Uruguay Economic Outlook
February 18, 2020The economy bounced back in the third quarter of 2019, after contracting in the first half of the year. Improved external sector metrics, coupled with a solid rebound in household spending, drove the recovery. That said, the pace of expansion was modest overall, restrained by shrinking infrastructure spending and a marked shedding of agricultural stock. Turning to the final quarter of last year, activity appears to have remained subdued according to available indicators. On the external front, merchandise export growth slumped in the quarter, likely dragged down by weakness in Argentina’s economy. Moreover, the industrial sector contracted in the first two months of Q4, boding ill for private sector activity, although it recovered some strength in December. On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped in the final stretch of the year, likely boosting consumer spending.
Uruguay Economic GrowthGrowth looks set to gain some speed this year, on the back of recovering domestic demand. An improved business environment, the construction of a new paper pulp plant and the government’s plans to boost public-private infrastructure projects should buttress fixed investment. Argentina’s dire economic situation poses a significant downside risk, however. FocusEconomics analysts see growth accelerating to 1.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen picking up to 2.1%.
Uruguay Economy Data
5 years of Uruguay economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||37.33||0.24 %||Jan 01|
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Uruguay Economic News
February 12, 2020
Industrial production expanded 3.8% in annual terms in December, contrasting November’s 1.8% drop.
February 6, 2020
Consumer prices surged 2.1% a month earlier in January, following a flat reading in the last month of 2019.
January 14, 2020
Consumer prices were flat from a month earlier in December, down from November’s 0.4% increase.
January 13, 2020
Industrial production dropped 1.8% in annual terms in November, a softer contraction than October’s 7.9% plunge.
December 26, 2019
At its 26 December monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay lowered its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q1 2020 to 6.0%–8.0%, from the previous quarter’s target of 7.0%–9.0%.