Haiti Economic Outlook

December 3, 2019

In the second half of the year, the economy will be suffering heavy damage from ongoing social unrest, which is occurring against a backdrop of fuel shortages and elevated inflation. Business and consumer sentiment are being severely hampered, while humanitarian aid has been disrupted due to road blockages and insecurity. This comes after the economy contracted slightly in Q2 on lower agricultural, mining and manufacturing output. In November, the IMF concluded a staff visit, and urged the government to take necessary steps to restore macroeconomic stability, publish a 2020 budget framework and tackle corruption. The Fund also stated that a financial support package announced in March this year had been shelved; any chance of securing IMF funding ahead will depend on a credible economic reform program.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy should recover somewhat in 2020, although this hinges on a stabilization of the political situation. In any case, growth will be mild, weighed on by still-elevated insecurity and high inflation. A potential intensification of social unrest and vulnerability to natural disasters pose downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 1.1% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 1.3% in 2021.

Haiti Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.8	11.0
GDP per capita (USD)	804	819	793	705	776
GDP (USD bn)	8.4	8.7	8.5	7.7	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.2	2.8	1.2	1.5	1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.7	0.9	2.3	1.2	2.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	6.1	2.1	3.6	1.1	0.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.2	-6.4	-2.6	-0.1	-0.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	21.5	26.3	30.3	33.7	31.0
Money (annual variation in %)	6.3	8.9	14.6	5.5	10.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.4	6.4	12.5	14.3	10.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.9	4.6	9.0	13.8	14.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	10.25	10.25	12.50	13.33	11.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	43.88	46.75	56.70	67.39	63.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	43.47	45.22	49.87	63.30	64.77
Current Account (% of GDP)	-15.6	-15.2	-8.9	-5.8	-7.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-1.3	-1.3	-0.8	-0.4	-0.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	3.3	3.7	3.5	3.2	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	17.6	5.0	6.6	-2.8	-0.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.5	9.8	-5.9	-7.7	13.6
International Reserves (USD)	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	18.7	22.6	24.7	28.4	26.0

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	87.66	-1.13 %	Jan 01

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