Myanmar Economic Outlook
An economy in crisis:
Myanmar’s economy, once considered a high-potential emerging market, has suffered from extreme instability since the military coup in 2021. The political crisis led to capital flight, international sanctions, and a collapse in investor confidence. GDP contracted sharply in 2021 and has struggled to recover, with widespread inflation, currency depreciation, and deteriorating living conditions.
Agriculture and natural resources dependency:Historically, Myanmar has relied on agriculture, gas exports, and resource extraction for economic growth. The country is rich in natural gas, jade, and timber, but mismanagement, corruption, and international restrictions have hampered development. Gas exports, particularly to China and Thailand, remain a crucial foreign exchange earner, though political uncertainty has discouraged further investment.
Sanctions and economic isolation:Western sanctions targeting the military regime have restricted trade and foreign investment. Many multinational companies, including major oil firms, have exited the country. This has forced Myanmar to rely increasingly on China and Russia for economic and diplomatic support. Banking sector instability, capital controls, and limited access to foreign currency have further damaged business confidence.
Myanmar’s economic outlook:Myanmar’s short-term economic prospects remain bleak, with continued political uncertainty, declining investment, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. While China-backed infrastructure projects could provide some support, economic recovery will depend on resolving the ongoing conflict and restoring investor confidence. Without a stable political environment, Myanmar risks prolonged economic decline and deepening poverty.
Myanmar's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 66.8 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 66.8 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 66.8 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 1,222 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,232 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,232 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 4.4% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 4.4% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 4.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 41.5% of overall GDP, manufacturing 25.6%, other industrial activity 12.5%, and agriculture 20.4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 47.4% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 20.7%, fixed investment 32.3%, and net exports -0.4%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 43.8% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 24.2%, food 28.4%, ores and metals 1.4% and agricultural raw materials 2.1%, with other categories accounting for 0.1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 53.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 32.8%, food 12.1%, ores and metals 0.9% and agricultural raw materials 0.5%, with other goods accounting for -0.1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 9.20 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 12.90 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 4.4% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Myanmar, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Myanmar's fiscal deficit averaged 3.5% of GDP in the decade to 2020. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.1% in the decade to 2020. For more information on Myanmar's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 5.8% in the decade to 2021. Go to our Myanmar inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Myanmar's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 7.00%, down from 10.00% a decade earlier. See our Myanmar monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the kyat weakened by 50.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the kyat, click here.
Economic situation in Myanmar
Myanmar’s economy remained subdued compared to the 10-year pre-pandemic average in fiscal year (FY) 2024 (April 2024–March 2025), with GDP expanding 1.5% year on year (2023: 1.0% yoy). The civil war choked productivity and worsened labor shortages, while typhoon landfall damaged the power grid and key harvests. Looking at FY 2025, the World Bank estimates that March’s earthquake should cause a reduction in economic output of around 4% of GDP in the year ending in March 2026; the disaster significantly reduced the operating capacity of manufacturing and retail plus wholesale firms. Moreover, conflict intensity rose again in recent months, despite ceasefire announcements after the earthquake. On a brighter note, tin exports from Myanmar are expected to rise in the coming months, after local authorities renewed licenses for select firms—the first such move in about two years.Myanmar Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.36 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 9 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Myanmar in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 36 economic indicators for Myanmar from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Myanmar economy. To download a sample report on the Myanmar's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.