FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
December 14, 2017
Trade with Latin America is becoming easier, according to the index that measures trade facilitation in 21 Latin American countries, which represented 95% of regional merchandise trade in 2016. Latin America's result again increased two points with respect to the average two years prior, and received a score of 69%. The index measures the "the simplification, standardization and harmonization of procedures and associated information flows required to move goods from seller to buyer and to make payment in order to reduce the time and cost of trade." The latest progress is outlined in the report Trade Facilitation and Paperless Trade Implementation in Latin America and the Caribbean, from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC).
December 11, 2017
As 2018 approaches, we take a look back at developments in the commodities markets over the past year and asked our economists what the future may hold for various key economies (Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead and Tin). We sat down with some of our economists to get their insight into the following questions:
December 4, 2017
It’s been a little over nine years since Satoshi Nakamoto, the anonymous creator (or creators) of Bitcoin, published the paper entitled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System. Written off for many years, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have since risen to prominence and economists, traders, financial gurus, central bankers and other financial authorities around the world are taking notice.
December 1, 2017
The Turkish lira (TRY) came under intense pressure in late November as political strain with the U.S. intensified and tensions between President Erdogan and Central Bank officials regarding the country’s monetary policy path going forward became more acute. The latest slump in the value of the lira followed renewed pressure by President Erdogan on the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey’s (CBRT) current policy stance. Erdogan argued in mid-November that Bank officials were on “the wrong path”, stressing that high interest rates were hindering economic growth and fueling higher inflation expectations. This was, however, at odds with the overarching view of analysts, who underlined the need for Turkey to tighten monetary conditions in a bid to rein in soaring consumer prices.
November 28, 2017
Last year we began a series of posts in which we answer typical questions about the various commodities we cover with our Consensus Forecast commodities report. Our first posts were on Brent and WTI crude oil as well as gold. Last month we covered iron ore, one of the most important yet underappreciated commodities. This time we've gone with copper, man's first metal. Keep checking back with us for more in our commodities explainer series.
November 22, 2017
The Nigerian economy contracted in 2016 for the first time in over 20 years, and, prior to 2015, the country had recorded a decade of growth of 6% or more. The contraction in 2016 was largely due to attacks by militants on oil production, which weighed heavily on an economy that was already suffering the impact of low oil prices.
November 22, 2017
The likelihood of a free trade agreement (FTA) between Mercosur and the European Union (EU) is growing. In the most recent round of negotiations held in Brasilia earlier this month, the leaders of both blocs made it clear that they are willing to move towards signing the treaty. Recent advances come within the context of growing protectionism in the United States. While prospects that the treaty will be signed are bright, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves. The leaders of both blocs have been negotiating for over 10 years and there are still important obstacles to be overcome.
November 13, 2017
Chileans will head to the polls on 19 November to choose a new president, amid a political panorama in flux. While the right is united behind Chile Vamos candidate Sebastian Piñera, the multi-billionaire former leader, the left has rarely looked more divided and will field three candidates in the first round. As a result of this fractured scenario, the policy options on offer to citizens are extremely broad; this is best highlighted by the leftist candidate Beatriz Sanchez, who is proposing a break with the largely consensual, market-oriented policies pursued since the restoration of democracy in 1990. However, the country looks set to opt once more for the known quantity of Piñera, who is expected to pursue a business-friendly agenda.
To examine the elections—and particularly Piñera’s program—in more detail, we speak to Maria del Pilar Cruz, Senior Economist at the Santiago Chamber of Commerce, who regularly participates in our Consensus Forecast panel.
November 10, 2017
This post comes from Daniel Nevins, a Chartered Financial Analyst and economist, who discovered an interesting chart while doing research on financial flows during the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs. QE has been hailed by many as the savior of numerous economies since the financial crisis, however, Nevins' chart raises many questions as to what QE really does or, more importantly, what it doesn't do.
Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
November 9, 2017
On 26 October, 225 days since the inconclusive elections in March, a new government was finally installed by King Willem-Alexander. Incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte was sworn in for another term, as his People’s Party of Freedom and Democracy (VVD) joined forces with the center-right Christian Democrats (CDA), the social-liberal Democrats ’66 (D’66) and the conservative Christion Union (CU). After the longest process of government formation in Dutch history, these four parties reached a deal on 10 October to form a fragile one-seat majority; the political scene in the Netherlands had been fragmented as a result of the March elections. The coalition agreement contains major reforms to the income tax system, labor market and mortgage interest rate deductions.
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[FocusEconomics Blog Update] Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade? - https://t.co/8AXJrQXv1S
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- Has Latin America gone far enough in reducing barriers to international trade?
- Commodities Outlook: Oil, Natural Gas, Coal, Lead & Tin
- 21 experts tell us what the future looks like for cryptocurrencies and blockchain
- Turkish lira plummets to all-time low on Erdogan’s monetary feud and tense U.S.-Turkey relations
- Copper: The first metal mastered by man
- Nigerian Economy Still Treading Water Thanks to Oil Sector
- The Mercosur-EU Free Trade Agreement: Obstacles & Opportunities
- Elections in Chile: What the results could mean for the economy
- QE’s Untold Story: A Chart That Fed Correspondents Need To Investigate
- Holland’s fragile one-seat majority government targets economic growth at the expense of fiscal sustainability
- South Africa: Economy at a tipping point?
- Latin American Commodities: What’s behind the increase in demand and prices?
- Is the UK really "shackled to a corpse"?
- Spain-Catalonia: 7 economic experts weigh in on how the situation will affect the outlook
- How well is Spain's labor market doing since the crisis?
