Tunisia Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

The Tunisian economy appears to have maintained momentum in Q2, after a strong performance in the agriculture and external sectors saw growth hit a four-year high in Q1. In January–May, FDI inflows grew robustly, while the trade balance improved on stable imports and rising exports. Survey data from May further indicates industrial output likely improved. However, rampant inflation and dwindling foreign reserves are forcing the country to step up its pace of reforms—such as lowering fuel subsidies—to meet its IMF target and unlock a USD 257 million loan in July.

Tunisia Economic Growth

The tourism and external sectors should fuel higher growth this year. However, increasingly restrictive economic policy will likely provide headwinds and fuel social unrest, which could be a major downside risk. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2019.

Tunisia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.9	11.0	11.1	11.4	11.5
GDP per capita (USD)	4,244	4,323	3,883	3,661	3,483
GDP (USD bn)	46.2	47.5	43.1	41.7	40.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.4	2.3	0.8	1.0	1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.0	4.1	3.2	3.1	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.2	-2.9	-0.5	1.0	-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.1	-1.1	-2.6	-0.5	-1.0
Unemployment Rate	15.8	15.0	15.2	15.5	15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-6.9	-5.0	-4.8	-6.1	-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.6	50.8	55.4	61.9	69.9
Money (annual variation in %)	4.4	8.0	8.4	8.0	16.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.8	4.1	4.2	6.4	6.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	4.9	4.9	3.7	5.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.50	4.75	4.25	4.25	5.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.65	1.87	2.04	2.30	2.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.63	1.70	1.96	2.15	2.41
Current Account (% of GDP)	-8.4	-9.1	-8.9	-8.8	-10.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-3.9	-4.3	-3.8	-3.7	-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-7.1	-8.1	-6.2	-5.8	-6.4
Exports (USD billion)	16.7	16.9	14.1	13.3	14.2
Imports (USD billion)	23.9	25.0	20.3	19.1	20.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	-0.3	0.9	-16.3	-6.0	6.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.1	4.7	-18.7	-6.2	8.0
International Reserves (USD)	7.7	7.6	7.4	6.0	5.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	55.5	55.5	62.9	67.3	-

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Tunisia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	6.97	0.0 %	Mar 15
Exchange Rate	2.65	-0.27 %	Jul 17
Stock Market	0.1	0.05 %	Jul 16

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