Myanmar Economic Forecast

Myanmar Economic Outlook

May 26, 2020

The economy is currently reeling from the Covid-19 fallout. Manufacturing activity deteriorated at the fastest pace on record in April, as output, new orders and employment all sank at record rates, amid suspended business operations as a result of the pandemic. On the external front, agriculture exports are suffering from plummeting foreign demand, while the tourism sector is being rocked by the collapse in air travel. In response, on 27 April, the government launched an economic relief plan, which envisages a credit guarantee scheme, tax deferrals and incentives for foreign investors. Meanwhile, the World Bank announced a three-year partnership with Myanmar on 13 May, on the heels of an emergency USD 50 million loan delivered by the Bank in April to support the healthcare system.

Myanmar Economic Growth

Growth is set to slow markedly this year as weaker external demand hurts the agriculture and manufacturing sectors. Moreover, foreign investment inflows will likely dwindle owing to the global nature of the health crisis. This could end up delaying investment projects and harming the government’s ability to act as it has limited fiscal space. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects economic growth of 2.8% in FY 2020, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month, and 6.0% in FY 2021.

Myanmar Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)51.852.352.652.853.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,1571,1661,2171,305
GDP (USD bn)63.260.561.464.369.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.05.95.86.46.8
Unemployment Rate4.04.04.04.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.8-3.5-2.6-2.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.139.835.238.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.47.04.66.98.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)10.0010.0010.0010.0010.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1,3041,3581,3621,5501,476
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1,1651,2361,3641,4431,522
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-4.0-6.5-4.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.9-2.4-4.0-4.2-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.8-3.6-5.8-4.3-  
Exports (USD billion)10.09.29.811.1-  
Imports (USD billion)13.812.815.615.4-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.7-7.36.212.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)15.7-7.021.6-1.1-  
International Reserves (USD)4.44.64.95.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.424.523.2-  

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Myanmar Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield16.000.0 %Oct 15
Exchange Rate1,4760.0 %Jan 01

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