Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

February 20, 2018

After returning to growth in the previous quarter, the economy accelerated in Q3, partly thanks to recovering oil prices. Moreover, economic momentum looks positive for Q4 and into 2018. Merchandise exports in November surged 40% year-on-year, driven by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) but also by non-oil exports, signaling that economic diversification efforts are bearing fruit. Furthermore, healthy economic growth in Japan, the country’s main LNG export market, and the scheduled signing of the new TPP on March 8 should improve the outlook. On 30 January, the Sultan of Brunei announced a surprise cabinet reshuffle, replacing, among others, the ministers of finance, energy and foreign affairs.

Brunei Economic Growth

Brunei’s economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. Nevertheless, higher oil prices bode well for growth, while the strengthening of global trade ties should support expansion in the non-oil sector over the medium term. Panelists expect GDP to expand 2.6% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and foresee a 3.4% expansion in 2019.

Brunei Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)47,62044,56741,56131,00726,958
GDP (USD bn)19.018.117.112.911.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)0.9-2.1-2.4-0.6-2.5
Unemployment Rate1.71.71.71.92.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)15.713.03.6-14.5-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)2.12.23.23.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.10.4-0.2-0.4-0.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.611.661.681.531.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.611.741.601.541.52
Current Account (% of GDP)29.820.930.716.0-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.73.85.32.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.47.86.93.12.2
Exports (USD billion)13.011.410.56.34.9
Imports (USD billion)3.63.63.63.22.7
Exports (annual variation in %)4.3-12.0-8.2-39.7-23.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-1.61.1-0.4-10.1-17.4
International Reserves (USD)3.33.43.53.23.3
External Debt (% of GDP)10.7-  -  -  -  

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Brunei Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate1.320.0 %Feb 22

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