Canada Economic Forecast
September 25, 2018Canada’s economy posted a solid performance in the second quarter, buoyed by a resilient external sector which posted strong gains despite the ongoing trade spat with the United States. Meanwhile, momentum looks to have broadly held up in the third quarter. Despite higher borrowing costs, household spending appears to have remained elevated on firm employment gains and moderate wage growth. Furthermore, housing-market metrics continue to suggest that fundamentals have stabilized. However, trade uncertainties persist. Although bilateral NAFTA talks resumed between Canada and the U.S. on 19 September, an immediate deal is unlikely and negotiations may well extend until the U.S.-imposed 1 October deadline as negotiators remain at odds over a number of clauses, including dairy-industry tariffs and the dispute-settlement process.
Canada Economic GrowthAlthough the economy is expected to continue operating near potential next year, analysts see growth edging down as higher borrowing costs eat further into household-spending gains. That said, wage growth should remain elevated as the labor market approaches full employment. Despite short-term uncertainty, a solid external sector supported by oil and gas exports should increasingly buoy activity over the coming years. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 2.2% in 2018 and 2.0% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.
Canada Economy Data
5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||2.49||1.00 %||Oct 11|
|Exchange Rate||1.30||0.15 %||Oct 12|
|Stock Market||15,414||0.23 %||Oct 12|
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Canada Economic News
September 12, 2018
House prices rose 0.2% on a monthly basis in August as the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index ticked higher, down from July’s 0.8% month-on-month increase.
September 8, 2018
Housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis moderated to 201,000 units in August, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
September 7, 2018
In July, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), prepared by the Richard Ivey School of Business, held broadly stable, edging up marginally to 61.9 points (July: 61.8 points).
September 5, 2018
On 5 September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) held its target for the overnight at 1.50%, as widely expected by market analysts.
August 30, 2018
Economic momentum picked up in the second quarter, with seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) growth accelerating 2.9% over the previous quarter.