Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

Growth likely picked up somewhat in Q4 amid a much lower Covid-19 incidence, but remained muted nonetheless. Spending will have been hit by high inflation and unemployment, and the external sector likely suffered from global supply bottlenecks and the lingering effects of the pandemic, with real exports falling slightly year-on-year in October and tourist receipts still far below pre-pandemic levels. Political uncertainty following July’s coup will have also weighed on activity. Nonetheless, stability could improve going forward following the president’s announcement of a constitutional referendum and legislative elections, slated for July and December 2022, respectively. On the fiscal front, Algeria recently pledged a USD 300 million loan, although clinching an IMF deal will be the key to overcoming the current fiscal crisis.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Growth should pick up somewhat this year, as looser restrictions at home aid domestic demand and tourism recovers. However, risks are mainly tilted to the downside, and include a looming fiscal crisis, further political upheaval and the Omicron variant. Securing an IMF deal will be key to underpinning investor confidence and supporting the recovery. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 3.8% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 3.6% in 2023.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.12.02.71.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.42.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.51.10.32.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)8.48.016.93.66.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.26.27.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.65.37.36.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.254.255.006.757.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.55.28.6-3.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-3.86.89.5-5.0
International Reserves (USD)7.46.05.75.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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