Brunei Economic Outlook
May 26, 2020
The oil-dependent economy will have suffered in the first and second quarter of this year, hammered by plunging oil prices, collapsing demand for energy from abroad and the broader economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. Mineral fuels make up nearly 90% of exports and vanishing demand is projected to have crippled the economy and dried up public revenues. That said, data from January and February—before the coronavirus outbreak—showed exports soared on the back of surging foreign sales of oil, gas and chemicals. Meanwhile, as part of efforts to mitigate the economic and social effects of the pandemic and following an economic stimulus package adopted earlier, in early May the government announced a reduction of annual commercial property tax of up to 50% for business landlords.Brunei Economic Growth
The economy is seen slowing down this year due to Covid-19 battering domestic and external demand. Moreover, depressed oil prices further complicate the already troubled economic panorama. Downside risks to the outlook from low commodity prices remain high. The panel sees GDP expanding 1.4% in 2020, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2021.Brunei Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 31,383 | 27,346 | 28,211 | 30,689 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 12.9 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 13.6 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -0.6 | -2.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -14.5 | -21.7 | -10.6 | -3.6 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.2 | 0.1 | - |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.51 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 16.7 | 12.9 | 16.4 | 7.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.5 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.1 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -44.9 | -21.4 | 13.8 | 18.2 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -12.3 | -17.3 | 15.5 | 33.7 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.34 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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