Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy bounced back in the third quarter of 2019, after contracting in the first half of the year. Improved external sector metrics, coupled with a solid rebound in household spending, drove the recovery. That said, the pace of expansion was modest overall, restrained by shrinking infrastructure spending and a marked shedding of agricultural stock. Turning to the final quarter of last year, activity appears to have remained subdued according to available indicators. On the external front, merchandise export growth slumped in the quarter, likely dragged down by weakness in Argentina’s economy. Moreover, the industrial sector contracted in the first two months of Q4, boding ill for private sector activity, although it recovered some strength in December. On the other hand, the unemployment rate dropped in the final stretch of the year, likely boosting consumer spending.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Growth looks set to gain some speed this year, on the back of recovering domestic demand. An improved business environment, the construction of a new paper pulp plant and the government’s plans to boost public-private infrastructure projects should buttress fixed investment. Argentina’s dire economic situation poses a significant downside risk, however. FocusEconomics analysts see growth accelerating to 1.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen picking up to 2.1%.

Uruguay Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)16,82915,57514,98017,20616,684
GDP (USD bn)58.154.052.160.158.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.20.41.72.61.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.0-0.50.14.61.5
Investment (annual variation in %)2.4-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.13.10.3-11.111.5
Unemployment Rate6.67.57.97.98.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.5-3.6-3.8-3.5-2.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)61.464.661.665.770.0
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.39.48.16.68.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.98.79.66.27.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.176.946.585.565.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD)24.3729.9129.3328.8332.42
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)23.2127.3130.1428.6630.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-0.90.60.8-0.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.8-0.50.30.5-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.01.31.92.12.4
Exports (USD billion)13.811.110.410.811.5
Imports (USD billion)11.89.88.58.79.1
Exports (annual variation in %)3.7-19.1-6.94.16.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.4-16.5-14.02.45.2
International Reserves (USD)17.815.613.416.015.6
External Debt (% of GDP)70.981.076.768.571.8

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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