Russia Economic Forecast

Russia Economic Outlook

July 5, 2016

The Russian economy was more resilient to the second oil shock in January: in Q1, GDP decreased 1.2% annually, which was a softer fall than expected. A detailed breakdown of data by economic sectors showed that agriculture continued to expand in Q1 and growth in mining activity picked up over the previous quarter, while the manufacturing sector contracted, although the pace did slow. Even though domestic demand is expected to be sluggish in the coming quarters, green shoots in credit growth and industrial production suggest that the economy remains in recovery mode. The key factors behind the gradual recovery are the rebound in oil prices and the economy’s slow, yet painful adjustment to a weak ruble. On the political front, on 27 June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his regret for the downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015, which had led to a deterioration in relations between Moscow and Ankara and the subsequent imposition of sanctions by Russia. The tone of the official Russian response suggests that the apology has been accepted and an improvement in bilateral ties appears likely.

Russia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)143143144144144
GDP per capita (USD)13,19214,28915,34015,3908,181
GDP (USD bn)1,8862,0482,2042,2121,176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.33.51.30.7-3.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.87.44.41.5-9.6
Investment (annual variation in %)10.26.00.9-2.6-7.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.13.40.41.6-3.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.96.53.92.7-9.7
Unemployment Rate6.65.55.55.25.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.80.0-0.7-0.6-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.510.511.413.213.6
Money (annual variation in %)22.311.914.62.311.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.16.56.511.412.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.45.16.87.815.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.05.13.75.910.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.255.505.5017.0011.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-21.910.5-5.5-45.2-4.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.0230.4832.7356.2672.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.6730.3630.0335.2468.73
Current Account (% of GDP)5.23.51.52.75.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)98.871.334.159.569.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)197192181190149
Exports (USD billion)515527522498341
Imports (USD billion)319336341308193
Exports (annual variation in %)31.32.3-1.1-4.6-31.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.75.41.6-9.7-37.4
International Reserves (USD)499538510385368
External Debt (% of GDP)28.931.133.127.143.9

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Russia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.640.94 %Jul 22
Exchange Rate63.740.50 %Jul 22
Stock Market936-1.17 %Jul 22

Russia Economic Growth

July 5, 2016

The UK’s departure from the UE will send shockwaves across the global economy and is likely to have repercussions for the Russian economy, too, yet the impact is likely to be limited. The principal transmission mechanism is through lower commodities prices and reduced EU growth, as Russia’s direct exposure to the UK economy is modest. Analysts expect GDP to contract 0.9% in 2016, which was revised up by 0.2 percentage points over last month. For 2017, analysts see the economy rebounding and expanding 1.3%.

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