East Asia Economic Outlook
Our panelists upgraded their 2026 GDP growth forecast over the last month due to improved outlooks for South Korea and Taiwan. East Asia’s GDP growth is expected to outpace the global average this year and next thanks to surging demand for the region’s electronics, plus healthy tourism and stock markets. An escalation in China-Taiwan tensions is a key downside risk.
East Asia Inflation
So far this year, inflation has averaged between 1.0–3.0% in all countries except Mongolia, where it has been notably higher at around 10%. Our Consensus is for this pattern of contained inflation in most of the region and high price pressures in Mongolia to persist in the coming years.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2025.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,447 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,361 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,263 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -3.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 77 | 83 | 90 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |