Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

November 21, 2017

The resumption of EU investment inflows and a recovery in the external sector propelled economic growth in the first half of the year to its fastest rate since 2011. Economic growth in the second half of the year is set to decelerate largely because of a base effect, not waning growth momentum. In September, industrial production logged its fifteenth consecutive month of growth. Retail sales also increased in the same month, buttressed by rising wages and declining unemployment, which dropped to its lowest rate in two years. The healthy growth momentum in the country was mentioned by Fitch Ratings as one of the main reasons for revising Estonia’s outlook from stable to positive and keeping its rate at A+ in early November. The credit rating agency lauded the prudent fiscal policy and low debt levels, which are among the lowest in A-rated countries.

Estonia Economic Growth

Improving external demand, along with healthy growth in fixed investment and private consumption, will likely support the domestic economy in 2018 and 2019. FocusEconomics panelists project that GDP will expand 3.0% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel expects GDP growth of 2.9%.

Estonia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)1.31.31.31.31.3
GDP per capita (EUR)13,53614,31115,01415,42415,942
GDP (EUR bn)17.918.919.820.320.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.31.42.81.41.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.33.73.24.74.3
Investment (annual variation in %)12.8-2.9-8.1-3.4-2.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.54.24.3-2.21.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.75.26.78.05.6
Unemployment Rate10.08.67.36.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-0.20.70.10.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.710.210.710.19.5
Money (annual variation in %)7.16.79.911.69.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.4-0.5-0.92.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)4.23.20.50.10.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.34.1-1.6-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-0.40.92.22.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.4-0.10.20.40.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.9
Exports (EUR billion)10.711.111.110.911.2
Imports (EUR billion)12.012.112.111.712.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.53.10.1-2.13.0
Imports (annual variation in %)12.10.20.3-3.12.7

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Estonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.180.65 %Dec 06
Stock Market1,227-0.38 %Dec 06

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