Canada Economic Forecast
December 20, 2019Growth softened in the third quarter on the back of a contraction in exports. Domestic demand, however, accelerated due to a surge in fixed investment and stronger private consumption growth amid solid wage gains. Turning to the fourth quarter, growth appears broadly steady. On the one hand, the unemployment rate ticked up to an over one-year high in November while housing starts ebbed compared to Q3, hinting at softer residential investment. More positively, the manufacturing PMI hit a nine-month high in November amid faster output growth. Meanwhile, in politics, the USMCA deal recently moved closer to coming into force after being approved by the U.S. House, boding well for investment and the external sector going forward.
Canada Economic GrowthGrowth should be stable in 2020, supported by resilient private consumption and a stabilization in the energy sector. Moreover, a recovery in housing prices bodes well for investment. Volatility in commodity prices and elevated household debt pose downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.6% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.
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|Bond Yield||1.70||1.00 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||1.30||0.15 %||Jan 01|
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Canada Economic News
January 9, 2020
Housing starts decreased to 197,329 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis in December, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), down from November’s revised 204,320-unit reading (previously reported: 201,318), and well below analysts’ expectations of 210,200 units.
January 2, 2020
In December, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) inched down to 50.4 from 51.4 in November.
December 23, 2019
The economy shrank 0.1% month-on-month in October, contrasting September’s 0.1% rise and short of analysts’ expectations of another 0.1% increase.
December 18, 2019
House prices increased 0.16% on a month-on-month non-seasonally-adjusted basis in November, according to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, contrasting October’s 0.05% decrease.
December 18, 2019
Consumer prices increased 0.2% on a seasonally-adjusted basis from a month earlier in November, softer than October’s 0.3% uptick in November.