Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

The economy appears to have suffered in Q3, after GDP plunged in Q2 as the country felt the full brunt of coronavirus-induced containment measures. Merchandise trade data for July–August highlighted a continued fall in exports as weak external demand hit outflows of key mining products, with imports tumbling on shrinking domestic demand. Furthermore, the all-important tourism sector has been devasted by the closing of borders and lockdown measures both at home and abroad, with revenues from tourist activities expected to have plunged across the quarter. Moreover, a sharp rise in new Covid-19 cases throughout September is a cause of concern heading into Q4, with a reimposition of restrictive measures likely to heap further pain on an already strained economy.

Tunisia Economic Growth

This year, economic output is forecast to contract markedly as the domestic economy falters on lower household and capital spending. A sharp reduction in tourism revenues and subdued foreign demand will weigh heavily on the external sector, although an uptick in government spending should soften the downturn slightly and lay the foundations for a rebound in 2021. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP contracting 6.7% in 2020 before expanding 4.4% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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