Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

June 14, 2022

Growth appeared to pick up in Q1. Agricultural prices, which hit levels not seen since 2008, led year-on-year export growth to average 35.1% in the quarter. Private consumption probably weathered the Omicron wave relatively well—the country has one of the world’s highest vaccination rates. This said, lingering Covid-19 restrictions and rising inflation will have capped spending. Turning to Q2, the government loosened Covid-19 restrictions in April, boosting economic activity. It also cut taxes and raised public sector pensions and wages that same month, supporting consumption at the expense of a wider fiscal deficit. In other news, the IMF concluded its visit on 3 June, and voiced support for short-term targeted measures to shield the economy from higher inflation. The Fund also stressed the importance of continued fiscal consolidation.

Uruguay Economic Growth

The economy’s expansion will be above its long-term pre-pandemic average this year. Elevated prices for agricultural commodities will strengthen the external sector, while looser Covid-19 restrictions should support domestic demand. Given that a recent referendum to block the president’s pro-market reforms only narrowly failed, further challenges to the president’s agenda pose risks. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 4.0% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2023, our panel estimates growth of 2.7%.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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