Haiti Economic Outlook

September 15, 2020

The economy was hard-hit by Covid-19 in the second quarter. Containment measures and the volatile security situation dampened domestic activity, while border closures, the downturn abroad and the closure of textile factories due to the health crisis hurt the external sector. Moreover, the agricultural sector was hurt by weak rainfall, with the ensuing poor harvest spurring price pressures. Turning to Q3, conditions should be improving somewhat, as restrictions were lifted in July amid lower new coronavirus case numbers: Borders are now open, with textile factories permitted to operate at full capacity. However, extremely high inflation, frequent electricity blackouts and elevated insecurity are likely holding back the recovery.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy will shrink sharply this year, dragged on by domestic containment measures, weaker demand abroad and sociopolitical instability. Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, a potential worsening of the viral outbreak and a possible resurgence of civil unrest. FocusEconomics panelists foresee an economic contraction of 4.1% in 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 1.4% in 2021.

Haiti Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	10.7	10.8	11.0	11.1	11.2
GDP per capita (USD)	826	740	779	882	-
GDP (USD bn)	8.8	8.0	8.6	9.8	-
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	1.2	1.5	1.2	1.5	-
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.3	1.2	2.7	1.2	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	3.6	1.1	0.9	2.3	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.7	-3.0	-1.7	-4.6	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	30.3	33.7	31.0	33.3	-
Money (annual variation in %)	14.6	5.5	10.7	23.3	10.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	12.5	14.3	13.3	15.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	9.0	13.8	14.7	13.7	-
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	12.50	13.33	11.50	12.50	10.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	56.58	66.46	62.01	76.81	87.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	50.24	62.54	63.92	67.05	88.97
Current Account (% of GDP)	-8.6	-5.5	-7.6	-7.4	-
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.8	-0.4	-0.6	-0.7	-
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6	-3.4	-
Exports (USD billion)	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.1	-
Imports (USD billion)	3.4	3.2	3.6	4.5	-
Exports (annual variation in %)	6.6	-2.8	-0.3	8.7	-
Imports (annual variation in %)	-5.9	-7.7	13.7	23.9	-
International Reserves (USD)	1.9	2.1	2.4	2.4	-
External Debt (% of GDP)	23.7	27.0	25.4	22.6	-

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	87.66	-1.13 %	Jan 01

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