Canada Economic Forecast

Canada Economic Forecast

January 29, 2019

Available data suggests the economy lost some impetus in the fourth quarter. Merchandise exports posted contractions in month-on-month terms in October and November as exports of energy products deteriorated severely. In November, retail sales also decreased notably due to reduced sales at gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers. In addition, house prices ebbed throughout the quarter, suggesting lower consumer demand. Nevertheless, the Ivey PMI was well in expansionary territory in Q4, economic growth in October rebounded and the unemployment rate ended the year at a multi-decade low. On the political front, the USMCA ratification is still contingent on U.S. Democrats’ congressional votes, raising concerns over a delay or potential renegotiations. Furthermore, the political rift with China, sparked by the arrest of a senior executive at Huawei on behalf of the U.S., could dampen economic relations with the Asian giant going forward.

Canada Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to continue moderating this year, with rising interest rates likely eroding growth in household spending and residential investment. That said, ratification of the USMCA would reduce uncertainty surrounding trade with the U.S. and, in turn, support mainstay export industries. Elevated household debt poses a risk to the outlook, particularly as monetary policy tightens. FocusEconomics panelists estimate growth of 1.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2020.

Sample Report

5 years of Canada economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Canada Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield1.931.00 %Feb 13
Exchange Rate1.330.15 %Feb 14
Stock Market15,6960.23 %Feb 14

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Canada Economic News

Search form