Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

September 14, 2021

The economy recorded colossal growth in Q2, with activity climbing at a record year-on-year pace, notwithstanding tighter Covid-19 restrictions imposed in May. Although Q2’s reading was driven in part by a low base effect, the economy surpassed its pre-pandemic level in the period. The recovery came amid the fast and targeted response of the authorities, with strong monetary and fiscal support. Turning to Q3, available signs are favorable amid solid macroeconomic fundamentals and a successful vaccination campaign. In July, the economic activity index recorded robust growth amid falling Covid-19 cases and the easing of the nightly curfew. Also in July, remittances continued to rise thanks to a resurgent U.S. economy, likely supporting domestic demand. Meanwhile, tourism numbers in July–August edged up towards their pre-pandemic levels.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

This year, the economy is set to soar, thanks to accelerating U.S. growth, a high vaccination rate and fiscal and monetary support. Moreover, the president’s popularity could aid the implementation of growth-boosting reforms. However, instability in Haiti could contribute to refugee flows, potentially stoking social tensions, posing a downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 8.2% in 2021, which is up 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 5.0% in 2022.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.010.110.210.310.4
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.96.74.77.05.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.55.53.95.24.8
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)2.31.74.21.23.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.81.63.33.61.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-4.64.23.07.62.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.12.91.914.00.4
International Reserves (USD)5.36.06.87.68.8
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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