Myanmar Economic Outlook
February 25, 2020
The first half of FY 2020, which started in October, seems to have got off to a strong start. In the October–January period, the manufacturing PMI edged higher compared to the average for the prior fiscal year. In January in particular, growth in output, new orders and purchasing activity accelerated. However, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus and its disruptive effect on supply chains could impact activity from February onwards. Meanwhile, tensions with the U.S. rose as the Trump administration decided to halt issuing visas over the Rohingya crisis; more positively, the EU stated Myanmar will continue enjoying preferential market access to its economy despite the crisis. This comes after the economy expanded at the quickest pace in four years in FY 2019, owing to robust growth in the industrial sector that offset a weak performance by the agricultural sector.Myanmar Economic Growth
This fiscal year, the economy is expected to grow at a broadly stable pace on the back of stronger infrastructure investment, robust manufacturing activity and greater foreign direct investment inflows, boosted by ongoing reforms. However, lingering global uncertainty, a stronger-than-expected slowdown in China and the outbreak of the coronavirus pose downside risks to the outlook. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 6.8% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 6.9% in FY 2021.Myanmar Economy Data
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 51.4 | 51.8 | 52.3 | 52.6 | 52.8 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,231 | 1,219 | 1,157 | 1,166 | 1,217 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 63.3 | 63.2 | 60.5 | 61.4 | 64.3 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.2 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.4 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.3 | -2.8 | -3.5 | -2.6 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 37.4 | 37.1 | 39.8 | 35.2 | 38.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 5.0 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 6.9 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,032 | 1,304 | 1,358 | 1,362 | 1,550 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 984.3 | 1,165 | 1,236 | 1,364 | 1,443 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -4.2 | -3.1 | -4.0 | -6.5 | -4.2 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.6 | -1.9 | -2.4 | -4.0 | -4.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -1.9 | -3.8 | -3.6 | -5.8 | -4.3 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 11.1 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 11.9 | 13.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 15.4 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 6.6 | -0.7 | -7.3 | 6.2 | 12.9 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 25.0 | 15.7 | -7.0 | 21.6 | -1.1 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 21.9 | 22.6 | 23.4 | 24.5 | 23.2 |
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Myanmar Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 16.00 | 0.0 % | Oct 15 |
| Exchange Rate | 1,476 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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