Economic Snapshot for Latin America
January 18, 2023
Economic Growth
The regional economy will lose steam in 2023 on tight financial conditions and lower average prices for key commodity exports. However, recovering tourism arrivals, China’s Covid-19 reopening and a likely soft landing of the U.S. economy will prop up the external sector. Outbreaks of sociopolitical unrest and tighter-than-expected monetary policy are key risks to the outlook.
Inflation Outlook
Regional inflation rose to 17.3% in December from 17.0% in November on the back of higher inflation in Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. Inflation likely peaked in Q4 and will fall this year due to slowing growth and lower external price pressures. Currency depreciation, extreme weather events and sociopolitical unrest pose upside risks to price pressures, however.
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5 years of Latin America economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Latin America Economic News
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Argentina: Economic activity records slowest expansion since February 2021 in November
January 26, 2023
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) rose 2.6% year on year in November (October: +4.5% yoy).
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Brazil: Consumer sentiment deteriorates in January
January 25, 2023
The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) fell to 85.8 in January from December's 88.0.
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Peru: Economic activity growth loses pace in November
January 23, 2023
Economic activity grew 1.7% year on year in November (October: +2.0% yoy).
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Argentina: Merchandise exports contract in December
January 23, 2023
Merchandise exports fell 7.1% in annual terms in December (November: +15.0% year-on-year).
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Peru: New government formed and snap elections likely following Castillo’s attempted coup
January 17, 2023
Political instability is likely to persist following the formation of a new government. Further loosening of the fiscal purse strings is expected ahead of elections in 2024.
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