East & South Asia Economic Forecast

Economic Snapshot for East & South Asia

June 22, 2022

GDP growth to lose steam in 2022

The regional economy will lose steam this year. Covid-19 restrictions and a weak property sector will weigh on activity in China, spilling over to neighbors in the form of supply disruptions and softer export demand. In the region excluding China, rising interest rates and inflation could also dampen consumption and investment. A prolonged Chinese slowdown is a key risk.

Inflation to average higher compared to 2021

Regional inflation was stable at 2.4% in May. Inflation should average higher this year than in 2021, due to lower unemployment, pricier global food and fuel, and renewed supply disruptions amid the Russia-Ukraine war and China’s lockdowns. That said, mild demand will tame price pressures within China. Further disruptions to Chinese port activity pose an upside risk.

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