GDP growth slows in the fourth quarter

Growth slowed in the fourth quarter, with GDP increasing 1.4% on an annual basis (Q3: +1.5% yoy). As a result, the economy expanded at a three-year low of 0.9% overall in 2023 (2022: +3.0%). On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP declined 0.3% in Q4, contrasting the previous quarter's 1.9% increase and marking the sharpest decrease since Q1 2023.

The moderation reflected non-oil output increasing 1.2% year on year in Q4 (Q3: +2.4% yoy), the slowest annual clip in three years. The sector was weighed on by weaker growth in fishing and mining output as well as contracting construction activity. More positively, output in agriculture, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail trade increased more speedily. On the flip side, year-on-year growth in oil output rebounded to a five-quarter high of 2.2% (Q3: -0.8% yoy): The sector returned to growth in the period in large part due to October’s over 10% increase in production.

Our panelists expect the economy to have lost further steam at the outset of 2024, largely on a high base of comparison. That said, over 2024 as a whole, our Consensus is for economic growth to roughly double from 2023. The economy will benefit from a rebounding oil sector, which will underpin a recovery in external sector activity.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 16 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Angolan GDP.

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