Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

The economy has likely continued to perform well so far this year after growth remained robust during the interim fiscal year period from April through September last year. Government reform efforts have seemingly come to fruition: Foreign investment nearly doubled in the first six months of this year compared to the first six months of last year, and the opening up of the insurance sector—which is a largely untapped market—should continue to boost foreign capital inflows. Furthermore, growth in the manufacturing sector remained robust in July, despite the manufacturing PMI easing to a four-month low amid softer new orders growth and reduced purchasing activity. In the same month, employment in the sector continued to rise, which bodes well for household consumption ahead.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate this year on strong FDI inflows and a pick-up in public expenditure. Moderating Chinese economic growth, lingering tensions in the Rakhine state and the potential loss of preferential market access to the EU cloud the outlook, however. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 6.7% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in FY 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1881,2311,2191,1571,166
GDP (USD bn)60.563.363.260.561.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-1.3-2.8-3.5-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.137.441.641.847.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)988.01,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)872.0984.31,1651,2361,364
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-4.2-3.1-4.0-6.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-2.6-1.9-2.4-4.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.6-5.8
Exports (USD billion)9.410.
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.812.815.6
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.7-7.36.2
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.7-7.021.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)20.421.923.523.926.3

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Myanmar Facts

Bond Yield16.000.0 %Jul 15
Exchange Rate1,5320.0 %Sep 04

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