Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

October 11, 2021

The economy remains in the doldrums heading into the final quarter of the year. Compounding the uncertainty arising from President Moïse’s assassination on 7 July came an earthquake on 14 August. A subsequent storm and widespread gang violence have since hindered rescue and recovery efforts. Moreover, the political crisis has worsened in recent weeks. In mid-September, Prime Minister Ariel Henry fired the justice minister and the chief public prosecutor, following the latter’s request that the PM be charged with involvement in the president’s assassination. Later in the month, Henry delayed elections and a referendum to modify the constitution—which could grant the presidency greater power—until next year. Amid the ongoing economic calamity and a large revenue shortfall, the government recently slashed its spending projections in an amended FY 2021 budget.

Haiti Economic Growth

Following last year’s decline, GDP is expected to grow only slightly this year, as ongoing political and social turmoil weigh on activity, with the economy set to recover more strongly in 2022. The highly uncertain political situation remains a key downside risk, as does the possibility of further Covid-19 waves. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 0.7% in 2021 before growth of 2.4% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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