Canada Economic Forecast
March 27, 2018
Canada’s economy finished the fourth quarter of 2017 on a lukewarm note, confirming the loss of momentum from the blazing growth in the first half of the year. Holding back growth was a further moderation in household spending as higher interest rates weighed on consumers. That said, business investment shot up on firms’ newfound optimism, which sent imports higher. Furthermore, residential investment rose on a one-off as construction rushed to get underway before tighter mortgage rules came into effect on 1 January. Moreover, available data for the first quarter has been broadly positive, if unremarkable; the private sector remains upbeat, while the housing market has been cooling as regulatory measures bite. On 27 February, the Trudeau government released this year’s budget, which contained no surprises and again set no timeline for returning to black. On trade, there has been cause for optimism. In March, Canada signed the TPP-11 and the U.S. relaxed its stance on rules of origin in ongoing NAFTA renegotiations, which presents a clearer path to a successful renewal of the agreement.Canada Economic Growth
Despite the downshift in the second half of last year, economic fundamentals remain very solid and the economy is expected to expand at a healthy pace this year. The tight labor market should lift wages, but heavily indebted households are expected to continue moderating their spending as interest rates rise. Moreover, higher borrowing costs are expected to cool the property market somewhat. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.8% in 2019.Canada Economy Data
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Canada Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 2.28 | 1.00 % | Apr 18 |
| Bond Yield | 2.28 | 1.00 % | Apr 18 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.27 | 0.15 % | Apr 19 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.27 | 0.15 % | Apr 19 |
| Stock Market | 15,454 | 0.23 % | Apr 19 |
| Stock Market | 15,454 | 0.23 % | Apr 19 |
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Canada Economic News
Canada: Bank of Canada stands pat in April despite higher inflation; rate hike appears likely in May
April 18, 2018
On 18 April, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.25%, as widely expected by market analysts.
Canada: House prices essentially flat in March as Toronto market appears to stabilize
April 12, 2018
House prices were essentially unchanged in March as the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index came in flat from a month earlier, following February’s 0.1% month-on-month decrease.
Canada: GDP contracts in January on unplanned energy-sector shutdowns and a collapse in home sales
March 29, 2018
Canada’s economy contracted unexpectedly at the outset of the year as lower oil output and a weaker services sector weighed on output.
Canada: Inflation jumps in February, will likely weigh on Bank of Canada’s plans
March 23, 2018
Seasonally-adjusted consumer prices rose 0.2% from a month earlier in February, easing from January’s 0.5% increase.
Canada: Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged in March on weak incoming data amid concerns over NAFTA and the housing market
March 17, 2018
On 17 March, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.25%, as widely expected by market analysts.
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