Inflation declines in June

Latest reading: Inflation eased to 22.2% in June, following May’s 23.0%. June marked the fifth month after the statistical office introduced methodological changes, lowering the weight of food—which had been a key inflation driver in previous months. The deceleration was primarily due to lower price pressures for housing and utilities plus transportation. Annual average inflation fell to 26.6% in June (May: 27.6%). Meanwhile, core inflation fell to 22.4% in June from May’s 23.3%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.68% from the previous month in June, accelerating from May's 1.53% increase.

Outlook: After January’s change in inflation methodology, our panel has reduced its 2025 inflation forecasts by 3.4 percentage points. Panelists now expect a high base effect and the lower weight of food in the basket to push inflation under 2024’s level by more than previously anticipated.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Nigerian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 21 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Nigerian inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Nigerian inflation projections.

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