East Asia Economic Outlook
East Asia is set to grow faster than the world economy this year, helped by booming AI-related electronics demand, resilient tourism and firm equity markets. However, China’s property downturn will remain a drag. Rising China-Taiwan tensions and a drawn-out Iran conflict are key downside risks, while stronger Chinese policy support could improve the outlook.
East Asia Inflation
Inflation has spiked in Mongolia, South Korea and Taiwan since February, reflecting higher global energy prices. However, price pressures in China and Hong Kong have stayed fairly stable. Over 2026 as a whole, our panelists forecast inflation to average between 1 and 3% in all countries except Mongolia, where it will be notably higher.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,446 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,362 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,263 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -3.0 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.45 | 3.09 | 2.95 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.3 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |