Russia Economic Forecast

Russia Economic Outlook

August 2, 2016

The economy contracted 1.2% annually in Q1, yet the downturn was softer than expected. More recent data show that parts of the economy are gradually leaving the recession behind. An increase in oil prices from Q1 to Q2 supported a gradual improvement in the Russian industrial sector, and as inflation eased and the ruble stabilized, the decline in real wages moderated. These developments also prompted Russian consumers to be less downbeat in Q2. Russians will go to the polls on 18 September to cast their votes for lawmakers of the State Duma. The election was brought forward from 4 December and the 450 seats in the lower house of parliament are at stake. Debates are scheduled for August and recent polls put the ruling United Russia party (UR) of President Vladimir Putin in the lead. That being said, analysts suggest that the current economic difficulties could cost UR its top position in the Duma. The results of the election will also shed some light on the political mood ahead of the more relevant presidential election scheduled for March 2018.

Russia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)143143144144144
GDP per capita (USD)13,19214,28915,34015,3908,181
GDP (USD bn)1,8862,0482,2042,2121,176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.33.51.30.7-3.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.87.44.41.5-9.6
Investment (annual variation in %)10.26.00.9-2.6-7.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.13.40.41.6-3.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.96.53.92.7-9.7
Unemployment Rate6.65.55.55.25.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.80.0-0.7-0.6-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.510.511.413.213.6
Money (annual variation in %)22.311.914.62.311.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.16.56.511.412.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.45.16.87.815.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.05.13.75.910.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.255.505.5017.0011.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-21.910.5-5.5-45.2-4.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.0230.4832.7356.2672.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.6730.3630.0335.2468.73
Current Account (% of GDP)5.23.51.52.75.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)98.871.334.159.569.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)197192181190149
Exports (USD billion)515527522498341
Imports (USD billion)319336341308193
Exports (annual variation in %)31.32.3-1.1-4.6-31.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.75.41.6-9.7-37.4
International Reserves (USD)499538510385368
External Debt (% of GDP)28.931.133.127.143.9

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Russia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.51-0.23 %Aug 03
Exchange Rate66.881.40 %Aug 03
Stock Market1,9190.34 %Aug 03

Russia Economic Growth

August 2, 2016

The Russian economy has gone through a painful adjustment and its contraction seems to have bottomed out in H1. Economic activity is seen as strengthening gradually in H2 and analysts project that GDP will contract 0.8% in 2016, which was revised up by 0.1 percentage points over last month. Nonetheless, risks to the outlook remain due to the slow recovery in oil prices and the uncertainty associated to Brexit. For 2017, analysts see the economy rebounding and expanding 1.4%.

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