Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

April 12, 2022

After the economy recorded double-digit growth last year, activity appeared to weaken in Q1 2022, although this was largely due to a tougher base effect. Year-on-year growth in January–February was still robust, with the economy rebounding month-on-month in February amid the removal of remaining Covid-19 restrictions, after contracting month-on-month in January due to the outbreak of Omicron. Moreover, the tourist sector remains vibrant: Annual growth in visitor arrivals in January–February averaged 172%. However, a year-on-year fall in remittances and increased inflation in the first two months of Q1 bode poorly for private spending in the quarter. New government measures such as fuel subsidies will only go some way to cushion the blow to household purchasing power. In other news, the U.S. reduced its alert level for travel to the Dominican Republic in April, which should aid tourism ahead.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

GDP growth should be lower this year due to a less favorable base effect, a normalization of remittances, elevated commodity prices and tighter monetary policy. That said, growth will likely remain healthy due to the recent removal of all Covid-19 restrictions, buoyant tourism and strong investment activity. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.2% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 4.6% in 2023.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.010.110.210.310.4
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.96.74.77.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.55.53.95.24.8
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.31.74.21.23.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.81.63.33.61.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.64.23.07.62.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.91.914.00.4
International Reserves (USD)5.36.06.87.68.8
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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