Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

The economy grew at a record year-on-year pace in Q2, surpassing its pre-pandemic level, despite tighter Covid-19 restrictions imposed in May. Turning to Q3, available signs are favorable amid solid macroeconomic policies and a successful vaccination campaign. In July–August, the economic activity index recorded robust growth amid falling Covid-19 cases and the easing of the nightly curfew in July. Remittances continued to rise robustly through August thanks to a resurgent U.S. economy, likely supporting domestic demand. Moreover, tourism numbers edged up towards their pre-pandemic levels in the first two months of the quarter, which should have boosted the external sector. In other news, the government submitted its 2022 budget to parliament on 1 October. The plan signals a tightening of the fiscal stance, with an increased focus on productivity-raising investments.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

This year, the economy is set to accelerate due to faster U.S. growth boosting remittances, a high vaccination rate and fiscal and monetary support. However, instability in Haiti could contribute to refugee flows, potentially stoking social tensions and thus posing a downside risk. Growth should slow in 2022, partly due to a tougher base effect. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 8.9% in 2021 and expanding 5.0% in 2022, which unchanged is from last month’s forecast.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.010.110.210.310.4
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.96.74.77.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.55.53.95.24.8
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.31.74.21.23.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.81.63.33.61.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.64.23.07.62.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.91.914.00.4
International Reserves (USD)5.36.06.87.68.8
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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