Tunisia Economic Forecast

Tunisia Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy slowed in the last quarter of 2018 on a broad-based contraction in the industrial sector, owing to a sharp decline in oil production, as well as lower phosphate and manufacturing output. Service sector activity also softened slightly; agricultural sector growth, however, remained upbeat. On 7 February, after weeks of large-scale strikes, the government agreed to raise wages for 670,000 public workers. This directly contradicted the IMF’s recommendations, prompting the institution to indefinitely delay its planned visit to unlock a vital USD 225 million loan tranche.

Tunisia Economic Growth

Tunisia’s prospects are riddled with challenges this year. The country’s main vulnerabilities—namely, large fiscal and current account deficits coupled with dangerously low foreign reserves—are notably compounded by political instability and unrest, fueled by high unemployment and inflation. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

Population (million)10.911.011.111.411.5
GDP per capita (USD)4,2444,3233,8833,6613,483
GDP (USD bn)46.247.543.141.740.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)  
Investment (annual variation in %)0.2-2.9-0.51.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.1-1.1-2.6-0.5-1.0
Unemployment Rate15.815.015.215.515.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.9-5.0-4.8-6.1-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)46.650.855.461.969.9
Money (annual variation in %)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.754.254.255.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.651.872.042.302.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.631.701.962.152.41
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.4-9.1-8.9-8.8-10.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.9-4.3-3.8-3.7-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-7.1-8.1-6.2-5.8-6.4
Exports (USD billion)16.716.914.113.314.2
Imports (USD billion)23.925.020.319.120.6
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.30.9-16.3-6.06.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.14.7-18.7-6.28.0
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)55.555.562.967.3-  

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Tunisia Facts

Bond Yield7.160.0 %Dec 15
Exchange Rate2.99-0.27 %Mar 20
Stock Market0.10.05 %Mar 19

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