Estonia Economic Outlook
May 31, 2022Q1 GDP likely grew at a healthy annual pace. However, the expansion will have been slower than in Q4, and the economy likely registered a contraction in quarter-on-quarter terms. Looking at available indicators, industrial activity in January–March grew at a softer year-on-year pace than in Q4. Meanwhile, retail sales growth also eased amid the red-hot inflation rate and the Omicron wave, although a tight labor market, government aid and pent-up savings likely sheltered spending somewhat. In Q2, industrial activity is likely suffering from global commodity market shocks: Producer prices in April were at a 27-year high. That said, entry requirements for international travelers were eased on 1 April, which should be supporting tourism. In May, Estonia adopted a nearly EUR 900 million supplementary budget for defense spending, energy security and refugee aid, which should boost domestic demand.
Estonia Economic GrowthIn 2022, economic growth is set to slow notably from last year’s rally, owing to inflation stifling private spending and the fallout from the Ukraine war hampering trade and industrial activity. Still, incoming EU funds, a robust labor market and major growth in military spending will support growth. Energy insecurity and slowdowns among trading partners cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 2.3% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2023.
Estonia Economy Data
5 years of Estonia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Estonia Economic News
January 17, 2023
Harmonized inflation eased to 17.5% in December below November’s 21.4%.
January 5, 2023
Industrial output nosedived 12.2% year on year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in November, which was a deterioration from October's 5.9% decrease.
December 7, 2022
Harmonized inflation dropped to 21.4% in November below October’s 22.5%.
December 1, 2022
Industrial output fell 5.8% year on year in seasonally and calendar-adjusted terms in October (September: -7.9% ).
November 30, 2022
GDP contracted 2.4% year on year in the third quarter, swinging from the 0.4% expansion recorded in the second quarter.