Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

April 26, 2022

GDP cratered in FY 2021; our panelists estimate that the economy contracted 18.3% due to last year’s coup and the pandemic. Going into FY 2022, activity has likely begun to stabilize, especially in the manufacturing and export sectors, amid a fall in Covid-19 cases, a stabilizing currency and a favorable base effect. Despite remaining in contractionary territory, the Manufacturing PMI increased in October–December. Nonetheless, momentum likely remains tepid amid increasingly widespread anti-junta insurgency. The PMI reversed its October–December gains in January–March amid shortages of power, cash and raw materials. In addition, cumulative data from the Ministry of Commerce suggests that exports are down year on year so far in the current fiscal year, pointing to a subdued external sector. Multinational firms continue to dash for the exit door, suggesting significantly reduced investment.

Myanmar Economic Growth

In FY 2022 (October 2021–September 2022), our analysts project GDP to decline for the second year in a row. Despite a very favorable base effect, ongoing armed conflict will severely limit activity. Risks are tilted to the downside, with further international sanctions, the public health situation, a potential banking crisis and the value of the kyat all key factors to watch. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to shrink by 0.4% in FY 2022, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.2% in FY 2023.

Myanmar Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)51.852.352.652.853.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,1571,1661,2171,305
GDP (USD bn)63.260.561.464.369.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.05.95.86.46.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-3.9-2.7-3.0-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)35.837.838.336.338.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.47.04.66.98.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3041,3581,3621,5501,466
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1651,2361,3641,4431,522
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.4-4.2-6.5-4.2-2.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.2-2.5-4.0-4.2-1.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3-  
Exports (USD billion)10.09.29.811.1-  
Imports (USD billion)13.812.815.615.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.7-7.36.212.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.7-7.021.6-1.1-  
International Reserves (USD)4.44.64.95.35.5
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.424.523.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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