Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

January 30, 2018

Domestic economic activity appears to have lost some steam in the fourth quarter from the previous one, but remained buoyant nonetheless. Industrial production in November expanded at the slowest pace in year-on-year terms since August 2016, and retail sales contracted in the same month owing in part to higher inflationary pressures. Retail sales were lower despite declining unemployment, which dropped in November to the lowest rate since June 2008. Contrasting slower growth in the domestic economy, growth in the external sector picked up. Exports expanded at a solid rate in both October and November thanks to improved demand from Estonia’s main trading partners. The expansions observed in the first two months of Q4 were spearheaded by robust sales of mineral products as the shale oil industry recovers on the back of higher prices for energy products.

Estonia Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to decelerate in 2018 and 2019 from 2017’s multi-year high but is expected to remain buoyant. Inflows of EU funds will boost growth investment, and changes to the income tax system will boost growth in private consumption. FocusEconomics panelists project that GDP will expand 3.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2019, the panel expects GDP growth of 2.9%.

Estonia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)1.31.31.31.31.3
GDP per capita (EUR)13,53614,31115,01415,42415,942
GDP (EUR bn)17.918.919.820.320.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.31.42.81.41.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.33.73.24.74.3
Investment (annual variation in %)12.8-2.9-8.1-3.4-2.8
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.54.24.3-2.21.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)7.75.26.78.05.6
Unemployment Rate10.08.67.36.2-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-0.20.70.10.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.710.210.710.19.5
Money (annual variation in %)7.16.79.911.69.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.51.4-0.5-0.92.2
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)4.23.20.50.10.8
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)2.34.1-1.6-  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.750.250.05-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.321.381.21-  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.291.331.33-  -  
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.0-0.40.92.22.0
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)-0.4-0.10.20.40.4
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-1.3-1.0-1.0-0.9-0.9
Exports (EUR billion)10.711.111.110.911.2
Imports (EUR billion)12.012.112.111.712.0
Exports (annual variation in %)3.53.10.1-2.13.0
Imports (annual variation in %)12.10.20.3-3.12.7

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Estonia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.230.65 %Feb 22
Stock Market1,284-0.38 %Feb 22

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