Brunei Economic Forecast

Brunei Economic Outlook

December 16, 2021

The economy contracted at a sharper year-on-year pace in the second quarter, as a planned refinery shutdown led to a sizable decline in the hydrocarbon sector, which in turn weighed heavily on the performance of the external sector. Although data for the third quarter is scarce, conditions seemingly remained downbeat in the period, due to containment measures implemented amid a rise in Covid-19 cases. That said, data for the quarter shows surging merchandise exports compared to last year, fueled by soaring sales of mineral fuels. On the pandemic front, in mid-November some restrictions were eased for fully vaccinated individuals, and in early December the country began to administer second vaccine doses for young people aged 12 to 17. Moreover, authorities announced that they will restart non-essential international travel once 80% of the population has been vaccinated.

Brunei Economic Growth

GDP growth should gather momentum next year. A stronger external sector will support the economy, while a solid expansion in consumer and government expenditure amid a supportive fiscal stance will also benefit activity. That said, pandemic-related uncertainty is the main factor to watch. The panel sees GDP expanding 3.0% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from the prior month’s projection, and 2.4% in 2023.

Brunei Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)0.40.40.40.40.4
GDP per capita (USD)31,38327,34628,21130,68930,135
GDP (USD bn)12.911.412.113.613.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.6-2.51.30.13.9
Unemployment Rate7.88.69.39.29.2
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-14.5-21.7-10.6-3.6-10.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)3.03.02.82.6-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)-0.3-0.4-1.30.1-0.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.505.505.505.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.531.531.561.591.53
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.541.521.601.561.51
Current Account (% of GDP)16.712.916.47.9-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)2.21.52.01.1-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)2.92.22.42.42.1
Exports (USD billion)6.14.85.56.67.2
Imports (USD billion)3.22.73.14.25.1
Exports (annual variation in %)-44.9-21.413.820.110.2
Imports (annual variation in %)-12.3-17.315.535.722.4
International Reserves (USD)3.23.33.33.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  

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Brunei Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate1.340.0 %Jan 01

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