Russia Economic Forecast

Russia Economic Outlook

September 6, 2016

The economy contracted a further 0.6% annually in Q2 according to a preliminary estimate, which marks the slowest decrease since the economy began to contract in 2015 and a significant improvement over Q1 when it shrank 1.2%. Although economic growth is absent, recent data suggest that the recovery remains on track. In July, industrial production surprised with a contraction after three consecutive increases, yet a fourth consecutive drop in unemployment offset the miss in industrial output. Furthermore, the contraction in exports in July was the softest in nearly two years and the manufacturing PMI jumped into expansionary territory in August after contracting in July. Ahead of the 18 September parliamentary election, polls suggest that the ruling United Russia party (UR) of President Vladimir Putin has lost popularity, slipping below the threshold needed to secure the majority of seats in the Duma.

Russia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)143143144144144
GDP per capita (USD)13,19214,28915,34015,3908,181
GDP (USD bn)1,8862,0482,2042,2121,176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.33.51.30.7-3.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.87.44.41.5-9.6
Investment (annual variation in %)10.26.00.9-2.6-7.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.13.40.41.6-3.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.96.53.92.7-9.7
Unemployment Rate6.65.55.55.25.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.80.0-0.7-0.6-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.510.511.413.213.6
Money (annual variation in %)22.311.914.62.311.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.16.56.511.412.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.45.16.87.815.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.05.13.75.910.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.255.505.5017.0011.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-21.910.5-5.5-45.2-4.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.0230.4832.7356.2672.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.6730.3630.0335.2468.73
Current Account (% of GDP)5.23.51.52.75.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)98.871.334.159.569.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)197192181190149
Exports (USD billion)515527522498341
Imports (USD billion)319336341308193
Exports (annual variation in %)31.32.3-1.1-4.6-31.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.75.41.6-9.7-37.4
International Reserves (USD)499538510385368
External Debt (% of GDP)28.931.133.127.143.9

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Russia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.15-0.85 %Sep 29
Exchange Rate63.950.41 %Sep 29
Stock Market1,9960.78 %Sep 29

Russia Economic Growth

September 6, 2016

The economy has undergone a painful adjustment and the contraction appears to have softened out in H1. Economic activity is seen as strengthening gradually in H2 and analysts project that GDP will contract 0.7% in 2016, up 0.1 percentage points over last month’s forecast. Nonetheless, risks to the outlook remain due to the slow recovery in oil prices and Brexit-related uncertainty. For 2017, analysts see the economy rebounding and expanding 1.3%.

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