Myanmar Economic Outlook
December 18, 2017The manufacturing PMI recorded a second consecutive month of expansion in November, chiefly led by strong domestic demand, which should bode well for Q4 growth. However, a second round of reforms is still needed to speed up economic growth according to the IMF, which concluded an annual Article IV consultation on 17 November. On 7 December, the new Myanmar Companies Act, which relaxes foreign investment regulations, was finally signed, allowing foreigners to hold an up to 35% stake in Burmese companies. Myanmar is, however, still facing significant international criticism over the Rohingya crisis; U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has called it “ethnic cleansing” and analysts warned it could affect development finance and investor sentiment.
Myanmar Economic GrowthThe economic outlook remains favorable, but risks are tilted to the downside. The banking sector remains fragile following new regulations, and the ongoing humanitarian crisis could dent investor sentiment and tourism. In addition, the government’s finances still suffer from fiscal and current account deficits. Our panel sees GDP expanding 7.4% in 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 7.5% in 2019.
Myanmar Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||1,182||1,180||1,275||1,148||1,269|
|GDP (USD bn)||59.7||60.1||65.6||59.5||66.3|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.3||8.4||8.0||7.3||6.3|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||0.9||-1.3||-0.9||-4.4||-4.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||40.7||33.2||29.9||34.9||35.8|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||2.8||5.7||5.1||10.0||7.0|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00||10.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||851.7||983.8||1,031||1,301||1,350|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)||640.7||933.6||984.4||1,163||1,235|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-4.0||-4.9||-3.3||-5.2||-6.5|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-2.4||-2.9||-2.1||-3.1||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||2.4||2.3||7.3||-5.4||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||9.8||11.4||18.0||11.4||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||7.4||9.1||10.8||16.8||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||1.5||16.0||58.0||1.2||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||27.2||22.9||17.7||3.8||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||7.0||4.5||4.8||3.8||4.6|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||13.1||12.1||9.6||10.8||-|
5 years of Myanmar economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||13.00||0.0 %||Aug 15|
|Exchange Rate||1,369||0.0 %||Dec 06|
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