Haiti Economic Outlook

February 12, 2019

The economy remained frail in the last quarter of FY2018—which ran from October to September—as demonstrated by a mild contraction in the economic activity indicator, due to declines in both the agricultural and industrial sectors. Moreover, the employment index also fell in the quarter. On 1 February, the government signed a pact with the Central Bank to reduce public spending and stabilize the currency. Meanwhile on the same day, the Court of Accounts presented a report to parliament regarding the embezzlement of PetroCaribe funds, estimated at USD 2.3 billion. In response, Haitians staged massive protests on 6-11 February, demanding the resignation of President Jovenel Moïse, who was reportedly complicit in the corruption scheme.

Haiti Economic Growth

Growth should pick up this fiscal year from 2018’s feeble showing. Nevertheless, rampant corruption, political instability and natural disasters remain key downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists foresee growth of 2.2% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.

Haiti Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	10.4	10.6	10.7	10.8	11.0
GDP per capita (USD)	804	819	793	705	776
GDP (USD bn)	8.4	8.7	8.5	7.7	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	4.2	2.8	1.2	1.5	1.2
Consumption (annual variation in %)	2.7	0.9	2.3	1.2	2.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	6.1	2.1	3.6	1.1	0.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-7.2	-6.4	-2.5	-0.1	-1.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)	21.5	26.3	30.2	33.9	31.1
Money (annual variation in %)	6.3	8.9	14.6	5.5	10.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.4	6.4	12.5	14.3	13.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.9	4.6	9.0	13.8	14.7
Benchmark Interest Rate (%)	10.25	10.25	12.50	13.33	11.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	43.88	46.75	56.70	67.39	63.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	43.47	45.22	49.87	63.30	64.77
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.5	-8.8	-3.2	-1.1	-2.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.8	-0.3	-0.1	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.4	-2.7	-2.4	-2.2	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	0.9	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	3.3	3.7	3.4	3.2	3.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	18.1	5.0	7.1	-3.3	-1.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	8.1	10.1	-5.9	-7.7	13.6
International Reserves (USD)	2.4	2.0	1.9	2.1	2.4
External Debt (% of GDP)	18.6	22.4	24.5	28.2	-

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Haiti Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	81.72	-1.13 %	Feb 20

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