Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

March 12, 2019

The economy remains rife with instability and unrest, as anti-government protests continue to simmer more than a month after the publication of a damning report on the embezzlement of several billion dollars of PetroCaribe funds. President Jovenel Moise, who is reportedly implicated in the scheme, has thus far refused to step down. In turn, the economy likely took a hit due to the instability, with several countries issuing travel advisories and airlines cancelling flights in a blow to the tourism sector. In more positive news, the U.S. administration recently renewed temporary protected status for 50,000 Haitian residents until January 2020. Meanwhile, in early March, the IMF agreed to provide Haiti with a three-year USD 229 million loan as part of an Extended Credit Facility.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth is seen picking up this fiscal year from 2018’s feeble showing. Nevertheless, rampant corruption, political instability and natural disasters remain key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 2.2% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

Population (million)10.410.610.710.811.0
GDP per capita (USD)804819793705776
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Consumption (annual variation in %)
Investment (annual variation in %)
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-7.2-6.4-2.5-0.1-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)21.526.330.233.931.1
Money (annual variation in %)6.38.914.65.510.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.46.412.514.313.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)10.2510.2512.5013.3311.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)43.8846.7556.7067.3963.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)43.4745.2249.8763.3064.77
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.5-8.8-3.2-1.1-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.8-0.3-0.1-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.7-2.4-2.2-2.6
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)
Imports (annual variation in %)8.110.1-5.9-7.713.6
International Reserves (USD)
External Debt (% of GDP)18.622.424.528.2-  

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Haiti Facts

Exchange Rate81.10-1.13 %Mar 20

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