Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

Economic prospects remained poor in Q3. Amid a low vaccination rate, a wave of Covid-19 infections hit the country in July, with new restrictions weighing on activity. The manufacturing PMI became more deeply entrenched in negative territory in the quarter, with material shortages compounding businesses’ economic difficulties. Moreover, the currency slid sharply in the period, likely intensifying cost pressures and hurting consumer and capital spending. Heading into Q4, although the currency has recovered some of its losses recently, the authorities’ measures to stop capital outflows will do little to address weak investor confidence or stem the withdrawal of large international corporations from the country. Armed conflict continues to intensify, and with the international community unlikely to intervene and the opposition remaining divided, a continuation of the status quo appears likely.

Myanmar Economic Growth

This upcoming fiscal year (October 2021–September 2022), the economy is forecast to recover slightly, although growth will remain weighed down by continued armed conflict. Risks are tilted to the downside, with further international sanctions, the public health situation, a potential banking crisis and the value of the kyat all key factors to watch. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to grow 2.8% in FY 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.2% in FY 2023.

Myanmar Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)51.852.352.652.853.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,1571,1661,2171,305
GDP (USD bn)63.260.561.464.369.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.05.95.86.46.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-3.9-2.7-3.0-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.837.838.336.338.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.47.04.66.98.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3041,3581,3621,5501,466
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1651,2361,3641,4431,522
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-4.2-6.5-4.2-2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-2.5-4.0-4.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3-  
Exports (USD billion)10.09.29.811.1-  
Imports (USD billion)13.812.815.615.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.7-7.36.212.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.7-7.021.6-1.1-  
International Reserves (USD)4.44.64.95.35.5
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.424.523.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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