Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Widespread protests have driven phosphate production—a key source of revenue—to a halt in recent weeks, threatening to upend the external sector’s recent gains and derail the fragile economy. Since the 2018 budget was approved on 9 December, demonstrations have escalated as unemployed young people increasingly demand government support. Although protests have been common in recent years, current demonstrations have taken a decidedly urgent turn since the IMF-backed budget’s introduction of austerity measures and higher taxes. Last year’s protests stalled year-to-date industrial output, which most recently declined in November after previously driving economic growth in the third quarter.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Recent events notwithstanding, further recoveries are expected this year in the manufacturing and extractive sectors, which should bolster economic growth. That said, recent tax measures are expected to eat away at household spending, and recent economic jitters will bode poorly for investment and inbound tourism. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.

Tunisia Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)10.810.911.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)4,1784,2474,3253,871-  
GDP (USD bn)45.046.247.643.0-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.92.42.31.11.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.43.04.03.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)6.10.2-2.6-0.5-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.11.1-1.1-2.4-0.6
Unemployment Rate17.415.815.015.215.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-6.8-4.9-4.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.545.849.452.9-  
Money (annual variation in %)5.34.48.08.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.95.74.84.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.15.84.94.93.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.504.754.254.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.551.651.872.042.30
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.561.631.701.962.15
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.3-8.4-9.0-9.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.7-3.9-4.3-3.9-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.4-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8
Exports (USD billion)16.816.716.914.113.3
Imports (USD billion)24.123.925.020.319.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.6-0.30.9-16.3-6.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-2.1-1.14.7-18.7-6.2
International Reserves (USD)8.67.87.67.46.0
External Debt (% of GDP)56.155.555.463.6-  

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Tunisia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.970.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate2.37-0.27 %Feb 16
Stock Market0.10.05 %Feb 16

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