Myanmar Economic Outlook
June 19, 2018Myanmar’s manufacturing sector remained in good shape through May. Despite a leveling off from the record high in the prior month, May’s PMI was buttressed by strong output and new order growth. To boost inward investment, the new companies law will come into effect on 1 August, allowing foreign companies to acquire an up to 35% stake in local firms. FDI inflows represented over a quarter of fixed investment in 2017, growing 45% over the year before. This comes after a move to open the retail and wholesale trade sector to foreign companies in early May.
Myanmar Economic GrowthRobust private and public consumption growth should drive the economy this year. However, a slowdown in structural reform progress, commodity price swings and a shaky banking sector pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts panelists expect GDP growth of 7.1% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.4% in 2019.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,180||1,275||1,147||1,210||1,264|
|GDP (USD bn)||60.1||65.6||59.5||63.3||66.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||8.4||8.0||7.0||5.9||6.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-2.5||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||33.2||29.9||34.5||35.7||34.7|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||5.7||5.1||10.0||6.8||5.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||983.8||1,032||1,304||1,358||1,362|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235||1,360|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.9||-2.2||-5.1||-3.9||-5.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.9||-1.4||-3.0||-2.5||-3.5|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-0.1||-1.9||-3.8||-3.7||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.4||10.0||10.0||9.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||9.5||11.9||13.7||12.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||14.4||6.6||-0.6||-8.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||24.8||25.0||15.5||-6.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.6||2.0||3.8||4.6||4.9|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||12.1||9.6||11.2||10.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||May 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,424||0.0 %||Jul 13|
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