Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

December 18, 2017

The manufacturing PMI recorded a second consecutive month of expansion in November, chiefly led by strong domestic demand, which should bode well for Q4 growth. However, a second round of reforms is still needed to speed up economic growth according to the IMF, which concluded an annual Article IV consultation on 17 November. On 7 December, the new Myanmar Companies Act, which relaxes foreign investment regulations, was finally signed, allowing foreigners to hold an up to 35% stake in Burmese companies. Myanmar is, however, still facing significant international criticism over the Rohingya crisis; U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has called it “ethnic cleansing” and analysts warned it could affect development finance and investor sentiment.

Myanmar Economic Growth

The economic outlook remains favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. The banking sector remains fragile following new regulations, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis could dent investor sentiment and tourism. In addition, the government’s finances still suffer from fiscal and current account deficits. Our panel sees GDP expanding 7.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.5% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)50.551.051.451.852.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,1821,1801,2751,1481,269
GDP (USD bn)59.760.165.659.566.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.38.48.07.36.3
Unemployment Rate5.45.25.15.04.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.9-1.3-0.9-4.4-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.733.229.934.935.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.85.75.110.07.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)851.7983.81,0311,3011,350
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)640.7933.6984.41,1631,235
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-3.3-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.4-2.9-2.1-3.1-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.42.37.3-5.4-  
Exports (USD billion)9.811.418.011.4-  
Imports (USD billion)7.49.110.816.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.516.058.01.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)27.222.917.73.8-  
International Reserves (USD)7.04.54.83.84.6
External Debt (% of GDP)13.112.19.610.8-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Aug 15
Exchange Rate1,3690.0 %Dec 06

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