East Asia Economic Outlook
Our panelists have revised up their 2027 GDP growth forecasts in recent weeks in light of stronger-than-expected GDP readings in Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan. The regional economy is still set to slow from 2026 though, as goods exports growth cools and rate hikes temper domestic demand in several economies. A sudden pullback in AI spending is a key downside risk.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation has averaged below 3.0% across most of the region so far this year, with Mongolia standing out as a notable exception at around 10%. Our Consensus forecasts indicate that this disparity will persist in the coming years, with inflation remaining subdued in most economies while price pressures stay relatively elevated in Mongolia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.2 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,448 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,360 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -3.0 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,265 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 90 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |