Tunisia Economic Outlook
An economy struggling with structural weaknesses:
Tunisia has faced prolonged economic difficulties in the wake of the 2011 revolution. While it has one of the more diversified economies in North Africa, with sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and tourism playing key roles, growth has remained weak due to political instability, low investment, and fiscal challenges. The public sector remains bloated, contributing to a growing budget deficit and high debt levels.
Tourism and remittances as economic lifelines:Tourism has historically been a major driver of economic activity, with Tunisia’s Mediterranean coastline and historical sites attracting millions of visitors. However, the sector has been highly vulnerable to terrorist attacks, political instability, and global crises such as COVID-19. Additionally, remittances from Tunisians working abroad provide crucial foreign exchange earnings but are not enough to offset weak domestic demand.
High unemployment and inflationary pressures:Tunisia faces persistent unemployment, particularly among youth and university graduates, with many skilled workers seeking opportunities abroad. Inflation has also been a growing problem, eroding purchasing power and leading to public dissatisfaction. Government subsidies on food and fuel strain public finances, yet their removal often sparks protests, making economic reforms politically sensitive.
Tunisia’s economic outlook:Tunisia’s economic prospects remain fragile, with slow growth and mounting fiscal pressures forecast. Negotiations with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance have stalled, complicating efforts to stabilize public finances. Without deep structural reforms, including labor market adjustments and improvements in the business climate, Tunisia’s economy risks prolonged stagnation.
Tunisia's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 48.2 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 48.2 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 48.2 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 3,954 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 3,954 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 3,954 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1.1% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 62.1% of overall GDP, manufacturing 15.1%, other industrial activity 13.3%, and agriculture 9.5%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 78.0% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 20.6%, fixed investment 13.5%, and net exports -12.1%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 78.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 8.0%, food 11.8%, ores and metals 1.8% and agricultural raw materials 0.3%, with other categories accounting for 0.0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 61.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 19.1%, food 12.8%, ores and metals 4.7% and agricultural raw materials 1.5%, with other goods accounting for 0.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 20 billion in 2024, while total imports were USD 26 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.1% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Tunisia, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Tunisia's fiscal deficit averaged 6.2% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 15.8% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Tunisia's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 6.2% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Tunisia inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Tunisia's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 8.00%, up from 4.75% a decade earlier. See our Tunisia monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the dinar weakened by 40.6% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the dinar, click here.
Economic situation in Tunisia
After 1.4% growth in 2024, the economy has picked up so far in 2025, with GDP rising 1.6% year on year in the first quarter of the year. Agriculture and food processing were star performers, as better rains allowed the sectors to continue recovering from past drought. Moreover, mining output increased by double digits, and the hospitality industry performed well, aided by strong tourism arrivals. However, the GDP expansion was subdued by regional standards, with the economy held back by relatively high interest rates, limited access to external financing, FX shortages, a recent corporate tax hike and regulatory constraints. Our panelists expect economic growth to accelerate further in Q2, with agriculture and tourism continuing to be important drivers.Tunisia Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.47 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 18 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Tunisia in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 47 economic indicators for Tunisia from a panel of 18 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Tunisia economy. To download a sample report on the Tunisia's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.