Uruguay Economic Outlook
July 9, 2019The economy contracted for the first time in nearly four years in the first quarter. Slower wage growth, rising unemployment and a weaker peso caused private consumption to contract once again, which, coupled with sliding fixed investment due to tumbling private sector activity, led a downturn in domestic demand. On the external front, feeble demand from Argentina and Brazil, the country’s key trading partners, caused exports to slump for a fifth consecutive quarter, while the tourism sector remained in the doldrums. In the political arena, Uruguay held presidential primaries on 30 June. The opposition National Party and its leader Luis Lacalle Pou won decisively, beating the ruling Broad Front coalition and its candidate Daniel Martínez. The Colorado Party, headed by Ernesto Talvi, trailed in third place. The results signal the 27 October presidential elections will be a closely fought contest.
Uruguay Economic GrowthGrowth will nosedive this year, against the backdrop of a weak external environment, amid downturns in Argentina and Brazil, and deteriorating domestic demand. Stagnant real wages, a weaker peso and high unemployment will dent household spending growth, although the recently signed EU-Mercosur free trade deal should boost growth in the medium-term. FocusEconomics analysts see growth at 0.8% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.
Uruguay Economy Data
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|Exchange Rate||35.11||0.24 %||Jul 11|
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Uruguay Economic News
July 12, 2019
Industrial production fell 2.5% over the same month of the previous year in May, contrasting a mild 0.4% year-on-year increase in April which had marked a short-lived return to output growth.
July 12, 2019
At its 12 July monetary policy meeting, the Central Bank of Uruguay maintained its target for the growth rate of the M1+ money supply in Q3 2019 at 8.0%–10.0%, unchanged from previous quarter’s target.
July 4, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.6% from a month earlier in June, up slightly from May’s 0.4% increase.
June 20, 2019
The economy shrank 0.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter’s 0.6% expansion and marking the first contraction since the 2015 recession.
June 13, 2019
Industrial production rose 0.4% over the same month of the previous year in April, rebounding from a 5.5% year-on-year drop in March which had marked the worst reading so far this year.