Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Annual GDP growth came in at an over two-year high of 2.1% in Q3 (Q2: +1.7% year-on-year) following the industrial sector’s robust recovery. Industrial output bounced back in the quarter, led by manufacturing. That said, a significant jump in phosphate output did not offset the prolonged slump in hydrocarbon extraction, with non-manufacturing industry once again contracting in the quarter. Services continued to perform robustly in Q3, as tourism-oriented sectors benefited from a sizeable increase in overnight stays compared with a year ago. Agricultural output, however, slowed in the quarter. Looking ahead, prospects for Q4 appear bright with year-to-date exports through October recording steady growth.

Tunisia Economic Growth

November 28, 2017

Ongoing recoveries in the manufacturing and extractive sectors are expected to firm up next year on stronger global demand. Moreover, favorable weather conditions are expected to brighten the outlook for the agricultural sector. On the downside, security concerns will weigh on tourism growth. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.8% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2019.

Tunisia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)10.810.911.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)4,1784,2474,3253,871-  
GDP (USD bn)45.046.247.643.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.42.31.11.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.04.03.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.10.2-2.6-0.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.11.1-1.1-2.4-0.6
Unemployment Rate17.415.815.015.215.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.8-4.9-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.849.452.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.34.48.08.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.95.74.84.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.15.84.94.93.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.504.754.254.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.551.651.872.042.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.561.631.701.962.15
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.3-8.4-9.0-9.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.7-3.9-4.3-3.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8
Exports (USD billion)16.816.716.914.113.3
Imports (USD billion)24.123.925.020.319.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.6-0.30.9-16.3-6.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.1-1.14.7-18.7-6.2
International Reserves (USD)8.67.87.67.46.0
External Debt (% of GDP)56.155.555.463.6-  

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Tunisia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.970.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate2.52-0.27 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.05 %Dec 06

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