Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

June 30, 2020

The economy likely slipped into recession in the second quarter, after shrinking for the first time in a decade in the first quarter. Lockdown measures imposed in March constrained domestic activity in Q1, while the external sector was hit hard by falling tourist arrivals and depressed foreign demand. Turning to available data for Q2, in April industrial output plunged at the sharpest rate in over 10 years amid widespread business closures; retail sales contracted by over a quarter as households delayed non-essential spending; and exports plunged on eviscerated demand from the EU. That said, private sector activity seems to have bottomed out in May as economic sentiment stabilized and consumer confidence improved from April amid the gradual easing of lockdown restrictions.

Estonia Economic Growth

GDP is expected to shrink significantly this year, as Covid-19 wreaks havoc on the economy. Sliding private consumption and plunging investment activity are set to erode domestic demand, while a collapse in foreign demand and depressed tourist arrivals will likely hamper the external sector. Higher public spending should soften the overall downturn, however. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy contracting 7.1% in 2020, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, GDP is seen rebounding and increasing 6.0%.

Estonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (EUR)15,80416,48518,05319,73921,257
GDP (EUR bn)20.821.723.826.028.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.20.812.51.713.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.5-0.8-0.6-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.0-
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)
Current Account (% of GDP)
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-0.9-0.8-0.8-1.0-0.8
Exports (EUR billion)10.711.312.012.713.4
Imports (EUR billion)11.612.012.913.714.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-

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Estonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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