Estonia Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020Although activity started to firm following the pandemic-induced fall in GDP in Q2, signs have emerged that the recovery is waning. Industrial production contracted more heavily in August than in July as manufacturing output, particularly of metal products and electrical equipment, shrank. Similarly, conditions on the external front remained somewhat fragile, with the decline in goods exports deepening in August on lower shipments to key trading partners Finland and Sweden. Moreover, consumers remained as pessimistic in Q3 as they were during the worst of the health crisis in Q2, likely weighing on household spending, as suggested by retail sales growth losing pace in July–August from June’s over one-year high. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook in late September, owing to its sound fiscal management and sustained current account surpluses.
Estonia Economic GrowthAlthough the Covid-19 fallout will pummel activity this year, the economy is seen rebounding back to growth next year as domestic and external demand gradually firm. An improving labor market is poised to support incomes and thus private consumption, while reduced uncertainty props up investment. The recent virus resurgence seen across the EU poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.1% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2022.
Estonia Economy Data
5 years of Estonia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Estonia Economic News
March 10, 2021
Industrial output increased 1.0% in January in year-on-year calendar-adjusted terms (December: +0.8% yoy ca).
March 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.86% over the previous month in February, quickening from the 0.65% increase logged in January.
March 1, 2021
GDP fell 1.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2020, amid rising Covid-19 cases and associated containment measures.
February 5, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.65% over the previous month in January, quickening from the 0.01% uptick logged in December 2020.
February 2, 2021
Industrial output increased 0.8% year-on-year in calendar-day adjusted terms in December 2020, contrasting the 1.5% dip recorded in the previous month.