Estonia Economic Outlook
October 27, 2020Although activity started to firm following the pandemic-induced fall in GDP in Q2, signs have emerged that the recovery is waning. Industrial production contracted more heavily in August than in July as manufacturing output, particularly of metal products and electrical equipment, shrank. Similarly, conditions on the external front remained somewhat fragile, with the decline in goods exports deepening in August on lower shipments to key trading partners Finland and Sweden. Moreover, consumers remained as pessimistic in Q3 as they were during the worst of the health crisis in Q2, likely weighing on household spending, as suggested by retail sales growth losing pace in July–August from June’s over one-year high. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook in late September, owing to its sound fiscal management and sustained current account surpluses.
Estonia Economic GrowthAlthough the Covid-19 fallout will pummel activity this year, the economy is seen rebounding back to growth next year as domestic and external demand gradually firm. An improving labor market is poised to support incomes and thus private consumption, while reduced uncertainty props up investment. The recent virus resurgence seen across the EU poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.1% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2022.
Estonia Economy Data
5 years of Estonia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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Estonia Economic News
July 8, 2021
Industrial output grew 15.9% year-on-year in seasonally- and calendar-adjusted terms in May, moderating from April's 16.8% increase.
July 7, 2021
Consumer prices rose 1.17% in June over the previous month, accelerating from the 0.94% rise logged in May.
Estonia: Industrial output grows at fastest pace in over two years in April amid favorable base effect
June 8, 2021
Industrial output expanded 16.8% year-on-year in calendar-adjusted terms in April, which followed March's 1.6% increase, benefitting from a substantial low base effect.
June 7, 2021
Consumer prices increased 0.94% in May over the previous month, accelerating from April's 0.41% rise.
May 31, 2021
GDP rose 5.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, rebounding from the 1.2% drop logged in the prior quarter and marking the first return to growth after four consecutive quarters of contraction. Q1’s bounce-back was mainly led by government spending, which rose 7.2% in annual terms in the quarter (Q4: +4.8% yoy) and marked the strongest increase in over 13 years.