FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
Israel: A land of milk and honey?
December 3, 2019
Israel’s economy has certainly come a long way since the country’s foundation in the post-WW2 years. But has it earned its title as the “land of milk and honey"?
Is Dr Copper telling us everything is going to be alright?
November 20, 2019
Copper has acquired the nicknames “Dr Copper” and “the metal with a PhD in economics” due to its uncanny ability to diagnose the health of the broader economy. This is largely because copper has a host of industrial uses—including for electrical wiring, roofing, plumbing and industrial machinery—and because its supply is relatively stable, which means that prices are closely correlated with demand.As legal cannabis roots spread globally, Canadian companies capitalize on first-mover advantage
November 13, 2019
Canada's domestic cannabis market has grown notably over the past year and has shown signs that it will remain on this trajectory. Read why Canadian cannabis companies are poised to leverage their legislative advantage to prevail as the world's industry leaders.
Eurozone: Draghi says ciao; Lagarde says move
November 8, 2019
On 1 November, a new era for the Eurozone commenced as Christine Lagarde, the former head of the IMF, took over the reins of the ECB from Mario Draghi. In this post, we assess the outlook for the region next year and the biggest challenges facing Lagarde.
Israel: Interview with Bank Leumi
October 30, 2019
On many accounts, Israel has enjoyed an enviable economic trajectory in recent years. From 2010 to 2018 growth averaged 3.8%, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio fell by around ten percentage points. However, the country now faces important challenges, including how to better integrate its Haredi and Arab communities into the labor force, rein in a bulging fiscal deficit, and restore some semblance of political stability in a fractured Knesset—a government is yet to be formed following inconclusive elections in September. To discuss these issues and more, we spoke to Gil M. Bufman, Chief Economist at Bank Leumi.
Lebanon: Government announces reforms to appease protesters, but they are unlikely to solve fiscal or economic woes
October 28, 2019
On 21 October the Lebanese government presented a package of reform measures and cabinet approved the 2020 budget. The moves were designed to quell widespread protests—which began several days earlier over proposed tax rises but have since morphed into a more generalized outpouring of discontent regarding corruption and stagnating living standards—which have engulfed the country and paralyzed economic activity. While these measures could narrow the budget deficit in the short term, they are unlikely to be a lasting fix for the precarious fiscal position or reboot a spluttering economy. Moreover, concerns over the sustainability of the currency peg are likely to persist.
Argentina: Outlook darkens as Peronist chances grow
September 17, 2019
Argentina’s economic outlook has deteriorated notably since August’s LatinFocus edition. The primary elections on 11 August revealed that President Mauricio Macri is trailing in a very distant second place in the run-up to the October elections, shocking market analysts and sparking a huge and destabilizing capital flight in turn. The drastic change in political landscape and unfolding market turmoil has significantly affected the country’s outlook, particularly for next year. Now, GDP is seen contracting for the third year in a row in 2020, as the exchange rate’s drastic depreciation stokes inflation and forces even tighter monetary policy, suppressing consumption. Moreover, lower sentiment and the uncertain political situation, especially regarding the government’s finances and ability to honor its debts, will damage investment. In this accompanying feature, Argentina Economist Massimo Bassetti explains where the crisis is now and what to expect ahead, while several of our panelists provide insight into their forecasts, the current situation and what they see ahead.
United Kingdom: Interview with Oxford Economics
August 28, 2019
Boris Johnson became prime minister on 24 July, with a promise to loosen the fiscal purse strings and leave the EU by 31 October—“no ifs, no buts”. However, with that deadline fast approaching, the UK’s political—and by extension economic—future is still very much in the dark. To shed clarity on the situation, and explore what could be in store for the economy and on the Brexit front, we spoke to Andrew Goodwin, Chief UK Economist at Oxford Economics.
Analyzing ASEAN
August 14, 2019
This article assesses the economic and political evolution of ASEAN, from the bloc’s foundation in 1967 to the present day, and looks ahead at what is in store over the coming years. It places special focus on the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, two events which tested the ties between members. The article concludes with the ASEAN economic outlook from the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
Temporary Protected Status: What is it, and how could its termination affect Central America’s economy?
August 13, 2019
- What is Temporary Protected Status (TPS)?
TPS allows citizens from designated countries suffering from armed conflict, natural disasters or unrest to live and work in the U.S. The scheme can be renewed for a potentially unlimited period of time.
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Featured Posts
Israel: A land of milk and honey?
Is Dr Copper telling us everything is going to be alright?
As legal cannabis roots spread globally, Canadian companies capitalize on first-mover advantage
Eurozone: Draghi says ciao; Lagarde says move
Israel: Interview with Bank Leumi
Lebanon: Government announces reforms to appease protesters, but they are unlikely to solve fiscal or economic woes
Argentina: Outlook darkens as Peronist chances grow
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Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged in December and rolls back dovish stance https://t.co/pqLwRIIF59
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Spain: Composite PMI bounces back from near six-year low in November https://t.co/byHkfEVbt9 https://t.co/EBT8Bb6Rhd
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France: Private sector activity softens in November but remains above the 50-point threshold https://t.co/ONGD1ukiL8 https://t.co/qC5kiqWZ3y
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Nigeria: PMI climbs to 17-month high in November https://t.co/nsRMjOhQOp
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Australia: Growth disappoints in Q3, restrained by weak domestic demand https://t.co/btWDiLSh9e
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