Dominican Republic Economic Forecast

Domin. Rep. Economic Outlook

July 14, 2020

The economy likely plummeted in the second quarter as the full force of Covid-19 was felt. GDP was down roughly 30% year-on-year in April, with the hotels, bars and restaurants; construction; and mining sectors particularly hard hit. Moreover, visitor arrivals in April and May virtually stopped altogether due to border closures, hitting the crucial tourism sector. More positively, the government reopened international borders from 1 July, which should help rekindle economic activity heading into Q3. Nevertheless, the recovery in the tourism sector will still be gradual, due to ongoing domestic restrictions and downturns abroad. Meanwhile, in politics, opposition leader Luis Abinader won the 5 July presidential elections and will assume office in mid-August. Broad policy continuity is expected.

Dominican Republic Economic Growth

The economy is seen contracting this year. Social distancing measures will restrain domestic activity, while the downturn in the U.S.—the key source of remittances, tourist arrivals and exports—will hit the external sector. Fiscal and monetary stimulus should limit the downturn, although elevated new Covid-19 cases and instability in neighboring Haiti are risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy shrinking 4.2% in 2020, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before expanding 5.6% in 2021.

Dominican Republic Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)7,1397,5207,8698,3328,574
GDP (USD bn)71.275.880.085.588.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)18.912.3-0.313.38.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)8.5-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate-  -  -  -  -  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-2.8-2.9-2.4-2.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.746.648.950.453.6
Money (annual variation in %)11.610.010.34.510.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.005.505.255.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)45.5346.3447.8050.2752.96
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)44.9845.9347.3149.6351.27
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.8-1.1-0.2-1.4-1.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.1-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.5-7.6-7.6-9.3-9.1
Exports (USD billion)9.49.810.110.911.2
Imports (USD billion)16.917.417.720.220.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-
Imports (annual variation in %)-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)37.537.339.039.6-  

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Dominican Republic Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate52.960.80 %Jan 01

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