- Which countries will have the highest and lowest inflation in 2017?
- How vulnerable is Latin America to economic crises today?
- Iron ore facts and common questions answered
- The bulging economic costs of obesity
- How much investment is needed to salvage Latin America’s crumbling infrastructure?
- A Look at the Potential Impact of Brexit on the Dutch Economy
- Emerging Markets Are Kicking Into Higher Gear In 2017
- Why is foreign direct investment in Latin America falling again?
- Are Central Banks Nationalising the Economy?
- Bounty or burden? The impact of refugees on European economies is far from clear
- What’s the future of U.S.-Latin America trade relations?
- Taxes or cutbacks? Latin America's challenge of sustaining spending without causing debt to skyrocket
- Are uranium prices making a comeback?
- Taxing the Economy: Achieving a Delicate Balance
- How will Latin America’s upcoming lengthy election cycle affect the reform agenda and credit ratings?
- How will emerging market economies perform in 2017?
- Chilean Economy in Focus: Interview with Senior Economist of the Chamber of Commerce of Santiago
- CEOs Rank Top Economies for Growth Opportunities
- The Mobile Ecosystem & Latin America's Economy
- Prospects and Challenges for the Global Economy: Interview with Tim Cooper from BMI Research
- How will the Fed reduce its balance sheet & and how will the ECB end QE? - 19 economic experts weigh in
- Thoughts on "unwinding" QE from Frances Coppola
- Gold: The Most Precious of Metals (Part 3)
- The Fed and ECB at a crossroads: Unwinding QE
- Spain: The economy that continues to silence the critics
- Latin America: The Most Unequal Region in the World
- The History of OPEC: Has it been a Success?
- FocusEconomics Announces 2017 Analyst Forecast Awards Winners
- Latin America’s rising unemployment bucks nearly decade long trend
- Escape from the Central Bank Trap by Daniel Lacalle
- China's economic rebalancing act: What to look out for in 2017
- Driving Growth in Latin America: Challenges & Priorities
- Is the Global Economy Rebalancing?
- Commodity exporters face challenging times
- Recent Global Events Facilitate Mercosur-Pacific Alliance
- 23 economic experts weigh in: Why is productivity growth so low?
- Mexico's outlook as Trump nears 100-day mark
- Interview with Oxford Economics Senior Economist on implications of the possible outcomes of the French Presidential Election
- The anxiety of the small saver in a world of negative interest rates
- Brexit negotiations. Between Uncertainty and Urgency
- An Economic History of the EU from El Blog Salmón
- Baby Boomin': Implications of high population growth in Latin America
- Survey of International Economists Predicts a Le Pen Defeat in French Elections, Says Macron has Best Economic Plan
- Spain in a global context: developed economy with some challenges
- How much is crime costing Latin America?
- Predictions & Estimates from Economist Daniel Lacalle
- What economy will the new Dutch government inherit?
- “The data is not a true reflection of reality in India” Interview with Société Générale India Economist
- 2017 & 2018 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
- What are the prospects for Emerging Economies in 2017?
- What to expect in Asia for 2017
- Top Economics & Finance Blogs of 2017
- 4 Key European Elections That Will Impact the Economy in 2017
- Latam to Resume Moderate Growth in 2017 but Important Risks Plague Outlook
- How are security concerns and political chaos affecting Turkey’s economy?
- Global growth to edge up in 2017
- Set to breach targets again? Debt and deficit outlooks for Southern European Eurozone countries in 2016 & 2017
- What does Donald Trump mean for the U.S. economy?
- How will emerging markets perform in 2017?
- The economic impact of a break in U.S.-Philippines ties
- Trump election: Base metals surge due to infrastructure plan
- 5 updates on the Venezuelan economic crisis
- Canada: When your neighbor’s house is on fire…
- Short-term pain before long-term gain? A look at French labor reform and economic growth
- Asia: Unremarkable growth & unfulfilled promises?
- How India's latest monsoon is affecting the economy
- Innovation in Latin America: Potential Goes Untapped Due to Weak Economic Conditions
- Russian economy update in wake of OPEC deal announcement
- The Wisdom of the Crowds and the Consensus Forecast
- Can the peso predict the U.S. election results?
- There's no end in sight to the Venezuela crisis
- A Look at the European Union Political Calendar
- Survey of international economists shows uncertainty surrounding elections damaging U.S. growth prospects
- FocusEconomics partners with leading online statistics provider Statista
- China: Recent postive economic data may be papering over the cracks
- Sub-Saharan Africa's 2016 & 2017 growth rates
- The Italian Dilemma: Weak banks pose risk to already faltering domestic demand
- How much money do migrants from Latin America send home?
- The U.S.' (Not So) Mysterious Case of the Missing Men
- What to expect from the G20 economies by 2020
- The Pain in Spain: Robust GDP growth cannot mask the persistent structural deficit
- Econometrics Beat: Dave Giles' Blog
- Marginal Revolution
- Morss Global Finance
- Observatorio Asia
- Observing Greece
- Of Markets & Men
- Punto de Vista Económico
- The Capital Spectator
- Trading Floor: Social trading, news and analysis
- True Economics
- Emre Deliveli's Blog on the Turkish Economy
- MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
- Wolf Street
- Geopolitica italiana
- bAg (Blog de economía de la ALdEa Global)
- Stock Trader´s Almanac
- Real-World Economics Review Blog
- The Winkle Institute for Worldwide Economic Stability
- Dash of Insight
- Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Chaco Realidades
- Comentario Financiero