East Asia Economic Outlook
Our panelists expect regional economic activity to cool next year as export growth eases from the extremely high levels seen in 2026. However, East Asia’s GDP will continue to expand well above the global average. An escalation in China-Taiwan or China-U.S. tensions and a sudden pullback in AI spending are key downside risks.
East Asia Inflation
So far this year, inflation has averaged between 1.0% and 3.0% across the region, with the notable exception of Mongolia, where it has averaged around 10%. Our Consensus forecasts suggest that this divergence will persist in the coming years, with inflation remaining subdued across most of the region while price pressures stay somewhat elevated in Mongolia.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for East Asia from 2010 to 2026.
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 4,374 | 4,504 | 4,154 | 4,253 | 4,448 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | 721 | 793 | 838 | 1,080 | 1,360 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 4,940 | 4,712 | 4,871 | 4,875 | 5,210 |
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 14,215 | 14,205 | 14,228 | 14,630 | 15,265 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 4.8 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 5,095 | 5,297 | 4,992 | 5,332 | 5,808 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 67 | 72 | 78 | 83 | 90 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 9.7 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Private Consumption (ann. var. %) | 11.7 | 1.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 8.0 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.3 | -4.3 | -4.1 | -4.3 | -4.5 |
| Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 3.1 | -3.0 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 1.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 17.3 | 16.1 | 16.1 | 15.3 | 15.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 3.39 | 3.57 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 2.94 |