Chile: Inflation jumps above the 3.0% mark for the first time in two years in September

Consumer prices rose 0.3% from the previous month in September, up slightly from August’s 0.2% increase. According to the National Statistical Institute (INE), the increase in prices was primarily driven by higher prices for transport services, as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages.

Inflation hit 3.1% in September—the first time the headline reading exceeded the mid-point of the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% tolerance range in two years. Meanwhile, average inflation over the last 12 months edged up to 2.2% in September (August: 2.1%), marking the highest print in nine months.

After removing volatile categories such as fruit, vegetables and fuel, core consumer prices increased 0.1% month-on-month in September, up from August’s flat reading. Meanwhile, core inflation ticked up to 2.3% in September, from 2.0% in August.

Chile Inflation Forecast

The Central Bank predicts year-end inflation of 3.1% in 2018 and 3.0% in 2019. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect inflation to end 2018 at 2.9%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panelists see inflation ending 2019 at 2.9%, also unchanged from last month’s estimate.