Tunisia Economic Outlook

November 26, 2019

Economic growth slowed to an over three-year low in the third quarter, according to recently released data, with annual growth clocking 1.0%. The reading was weighed on by a continued contraction in industrial output, including in the important textiles sector, while the agricultural and service sectors remained key sources of growth. On the political front, the country’s new president tasked self-described independent Habib Jemli with forming a government in mid-November. However, the fractured Parliament could make coalition building difficult, fanning political uncertainty in the near-term. If a government is formed, economic policy action will be high on its list of priorities, with a weak labor market–unemployment is entrenched at slightly above 15%–and high debt levels key causes of concern.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Economic growth is set to pick up in 2020 due to a rebound in industrial production, stronger private consumption and improving investment levels. However, a weak fiscal position and various vulnerabilities—in the form of soft momentum in the EU, security threats and volatile oil prices—pose downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2021.

Tunisia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	11.0	11.1	11.3	11.4	11.5
GDP per capita (USD)	4,197	4,271	3,827	3,669	3,467
GDP (USD bn)	46.2	47.6	43.1	41.8	40.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.3	2.4	1.2	1.1	1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.0	4.1	3.2	3.1	2.4
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.2	-2.9	-0.5	1.1	0.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.1	-1.1	-2.6	-0.6	-0.9
Unemployment Rate	15.8	15.0	15.2	15.5	15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-6.9	-5.0	-4.8	-6.1	-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.6	50.8	55.4	61.9	69.9
Money (annual variation in %)	4.4	8.0	8.4	8.0	16.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.7	4.8	3.9	4.2	6.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	4.9	4.8	3.6	5.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.50	4.75	4.25	4.25	5.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.65	1.87	2.04	2.30	2.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.63	1.70	1.96	2.15	2.41
Current Account (% of GDP)	-8.4	-9.1	-8.9	-8.8	-10.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-3.9	-4.3	-3.8	-3.7	-4.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-5.8	-6.7	-5.1	-4.7	-5.3
Exports (USD billion)	17.0	16.7	14.1	13.6	14.3
Imports (USD billion)	23.0	23.4	19.1	18.4	19.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	-0.3	0.9	-16.3	-6.0	6.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.1	4.7	-18.7	-6.2	8.0
International Reserves (USD)	7.7	7.6	7.4	6.0	5.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	55.5	55.5	63.0	66.7	80.4

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Tunisia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	7.45	0.0 %	Sep 15
Exchange Rate	2.85	-0.27 %	Nov 21
Stock Market	0.2	0.05 %	Nov 21

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