Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

Economic momentum seems to have picked up in 2019, after markedly slowing last year owing to flooding in mid-2018, which hampered agricultural production, and lower government expenditure in efforts to close the fiscal shortfall. In January–April, the manufacturing sector’s operating conditions significantly improved from a weak H2 2018—which was induced by increased cost pressures and exchange rate volatility—while output and new orders growth strengthened in April. Although employment in the sector grew only marginally in April, domestic demand should have firmed up on softer inflation and a stronger kyat in the first quarter. Ongoing reform efforts since the start of the year should further strengthen the domestic side of the economy.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Greater FDI inflows and a more expansionary government budget should buttress economic growth this year but headwinds persist: slower Chinese economic growth and a potential loss of preferential market access to the EU would drag on exports, and prolonged tensions in the Rakhine state could hurt investor sentiment and expenditure. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel expects economic growth of 6.7% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 6.9% in 2020.

Myanmar Economy Data

Population (million)51.051.451.852.352.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,1801,2751,1471,2101,264
GDP (USD bn)60.165.659.563.366.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate4.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-0.9-4.4-2.5-3.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)33.229.934.535.734.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)983.81,0321,3041,3581,362
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)933.6984.41,1631,2351,360
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-2.2-5.1-3.9-5.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.9-1.4-3.0-2.5-3.5
Trade Balance (USD billion)-0.1-1.9-3.8-3.7-  
Exports (USD billion)9.410.010.09.1-  
Imports (USD billion)9.511.913.712.8-  
Exports (annual variation in %)14.46.6-0.6-8.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)24.825.015.5-6.8-  
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)12.19.611.210.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Bond Yield16.000.0 %Apr 15
Exchange Rate1,5270.0 %Jun 13

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