Uruguay Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020Economic prospects remained bleak in Q3, after Q2’s record GDP contraction on the coronavirus hit. Industrial output shrank at a faster rate in August, while goods exports fell sharply in the quarter, likely owing to muted demand from key trading partners. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose in August, hitting an over 14-year high, which likely hampered household spending in the quarter. Turning to Q4, due to a rise in new Covid-19 cases, the government announced at end-October that it will keep borders closed to tourism over the coming summer months, which could weigh on activity. The authorities also renewed restrictions in the city of Rivera where numbers are particularly high, suspending large events and limiting capacity in shops. In other news, on 8 October, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB- rating with a negative outlook, citing strained public finances due to the health crisis.
Uruguay Economic GrowthFollowing this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 shock, the economy is set to rebound in 2021. Household and capital spending are seen bouncing back, while exports should be supported by recovering demand from key trading partners. A prolonged health crisis and a frail fiscal position, exacerbated by the pandemic, pose key risks, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 4.1% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.
Uruguay Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||37.33||0.24 %||Jan 01|
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Uruguay Economic News
November 11, 2020
Industrial output decreased 1.9% in year-on-year terms in September, which was markedly softer than August's 9.9% decrease.
November 5, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.58% in October over the previous month, a smaller increase than the 0.64% rise recorded in September.
November 5, 2020
At its meeting on 5 November, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Uruguay kept the the overnight interest rate—its newly implemented monetary policy rate—on hold at 4.50%. The decision to stand pat largely reflected heightened uncertainty with regard to the economic backdrop, despite still-elevated price pressures.
October 13, 2020
Industrial production plunged 9.9% year-on-year in August, a sharper decline than July’s 5.3% fall.
October 5, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.64% over the previous month in September, picking up from the 0.57% rise recorded in August and marking the sharpest increase in prices since April.