Uruguay Economic Outlook
May 19, 2020Economic scars from the pandemic and associated containment measures are gradually starting to show in monthly data. After contracting notably in January-February, exports tumbled in March and April, mainly due to vanishing demand from China, Argentina and Brazil. Moreover, recent figures show real wages fell in March on an annual basis, while employment levels continue to decline, boding ill for household spending. In better news, industrial production recovered somewhat in Q1 and, on 30 April, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB classification with a stable outlook. The ratings agency pointed out that, although the current pandemic is set to have a severe impact on the economy and fiscal accounts, investment projects and fiscal adjustment will improve the economic performance for the country once the crisis is over. Moreover, in early May Fitch Ratings highlighted the positive role of Uruguay’s strong institutions in tackling the crisis.
Uruguay Economic GrowthThe economy will contract this year. Covid-19 and lockdown measures will hit both key trading partners Brazil and Argentina, which, together with elevated uncertainty, will depress investment activity at home. The length and scope of the Covid-19 outbreak and social distancing measures pose the main downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 3.9% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 4.4%.
Uruguay Economy Data
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Uruguay Economic News
June 26, 2020
At its 25 June monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay increased its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q3 2020 to 7.0%–10.0%, from the previous quarter’s target of 3.0%–5.0%.
June 22, 2020
The economy slumped 1.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, after expanding 0.2% in the fourth quarter of last year, recording the worst contraction since Q2 2003.
June 11, 2020
Industrial production nosedived 19.3% year-on-year in April (March: +4.7% yoy).
June 5, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.6% from a month earlier in May, decelerating from the 2.0% jump recorded in April.
May 13, 2020
Industrial production soared 4.7% year-on-year in March (February: +1.0% yoy).