Myanmar Economic Outlook
January 23, 2018The manufacturing sector likely continued performing well at the end of last year; PMI remained in expansionary territory in December, supported by solid output expectations. The economy performed well despite the humanitarian crisis. Investors and local businesses have, however, lost confidence in the government’s ability to deliver needed reforms: Myanmar remains one of the least attractive countries in the region for investment. The National League for Democracy-led government focused on stabilizing government finances and inflation but failed to make real progress outside of those areas. However, the new Myanmar Companies Act will come into effect on 1 August: It is a major transformative step for the economy and should lead to greater inflows of foreign capital.
Myanmar Economic GrowthThe balance of risks is tilted to the downside, with a fragile banking sector and the fallout from the humanitarian crisis looming over the economy. However, private consumption and fixed investment are expected to contribute to growth this year: Household spending should benefit from increased minimum wages. Our panel sees GDP expanding 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,182||1,180||1,275||1,148||1,269|
|GDP (USD bn)||59.7||60.1||65.6||59.5||66.3|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.3||8.4||8.0||7.3||6.3|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||0.9||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-4.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||40.7||33.2||29.9||34.9||35.8|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.8||5.7||5.1||10.0||7.0|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||851.7||983.8||1,031||1,301||1,350|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||640.7||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.0||-4.9||-3.3||-5.2||-6.5|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.4||-2.9||-2.1||-3.1||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||2.4||2.3||7.3||-5.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.8||11.4||18.0||11.4||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.4||9.1||10.8||16.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||1.5||16.0||58.0||1.2||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||27.2||22.9||17.7||3.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||7.0||4.5||4.8||3.8||4.6|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||13.1||12.1||9.6||10.8||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Feb 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,329||0.0 %||Feb 16|
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