Uruguay Economic Forecast

Uruguay Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

GDP growth eased in Q3, due to a moderation in domestic demand tied to a fading base effect. That said, output rose robustly in sequential terms, suggesting that the economy continued to recover. Private consumption growth moderated notably in the quarter, while government consumption and fixed investment growth ticked down. Turning to Q4, conditions likely continued to strengthen in sequential terms as the unemployment rate hit a three-year low in November, while industrial production growth remained robust in October–November. Shifting to this year, inflation remains elevated and new Covid-19 cases spiked in early January, boding poorly for activity in Q1. In other news, Fitch Ratings recently decided to keep Uruguay’s credit rating at ‘BBB-’ but raised its outlook from negative to stable, citing a healthier fiscal position and confidence in the government’s spending consolidation plans.

Uruguay Economic Growth

GDP growth is set to slow slightly this year due to a fading base effect. That said, an improved labor market and looser Covid-19 restrictions should support household spending. Moreover, exports should benefit from some reduction in supply chain disruptions. However, fiscal prudence and lingering pandemic-related uncertainty cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 3.3% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month’s forecast. In 2023, our panel estimates growth of 2.6%.

Uruguay Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.53.53.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)15,57514,98017,20616,68415,938
GDP (USD bn)54.052.160.158.556.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.41.72.61.60.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)-0.50.14.61.50.5
Investment (annual variation in %)-9.2-1.6-15.7-2.71.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.3-11.111.5-1.5
Unemployment Rate7.57.97.98.48.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.4-3.7-3.5-2.9-3.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.961.460.763.566.3
Money (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)9.48.16.68.08.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.79.66.27.67.9
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)6.946.585.565.305.86
Exchange Rate (vs USD)29.9129.3328.8332.4237.33
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)27.3130.1428.6630.7135.24
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.9-0.10.70.10.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.10.40.10.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.31.92.42.42.9
Exports (USD billion)11.110.411.111.511.5
Imports (USD billion)9.88.58.79.18.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-19.1-6.96.64.3-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.5-14.02.45.1-5.8
International Reserves (USD)15.613.416.015.614.5
External Debt (% of GDP)81.076.768.770.876.2

Sample Report

5 years of Uruguay economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Uruguay Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate37.330.24 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Uruguay Economic News

Search form