Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

The economy appears to be in good health despite an ongoing slump in industrial production: Exports rose sharply in September in annual and year-to-date terms, outpacing import growth by a comfortable margin. Moreover, the average salary index rose again in September, which bodes well for private consumption through the holiday season and year end. On 7 November, a preliminary agreement valued at USD 2.3 billion between UPM, the second-biggest pulp manufacturer in the world, and the government was signed. The agreement is the largest private investment deal in the country’s history and is expected to have a positive impact on industrial production moving forward. According to government officials, a second UPM pulp mill would add two percentage points to GDP and create numerous jobs. Officials also expect the deal to have a positive impact on public accounts and provide an opportunity to upgrade physical infrastructure.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Private consumption is expected to be buttressed by the ongoing wage gains and will support economic growth next year. Growth in fixed investment, which is likely to benefit from ongoing attempts to develop a hydrocarbon sector, should drive GDP growth. Potential regional political uncertainty could, however, drag on growth prospects. Panelists expect GDP to expand 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2019.

Uruguay Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.43.43.43.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,38017,09916,74515,57514,943
GDP (USD bn)52.058.057.054.052.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.54.63.20.41.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.95.53.0-0.50.7
Investment (annual variation in %)18.23.82.4-9.20.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.84.11.13.10.4
Unemployment Rate6.36.56.67.57.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.7-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)58.060.261.464.360.9
Money (annual variation in %)11.215.03.75.68.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.58.58.39.48.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.18.68.98.79.6
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)5.96.310.6-1.9-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.857.357.176.946.58
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.1821.1324.3729.9129.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.2120.4123.2127.3130.14
Current Account (% of GDP)-5.0-4.9-4.5-2.1-0.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.9-2.6-1.10.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-1.4-0.9-0.20.4
Exports (USD billion)9.910.310.39.18.4
Imports (USD billion)12.311.611.39.38.0
Exports (annual variation in %)6.93.40.8-12.1-7.7
Imports (annual variation in %)14.7-5.4-3.1-17.0-13.9
International Reserves (USD)13.616.317.815.613.4
External Debt (% of GDP)46.245.749.352.750.3

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate28.980.24 %Dec 06

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