Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

September 15, 2020

GDP will have contracted notably in Q2 as the economy bore the brunt of the Covid-19 crisis. Both industrial output and merchandise exports nosedived in Q2 amid severed value chains, temporary shutdowns and suppressed demand from key trading partners Argentina, Brazil and China. Moreover, the unemployment rate climbed throughout the quarter, hitting a near 14-year high in June, spelling trouble for household spending. Turning to Q3, merchandise exports plunged by over a fifth in July amid a still-subdued trading environment. Meanwhile, on 31 August, the government presented its 2020–2024 draft budget bill, reflecting the impact of the health crisis on already weak fiscal accounts. The bill aims to lower the deficit to 2.7% of GDP in 2024 from a projected 6.6% in 2020, mainly through a reduction in primary spending, such as pensions and public payrolls.

Uruguay Economic Growth

The economy is set to shrink this year as coronavirus-induced restrictions hammer consumer and capital spending, while disrupted supply chains and weak demand from main trading partners will constrain exports. Weak fiscal metrics, which have deteriorated further due to the pandemic, and a second wave of infections pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 4.0% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 4.0%.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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