Haiti Economic Outlook

December 4, 2018

Political unrest continued to derail economic activity in recent weeks, as public protests over the alleged siphoning of USD 3.8 billion of PetroCaribe funds resumed, morphing into violent anti-government demonstrations. Against this backdrop, the gourde continued to slide to record lows against the dollar throughout November, weighing on the energy import bill. This will hinder the government’s ongoing efforts to cut back on fuel subsidies, after its last attempt to hike fuel prices in July sparked large-scale protests. On the plus side, the EU recently confirmed a USD 40 million aid package for Haiti, to be disbursed in 2019.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth should accelerate next year, though the country’s prospects remain hampered by rampant corruption and political instability. The potential ending of the temporary protected status for Haitians in the U.S. after July 2019 is a significant downside risk, as it would also hit all-important remittance inflows. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 2.1% in 2019, down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% again in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.8	11.0
GDP per capita (USD)	804	819	793	705	776
GDP (USD bn)	8.4	8.7	8.5	7.7	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.2	2.8	1.2	1.5	1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.7	0.9	2.3	1.2	2.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	6.1	2.1	3.6	1.1	0.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.2	-6.4	-2.5	-0.1	-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	21.5	26.3	30.2	33.9	31.1
Money (annual variation in %)	6.3	8.9	14.6	5.5	10.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.4	6.4	12.5	14.3	13.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.9	4.6	9.0	13.8	14.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	10.25	10.25	12.50	13.33	11.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	43.88	46.75	56.70	67.39	63.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	43.47	45.22	49.87	63.30	64.77
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.5	-8.8	-3.2	-1.1	-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.8	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	3.3	3.7	3.4	3.2	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	18.1	5.0	7.1	-3.3	-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.1	10.1	-5.9	-7.7	13.6
International Reserves (USD)	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	18.6	22.4	24.5	28.2	-

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	74.99	-1.13 %	Dec 12

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