Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Although annual growth rose in Q1 thanks to a favorable base effect, quarter-on-quarter growth weakened slightly, largely due to reduced agricultural and service sector activity. The agricultural sector was negatively affected by general economic uncertainty, which led to a reduction in investment by farmers, while the service sector was hit by weak private consumption in the face of rising inflation. However, growth was supported by the industrial and public sectors. In Q2, the country remains on the precipice of a balance-of-payments and political crisis. International reserves have dwindled to fewer than four months import cover amid rising energy prices. An IMF deal is urgently required, but it is being blocked by the main trade union, which has called for a strike for 16 June to protest IMF demands for public spending cuts.

Tunisia Economic Growth

GDP growth will be among the weakest in the region this year. Rising energy and food prices will dent private spending, as well as the fiscal and external balances, offsetting the positive effect of diminishing Covid-19 restrictions and a recovery in tourism. The outlook hinges on an IMF deal, with the political situation and volatile commodity prices posing downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 2.6% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and expanding 2.9% in 2023.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.12.02.71.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.42.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.51.10.32.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)8.48.016.93.66.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.26.27.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.65.37.36.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.254.255.006.757.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.55.28.6-3.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-3.86.89.5-5.0
International Reserves (USD)7.46.05.75.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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