Estonia Economic Outlook
September 23, 2019Growth lost considerable pace in the second quarter. Slower total consumption dented domestic demand growth in Q2, as public spending growth came to near a halt and household consumption decelerated sharply, amid intensifying inflationary pressures and a jump in the unemployment rate. That said, fixed investment surged in the quarter, driven by booming private sector activity. On the external front, export growth fell, while import growth jumped—reflecting an upturn in fixed investment—thus weighing on the overall expansion. Turning to Q3, metrics appear largely downbeat. In July, both industrial production and exports contracted for a second consecutive month, while business sentiment fell into pessimistic territory, where it stayed in August. That said, consumer demand was seemingly strong, reflected in booming retail sales in July and a jump in consumer confidence in August.
Estonia Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to weaken this year and next, amid a broad-based slowdown. Private consumption growth is seen softening further, weighed on by less upbeat labor market dynamics, while investment activity will lose considerable traction, causing productivity growth to slow. Furthermore, the external sector’s performance will likely be dented by the global slowdown. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 3.4% this year, before decelerating to 2.6% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
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|Exchange Rate||1.10||0.65 %||Sep 04|
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Estonia Economic News
October 8, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.2% over the previous month in September, contrasting a 0.7% month-on-month increase in August.
October 1, 2019
Industrial output fell 2.5% in annual working-day adjusted terms in August, compared to a sharper 5.5% year-on-year (previously reported: +5.3%) contraction in July.
September 6, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.7% over the previous month in August, contrasting a 0.1% month-on-month drop in July.
September 2, 2019
Industrial output fell 5.3% in annual working-day adjusted terms in July, compared to a slightly softer 3.8% year-on-year (previously reported: +3.2%) dip in June.
August 30, 2019
The economy grew 3.6% in annual terms in the second quarter, decelerating markedly from the first quarter’s 5.0% expansion, according to a comprehensive estimate released by Estonia’s Statistical Institute on 30 August.