Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

February 4, 2020

Growth momentum appears to have weakened in the final quarter of last year after the economy picked up steam in the third quarter. The economic sentiment indicator weakened, on average, in Q4 compared to Q3, amid a broad-based deterioration led by slumping confidence in the industrial, retail trade and services sectors. This signaled that industrial output will have contracted for the seventh consecutive month in December, while retail sales likely decelerated further in the same month after growing at the weakest pace in nearly a year in November. On the external front, growth dynamics were similarly downbeat: Merchandise exports slumped at the sharpest pace in over four years in November against a backdrop of faltering global and intra-EU trade.

Estonia Economic Growth

Growth is set to lose steam in 2020, hurt by waning productivity gains due to much laxer investment activity growth and as feeble demand among key trading partners weighs on the external sector. That said, private consumption should remain robust this year, amid still-tight labor market conditions and rising wages, thus cushioning the slowdown. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 2.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% again in 2021.

Estonia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)1.31.31.31.31.3
GDP per capita (EUR)15,25615,80416,48518,05319,739
GDP (EUR bn)20.120.821.723.826.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.91.82.65.74.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.04.94.52.74.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.6-3.20.812.51.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.90.33.44.04.1
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.78.05.63.61.0
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.70.1-0.5-0.8-0.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)10.510.010.29.38.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.911.69.55.810.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.5-0.92.23.43.4
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.50.10.83.73.4
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-1.6-2.0-0.73.62.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.331.111.111.131.18
Current Account (% of GDP)0.81.81.72.72.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.20.40.40.60.5
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.0-0.9-0.8-0.8-1.0
Exports (EUR billion)11.010.711.312.012.7
Imports (EUR billion)12.011.612.012.913.7
Exports (annual variation in %)0.5-3.05.66.55.8
Imports (annual variation in %)1.1-3.74.16.86.6

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Estonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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