Brunei Economic Outlook
August 20, 2019
The economy contracted in Q1, marking the third quarterly contraction over the past four quarters. A sharp decline in the oil and gas sector, as falling LNG and natural gas output more than offset higher crude oil production, drove the economy to shrink in the quarter. On the expenditure side, private consumption growth was robust but down slightly from the quarter prior. Meanwhile, government consumption and investment growth slowed sharply in the first quarter. Looking at the second quarter, while data is limited, the external sector appeared to perform well at the outset of the period as merchandise trade data showed higher LNG and crude oil exports in April.Brunei Economic Growth
The economy is expected to gain momentum this year despite a weak start, thanks to a stronger oil sector and healthy investment spending on infrastructure projects, including the 30-kilometer Temburong Bridge, the Hengyi refinery and a large industrial fertilizer plant. Volatile energy prices, however, are a risk to the outlook. The panel expects GDP to expand 2.1% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2020.Brunei Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,897 | 41,905 | 31,383 | 27,346 | 28,276 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | 12.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.5 | 1.3 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 9.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 13.0 | 3.6 | -14.5 | -21.7 | -10.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 20.9 | 30.7 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 16.4 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 6.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.8 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 4.9 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -8.1 | -6.1 | -44.9 | -21.4 | 13.8 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 19.3 | -25.3 | -12.3 | -17.3 | 15.5 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.38 | 0.0 % | Sep 04 |
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