Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook
November 10, 2020The economy contracted 7.2% in Q3 according to preliminary data, much milder than Q2’s 16.9% collapse. The softer drop was likely due to an incipient recovery in tourism following the reopening of borders in July. Moreover, remittances surged in the quarter as the U.S. labor market recovered, which should have buttressed private consumption. However, the economic panorama was still downbeat: The hotels, bars and restaurants subsector fell, as visitor arrivals were still down sharply year-on-year, while the retail and transport sectors also declined. Turning to Q4, momentum should be improving, with visitor arrivals likely up from Q3. However, the extension of the curfew in mid-October will continue weighing on domestic activity, while Haiti’s decision to impose a USD 800 fee on the Dominican Republic’s exports will hurt the external sector—Haiti is the country’s second most important trading partner.
Dominican Republic Economic GrowthThe economy should bounce back next year, supported by a recovery in the U.S.—the key source of exports and remittances—and stronger domestic activity. However, a potentially slow recovery in tourist arrivals, further waves of Covid-19, instability in neighboring Haiti and elevated public debt are risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.2% in 2021, down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecasts, before expanding 4.8% in 2022.
Dominican Republic Economy Data
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Dominican Republic Facts
|Exchange Rate||52.96||0.80 %||Jan 01|
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Dominican Republic Economic News
January 14, 2021
Consumer prices rose 0.48% over the previous month in December, which was below the 0.60% rise recorded in November.
December 30, 2020
At its end-December meeting, the Central Bank (BCRD) kept the policy rate at 3.00% for the fourth month running, following sizable easing earlier in the year. The decision not to cut further was likely influenced by improving domestic dynamics, with the decline in economic activity continuing to moderate through November.
December 29, 2020
Economic activity fell 3.4% compared to the same month of the previous year in November, which was a less pronounced contraction than October's 4.3% decrease and marked the best result since February.
December 14, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.60% over the previous month in November, a smaller increase than October's 0.66% rise.
November 30, 2020
At its end-November meeting, the Central Bank kept the policy rate at 3.00% for the third month running, following sizable easing earlier in the year.