Canada Economic Forecast
October 27, 2020
The economy likely recovered markedly in Q3. Monthly GDP increased solidly in July, while projections pointed to another healthy expansion for August. Moreover, in September, the unemployment rate fell 1.2 percentage points from the month prior, with the labor market recouping roughly 76% of the jobs lost in March and April. Furthermore, retail sales grew modestly in August, while a flash estimate pointed to a flat reading for September, hinting at stronger private consumption in Q3. In addition, residential investment likely rebounded notably in Q3, as suggested by a surge in housing starts during the quarter. That said, daily crude oil production contracted slightly in July from June, pointing to a subdued energy sector. In politics, Prime Minister Trudeau survived a confidence vote on 21 October thus avoiding a snap election, amid a tightening of some Covid-19 restrictions in recent weeks.Canada Economic Growth
Next year, GDP is set to rebound robustly as strong fiscal and monetary stimulus support domestic demand. Household spending should benefit from a lower unemployment rate and recovering consumer confidence. That said, recently renewed domestic lockdown and travel restrictions, as well as future developments in commodity prices, pose significant risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 4.9% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and growth of 3.1% in 2022.Canada Economy Data
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Canada Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.70 | 1.00 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.30 | 0.15 % | Jan 01 |
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Canada Economic News
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Canada: GDP growth slows in February; preliminary estimate points to an acceleration in March
April 30, 2021
The economy grew 0.4% month-on-month in February, easing from January’s 0.7% increase, and falling slightly short of Statistics Canada’s preliminary estimate of 0.5% growth made on 1 April.
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Canada: Inflation increases to highest level since January 2020 in March
April 21, 2021
Consumer prices rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.07% in March over the previous month, after rising 0.14% in February.
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Canada: Bank of Canada keeps rates unchanged in April, but eases its asset purchasing program
April 21, 2021
At its meeting on 21 April, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept its target for the overnight rate at 0.25%, its effective lower bound, in line with market analysts’ expectations.
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Canada: Housing prices growth hits the highest level since September 2017 in March
April 20, 2021
According to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, house price growth accelerated to 1.5% on a month-on-month non-seasonally-adjusted basis in March, from February’s 0.5%.
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Canada: Housing starts increase in March at the strongest pace since current records began in 1977
April 19, 2021
Housing starts surged to 335,200 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis in March according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), up from February’s 275,567-unit reading.
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