Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

December 13, 2018

The manufacturing sector performed well in H1 but has taken a turn for the worse since: The manufacturing PMI dropped to below the 50-point mark in July and remained there through October. In November, however, the PMI returned to expansionary territory on increased output and new business. In November, the government set up a ministerial team tasked with reforming the wider economy; since taking power over two years ago, the government has faced criticism of slow reform progress. In the same month, the Central Bank announced foreign banks can set their own interest rates on local currency deposits, although rates cannot exceed 13.00%. Foreign banks will also be allowed to expand operations in 2019.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Economic growth should pick up next year on robust regional activity. Downside risks include sizeable twin deficits, exposure to adverse weather and potential loss of preferential market access to the EU. The panel sees growth at 6.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 7.2% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2101,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.48.07.05.96.7
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.75.110.06.85.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.410.010.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)8.62.03.84.64.9
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.210.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,5890.0 %Dec 12

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