Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

The economy contracted 7.2% in Q3 according to preliminary data, much milder than Q2’s 16.9% collapse. The softer drop was likely due to an incipient recovery in tourism following the reopening of borders in July. Moreover, remittances surged in the quarter as the U.S. labor market recovered, which should have buttressed private consumption. However, the economic panorama was still downbeat: The hotels, bars and restaurants subsector fell, as visitor arrivals were still down sharply year-on-year, while the retail and transport sectors also declined. Turning to Q4, momentum should be improving, with visitor arrivals likely up from Q3. However, the extension of the curfew in mid-October will continue weighing on domestic activity, while Haiti’s decision to impose a USD 800 fee on the Dominican Republic’s exports will hurt the external sector—Haiti is the country’s second most important trading partner.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

The economy should bounce back next year, supported by a recovery in the U.S.—the key source of exports and remittances—and stronger domestic activity. However, a potentially slow recovery in tourist arrivals, further waves of Covid-19, instability in neighboring Haiti and elevated public debt are risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.2% in 2021, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecasts, before expanding 4.8% in 2022.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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