East Asia Economic Outlook
Our Consensus is for GDP growth to slow this year from last, and panelists have cut their Consensus forecasts since the start of the year to reflect greater U.S. protectionism. That said, export front-loading will boost H1 activity, and domestic stimulus measures and strong global AI demand will be tailwinds throughout 2025. U.S. trade policy is the key risk.
East Asia Inflation
Price pressures are low in most of East Asia—especially in China, where prices fell year on year for the third straight month in April—due to huge manufacturing capacity and elevated savings rates. On average in 2025, East Asian inflation will average the lowest among all world regions, though Mongolia will see high inflation due to strong private spending.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2023.
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 11,867 | 14,215 | 14,203 | 14,229 | 14,632 |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 2.7 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 3.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.8 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 |
| Private Consumption (annual variation in %) | -2.9 | 10.9 | 1.2 | - | - |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 2.7 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.8 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.7 | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 63.6 | 65.1 | 70.1 | 75.7 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.2 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.35 | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 3.1 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 3,962 | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,333 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 3,376 | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,254 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,826 | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.2 | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | - |