Estonia Economic Forecast

Estonia Economic Outlook

October 27, 2020

Although activity started to firm following the pandemic-induced fall in GDP in Q2, signs have emerged that the recovery is waning. Industrial production contracted more heavily in August than in July as manufacturing output, particularly of metal products and electrical equipment, shrank. Similarly, conditions on the external front remained somewhat fragile, with the decline in goods exports deepening in August on lower shipments to key trading partners Finland and Sweden. Moreover, consumers remained as pessimistic in Q3 as they were during the worst of the health crisis in Q2, likely weighing on household spending, as suggested by retail sales growth losing pace in July–August from June’s over one-year high. Meanwhile, Fitch Ratings affirmed the country’s credit rating at AA- with a stable outlook in late September, owing to its sound fiscal management and sustained current account surpluses.

Estonia Economic Growth

Although the Covid-19 fallout will pummel activity this year, the economy is seen rebounding back to growth next year as domestic and external demand gradually firm. An improving labor market is poised to support incomes and thus private consumption, while reduced uncertainty props up investment. The recent virus resurgence seen across the EU poses a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy growing 4.1% in 2021, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.5% in 2022.

Estonia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)1.31.31.31.31.3
GDP per capita (EUR)15,80416,48518,05319,73921,257
GDP (EUR bn)20.821.723.826.028.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.82.65.74.84.3
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.94.52.74.23.2
Investment (annual variation in %)-3.20.812.51.713.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.33.44.04.0-2.3
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)8.05.63.61.04.0
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.1-0.5-0.8-0.6-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)10.010.29.38.48.4
Money (annual variation in %)11.69.55.810.59.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)-0.92.23.43.41.8
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.10.83.73.42.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-2.0-0.73.62.6-0.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)-  -  -  -  -  
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.111.111.131.181.12
Current Account (% of GDP)1.81.72.72.02.8
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)0.40.40.60.50.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)-0.9-0.8-0.8-1.0-0.8
Exports (EUR billion)10.711.312.012.713.4
Imports (EUR billion)11.612.012.913.714.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-3.05.66.55.85.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.74.16.86.63.5

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Estonia Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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