Brunei Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018
Economic momentum likely remained positive in the second quarter, buoyed by strong growth in the oil sector, which is benefiting from higher oil prices and robust global demand. In May, merchandise exports fell marginally in annual terms following April’s surge. Nonetheless, oil exports picked up and liquified natural gas (LNG) exports recovered on strong demand from Japan, Brunei’s largest LNG export recipient. Imports, on the other hand, surged over 40% in May on robust machinery and transport equipment imports, suggesting fixed investment also strengthened.Brunei Economic Growth
The economic recovery is expected to firm up in 2019 supported by stronger overseas orders and the government’s diversification plans. Nevertheless, the economy remains vulnerable to fluctuations in commodity prices. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to expand 1.6% in 2018. They project a 4.2% expansion in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.Brunei Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 44,675 | 41,599 | 31,007 | 26,958 | - |
| GDP (USD bn) | 18.1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 11.4 | - |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -2.1 | -2.3 | -0.6 | -2.5 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 13.0 | 3.6 | -14.5 | -21.5 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 2.2 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 3.0 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.4 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.66 | 1.68 | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.74 | 1.60 | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 20.9 | 30.7 | 16.0 | 9.6 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 3.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 2.6 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.4 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 5.2 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 2.7 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -12.0 | -8.2 | -39.5 | -17.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 1.1 | -0.4 | -10.3 | -17.3 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.38 | 0.0 % | Oct 12 |
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