Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Economic growth slightly softened in the third quarter, largely due to a sharp downturn in the oil and chemicals sectors. Meanwhile, the country’s political crisis worsened in recent weeks, boding poorly for growth in Q4 and beyond. Amid growing tensions with President Essebsi, on 5 November Prime Minister Youssef Chahed reshuffled his cabinet. Two weeks later, on 22 November, 650,000 public workers went on strike to protest the government’s refusal to raise wages. The decision followed pressure by the IMF and threats to cut Tunisia’s funding, which could have dealt a crippling blow given the country’s rapidly depleting foreign reserves.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Growth should be steady next year, supported by the revival of the tourism industry—although a recent suicide bombing could dent the long-awaited recovery. However, the country’s elevated fiscal and trade deficits, high youth unemployment, public unrest and growing political instability all present downside risks to its economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.6% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)10.911.011.111.411.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,2444,3233,8833,6613,483
GDP (USD bn)46.247.543.141.740.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.42.30.81.01.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.04.13.23.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-0.51.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.1-1.1-2.6-0.5-1.0
Unemployment Rate15.815.015.215.515.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.650.855.461.969.9
Money (annual variation in %)4.48.08.48.016.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.84.14.26.46.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.84.94.93.75.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.754.254.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.651.872.042.302.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.631.701.962.152.41
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-9.1-8.9-8.8-10.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-4.3-3.8-3.7-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8-6.4
Exports (USD billion)16.716.914.113.314.2
Imports (USD billion)23.925.020.319.120.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.30.9-16.3-6.06.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.14.7-18.7-6.28.0
International Reserves (USD)7.77.67.46.05.7
External Debt (% of GDP)55.555.562.967.3-  

Sample Report

5 years of Tunisia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.

Download

Tunisia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield6.970.0 %Mar 15
Exchange Rate2.96-0.27 %Dec 10
Stock Market0.10.05 %Dec 04

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form