Myanmar Economic Outlook
August 25, 2020Covid-19 seems to have pushed the economy into a severe downturn in H1. Depressed foreign demand and severe disruptions to global supply chains dealt a heavy blow to the clothing industry, forcing factories to suspend operations and, in turn, prompting job shedding. This, coupled with falling remittances inflows, likely dented household spending in H1, while lingering uncertainty likely boded ill for investment activity. Moreover, travel restrictions hammered the tourism sector. Turning to H2, the manufacturing PMI rebounded in July, pointing to the first expansion in activity since January as both output and new orders gained traction. In politics, tensions remain high in the run-up to the November elections, after officials banned the head of the Rohingya-led opposition party from running for political office and announced that the vote in the war-torn Rakhine state might be postponed.
Myanmar Economic GrowthGrowth is expected to slump this year, battered by Covid-19. The external sector is set to be especially hard hit amid eviscerated foreign demand and vanishing tourist inflows. Similarly, investment activity will likely drop on weaker sentiment while falling remittances will weigh on household spending. The weak health system and a shaky banking sector pose downside risks. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 1.7% in FY 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month, and 6.6% in FY 2021.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,219||1,157||1,166||1,217||1,305|
|GDP (USD bn)||63.2||60.5||61.4||64.3||69.2|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.0||5.9||5.8||6.4||6.8|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-2.8||-3.9||-2.7||-3.0||-3.5|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||35.8||37.8||38.3||36.3||38.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||9.4||7.0||4.6||6.9||8.8|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||1,304||1,358||1,362||1,550||1,466|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||1,165||1,236||1,364||1,443||1,522|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-3.4||-4.2||-6.5||-4.2||-2.0|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.2||-2.5||-4.0||-4.2||-1.4|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-3.8||-3.6||-5.8||-4.3||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||10.0||9.2||9.8||11.1||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||13.8||12.8||15.6||15.4||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-0.7||-7.3||6.2||12.9||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||15.7||-7.0||21.6||-1.1||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||4.4||4.6||4.9||5.3||5.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||22.6||23.4||24.5||23.2||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||16.00||0.0 %||Oct 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,476||0.0 %||Jan 01|
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