Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

July 16, 2019

The economy has likely picked up steam so far this year. The manufacturing PMI remained firmly in expansionary territory through June, with output and new orders rising sharply. Moreover, business confidence hit an over two-year high in the same time period, boding well for the manufacturing sector ahead. Recent reforms have also started to bear fruit: In mid-June, a local bank became the first Burmese firm to acquire a foreign shareholder, following the new Companies Act approved last August. Improved growth dynamics in the year-to-date follow a moderation in GDP in the third quarter of last year—the latest period for which national accounts data is available—owing to a contraction in the agricultural sector, which was hit by flooding in mid-2018.

Myanmar Economic Growth

An increase in public expenditure and FDI inflows should buttress the economy this year, as growth is expected to rebound from last year’s weak outturn. However, a moderating Chinese economy, prolonged tensions in the Rakhine state and the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU all cloud the outlook. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel expects economic growth of 6.7% in FY2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in FY2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1881,2311,2191,1571,166
GDP (USD bn)60.563.363.260.561.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.3-2.8-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.441.641.847.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.85.09.47.04.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)988.01,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)872.0984.31,1651,2361,364
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-4.2-3.1-4.0-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-2.6-1.9-2.4-4.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.6-5.8
Exports (USD billion)9.410.010.09.29.8
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.812.815.6
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.7-7.36.2
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.7-7.021.6
International Reserves (USD)8.64.24.44.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)20.421.923.523.926.3

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Apr 15
Exchange Rate1,5130.0 %Jul 11

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