Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

January 23, 2018

The manufacturing sector likely continued performing well at the end of last year; PMI remained in expansionary territory in December, supported by solid output expectations. The economy performed well despite the humanitarian crisis. Investors and local businesses have, however, lost confidence in the government’s ability to deliver needed reforms: Myanmar remains one of the least attractive countries in the region for investment. The National League for Democracy-led government focused on stabilizing government finances and inflation but failed to make real progress outside of those areas. However, the new Myanmar Companies Act will come into effect on 1 August: It is a major transformative step for the economy and should lead to greater inflows of foreign capital.

Myanmar Economic Growth

The balance of risks is tilted to the downside, with a fragile banking sector and the fallout from the humanitarian crisis looming over the economy. However, private consumption and fixed investment are expected to contribute to growth this year: Household spending should benefit from increased minimum wages. Our panel sees GDP expanding 7.4% in 2018 and 7.5% in 2019.

Myanmar Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)50.551.051.451.852.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,1821,1801,2751,1481,269
GDP (USD bn)59.760.165.659.566.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.38.48.07.36.3
Unemployment Rate5.45.25.15.04.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.9-1.3-0.9-4.4-4.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)40.733.229.934.935.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.85.75.110.07.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)851.7983.81,0311,3011,350
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)640.7933.6984.41,1631,235
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.0-4.9-3.3-5.2-6.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.4-2.9-2.1-3.1-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.42.37.3-5.4-  
Exports (USD billion)9.811.418.011.4-  
Imports (USD billion)7.49.110.816.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)1.516.058.01.2-  
Imports (annual variation in %)27.222.917.73.8-  
International Reserves (USD)7.04.54.83.84.6
External Debt (% of GDP)13.112.19.610.8-  

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Myanmar Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield13.000.0 %Feb 15
Exchange Rate1,3290.0 %Feb 16

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