Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

September 10, 2019

The economy showed signs of life in July, after a less favorable external environment and pre-election uncertainty weighed on momentum in the second quarter. Growth in economic activity accelerated markedly from June’s near two-year low, likely supported by monetary stimulus in the form of lower interest rates and liquidity injections. Moreover, robust annual remittances growth should be buttressing private consumption, despite falling from the highs observed earlier in the year. Less positively, recent bad press over visitor deaths has tarnished the tourism sector. Arrivals were down 11% year-on-year in July and, in September, the government consequently created a committee designed to improve the security of the tourism sector, which is a vital source of foreign currency.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

Growth will ease this year from 2018’s four-year high, in line with slower U.S. growth, global trade tensions and a weaker contribution from tourism in H2. Nevertheless, the expansion should still be notably above the regional average. Volatile energy prices, uncertainty over the tourism sector and a possible stronger-than-expected U.S. slowdown are the main downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 5.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2020, panelists see the economy expanding 4.6%.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)9.89.910.010.110.2
GDP per capita (USD)6,4106,8057,1397,5207,869
GDP (USD bn)62.767.371.275.880.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.97.16.96.74.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.65.16.55.53.9
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.59.318.912.3-0.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.814.88.5-  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.0-3.7-0.3-2.9-3.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.036.035.136.938.9
Money (annual variation in %)10.710.211.610.010.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.91.62.31.74.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.00.81.63.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.256.255.005.505.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)42.6944.2845.5346.3447.80
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)41.7143.4844.9845.9347.31
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.1-3.2-1.8-1.1-0.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-2.2-1.3-0.8-0.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.4-7.5-7.6-7.6
Exports (USD billion)9.49.99.49.810.1
Imports (USD billion)16.817.316.917.417.7
Exports (annual variation in %)5.55.0-4.64.23.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.82.8-2.12.91.9
International Reserves (USD)4.74.95.36.06.8
External Debt (% of GDP)38.239.137.437.037.2

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Dominican Republic Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate51.260.80 %Sep 04

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