Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

Economic scars from the pandemic and associated containment measures are gradually starting to show in monthly data. After contracting notably in January-February, exports tumbled in March and April, mainly due to vanishing demand from China, Argentina and Brazil. Moreover, recent figures show real wages fell in March on an annual basis, while employment levels continue to decline, boding ill for household spending. In better news, industrial production recovered somewhat in Q1 and, on 30 April, S&P Global Ratings affirmed the country’s BBB classification with a stable outlook. The ratings agency pointed out that, although the current pandemic is set to have a severe impact on the economy and fiscal accounts, investment projects and fiscal adjustment will improve the economic performance for the country once the crisis is over. Moreover, in early May Fitch Ratings highlighted the positive role of Uruguay’s strong institutions in tackling the crisis.

Uruguay Economic Growth

The economy will contract this year. Covid-19 and lockdown measures will hit both key trading partners Brazil and Argentina, which, together with elevated uncertainty, will depress investment activity at home. The length and scope of the Covid-19 outbreak and social distancing measures pose the main downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 3.9% in 2020, which is down 1.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, the economy is seen expanding 4.4%.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20617,074-  
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.159.9-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.6-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.5-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.6-3.8-3.5-2.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.5-  
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.4-  
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.5-  
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.1-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-  
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.769.2-  

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Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

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