Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

Economic momentum likely remains robust so far in 2019, although hard data is still limited. Muted price pressures and healthy private-sector credit growth—which clocked roughly 11% in January according to the Central Bank—should be supporting private consumption. This comes after the economy surged in Q4 2018 thanks to the construction and services sectors, with construction supported by projects in the private residential housing, tourism and energy sectors. In 2018 as a whole, the economy was the star performer in the CENAM region, benefiting from a solid labor market and the expansion in the U.S., which fueled exports, remittances and tourism revenue.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth should ebb this year due to a tough base effect and a slower expansion in the United States. However, strong fixed investment and private consumption should support the economy, which will continue to grow significantly faster than the regional average. Downside risks are primarily external, and the economy is vulnerable to higher oil prices and a faster-than-expected global economic slowdown. Moreover, the country is exposed to extreme weather events. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 5.1% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 4.6%.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.89.910.010.110.2
GDP per capita (USD)6,4106,6936,9037,1887,475
GDP (USD bn)62.766.268.972.476.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.97.67.06.64.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.63.85.34.84.7
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.512.320.611.40.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.814.88.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.3-2.70.0-2.8-3.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.036.035.136.938.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.710.511.610.010.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.91.62.31.74.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.00.81.63.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.256.255.005.505.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)42.6944.2845.5346.3447.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)41.7143.4844.9845.9347.31
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.1-3.3-1.9-1.1-0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.2-1.3-0.8-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.6-7.6
Exports (USD billion)9.49.99.49.810.1
Imports (USD billion)16.817.316.917.417.7
Exports (annual variation in %)5.55.0-4.64.22.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.82.8-2.12.91.7
International Reserves (USD)4.74.95.36.06.8
External Debt (% of GDP)38.239.738.738.7-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate50.480.80 %Feb 14

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