Brunei Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
The economy likely rebounded in the third quarter of 2018 on the back of elevated energy prices, following the second quarter’s contraction in annual terms. Turning to the fourth quarter, however, the sharp drop in oil prices in November and December likely depressed the external sector. Looking forward, although limited, the recent recovery in oil prices—thanks to OPEC’s decision to cut oil production—should bode well for the economy in Q1 2019.Brunei Economic Growth
This year, the external sector and government revenues will benefit from new energy projects coming online. Solid FDI will also give a boost to the economy. However, a still-large fiscal deficit may impact plans to diversify the economy away from the oil sector, darkening the outlook. The panel expects GDP to expand 3.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.Brunei Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,675 | 41,599 | 31,007 | 26,958 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.5 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 13.0 | 3.6 | -14.5 | -21.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 20.9 | 30.7 | 16.0 | 9.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -12.0 | -8.2 | -39.5 | -17.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.1 | -0.4 | -10.3 | -17.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.36 | 0.0 % | Feb 14 |
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