Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

May 28, 2019

Available data suggests economic activity decelerated in the first quarter of the year, after growth edged up to a one-year high in Q4 2018. Industrial production growth lost traction in Q1, owing to contracting energy output which more than offset healthy manufacturing output growth. The external sector also weakened at the beginning of 2019, with exports growth slipping to a one-year low in Q1 against the backdrop of feebler external demand conditions. Moreover, average economic sentiment weakened in Q1, chiefly due to tumbling confidence in the industrial and construction sectors. In other news, Moody’s affirmed Estonia’s A1 credit rating on 10 May, praising the resiliency of its economy and extremely low government debt levels.

Estonia Economic Growth

Growth is expected to soften this year, against the backdrop of frailer external demand and as labor shortages curb activity growth. Nevertheless, the overall expansion should remain robust as the tight labor market bolsters household consumption, while EU-linked funds prop up fixed investment growth. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 3.2% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before decelerating to 2.5% in 2020.

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Estonia Facts

Exchange Rate1.130.65 %Jun 13
Stock Market1,252-0.38 %Jun 13

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