Inflation slides in April

Latest reading: Inflation came in at 23.7% in April, down from March’s 24.2%. April marked the fourth month after the statistical office introduced methodological changes, lowering the weight of food—which had been a key inflation driver in previous months. The moderation was largely driven by a slower rise in prices for food. Moreover, price pressures for transportation softened. Accordingly, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 28.5% in April (March: 29.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 24.5% in April from the previous month's 24.1%. Finally, consumer prices rose 1.86% from the previous month in April, a smaller increase than the 3.90% increase recorded in March.

Outlook: Since January’s changes in inflation methodology, our panel has cut its 2025 inflation forecasts by 3.4 percentage points. Analysts now expect a stronger base effect and the lower weight of food in the basket to drive inflation below 2024’s level by more than previously anticipated.

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