Haiti Economic Outlook

September 10, 2019

The economy remains in a bad way. Inflation rose to a fresh multi-year high in July, spurred by the weaker gourde—despite recent Central Bank intervention in the FX market to stabilize the currency—and corroding household purchasing power. Moreover, the tourism sector likely remains in the doldrums, as security concerns keep visitors away. This comes after activity was dampened in the second quarter by drought hitting the agriculture sector, and business sentiment curbed by public unrest. On the political front, President Jovenel Moïse survived an impeachment vote in August. Despite this, the event highlights the unstable political situation, which will continue to weigh on confidence going forward.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth this year will be paltry, depressed by elevated insecurity, political instability and high inflation weighing on household spending. A further deterioration of the security and political situation and vulnerability to natural disasters pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 0.8% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.1% in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.8	11.0
GDP per capita (USD)	804	819	793	705	776
GDP (USD bn)	8.4	8.7	8.5	7.7	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.2	2.8	1.2	1.5	1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.7	0.9	2.3	1.2	2.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	6.1	2.1	3.6	1.1	0.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.2	-6.4	-2.6	-0.1	-0.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	21.5	26.3	30.3	33.7	31.0
Money (annual variation in %)	6.3	8.9	14.6	5.5	10.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.4	6.4	12.5	14.3	10.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.9	4.6	9.0	13.8	14.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	10.25	10.25	12.50	13.33	11.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	43.88	46.75	56.70	67.39	63.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	43.47	45.22	49.87	63.30	64.77
Current Account (% of GDP)	-15.6	-15.2	-8.9	-5.8	-7.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.3	-1.3	-0.8	-0.4	-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	3.3	3.7	3.5	3.2	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	17.6	5.0	6.6	-2.8	-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.5	9.8	-5.9	-7.7	13.6
International Reserves (USD)	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	18.7	22.6	24.7	28.4	26.0

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	94.09	-1.13 %	Sep 04

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