United Kingdom: The economy loses momentum in the three months to November

According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.2% in November over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from October’s 0.1% increase. The quarter-on-quarter expansion for the September-November period was 0.3%, matching market expectations and down from 0.4% growth in the August-October period. Growth in September-November was the slowest in six months, and comes amid sluggish momentum in the rest of the EU and rising uncertainty over Brexit. All in all, the monthly GDP data suggests a notable slowdown in the final quarter of the year.

Looking at a sector-by-sector picture, the slowdown in September-November came on the back of a significant contraction in manufacturing, which was in turn linked to soft car production and a weak pharmaceutical sector. Growth in the services sector was steady, albeit substantially below the highs seen during the summer, while the construction sector continued to perform strongly.

UK GDP Forecast

The Central Bank expects the economy to expand 1.7% in both 2019 and 2020. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020.