Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

The economy will have deteriorated even further in the second quarter, after GDP contracted in the first quarter as containment measures impaired domestic production and stemmed the flow of tourist arrivals. The external sector suffered heavily in April–May as exports plummeted and tourism fell sharply as borders remained shut. As such, the unemployment rate is set to spike, with large numbers of private-sector workers taking unpaid leave during May. Moving into the third quarter, a reopening of borders in late June, the continued easing of lockdown restrictions and the approval on 15 June of USD 175 million in budgetary support from the World Bank bode well for both domestic demand and a return of much-needed tourist revenues. Meanwhile, political tensions are resurfacing with recently-installed Prime Minister Fakhfakh facing calls for his resignation over corruption allegations, signaling a potential return of the instability seen at the beginning of the year.

Tunisia Economic Growth

This year, the economy is set to shrink significantly as domestic demand falls due to lower household spending and postponed fixed investment. The external sector is likely to be hit hard, while uncertainty regarding the pace and scale of the anticipated return of tourism clouds the outlook markedly. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP contracting 4.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before expanding 3.4% in 2021.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.12.02.71.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.42.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.51.10.32.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)8.48.016.93.66.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.26.27.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.65.37.36.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.254.255.006.757.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.55.28.6-3.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-3.86.89.5-5.0
International Reserves (USD)7.46.05.75.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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