South Asia Economic Outlook
This year, GDP growth in South Asia should beat its 2013–2022 average. Momentum in Pakistan and Sri Lanka is seen accelerating especially sharply, thanks to IMF bailouts. In India, GDP growth is seen slowing, while remaining among the fastest rates in the world. Downside risks include extreme weather and political instability.
South Asia Inflation
Regional inflation dipped to 7.0% in January from 7.8% in December—one of the lowest levels since early 2022, when commodity prices spiked due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Price pressures fell in all countries bar Bangladesh. Inflation is set to cool this year from last in all four countries on the lagged impact of past rate hikes and lower global agricultural prices.
2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Debt (% of GDP) | 71.2 | 82.1 | 78.2 | 76.5 | - |
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 5.3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 8.6 | - |
CBI Policy Rate (%, eop) | 5.30 | 4.30 | 4.57 | 7.45 | - |
Exchange Rate (LBP per USD, eop) | 86.03 | 84.77 | 88.47 | 101.85 | - |
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -1.2 | 0.4 | -1.2 | -2.4 | - |
Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 389 | 357 | 502 | 535 | - |
Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 601 | 501 | 762 | 879 | - |
International Reserves (USD bn) | 534 | 644 | 679 | 624 | - |
External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.8 | 23.8 | 22.3 | 21.2 | - |
GDP per capita (USD) | 2,019 | 1,904 | 2,201 | 2,344 | - |
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -4.4 | 8.5 | 6.7 | - |
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 5.1 | -4.1 | 10.6 | 7.2 | - |
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 0.3 | -6.1 | 12.8 | 10.1 | - |
Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 0.5 | -6.9 | 11.0 | 5.9 | - |
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.5 | 5.8 | 5.6 | - | - |
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.1 | -8.6 | -6.5 | -6.3 | - |