Tunisia Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

GDP growth slowed to a three-year low in the first quarter of the year on declining agricultural and industrial output, as well as a feeble external sector—which remained tepid in Q2, according to trade data up to May. However, in better news, the unemployment rate decreased to a one-and-a-half-year low in Q1. Moreover, on 12 June, the IMF signed off on a much-needed USD 245 million loan to the Tunisian government, which forms part of a four-year USD 2.9 billion support program agreed to in 2016. The Fund urged the government to continue improving the fiscal and external deficits to “overcome the otherwise unsustainable debt dynamics”. Meanwhile, two suicide bombings in Tunis on 27 June could threaten the tourism sector’s revival.

Tunisia Economic Growth

The economy is set to slow this year as the government continues with efforts to reduce the country’s large fiscal and current account deficits, and tame rampant inflation. Low foreign reserves, high unemployment and a slowdown in Europe remain the primary downside risks to the outlook, while tourism could also suffer from political instability and security threats. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

Tunisia Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	11.0	11.1	11.3	11.4	11.5
GDP per capita (USD)	4,197	4,271	3,827	3,669	3,467
GDP (USD bn)	46.2	47.6	43.1	41.8	40.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.3	2.4	1.2	1.1	1.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.0	4.1	3.2	3.1	2.4
Investment (annual variation in %)	0.2	-2.9	-0.5	1.1	0.3
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	1.1	-1.1	-2.6	-0.6	-0.9
Unemployment Rate	15.8	15.0	15.2	15.5	15.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-6.9	-5.0	-4.8	-6.1	-6.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	46.6	50.8	55.4	61.9	69.9
Money (annual variation in %)	4.4	8.0	8.4	8.0	16.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.7	4.8	3.9	4.2	6.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.8	4.9	4.8	3.6	5.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.50	4.75	4.25	4.25	5.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	1.65	1.87	2.04	2.30	2.46
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	1.63	1.70	1.96	2.15	2.41
Current Account (% of GDP)	-8.4	-9.1	-8.9	-8.8	-10.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-3.9	-4.3	-3.8	-3.7	-4.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-5.8	-6.7	-5.1	-4.7	-5.3
Exports (USD billion)	17.0	16.7	14.1	13.6	14.3
Imports (USD billion)	23.0	23.4	19.1	18.4	19.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	-0.3	0.9	-16.3	-6.0	6.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	-1.1	4.7	-18.7	-6.2	8.0
International Reserves (USD)	7.7	7.6	7.4	6.0	5.7
External Debt (% of GDP)	55.5	55.5	63.0	66.7	80.4

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Tunisia Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Bond Yield	7.37	0.0 %	Mar 15
Exchange Rate	2.89	-0.27 %	Jul 11
Stock Market	0.2	0.05 %	Jul 11

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