Tunisia Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019The economy appears to have remained on a weak footing in the first quarter of 2019, after growth decelerated in Q4 2018 due to a downturn in the industrial sector. Indeed, January and February data shows industrial production continued to decline, boding ill for economic momentum. Moreover, exports and imports both contracted throughout the quarter, while foreign exchange reserves—already critically low in previous months—continued to deplete. However, on 17 April, the IMF reached a staff-level agreement on the fifth review of Tunisia’s loan program, which could provide a desperately-needed cash injection to the country. Meanwhile, ongoing protests forced the government to raise pensions and the minimum wage on 1 May, which will likely exacerbate the fiscal deficit.
Tunisia Economic GrowthTunisia’s prospects are riddled with challenges this year. The country’s main vulnerabilities remain its large fiscal and current account deficits, coupled with dangerously low foreign reserves. Political instability and public unrest, fueled by high unemployment and inflation, further darken the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2020.
Tunisia Economy Data
5 years of Tunisia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||7.16||0.0 %||Dec 15|
|Exchange Rate||2.98||-0.27 %||May 13|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.05 %||May 13|
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