Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The economic panorama was bleak in the first quarter of the year, as the coronavirus pandemic significantly impaired economic activity. Domestically, containment measures will have restrained private consumption and investment flows, while slumping foreign demand will have extinguished exports in the quarter, with tourism and related services particularly hard hit. As a consequence, the IMF approved a USD 745 million disbursement on 10 April to address urgent funding requirements. More recently, a three-stage plan to ease lockdown conditions began on 4 May, although business activity looks set to remain suppressed through Q2 nonetheless. Meanwhile, Moody’s placed its B2 rating on review for downgrade on 17 April, due to increasing concerns over the government’s ability to finance its burgeoning debt burden.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Economic activity is expected to contract this year, as restrained household spending and reduced investment more than outweigh higher government spending. The full impact of the pandemic on the external sector—through decreased tourism levels and lower exports—remains the key risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee GDP contracting 2.5% in 2020, which is down 3.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before expanding 2.9% in 2021.

Tunisia Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)11.111.311.411.511.7
GDP per capita (USD)4,2713,8293,6693,4663,428
GDP (USD bn)47.643.241.840.040.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.41.21.11.92.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.13.23.12.42.1
Investment (annual variation in %)-2.9-0.51.10.32.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.1-2.4-0.5-1.1-0.6
Unemployment Rate15.015.215.515.415.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1-4.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)50.855.462.470.276.7
Money (annual variation in %)8.08.48.016.93.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.83.84.26.27.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.94.83.65.37.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.754.254.255.006.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.872.042.302.462.99
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.701.962.152.412.64
Current Account (% of GDP)-9.1-9.0-8.6-10.3-11.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-4.3-3.9-3.6-4.1-4.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-6.7-5.0-4.8-5.3-6.0
Exports (USD billion)16.714.113.614.315.5
Imports (USD billion)23.419.118.419.621.5
Exports (annual variation in %)0.9-15.8-3.55.28.6
Imports (annual variation in %)4.7-18.3-3.86.89.5
International Reserves (USD)7.67.46.05.75.2
External Debt (% of GDP)55.563.167.883.786.7

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Tunisia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield7.450.0 %Sep 15
Exchange Rate2.78-0.27 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.20.05 %Jan 07

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