Brunei Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019
Economic growth in Q4 2018 bounced back from two consecutive quarters of year-on-year contractions. The expansion was driven by robust gains in the non-energy sector, as finance activities surged and growth in government services accelerated. In contrast, the energy sector continued to drag on growth as oil and gas mining, and manufacturing of LNG and methanol declined year-on-year. That being said, this was likely due in part to unplanned repair and maintenance restraining production and the energy sector is seen improving going forward. Turning to 2019, data is still limited, although merchandise oil and gas exports jumped in January in annual terms.Brunei Economic Growth
This year, the economy is expected to gain momentum thanks to a modest recovery in the energy sector as refineries resume normal production, and amid healthy spending on infrastructure projects. However, the economy remains vulnerable to volatility in oil and gas prices. The panel expects GDP to expand 2.6% in 2019, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.Brunei Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,675 | 41,599 | 31,007 | 26,958 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.5 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 13.0 | 3.6 | -14.5 | -21.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 20.9 | 30.7 | 16.0 | 9.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -12.0 | -8.2 | -39.5 | -17.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.1 | -0.4 | -10.3 | -17.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.36 | 0.0 % | Apr 22 |
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