Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

GDP expanded year-on-year for the first time since Q3 2019 in the second quarter. Growth was predominately due to a low base effect, but activity also increased in sequential terms in the period. In annual terms, domestic demand led the rebound as private consumption expanded robustly, while government consumption and fixed investment growth accelerated. On the external front, both exports and imports of goods and services bounced back at a healthy pace. Momentum likely transferred over to Q3, as the loosening of Covid-19 restrictions should have continued to spur household spending, while surging export growth suggests the external sector remained solid. Turning to the final quarter of the year, conditions should remain upbeat as strong progress on the vaccine rollout and relatively muted new Covid-19 cases in early October bode well for domestic activity.

Uruguay Economic Growth

The economy should expand this year as stronger investment supports domestic demand. In 2022, GDP growth should accelerate slightly, with exports likely benefiting from healthy foreign demand. However, fiscal prudence and lingering uncertainty over the evolution of the pandemic cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 3.0% in 2021. In 2022, our panel estimate growth of 3.2%, which is unchanged from the previous month’s forecast.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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