Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

June 19, 2018

Myanmar’s manufacturing sector remained in good shape through May. Despite a leveling off from the record high in the prior month, May’s PMI was buttressed by strong output and new order growth. To boost inward investment, the new companies law will come into effect on 1 August, allowing foreign companies to acquire an up to 35% stake in local firms. FDI inflows represented over a quarter of fixed investment in 2017, growing 45% over the year before. This comes after a move to open the retail and wholesale trade sector to foreign companies in early May.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Robust private and public consumption growth should drive the economy this year. However, a slowdown in structural reform progress, commodity price swings and a shaky banking sector pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect GDP growth of 7.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2101,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.110.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.410.010.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.210.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %May 15
Exchange Rate1,4240.0 %Jul 13

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