Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

February 13, 2018

GDP is expected to have recorded a healthy rate of expansion in 2017, with growth seen gaining steam in the fourth quarter. Industrial production rebounded in November, and export growth was robust in December, albeit moderating from the previous month’s buoyant 19.9% annual expansion. In addition, higher oil prices in Q4 likely supported the energy sector. Growth had slowed in Q3 on the back of decelerating private consumption. Meanwhile, Uruguay’s political scene was rocked by protests at the start of 2018. Farmers held protests on 23 January and 2 February over taxation in the agricultural sector, a key industry in Uruguay; they also demanded more favorable working conditions.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Rebounding investment and recovering momentum in main trading partners Argentina and Brazil should buttress economic growth in 2018. Our panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and also 3.1% in 2019.

Uruguay Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.43.43.43.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,38017,09916,74515,57514,943
GDP (USD bn)52.058.057.054.052.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.54.63.20.41.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.95.53.0-0.50.7
Investment (annual variation in %)18.23.82.4-9.20.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.84.11.13.10.4
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.67.57.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)58.060.261.464.360.9
Money (annual variation in %)11.215.03.75.68.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.58.58.39.48.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.18.68.98.79.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.96.310.6-1.9-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.857.357.176.946.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.1821.1324.3729.9129.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.2120.4123.2127.3130.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-4.9-4.5-2.1-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.9-2.6-1.10.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-1.4-0.9-0.20.4
Exports (USD billion)9.910.310.39.18.4
Imports (USD billion)12.311.611.39.38.0
Exports (annual variation in %)6.93.40.8-12.1-7.7
Imports (annual variation in %)14.7-5.4-3.1-17.0-13.9
International Reserves (USD)13.616.317.815.613.4
External Debt (% of GDP)46.245.749.352.750.3

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate28.480.24 %Feb 22

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