Brunei Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020
Economic growth gathered pace in Q2, despite the constraining effects of the pandemic. A sizable acceleration in household spending, a much softer contraction in government consumption, and resilient export growth more than offset a sharper downturn in investment activity. Soaring output at the Hengyi Industries’ oil refinery and petrochemical plant also supported growth in Q2. However, activity likely lost some steam in Q3. Merchandise exports contracted in annual terms in July, mainly on the back of plunging foreign sales of crude oil and LNG. That said, imports surged in the same month, pointing to resilient domestic demand, and the positive health situation bodes well for activity ahead. On the political front, the ministry of finance is reportedly preparing an economic blueprint focused on strengthening the private sector, which should improve the business climate in coming years.Brunei Economic Growth
Following a slowdown in 2020, growth is expected to gain steam next year. A rebound in investment activity, an expansionary fiscal stance and stronger household spending should support domestic demand, while the reopening of the global economy will support the external sector. That said, the unpredictable evolution of the pandemic clouds the outlook. The panel sees GDP expanding 2.7% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from the prior month’s projection, and 3.2% in 2022.Brunei Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 31,383 | 27,346 | 28,211 | 30,689 | 30,135 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 12.9 | 11.4 | 12.1 | 13.6 | 13.5 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | -0.6 | -2.5 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.9 |
| Unemployment Rate | 7.8 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -14.5 | -21.7 | -10.6 | -3.6 | -10.5 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 3.0 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.6 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.3 | -0.4 | -1.3 | 0.1 | -0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 1.53 | 1.53 | 1.56 | 1.59 | 1.53 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 1.54 | 1.52 | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.51 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 16.7 | 12.9 | 16.4 | 7.9 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 6.1 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -44.9 | -21.4 | 13.8 | 20.1 | 10.2 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -12.3 | -17.3 | 15.5 | 35.7 | 22.4 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | - | - | - | - | - |
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Brunei Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1.34 | 0.0 % | Jan 01 |
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