Canada Economic Forecast
August 27, 2019
The economy likely gained momentum in the second quarter. GDP growth for May exceeded expectations, with the manufacturing sector expanding strongly, supported by normal production in the automobile industry following temporary shutdowns in April, while construction had another strong showing. Moreover, easing production cuts in Alberta’s oil sands should have also supported momentum in the quarter. However, soft retail sales in Q2 suggest consumers remain wary despite the strong labor market. Looking at the third quarter, the economy seems to be losing some steam. In July, the unemployment rate rose, while confidence among small businesses fell as skilled labor shortages and weak domestic demand weighed on sales. That said, in the same month, the manufacturing PMI moved back into positive territory, while strong housing starts bode well for residential investment.Canada Economic Growth
Growth is expected to soften this year, as a weaker global growth outlook hits exports. Moreover, pipeline delays and the recently announced extension of Alberta’s oil cuts will cap the energy sector’s contribution. U.S.-China trade tensions, volatile oil prices and elevated household debt pose downside risks. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.Canada Economy Data
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Canada Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.13 | 1.00 % | Sep 03 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.32 | 0.15 % | Sep 04 |
| Stock Market | 16,449 | 0.23 % | Sep 04 |
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Canada Economic News
Canada: Housing starts recover robustly in August
September 10, 2019
Housing starts increased to 226,639 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis in August, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), up from July’s downwardly revised 222,467-unit reading (previously reported: 222,013) and smashing analysts’ expectations of a 215,000 print.
Canada: Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged in September, expects slower growth in H2
September 4, 2019
On 4 September, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75%, as had been widely anticipated by market analysts. The Bank’s decision to stand pat was backed by stronger-than-expected growth in the second quarter.
Canada: Manufacturing PMI worsens in August
September 3, 2019
In August, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to 49.1 from 50.2 in July.
Canada: GDP growth hits two-year high in Q2 but underlying weaknesses remain
August 30, 2019
Economic activity surged in the second quarter, with seasonally-adjusted annualized (saar) growth accelerating from Q1’s upwardly revised 0.5% (previously reported: +0.4% saar) to 3.7% in Q2 and surpassing market expectations of 3.0%.
Canada: Inflation is unchanged in July at Central Bank’s target midpoint
August 21, 2019
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% from a month earlier in July, contrasting June’s 0.1% fall.
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