Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

After high growth in Q2—which was driven by a base effect—the economic landscape appeared bleaker in Q3. The country was hit early in the quarter by a surge in Covid-19 cases, which forced the reintroduction of quarantine measures for tourists—a blow to the already-struggling tourism industry. Moreover, July’s coup caused significant uncertainty, leading Fitch Ratings to downgrade the country’s credit rating, whilst exports and imports tumbled in the same month compared to June. Nonetheless, prospects appeared more favorable later on in Q3. Exports grew in August, while Covid-19 cases fell in August–September. In politics, the naming of Najla Romdhane—a geologist with little government experience—as prime minister on 29 September should offer some stability, although the constitution remains suspended and it remains to be seen whether she will be able to ward off a looming fiscal crisis.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Following on the heels of 2020’s decline, growth in 2021 and 2022 should regain ground. Strengthening domestic demand and exports should give the recovery a leg up, although lingering uncertainty regarding the pandemic, as well as the current political and fiscal situation, weighs heavily on the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP growing 3.4% in 2021 and expanding 3.7% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Tunisia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.311.411.511.711.8
GDP per capita (USD)3,8293,6693,4663,4213,297
GDP (USD bn)43.241.840.039.938.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.12.02.71.0
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.23.12.42.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-0.51.10.32.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6-3.2
Unemployment Rate15.215.515.415.515.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.8-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)55.462.470.277.972.2
Money (annual variation in %)8.48.016.93.66.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.84.26.27.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.83.65.37.36.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.254.255.006.757.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)2.042.302.462.992.79
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.962.152.412.642.93
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.2-9.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0-5.4
Exports (USD billion)14.113.614.315.515.0
Imports (USD billion)19.118.419.621.520.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-15.8-3.55.28.6-3.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-18.3-3.86.89.5-5.0
International Reserves (USD)7.46.05.75.27.4
External Debt (% of GDP)63.167.883.786.9-  

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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