Estonia Economic Outlook
June 30, 2020The economy likely slipped into recession in the second quarter, after shrinking for the first time in a decade in the first quarter. Lockdown measures imposed in March constrained domestic activity in Q1, while the external sector was hit hard by falling tourist arrivals and depressed foreign demand. Turning to available data for Q2, in April industrial output plunged at the sharpest rate in over 10 years amid widespread business closures; retail sales contracted by over a quarter as households delayed non-essential spending; and exports plunged on eviscerated demand from the EU. That said, private sector activity seems to have bottomed out in May as economic sentiment stabilized and consumer confidence improved from April amid the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions.
Estonia Economic GrowthGDP is expected to shrink significantly this year, as Covid-19 wreaks havoc on the economy. Sliding private consumption and plunging investment activity are set to erode domestic demand, while a collapse in foreign demand and depressed tourist arrivals will likely hamper the external sector. Higher public spending should soften the overall downturn, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 7.1% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, GDP is seen rebounding and increasing 6.0%.
Estonia Economy Data
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Estonia Economic News
July 31, 2020
Industrial output slid 5.5% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted in June, softening from May’s 17.6% plunge which had marked the steepest drop since October 2009. June's smaller drop was largely driven by a milder contraction in manufacturing production.
July 13, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.91% from the previous month in June, contrasting May's 0.67% drop.
June 30, 2020
Industrial output slid 17.7% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted in May (April: -17.0%), according to data released by Statistics Estonia.
June 8, 2020
Consumer prices fell 0.67% from the previous month in May, following April's softer 0.4% drop.
May 29, 2020
Industrial production sank 16.9% year-on-year in April (March: -8.7% yoy).