Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

January 18, 2022

Momentum appeared strong in Q4, with average economic growth through November matching Q3’s double-digit figure, despite the introduction of Covid-19 passes for public venues. Activity was likely supported in part by lower unemployment and high remittance growth. Moreover, government consumption should have been aided by an expansionary fiscal stance. In addition, tourism continued to be the recovery’s lynchpin, with visitor arrivals through November significantly higher than in the same period of 2019. Heading into Q1 this year, a record Covid-19 surge amid the arrival of Omicron is likely restraining momentum somewhat, although the president appears reluctant to introduce fresh restrictions, which should be limiting the economic fallout.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth should weaken this year on a tougher base effect and a normalization of remittance growth. That said, growth should still be one of the highest in the Centam region, amid vaccination progress, lower inflation and unemployment, supportive fiscal policy and growth in tourism. The Omicron variant poses a downside risk given the country’s dependence on tourism. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.2% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 4.7% in 2023.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.010.110.210.310.4
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.96.74.77.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.55.53.95.24.8
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.31.74.21.23.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.81.63.33.61.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.64.23.07.62.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.91.914.00.4
International Reserves (USD)5.36.06.87.68.8
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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