Canada Economic Forecast
March 26, 2019Economic growth in Q4 2018 significantly undershot analysts’ expectations. In seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR) domestic demand declined at the sharpest pace since 2015 as the contraction in fixed investment deepened and private consumption growth softened. Nevertheless, over 2018 as a whole, the economy performed relatively well thanks to a tight labor market and a strong external sector. Moving to Q1 2019, prospects look muted as oil production curtailments will likely dampen the energy sector, despite Alberta’s decision to ease its production cap. Moreover, the manufacturing PMI fell in January and February, while retail sales declined in January. On 19 March, the government unveiled the FY2019 budget, which aims to support first-time home buyers and middle-class workers. However, only a modest increase in spending is projected despite the upcoming election.
Canada Economic GrowthEconomic growth will likely moderate further in 2019 amid a backdrop of slower global growth. That said, ratification of the USMCA should reduce uncertainty surrounding trade with the U.S. and, in turn, support mainstay export industries. Elevated household debt and global trade tensions pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts expect growth of 1.7% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% again in 2020.
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|Bond Yield||1.80||1.00 %||Apr 17|
|Exchange Rate||1.33||0.15 %||Apr 22|
|Stock Market||16,577||0.23 %||Apr 22|
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Canada Economic News
April 24, 2019
On 24 April, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its target for the overnight rate unchanged at 1.75%, as widely expected by market analysts.
April 17, 2019
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.3% from a month earlier in March, down from February’s revised 0.4% rise (previously reported: +0.3% month-on-month).
April 12, 2019
House prices fell 0.3% on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis in March, according to the Teranet-National Bank National Composite House Price Index (February: -0.4%).
April 8, 2019
Housing starts on a seasonally-adjusted annualized (SAAR) basis climbed to 192,527 units in March, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).
April 1, 2019
In March, the seasonally-adjusted IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) fell sharply to 50.5 from 52.6 a month earlier, marking the weakest expansion in two-and-a-half years.