Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

The economy seems to have found its footing following a lackluster performance through most of Q2 and Q3, the latter partly the result of severe disruptions in economic activity caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. A looser monetary stance and measures implemented by the Central Bank have proven successful at shoring up growth in credit lending to the private sector as well as increasing the money supply, annual growth of which stagnated in June but has been accelerating since. Remittances up to September recorded another double-digit growth rate, which likely provided some support to private spending in the third quarter. However, the country is not completely out of the woods: Tourism arrivals for October showed a second consecutive decline compared with the previous year; the Central Bank has attributed this to the hurricane-induced temporary shutdown of tourist facilities in the north-east of the country.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Our panelists expect economic activity to regain some momentum in the second half of the year. GDP growth will be buoyed by the Central Bank’s accommodative monetary measures as well as by the government’s USD 431 million fiscal stimulus package aimed at rekindling growth. External forces will also support the domestic economy: A weaker peso will boost the country’s exports next year, while healthy remittance inflows will buttress household spending. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP of 4.6% next year, unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2019, panelists see the economy expanding 4.5%.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)10.110.310.410.510.6
GDP per capita (USD)5,9966,0556,2966,4996,766
GDP (USD bn)60.862.165.368.271.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.64.87.37.06.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.51.24.35.15.1
Investment (annual variation in %)0.1-0.310.520.811.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.79.814.88.5-  
Unemployment Rate14.715.014.514.013.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.4-2.8-2.6-2.5-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.237.937.235.437.4
Money (annual variation in %)9.110.910.311.610.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.93.91.62.31.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)3.74.83.00.81.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.006.256.255.005.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)40.4042.6944.2845.5346.34
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)39.2441.7143.4844.9845.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-4.1-3.3-1.9-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.0-2.5-2.0-1.3-1.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-8.7-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.6
Exports (USD billion)9.19.49.99.49.9
Imports (USD billion)17.816.817.316.917.5
Exports (annual variation in %)6.83.95.3-4.64.4
Imports (annual variation in %)2.0-5.42.9-2.13.4
International Reserves (USD)3.64.74.95.36.0
External Debt (% of GDP)31.033.635.233.9-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate48.060.80 %Dec 06

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