Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Final figures confirmed that while the economic contraction softened in the final quarter of 2021 (Q4: -1.4%; Q3: -1.8%), GDP for 2021 as a whole fell 1.6%—the sharpest contraction in five years. Q4’s result came amid the ongoing impact of the pandemic: a sluggish performance of oil and gas production, as well as a marked slowdown in exports and government spending. Turning to this year, robust demand from key trading partners and higher commodity prices led annual exports growth to accelerate at the outset of 2022. Moreover, last year’s discovery of 42 million barrels-worth of oil is expected to boost production and buttress exports, especially as Western countries search for alternatives to Russian oil. Business sentiment, similarly, remained upbeat in January–April due to expectations of improved demand as the country recovers from its most recent wave of Covid-19 cases.

Brunei Economic Growth

The economy is projected to bounce back to growth in 2022 as pandemic-related restrictions ease and both domestic and foreign demand recover. The government’s Early Endemic Phase plan should boost consumer spending, while plans to increase oil and gas production will bolster investment. A possible resurgence of Covid-19 infections could nonetheless hinder growth ahead. The panel sees GDP expanding 4.2% in 2022, which is up 0.3 percentage points from the prior month’s projection, and 2.9% in 2023.

Brunei Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)31,38327,34628,21130,68930,135
GDP (USD bn)12.911.412.113.613.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.6-2.51.30.13.9
Unemployment Rate7.88.69.39.29.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-14.5-21.7-10.6-3.6-10.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)3.03.02.82.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.4-1.30.1-0.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.531.531.561.591.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.541.521.601.561.51
Current Account (% of GDP)16.712.916.47.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.21.52.01.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.92.22.42.42.1
Exports (USD billion)6.14.85.56.67.2
Imports (USD billion)3.22.73.14.25.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.9-21.413.820.110.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-12.3-17.315.535.722.4
International Reserves (USD)3.23.33.33.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  

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Brunei Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.340.0 %Jan 01

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