Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

March 17, 2020

While firm data is largely lacking, the economy likely remains in a dismal state, rocked by civil unrest, political instability, elevated inflation, food insecurity and widespread layoffs hurting private consumption. Moreover, the police and the army have clashed in recent weeks in Port-au-Prince, after police protests over pay and conditions turned violent. In an attempt to calm tensions, the government announced it would allow the police to unionize, a key demand of protestors. On the political front, President Jovenel Moïse appointed Joseph Jouthe as the new prime minister in early March. The new PM will be tasked with stabilizing the economic situation, although the President’s decision to make the appointment by decree—Parliament is still not sitting—risks inflaming social tensions.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy is likely to contract this year, dragged on by weak business sentiment, social instability and political uncertainty. Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, the global coronavirus outbreak and a possible intensification of civil unrest, while the potential restoration of political stability poses an upside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee an economic contraction of 0.1% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, before growing 0.8% in 2021.

Haiti Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)10.610.710.811.011.1
GDP per capita (USD)819826740779882
GDP (USD bn)8.78.88.08.69.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.81.21.51.21.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.92.31.22.71.2
Investment (annual variation in %)2.13.61.10.92.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.4-2.50.00.2-2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)26.330.333.731.033.3
Money (annual variation in %)8.914.65.510.723.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.412.514.313.315.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.69.013.814.713.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)10.2512.5013.3311.5012.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)46.7556.5866.4662.0176.81
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)45.2250.2462.5463.9267.05
Current Account (% of GDP)-15.2-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-1.3-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.01.1
Imports (USD billion)3.73.43.23.64.5
Exports (annual variation in %)5.06.6-2.8-0.38.7
Imports (annual variation in %)9.8-5.9-7.713.723.9
International Reserves (USD)2.01.92.12.42.4
External Debt (% of GDP)22.623.727.025.422.6

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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