Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

June 11, 2019

The economic landscape remains bleak, soured by currency volatility, rampant inflation and public unrest over alleged government corruption, which will likely further worsen in the coming weeks. On 31 May, the court of auditors released its second report on the Petrocaribe scandal, which directly accuses President Jovenel Moise of taking part in the embezzlement scheme. The instability has particularly hit the tourism sector as it has prompted Western embassies to issue travel advisories. Meanwhile, the government is now reportedly unable to pay debts owed for fuel imports, critically threatening energy supply and economic prospects. On a more positive note, the Central Bank recently announced measures to support the currency.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth should remain feeble this year, as prospects of fuel shortages and elevated civil unrest weigh heavily on the economic outlook. Notably, a weakening gourde and tumbling investor confidence will likely further hamper investment, with infrastructure and residential construction projects particularly at risk. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 1.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.5% in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

Population (million)10.410.610.710.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705776
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.4-2.5-0.1-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.330.233.931.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.914.65.510.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)10.2510.2512.5013.3311.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7067.3963.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.3064.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-8.8-3.2-1.1-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)8.110.1-5.9-7.713.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.528.2-  

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Haiti Facts

Exchange Rate92.03-1.13 %Jun 13

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