Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

February 18, 2020

The economy gained significant speed in the fourth quarter according to recent data, with growth underpinned by monetary loosening earlier in the year. The construction sector performed particularly well in the quarter thanks to a series of public and private investment projects, while the financial sector also expanded strongly thanks to the Central Bank’s measures to boost liquidity. However, the hospitality sector contracted, likely linked to lower visitor arrivals. Turning to the first quarter of 2020, early signs suggest momentum remained robust. Private credit growth topped 12% in January, which should be spurring domestic demand. In late January, the government issued USD 2.5 billion in bonds, which will help cover this year’s fiscal deficit. Moreover, the historically low interest rates assigned to the bonds are an encouraging sign regarding investors’ confidence in the economy.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth will likely ebb somewhat this year on a slowdown in the U.S.—the key source of remittances, tourist arrivals and exports—but will outperform regional peers nonetheless. Instability in neighboring Haiti, uncertainty over the duration of the tourism downturn and the still-uncertain impact of the coronavirus pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy expanding 4.5% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.5% again in 2021.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)9.910.010.110.210.3
GDP per capita (USD)6,8057,1397,5207,8698,328
GDP (USD bn)67.371.275.880.085.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.16.96.74.77.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)5.16.55.53.95.2
Investment (annual variation in %)9.318.912.3-0.313.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)14.88.5-  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.7-0.3-2.9-3.3-2.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)36.035.136.938.939.6
Money (annual variation in %)10.211.610.010.34.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)1.62.31.74.21.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.00.81.63.33.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.255.005.505.255.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)44.2845.5346.3447.8050.27
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4844.9845.9347.3149.63
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.2-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3
Exports (USD billion)9.99.49.810.110.9
Imports (USD billion)17.316.917.417.720.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.0-4.64.23.07.6
Imports (annual variation in %)2.8-2.12.91.914.0
International Reserves (USD)4.95.36.06.87.6
External Debt (% of GDP)39.137.437.037.2-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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