Myanmar Economic Outlook
October 19, 2021
Economic prospects remained poor in Q3. Amid a low vaccination rate, a wave of Covid-19 infections hit the country in July, with new restrictions weighing on activity. The manufacturing PMI became more deeply entrenched in negative territory in the quarter, with material shortages compounding businesses’ economic difficulties. Moreover, the currency slid sharply in the period, likely intensifying cost pressures and hurting consumer and capital spending. Heading into Q4, although the currency has recovered some of its losses recently, the authorities’ measures to stop capital outflows will do little to address weak investor confidence or stem the withdrawal of large international corporations from the country. Armed conflict continues to intensify, and with the international community unlikely to intervene and the opposition remaining divided, a continuation of the status quo appears likely.Myanmar Economic Growth
This upcoming fiscal year (October 2021–September 2022), the economy is forecast to recover slightly, although growth will remain weighed down by continued armed conflict. Risks are tilted to the downside, with further international sanctions, the public health situation, a potential banking crisis and the value of the kyat all key factors to watch. The FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panel projects the economy to grow 2.8% in FY 2022, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and to grow 5.2% in FY 2023.Myanmar Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 51.8 | 52.3 | 52.6 | 52.8 | 53.0 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,219 | 1,157 | 1,166 | 1,217 | 1,305 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 63.2 | 60.5 | 61.4 | 64.3 | 69.2 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 6.8 |
| Unemployment Rate | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | - |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.8 | -3.9 | -2.7 | -3.0 | -3.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 35.8 | 37.8 | 38.3 | 36.3 | 38.2 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 9.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 8.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1,304 | 1,358 | 1,362 | 1,550 | 1,466 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1,165 | 1,236 | 1,364 | 1,443 | 1,522 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -4.2 | -6.5 | -4.2 | -2.0 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -2.2 | -2.5 | -4.0 | -4.2 | -1.4 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -3.8 | -3.6 | -5.8 | -4.3 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 10.0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 11.1 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 13.8 | 12.8 | 15.6 | 15.4 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -0.7 | -7.3 | 6.2 | 12.9 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 15.7 | -7.0 | 21.6 | -1.1 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 22.6 | 23.4 | 24.5 | 23.2 | - |
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Myanmar Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 16.00 | 0.0 % | Oct 15 |
| Exchange Rate | 1,476 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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