Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

The first half of FY 2020, which started in October, seems to have got off to a strong start. In the October–January period, the manufacturing PMI edged higher compared to the average for the prior fiscal year. In January in particular, growth in output, new orders and purchasing activity accelerated. However, the outbreak of the novel coronavirus and its disruptive effect on supply chains could impact activity from February onwards. Meanwhile, tensions with the U.S. rose as the Trump administration decided to halt issuing visas over the Rohingya crisis; more positively, the EU stated Myanmar will continue enjoying preferential market access to its economy despite the crisis. This comes after the economy expanded at the quickest pace in four years in FY 2019, owing to robust growth in the industrial sector that offset a weak performance by the agricultural sector.

Myanmar Economic Growth

This fiscal year, the economy is expected to grow at a broadly stable pace on the back of stronger infrastructure investment, robust manufacturing activity and greater foreign direct investment inflows, boosted by ongoing reforms. However, lingering global uncertainty, a stronger-than-expected slowdown in China and the outbreak of the coronavirus pose downside risks to the outlook. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 6.8% in FY 2020, which is unchanged from last month, and 6.9% in FY 2021.

Myanmar Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)51.451.852.352.652.8
GDP per capita (USD)1,2311,2191,1571,1661,217
GDP (USD bn)63.363.260.561.464.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.27.05.95.86.4
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.04.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.3-2.8-3.5-2.6-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.437.139.835.238.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.09.47.04.66.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,0321,3041,3581,3621,550
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)984.31,1651,2361,3641,443
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.2-3.1-4.0-6.5-4.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-2.6-1.9-2.4-4.0-4.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-1.9-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3
Exports (USD billion)10.010.09.29.811.1
Imports (USD billion)11.913.812.815.615.4
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-0.7-7.36.212.9
Imports (annual variation in %)25.015.7-7.021.6-1.1
International Reserves (USD)4.24.44.64.95.3
External Debt (% of GDP)21.922.623.424.523.2

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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