Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economic panorama remains subdued in the second half of the year, following the sharp pandemic-induced contraction in activity in Q2. Merchandise trade data for Q3 indicated a slump in exports as slack demand from key international markets hit the mining and energy sectors, while imports nosedived on evaporating domestic demand. Moreover, the inhibited state of global tourism has hit the hospitality sector hard, with revenues from tourist activities expected to have plunged across the third quarter. In other news, the Central Bank quashed plans to purchase treasury bonds to help finance public debt on 27 October, citing the risk of higher inflation and further depreciation of the dinar. Consequently, on 2 November, parliament rejected the government’s supplementary budget bill that had proposed a widening of the fiscal deficit to an equivalent to 14% of GDP.

Tunisia Economic Growth

The economy is projected to rebound strongly in 2021 after a marked contraction in 2020. Growth in household and capital spending should boost domestic demand, while the expected return of higher levels of tourism is likely to bolster the external sector. Uncertainty regarding the duration of the pandemic clouds the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 4.0% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 4.1% in 2022.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.12.02.71.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.42.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.51.10.32.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)8.48.016.93.66.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.26.27.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.65.37.36.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.254.255.006.757.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.55.28.6-3.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-3.86.89.5-5.0
International Reserves (USD)7.46.05.75.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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