Uruguay Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020Economic prospects remained bleak in Q3, after Q2’s record GDP contraction on the coronavirus hit. Industrial output shrank at a faster rate in August, while goods exports fell sharply in the quarter, likely owing to muted demand from key trading partners. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose in August, hitting an over 14-year high, which likely hampered household spending in the quarter. Turning to Q4, due to a rise in new Covid-19 cases, the government announced at end-October that it will keep borders closed to tourism over the coming summer months, which could weigh on activity. The authorities also renewed restrictions in the city of Rivera where numbers are particularly high, suspending large events and limiting capacity in shops. In other news, on 8 October, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB- rating with a negative outlook, citing strained public finances due to the health crisis.
Uruguay Economic GrowthFollowing this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 shock, the economy is set to rebound in 2021. Household and capital spending are seen bouncing back, while exports should be supported by recovering demand from key trading partners. A prolonged health crisis and a frail fiscal position, exacerbated by the pandemic, pose key risks, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 4.1% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.
Uruguay Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||37.33||0.24 %||Jan 01|
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Uruguay Economic News
February 11, 2021
Industrial output increased 1.4% year-on-year in December (November: -10.7% yoy).
February 11, 2021
At its first meeting of the year on 11 February, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Uruguay kept the monetary policy rate on hold at 4.50%. The decision to keep the rate unchanged came against the backdrop of continued uncertainty regarding the economic environment and moderating inflationary pressures.
February 4, 2021
Consumer prices rose 1.60% from the previous month in January, swinging from December's 0.19% drop and marking the sharpest increase in prices since April 2020.
January 11, 2021
Industrial output nosedived 10.7% year-on-year in November (October: +4.8% yoy).
January 5, 2021
Consumer prices dropped 0.19% from the previous month in December, swinging from November's 0.28% increase.