Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

May 19, 2020

The economy is reeling from the coronavirus pandemic, which has compounded the already-severe effects of months of social unrest and political instability. Containment measures are damaging domestic activity, while remittances from abroad—a vital source of income for many families—are being hit by surging unemployment in the U.S. Moreover, food insecurity is an urgent concern, which is made worse by drought conditions in some areas, and the recent depreciation of the gourde likely fanning inflation. More positively, international support has been forthcoming: The IMF has announced USD 112 million in emergency funding, while the World Bank has pledged USD 30 million and the U.S. aid agency has also offered support.

Haiti Economic Growth

Economic activity will shrink markedly this year, dragged on by lower remittances, domestic containment measures and weak business sentiment. Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, a potential worsening of the viral outbreak and a possible resurgence of civil unrest. FocusEconomics panelists foresee an economic contraction of 3.7% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 1.0% in 2021.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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