Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

May 14, 2019

Incoming data for the first quarter of this year has been bleak thus far, after contractions in private consumption and investment activity led growth to fall to a near three-year low in the final quarter of last year. Industrial output contracted on annual basis in Q1, as both refinery and manufacturing production tumbled. This has weighed on the external sector, with merchandise exports falling in Q1 against the backdrop of a still-frail regional environment and sustained fears over a global trade war. Furthermore, on the domestic front, headwinds to consumer demand appear to have carried over into this year: The peso continued to weaken throughout Q1, which, coupled with elevated unemployment in January-February, likely weighed on household spending in the quarter.

Uruguay Economic Growth

Growth is seen losing further traction this year, against the backdrop of a weak external environment in the region and rising fears of slowing global growth. Furthermore, a weaker peso, still-high unemployment and elevated inflationary pressures are likely to weigh on household spending growth. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 1.2% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.

Uruguay Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.43.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)16,86016,79215,57514,94317,177
GDP (USD bn)57.557.253.352.460.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.63.20.41.52.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.53.0-0.50.14.4
Investment (annual variation in %)3.82.4-9.2-1.6-15.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)4.11.13.10.3-11.1
Unemployment Rate6.56.67.57.97.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-3.5-3.6-3.9-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)57.558.658.963.664.5
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)8.58.39.48.16.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.68.98.79.66.2
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)7.357.176.946.585.56
Exchange Rate (vs USD)21.1324.3729.9129.3328.83
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)20.4123.2127.3130.1428.66
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-3.1-0.80.81.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.0-1.8-0.40.40.9
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.81.61.20.60.0
Exports (USD billion)9.19.17.77.07.9
Imports (USD billion)10.910.88.97.67.9
Exports (annual variation in %)4.10.7-15.9-8.912.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.2-1.2-17.4-14.03.5
International Reserves (USD)16.317.815.613.416.0
External Debt (% of GDP)65.070.480.276.664.5

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Uruguay Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate35.140.24 %May 13

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