Haiti Economic Outlook

July 10, 2018

The economy appears better positioned in 2018 than it was last year. In recent months, loans have been announced totaling USD 225 million from Taiwan and the World Bank, which will go towards much-needed infrastructure investment. On 20 June, the IMF announced that it had agreed on policies with the Haitian government to improve the country’s fiscal standing. One of these policies included reduced subsidization of fuel prices, which was announced on 6 July. However, the government was forced to row back on this reform the following day, amid fierce public protests.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth should pick up this year as foreign aid boosts reconstruction efforts, although high levels of corruption and the low resilience of infrastructure to seasonal hurricanes remain key issues. Remittance inflows could also be hit by the ending of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians in the U.S. in 2019. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 2.2% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. The panel expects the economy to expand 2.8% in 2019.

Haiti Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.8	11.0
GDP per capita (USD)	804	819	793	705	776
GDP (USD bn)	8.4	8.7	8.5	7.7	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.2	2.8	1.2	1.5	1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.7	0.9	2.3	1.2	2.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	6.1	2.1	3.6	1.1	0.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.2	-6.4	-2.5	-0.1	-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	21.5	26.3	30.2	33.9	31.1
Money (annual variation in %)	6.3	8.9	14.6	5.5	10.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.4	6.4	12.5	14.3	13.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.9	4.6	9.0	13.8	14.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	10.25	10.25	12.50	13.33	11.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	43.88	46.75	56.70	67.39	63.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	43.47	45.22	49.87	63.30	64.77
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.5	-8.8	-3.2	-1.1	-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.8	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	3.3	3.7	3.4	3.2	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	18.1	5.0	7.1	-3.3	-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.1	10.1	-5.9	-7.7	13.6
International Reserves (USD)	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	18.6	22.4	24.5	28.2	-

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	67.39	-1.13 %	Jul 17

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