Russia Economic Forecast

Russia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2016

In the first quarter, the Russian economy continued to adjust to the shocks of lower commodities prices, global financial volatility and international sanctions, contracting 1.2% annually. However, the contraction was milder than expected as the government’s economic policy—a free floating exchange rate, an injection of liquidity into the banking sector and limited fiscal stimulus—cushioned the economic shockwaves, buttressed confidence and stabilized the banking system. Signs of some green shoots were corroborated by April data for industrial production and the external sector: industrial output continued to stabilize and exports, while still in the doldrums, contracted at the slowest pace since February of last year. On a negative note, the federal budget deficit increased in April. In order to cover it, the government drew down part of the assets in the Reserve Fund, tapping into its rainy day fund for the first time this year.

Russia Economy Data

20112012201320142015
Population (million)143143144144144
GDP per capita (USD)13,19214,28915,34015,3908,181
GDP (USD bn)1,8862,0482,2042,2121,176
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.33.51.30.7-3.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.87.44.41.5-9.6
Investment (annual variation in %)10.26.00.9-2.6-7.6
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.13.40.41.6-3.4
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)6.96.53.92.7-9.7
Unemployment Rate6.65.55.55.25.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.80.0-0.7-0.6-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)9.510.511.413.213.6
Money (annual variation in %)22.311.914.62.311.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.16.56.511.412.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.45.16.87.815.5
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)12.05.13.75.910.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.255.505.5017.0011.00
Stock Market (annual variation in %)-21.910.5-5.5-45.2-4.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD)32.0230.4832.7356.2672.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)29.6730.3630.0335.2468.73
Current Account (% of GDP)5.23.51.52.75.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)98.871.334.159.569.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)197192181190149
Exports (USD billion)515527522498341
Imports (USD billion)319336341308193
Exports (annual variation in %)31.32.3-1.1-4.6-31.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.75.41.6-9.7-37.4
International Reserves (USD)499538510385368
External Debt (% of GDP)28.931.133.127.143.9

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Russia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield8.55-1.50 %Jun 27
Exchange Rate65.531.88 %Jun 27
Stock Market889-2.60 %Jun 27

Russia Economic Growth

June 7, 2016

The economy has started to show signs of stabilization following last year’s collapse. Yet the recession is expected to continue this year as forecasters project the economy to contract 1.1% due to still low oil prices, weak private consumption and the government’s fiscal consolidation measures. Nonetheless, analysts lifted Russia’s 2016 GDP growth forecast by 0.2 percentage points over the previous month due to brighter prospects for a recovery in oil prices. For 2017, forecasters expect the economy to increase 1.3%.

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