Korea Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
Comprehensive data released in December highlighted that annual economic growth decelerated significantly in the third quarter compared to the second quarter, although this was partly due to a high base effect. The slowdown in Q3 was most evident in fixed investment. In terms of the fourth and final quarter of 2018, the economy has shown mixed signs so far. In December, the Bank of Korea’s business confidence survey posted the most pessimistic reading since January 2017, boding poorly for fixed investment. Furthermore, consumer confidence was pessimistic in both October and November and was at its most downbeat since February 2017 in the latter, which hints at mild private consumption growth. On the plus side, however, the unemployment rate ticked down for a second consecutive month in October, while industrial production rebounded.Korea Economic Growth
Turning to next year, higher government spending should support economic activity. Moreover, although monetary policy will be tighter, it will remain accommodative by historical standards. However, significant global trade tensions, an economic slowdown in China and elevated domestic household debt threaten the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy will grow 2.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.Korea Economy Data
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Korea Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.98 | 1.55 % | Jan 16 |
| Exchange Rate | 1,120 | 0.21 % | Jan 16 |
| Stock Market | 2,106 | -0.40 % | Jan 16 |
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Korea Economic News
Korea: Business conditions worsen slightly in December
January 2, 2019
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), produced by Nikkei and reported by IHS Markit, rose to 49.8 in December from 48.6 in November.
Korea: Exports fall in December
January 2, 2019
Merchandise exports fell 1.2% year-on-year in December—contrasting November’s revised 4.1% increase (previously reported: +4.5% year-on-year)—to total USD 48.5 billion.
Korea: Inflation moderates in December
December 31, 2018
Consumer prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month in December, a less-pronounced drop than in November, when prices fell 0.7%.
Korea: Industrial production appears downbeat in November
December 28, 2018
Industrial production in the mining, manufacturing, and gas and electricity sectors rose 0.1% in November compared to the same month a year earlier, down from the revised 10.9% jump in October (previously reported: +10.7% year-on-year).
Korea: Forward-looking business confidence remains broadly unchanged for January
December 28, 2018
For January, the Bank of Korea’s forward-looking business confidence indicator (BSI) for manufacturers was stable at December’s 71 points, leaving it below the crucial 100-point threshold separating pessimism from optimism.
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