The Richest Countries in the World
September 19, 2018
GDP per capita is often considered an indicator of the standard of living of a given country, as it reflects the average wealth of each person residing in a country. It is therefore the standard method used to compare how poor or wealthy countries are in relation to each other. As we get closer to 2019, we decided to take a look at our forecasts for GDP per capita from 2019 to 2022 for the 127 countries we cover to get an idea of what countries are the wealthiest currently and how the rankings will change over the coming years. The projections used in this study are Consensus Forecasts based on the individual forecasts of over 1000 world renowned investment banks, economic think tanks and professional economic forecasting firms.
Why is Angola seeking an IMF loan now?
September 17, 2018
Angola’s government recently reached out to the IMF for talks on a loan deal in exchange for more structural reforms. Angola is Africa’s third-largest economy and the continent’s second largest oil-exporter. The economy was badly hit by the plunge in oil prices after 2014.
Turkey: An economy on the verge of collapse?
September 7, 2018
The Turkish proverb “Zararın neresinden dönülse kârdır” can be loosely translated as “reducing losses at any point is always profitable ”. Simply put, it means that if one is on the wrong track, then the best course of action is to perform a U-turn, however painful or chastening it may be in the short run.
Economists and investors who have followed the tumultuous developments in Turkey in recent weeks must surely be hoping for the government and Central Bank to take the message to heart. Over the last month the lira has collapsed, driven by geopolitical tension with the U.S. and loose fiscal and monetary policy. This has led input costs to rocket and is saddling corporates with an ever heftier external debt burden.
Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
August 29, 2018
The pounding of the trade war drums is growing ever more deafening, with the U.S. and China currently engaged in an escalating, tit-for-tat tariff battle. The latest salvo came on 23 August when a fresh raft of tariffs came into force and two days of trade talks in Washington drew a blank. Many are still hopeful that common sense will prevail, but what if negotiations fall through? What would happen if analysts’ worst fears are realized, and we enter a full-blown trade war? What would be the impact on the export-oriented economies of the ASEAN region?
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Blog archive
- Which ASEAN countries are most exposed in the event of a U.S.-China trade war?
- 75 Top Economics Influencers to Follow
- Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
- The Faces Behind Latin America’s Key Institutions
- 2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- Is your cup of coffee about to get more expensive going in to 2019?
- The Economic Implications of an Aging Global Population
- Can the Wisdom of the Crowds predict the results of the 2018 World Cup?
- Railway Mania: The Largest Speculative Bubble You’ve Never Heard Of
- From Riches to Rags: Have Cryptocurrencies Crashed for Good?
- Investment looks to Latin America, but forecasts are not encouraging
- Turkey: Erdogan has cemented his grip on power - now what about the economy?
- Mexico: A look at the past, present and future as elections yield AMLO victory
- How can Latin America’s business environment benefit from technological change?
- Italy’s New Populist Government and the Eurozone: Prelude to a Crisis?
- Latin America moves toward increased integration as U.S. protectionism grows
- How can Latin America increase productivity without affecting the quality of employment?
- How will Saudi Arabia's economy benefit from lifting the women's driving ban?
- Which countries are the most prepared for the upcoming digital revolution?
- India Under Pressure from the U.S. on Trade Policy
- The Story of Steel
- Latin America is the World Leader in eCommerce Growth Despite Serious Challenges
- What the TPP means for trade in Latin America
- Elections in Russia: Analysis and Implications
- Nearly a Third of Latin Americans Have No Right to a Pension
- A Look at Healthcare Models Around the World
- The Poorest Countries in the World
- Newly-elected Chilean President Sebastian Piñera faces a myriad of challenges - economic and otherwise
- The Economic Effects of Trade Protectionism
- Regional Disparity: The Dark Side of Inequality in Latin America
- Coal: The story of the world's most abundant fossil fuel
- Venezuela's Electoral Conundrum
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- Trump's 1st Year: 95 Analysts Surveyed on U.S. Economy
- The Latest on China and What's in Store for 2018
- An in-depth look at the Eurozone’s booming economy and the challenges that lurk in the shadows
- Increasing poverty in Latin America takes a breather thanks to improving economic dynamics
- What will be the most miserable economies in 2018?
- The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
- Is Spain doing enough to address its high youth unemployment rate?
- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
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Blogroll
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
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- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
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