Russia Economic Outlook
July 5, 2016The Russian economy was more resilient to the second oil shock in January: in Q1, GDP decreased 1.2% annually, which was a softer fall than expected. A detailed breakdown of data by economic sectors showed that agriculture continued to expand in Q1 and growth in mining activity picked up over the previous quarter, while the manufacturing sector contracted, although the pace did slow. Even though domestic demand is expected to be sluggish in the coming quarters, green shoots in credit growth and industrial production suggest that the economy remains in recovery mode. The key factors behind the gradual recovery are the rebound in oil prices and the economy’s slow, yet painful adjustment to a weak ruble. On the political front, on 27 June, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his regret for the downing of a Russian warplane in November 2015, which had led to a deterioration in relations between Moscow and Ankara and the subsequent imposition of sanctions by Russia. The tone of the official Russian response suggests that the apology has been accepted and an improvement in bilateral ties appears likely.
Russia Economy Data
5 years of Russia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.
|Bond Yield||8.64||0.94 %||Jul 22|
|Exchange Rate||63.74||0.50 %||Jul 22|
|Stock Market||936||-1.17 %||Jul 22|
Russia Economic Growth
July 5, 2016The UK’s departure from the UE will send shockwaves across the global economy and is likely to have repercussions for the Russian economy, too, yet the impact is likely to be limited. The principal transmission mechanism is through lower commodities prices and reduced EU growth, as Russia’s direct exposure to the UK economy is modest. Analysts expect GDP to contract 0.9% in 2016, which was revised up by 0.2 percentage points over last month. For 2017, analysts see the economy rebounding and expanding 1.3%.
Russia Economic News
July 15, 2016
In June, industrial production increased 1.7% over the same month last year, according to data from the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat).
Russia: Milder-than-expected contraction in GDP in Q1 reflects softer deterioration in domestic demand
July 14, 2016
Following a notable deterioration in the final quarter of 2015—when Russia’s economy registered the steepest contraction since 2009—GDP proved more resilient in the first quarter of this year.
July 11, 2016
Russia’s unemployment, real wages and economic activity are showing signs of a gradual improvement and so does private consumption.
July 5, 2016
Consumer prices increased 0.4% in June over the previous month, which was in line with the reading registered in May and came in above the 0.3% rise the markets had expected.
July 1, 2016
The Russian manufacturing sector is heading into the second half of the year on the right footing.