FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts
Analyzing ASEAN
August 14, 2019
This article assesses the economic and political evolution of ASEAN, from the bloc’s foundation in 1967 to the present day, and looks ahead at what is in store over the coming years. It places special focus on the Asian Financial Crisis and the Global Financial Crisis, two events which tested the ties between members. The article concludes with the ASEAN economic outlook from the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast
Temporary Protected Status: What is it, and how could its termination affect Central America’s economy?
August 13, 2019
- What is Temporary Protected Status (TPS)?
TPS allows citizens from designated countries suffering from armed conflict, natural disasters or unrest to live and work in the U.S. The scheme can be renewed for a potentially unlimited period of time.
- Which Central American countries benefit from TPS?
TPS is currently in place for four countries in the Central America and Caribbean region: El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras and Nicaragua. Approximately 252,000 Salvadorans, 81,000 Hondurans, 56,000 Haitians and 4,500 Nicaraguans have been awarded TPS, according to a 29 March 2019 report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service. However, these figures likely overstate the true number of beneficiaries currently in the U.S., as they don’t take into account immigrants who have since left the country, died, or adjusted their status.
Argentina: Interview with Ecolatina
July 9, 2019
With Argentina’s October election drawing ever closer, all eyes are on its possible outcome and its likely consequences for the country’s economic outlook. The economy finally seems to be slowly but surely recovering, with the improvement in fiscal and external accounts possible harbingers of an incipient turnaround. Looking ahead, the recovery will now critically depend on whether international investors trust the government, especially concerning its willingness to honor the agreement signed with the IMF and its resolve to carry out much-needed economic reforms. We sat down with Lorenzo Sigaut Gravina and Federico Moll, economists at Ecolatina, to discuss the outlook and shed some light on the Gordian knots the new government will have to unravel; the respective political priorities and government strategies; and how the different political outcomes would likely shape Argentina’s economic trajectory.
Panama copper industry opportunities to watch out for in 2019
June 19, 2019
Guest Post from Biz Latin HubGlobal demand for copper is increasing, with a predicted annual growth rate of about 2.6% until 2027. The versatile metal is used in a wide range of consumer goods. Consequently, copper firms are searching for new projects amid a worldwide deficit. As demand quickly grows due to copper’s extensive use in renewable energies, it is an industry full of business opportunities.
Copper will diversify the Panamanian economy and increase its annual GDP growth. Significant investments have already been undertaken by the Canadian firm, First Quantum Minerals, since 2013, in the development of the $6 billion Cobre de Panama mine. Currently, the mining sector only contributes 2.5% to GDP. As the first Panamanian vessel with 31,200 tons of copper was exported this month, the industry has a chance to develop and growth, estimating this figure to reach the 9.5%.
What is the true state of Israel’s economy?
May 23, 2019
Israel’s economy surged in the first quarter of 2019 according to preliminary estimates, shrugging off political uncertainty in the build-up to April’s general elections and likely registering one of the strongest expansions in the Middle East and North Africa region. That said, Q1’s figure is less impressive than it appears at first glance; higher vehicle imports, in anticipation of imminent environmental tax changes, boosted the reading. To cut through the noise and get a clearer picture of the true state of Israel’s economy, we spoke to Gil M Bufman, Chief Economist at Bank Leumi.
China: Taking the Economic Center Stage
May 15, 2019
The Belt & Road and Made in China 2025 initiatives strive for a global economy with China at its core
“Hide your strength, bide your time, never take the lead”; such was the philosophy of former Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping, the architect of the market reforms in the 1970s and 1980s which set the Chinese economy careening towards modernity.
This maxim underpinned Chinese policy for decades, allowing the Asian giant’s economic rise to go largely unchallenged. Many countries drooled at the sight of a swelling new export market, while Western firms ploughed in FDI.
In 2017, current leader Xi Jinping sounded the death knell for Deng’s approach. Speaking at the 19th National Congress—amid a power vacuum left by Donald Trump’s mercantilism and the EU’s internal wrangling over Brexit—he promised China would adopt a more determining role in world affairs.
The Current State of American Corporate Debt
April 25, 2019
By Guest Author: Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University
The amount of corporate debt in the United States is growing at an alarming pace. While issuing debt has its good and dangerous sides, too much debt has been accruing with American companies due to numerous reasons. The problem then becomes how will the American economy be affected in case of an economic downturn.
Which will be the most miserable economies in 2019?
March 29, 2019
As Steve Hanke put it, the human condition inhabits a vast continuum between “happy” and “miserable.” When it comes to economics, misery tends to stem from high inflation and high unemployment. The best way to ensure happiness is to grow economically, but that is not easy with high inflation and unemployment.
The vast majority of countries report on economic indicators on a regular basis. Therefore, we can compare each nation to get an idea of how happy or miserable the people are in each of the nations.
Are you curious how happy or miserable your country is? In this post we attempt to give you an idea of which countries will be the most miserable (or happy) this year by using our projections for inflation and unemployment in 2019 for 130 countries to calculate their misery index score.
Only by freeing Nigeria from its dependence on oil can Buhari truly take Africa’s giant to the next level
March 27, 2019
In his election campaign, Muhammadu Buhari, the incumbent president and head of the All Progressives Congress (APC), ran on a platform promising to “take Nigeria to the next level”. More specifically, he pinpointed “next level agriculture”, “next level power”, “next level industrialization”, “next level tech & creative” and “next level school feeding” as the means to do so—vowing to his fellow Nigerians that “we are all going higher” as a result. After comfortably securing his second term—winning 55.6% of the votes in an election marred by characteristic delays, violence, voter apathy and condemnation by the opposition—Buhari must learn from the mistakes of his first term and immediately turn his attention to the significant challenges facing Nigeria. Particularly, the last five years have been yet another harsh reminder that Africa’s largest economy and most populous country remains fatally overdependent on its oil-related revenues, which still account for around two-thirds of government revenues and nearly 90% of export earnings. If he wishes to follow through on his campaign pledges, the former military general must therefore strive to free Nigeria from its reliance on its oil revenues, while cracking down on corruption and ensuring Nigeria’s institutions are left in better shape than he inherited them.An Analysis of President Trump’s 2020 Budget
March 22, 2019
By Guest Author: Professor Arthur S. Guarino, MBA, MSSc, JD, Rutgers University
President Trump’s 2020 federal budget clearly shows his priorities for the next decade: increased defense spending, the creation of a Space Force, significant funding for a southern border wall, higher long-term budget deficits, and a growing national debt. His administration’s budget will definitely affect every American as well as the macroeconomy.
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Featured Posts
Analyzing ASEAN
Temporary Protected Status: What is it, and how could its termination affect Central America’s economy?
Argentina: Interview with Ecolatina
The Poorest Countries in the World
The World's Top 10 Largest Economies
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook 2018 and 2019
2019 Economic Outlook for the Top Oil Producing Countries
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