Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

Economic prospects remained bleak in Q3, after Q2’s record GDP contraction on the coronavirus hit. Industrial output shrank at a faster rate in August, while goods exports fell sharply in the quarter, likely owing to muted demand from key trading partners. Meanwhile, the jobless rate rose in August, hitting an over 14-year high, which likely hampered household spending in the quarter. Turning to Q4, due to a rise in new Covid-19 cases, the government announced at end-October that it will keep borders closed to tourism over the coming summer months, which could weigh on activity. The authorities also renewed restrictions in the city of Rivera where numbers are particularly high, suspending large events and limiting capacity in shops. In other news, on 8 October, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB- rating with a negative outlook, citing strained public finances due to the health crisis.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Following this year’s projected contraction due to the Covid-19 shock, the economy is set to rebound in 2021. Household and capital spending are seen bouncing back, while exports should be supported by recovering demand from key trading partners. A prolonged health crisis and a frail fiscal position, exacerbated by the pandemic, pose key risks, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 4.1% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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