Canada Economic Forecast
December 23, 2021
GDP rebounded at a brisk pace in Q3, but a sharp downward revision revealed a notable contraction in Q2. Household spending surged in Q3, but was partially offset by declining fixed investment and government consumption. Meanwhile, exports of goods and services grew robustly while imports dipped, meaning the external sector contributed positively to overall GDP. Shifting to Q4, momentum has likely been fairly stable. A flash estimate suggested that GDP growth accelerated in October, while the unemployment rate dipped to the lowest level since February 2020 in November, and the manufacturing PMI pointed to strong expansions in the first two months of the quarter. Nevertheless, supply chain woes, some weather-related disruptions in the West and the recent rise in new Covid-19 cases leading to the tightening of restrictions in some parts of the country have likely capped growth.Canada Economic Growth
The economy is projected to grow at a more moderate pace in 2022, due to a less favorable base effect. Nevertheless, a lower unemployment rate, elevated household savings and further progress on the vaccination front should support private spending. Uncertainty surrounding new variants of the virus, potential stop-start restrictions and volatile oil prices cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts project growth of 4.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month. In 2023, our analysts see growth easing to 2.9%.Canada Economy Data
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Canada Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.70 | 1.00 % | Dec 31 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.30 | 0.15 % | Jan 01 |
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Canada Economic News
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Canada: Housing starts moderate notably in December, but remain healthy nonetheless
January 17, 2022
Housing starts eased to 236,106 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) basis in December according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), from November’s bumper 303,813-unit reading.
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Canada: Inflation ticks up in December, remains elevated
January 17, 2022
Consumer prices increased a seasonally-adjusted 0.28% over the previous month in December, a weaker increase than November's 0.35% rise.
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Canada: Manufacturing PMI ticks down in December
January 4, 2022
In December, the IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) dipped to 56.5 from November’s 57.2.
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Canada: GDP gains steam in October; preliminary estimate points to weaker growth in November
December 23, 2021
The economy expanded 0.8% on a month-on-month seasonally-adjusted basis in October, after growing 0.2% in September.
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Canada: House price growth picks up in November
December 17, 2021
According to the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index, house prices increased 0.4% month-on-month on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis in November, after virtually flatlining in October.
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