Myanmar Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
After activity took a likely severe hit in H1 amid the health crisis, the economic panorama remains bleak in H2, particularly in Q4, amid soaring Covid-19 infections. Following September’s dive, the manufacturing PMI slid further into contractionary territory in October—marking the worst reading since April—with output and new orders declining at a record pace. On a brighter note, on 8 November, Japan approved a low market rate loan to Myanmar worth JPY 42.8 billion (about USD 414 million) for infrastructure projects and financing businesses. In politics, the ruling National League for Democracy Party achieved a landslide victory in November’s general election, winning more than 83% of the seats in parliament. Thus, it maintained its two-third majority, allowing the party’s leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, to enact her agenda envisioning higher FDI and job creation.Myanmar Economic Growth
The economy is expected to grow at the slowest pace on record this year, before growth picks up solidly in 2021 on the back of strengthening clothing and natural gas exports and stable agricultural production. However, ongoing political tensions and elevated uncertainty over the trajectory of the pandemic cloud the outlook. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 5.9% in FY 2021, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.8% in FY 2022.Myanmar Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 51.8 | 52.3 | 52.6 | 52.8 | 53.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,219 | 1,157 | 1,166 | 1,217 | 1,305 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 63.2 | 60.5 | 61.4 | 64.3 | 69.2 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -3.9 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.3 | 36.3 | 38.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,304 | 1,358 | 1,362 | 1,550 | 1,466 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1,165 | 1,236 | 1,364 | 1,443 | 1,522 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -4.2 | -6.5 | -4.2 | -2.0 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.2 | -2.5 | -4.0 | -4.2 | -1.4 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.8 | -3.6 | -5.8 | -4.3 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 11.1 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 15.4 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -0.7 | -7.3 | 6.2 | 12.9 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 15.7 | -7.0 | 21.6 | -1.1 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 22.6 | 23.4 | 24.5 | 23.2 | - |
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Myanmar Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 16.00 | 0.0 % | Oct 15 |
| Exchange Rate | 1,476 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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