FocusEconomics Insights - Latest Posts

• The World's Fastest Growing Economies

  March 19, 2019

  The Chinese economy's meteoric rise over the last few decades has been one of the biggest stories in economics; however, China’s growth has begun to slow in the last few years as authorities have begun to transition the economy from a manufacturing-based economy to a services-based economy. Thus, other economies have begun to post larger growth rates, in recent years. In this piece, we compile a list of the top 15 fastest growing economies in 2019 according to our Consensus Forecasts from over 1000 sources.

  One thing to keep in mind about most of these economies is that, fastest-growing does not necessarily mean largest economy or most developed. In fact, most of these countries suffer from things such as high income inequality, low levels of per capita GDP, political instability and widespread corruption.

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• President Sebastian Piñera aims to bring his elder brother’s private pension system into the 21st century

  March 18, 2019

  The upcoming overhaul of Chile’s private-led pension system points to business as usual. President Sebastian Piñera—the younger brother of José Piñera who molded today’s system as minister of work and social security under Augusto Pinochet’s military dictatorship—unveiled a bill last October, which raises mandatory contributions from 10.0% to 14.2%, bolsters competition among private administrators (AFPs) and increases the government’s financial support for low pensions. The reform—widely approved by the opposition—modernizes the current scheme and should not have any noticeable effects over economic activity in the near-term, according to surveyed panelists.

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  Tags: Latin America

• Brexit End-Game Scenarios

  February 21, 2019

  Guest Author: Daniel Solomon, PhD Economist, Euromonitor International

  With less than two months to go until the scheduled Brexit date of 29th March 2019, the conditions under which the UK will exit the EU remain highly uncertain. The options range from a no-deal Brexit to no-Brexit. The UK’s decision to leave the EU has already taken a toll on the UK economy, but the size of final economic cost of Brexit will heavily depend on the shape of the exit.

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  Tags: United Kingdom

• The Turkish Economy: What’s In Store For 2019?

  February 15, 2019

  The Turkish economy endured a rollercoaster ride last year. Economic activity boomed in H1, as the government ratcheted up spending in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections in June. Economic imbalances intensified in tandem, with the current account deficit and inflation soaring.

  Even after the election was over, with a decisive victory for Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his AK party, public spending continued at full tilt. Coupled with a hesitant Central Bank—likely under political pressure from the president—investor jitters started to mount. The lira, which had already been under pressure since the start of the year along with other emerging-market currencies, began to crumble.

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• Brexit Scenarios: Consensus of 14 Economic Analysts

  January 31, 2019

  Given the current large degree of uncertainty over the evolution of Brexit, this month we polled our panelists in order to shed some light on the issue. We asked panelists for the probability they assigned to different Brexit scenarios, and the UK’s future growth prospects in each of these scenarios. 

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• Sweden just formed a new government and approved its 2019 budget: what does it mean for the economy?

  January 25, 2019

  For several months following last September’s general elections, Sweden had a taste of something relatively unheard of in its recent memory: political paralysis. The vote had seen a surge in support for the right-wing Sweden Democrats alongside a slump in seats for Sweden’s two largest parties, the Social Democrats and the Moderates. This robbed both the center-left and center-right political groupings of a parliamentary majority, hamstringing the formation of a government.

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  Tags: Euro Area

• Which countries have the highest public debt levels?

  January 22, 2019

  Global debt has climbed at an eye-watering pace over the last decade. According to the International Monetary Fund, global debt climbed to 225% of global GDP in 2017. That’s 12 percentage points higher than the previous record level set in 2009, during the Global Financial Crisis, and many have pointed toward the global debt pile-up, particularly public debt, as the potential culprit for the next global financial crisis.

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• Predictions for the global economy in 2019 from 13 experts

  January 17, 2019

  With the new year just underway, we polled 13 economic experts for their predictions for the global economy in 2019. Before diving into that, our latest economic outlook for the global economy has growth coming in at 3.1% in 2019, which is below the 3.3% increase projected for 2018. Global economic growth is seen coming in at 2.9% in 2020. 

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  Tags: Economic Growth (GDP)

• Gurdgiev: Predictions for the global economy in 2019

  January 16, 2019

  By: Constantin Gurdgiev, PhD

  2018 passed into markets history as the year of risks re-coupling. That, plus the year of historical records. Some were good, but fleeting. One is bad, and lasting. As the chart below shows, 2018 is now in records books with the most asset classes registering negative returns for a year: 93 percent, as of the end of December.

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• Daniel Lacalle's ideas for 2019: Change of cycle.

  January 8, 2019

  With the new year just beginning, we reached out to economist Daniel Lacalle, PhD to find out what he envisages for the global economy in 2019. Read on to find out more.

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