Haiti Economic Forecast

Haiti Economic Outlook

November 10, 2020

The economy shrank 6.1% year-on-year in Q2, according to the Statistical Institute’s economic activity indicator. The contraction was broad-based, with the manufacturing sector suffering a particularly sharp decline. Turning to Q3, momentum appeared to improve, as measures introduced to curb the spread of Covid-19 were lifted in July. Moreover, remittances surged in July and August, which likely supported private consumption, while better weather conditions should have aided agricultural output. Turning to Q4, the recent rapid appreciation of the gourde, caused by Central Bank interventions, is having mixed effects: While many citizens are benefiting from lower price pressures, exporters and those relying on remittances are suffering. In other news, sociopolitical instability rose in October amid violent protests in the capital and President Moïse’s proposal for a new constitution.

Haiti Economic Growth

The economy will expand tepidly next year following a marked contraction in 2020, hampered by the fragile sociopolitical situation and elevated insecurity. Downside risks include vulnerability to natural disasters, a potential worsening of the viral outbreak, uncertainty over the new constitution and a resurgence of civil unrest. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 2.1% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before growth of 2.0% in 2022.

Haiti Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)10.710.811.011.111.2
GDP per capita (USD)826740779882-  
GDP (USD bn)8.88.08.69.8-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.21.51.21.5-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)2.31.22.71.2-  
Investment (annual variation in %)3.61.10.92.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.7-3.0-1.7-4.6-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)30.333.731.033.3-  
Money (annual variation in %)14.65.510.723.310.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)12.514.313.315.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.013.814.713.7-  
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)12.5013.3311.5012.5010.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)56.5866.4662.0176.8187.66
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)50.2462.5463.9267.0588.97
Current Account (% of GDP)-8.6-5.5-7.6-7.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.8-0.4-0.6-0.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-2.2-2.6-3.4-  
Exports (USD billion)1.01.01.01.1-  
Imports (USD billion)3.43.23.64.5-  
Exports (annual variation in %)6.6-2.8-0.38.7-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.9-7.713.723.9-  
International Reserves (USD)1.92.12.42.4-  
External Debt (% of GDP)23.727.025.422.6-  

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Haiti Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate87.66-1.13 %Jan 01

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