Russia Economic Outlook
June 7, 2016In the first quarter, the Russian economy continued to adjust to the shocks of lower commodities prices, global financial volatility and international sanctions, contracting 1.2% annually. However, the contraction was milder than expected as the government’s economic policy—a free floating exchange rate, an injection of liquidity into the banking sector and limited fiscal stimulus—cushioned the economic shockwaves, buttressed confidence and stabilized the banking system. Signs of some green shoots were corroborated by April data for industrial production and the external sector: industrial output continued to stabilize and exports, while still in the doldrums, contracted at the slowest pace since February of last year. On a negative note, the federal budget deficit increased in April. In order to cover it, the government drew down part of the assets in the Reserve Fund, tapping into its rainy day fund for the first time this year.
Russia Economy Data
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|Bond Yield||8.55||-1.50 %||Jun 27|
|Exchange Rate||65.53||1.88 %||Jun 27|
|Stock Market||889||-2.60 %||Jun 27|
Russia Economic Growth
June 7, 2016The economy has started to show signs of stabilization following last year’s collapse. Yet the recession is expected to continue this year as forecasters project the economy to contract 1.1% due to still low oil prices, weak private consumption and the government’s fiscal consolidation measures. Nonetheless, analysts lifted Russia’s 2016 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month due to brighter prospects for a recovery in oil prices. For 2017, forecasters expect the economy to increase 1.3%.
Russia Economic News
June 16, 2016
Data from the Federal Statistics Service (Rosstat) showed that industrial production expanded 0.7% annually in May, which was up from the 0.5% increase seen in April and below the 1.0% increase market analysts had expected. The increase in May reflected a turnaround in the electricity, gas and water sector, which grew 2.1%, contrasting a 4.0% contraction in April.
June 15, 2016
Following a notable deterioration in the final quarter of 2015—when Russia’s economy registered the steepest contraction since 2009—GDP proved more resilience in the first quarter this year, despite a renewed fall in oil prices at the beginning of the year and heightened volatility in financial markets.
June 10, 2016
At its 10 June Board of Directors’ meeting, the Central Bank of Russia (Bank Rossii) announced its decision to cut the one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 10.50%.
June 6, 2016
Consumer prices increased 0.4% in May over the previous month, which was on par with both the reading registered in April and market expectations.
June 3, 2016
After three months of deterioration, business conditions in the manufacturing sector improved moderately in May.