Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

September 29, 2020

Comprehensive national accounts data revealed that the economy shrank at the sharpest pace since the 2009 global financial crisis in Q2 as the Covid-19 outbreak and associated restrictions hammered consumer and capital spending as well as exports. Heading into Q3, a recovery in activity is underway, although it seems to be slowing somewhat. After surging in June over the previous month, industrial production lost considerable stride in July on a sharp contraction in mining activity and waning manufacturing output. On the external front, goods exports slipped in July after flatlining in June, as shipments of mineral products and to Nordic countries fell. That said, sentiment indicators have been on the rise since the worst of the health crisis in Q2, boding well for sustaining momentum.

Estonia Economic Growth

Economic activity is poised to contract at the sharpest clip in over a decade this year as restrictions to contain the spread of the pandemic hit domestic and external demand hard. Next year, however, output is expected to rebound and grow at a strong pace as demand revives. Sluggish recoveries in the Eurozone and a sharp resurgence of Covid-19 cases cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 5.2% in 2020. In 2021, GDP is seen growing 4.7%, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Estonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)15,80416,48518,05319,73921,257
GDP (EUR bn)20.821.723.826.028.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.20.812.51.713.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.5-0.8-0.6-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.0-
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-0.9-0.8-0.8-1.0-0.8
Exports (EUR billion)10.711.312.012.713.4
Imports (EUR billion)11.612.012.913.714.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-

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Estonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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