Brunei Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
The economy appears to have rebounded in the third quarter from the second quarter’s contraction, mainly due to a recovery in the oil sector. Growth in merchandise exports accelerated notably in Q3, reflecting a rise in oil prices in the July–September period as well as solid shipments of chemical products. Imports were also robust in Q3 as new investment projects propelled imports of machinery and equipment. The sharp correction in oil prices in Q4, however, threatens Brunei’s recovery given that oil represents over 80% of both total exports and government revenues.Brunei Economic Growth
Brunei will benefit from new energy projects coming online next year, especially downstream facilities. However, heightened volatility in the oil market is clouding the country’s economic outlook due to its high exposure to the oil sector. The panel expects GDP to expand 3.1% in 2019, which is down 0.7 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.2% in 2020.Brunei Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,675 | 41,599 | 31,007 | 26,958 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.5 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 13.0 | 3.6 | -14.5 | -21.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 20.9 | 30.7 | 16.0 | 9.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -12.0 | -8.2 | -39.5 | -17.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.1 | -0.4 | -10.3 | -17.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.37 | 0.0 % | Dec 12 |
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