Myanmar Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018The manufacturing sector performed well in H1 but has taken a turn for the worse since: The manufacturing PMI dropped to below the 50-point mark in July and remained there through October. In November, however, the PMI returned to expansionary territory on increased output and new business. In November, the government set up a ministerial team tasked with reforming the wider economy; since taking power over two years ago, the government has faced criticism of slow reform progress. In the same month, the Central Bank announced foreign banks can set their own interest rates on local currency deposits, although rates cannot exceed 13.00%. Foreign banks will also be allowed to expand operations in 2019.
Myanmar Economic GrowthEconomic growth should pick up next year on robust regional activity. Downside risks include sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather and potential loss of preferential market access to the EU. The panel sees growth at 6.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in 2020.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,180||1,275||1,147||1,210||1,264|
|GDP (USD bn)||60.1||65.6||59.5||63.3||66.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.4||8.0||7.0||5.9||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-2.5||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||33.2||29.9||34.5||35.7||34.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.7||5.1||10.0||6.8||5.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||983.8||1,032||1,304||1,358||1,362|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235||1,360|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.9||-2.2||-5.1||-3.9||-5.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-1.4||-3.0||-2.5||-3.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||-1.9||-3.8||-3.7||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||10.0||10.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.5||11.9||13.7||12.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.4||6.6||-0.6||-8.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.8||25.0||15.5||-6.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.6||2.0||3.8||4.6||4.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||12.1||9.6||11.2||10.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,589||0.0 %||Dec 12|
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