Imports G&S in USA
USA - Imports Goods and Services
Second estimate confirms economy slowed in Q2
Economic growth in the second quarter was slightly lower than previously reported, according to a second GDP estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The economy expanded 2.0% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted annualized terms (SAAR), which was down a notch from the advance estimate of 2.1% growth and well below the 3.1% expansion logged in Q1. In annual terms, growth was unchanged at 2.3% in Q2, down from 2.7% in Q1.
Overall, the second GDP reading reaffirmed the diverging trends in the economy: While downward revisions to most components emphasized growing weaknesses within the economy, private consumption growth was even more robust than initially expected. Particularly, investment figures fared more poorly than previously reported. The contraction in private fixed investment was slightly sharper than in the first reading (Q2: -1.1% SAAR; previous estimate: -0.8% SAAR; Q1: +3.2% SAAR), while residential investment fell considerably more than projected in the previous estimate. Moreover, the downward revision to inventories increased its drag on growth in the quarter. Weaker state and local government spending than previously estimated brought government expenditure growth down to 4.5% SAAR in Q2 from the 5.0% advance estimate (Q1: +2.9% SAAR). On a brighter note, personal consumption was revised up notably, from 4.3% to 4.7%, highlighting the sustained strength of the American consumer despite protracted trade tensions with China.
Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services fell an even sharper 5.8% (previous estimate: -5.2% SAAR; Q1: +4.1% SAAR), while growth in imports of goods and services was unchanged (Q2: +0.1% SAAR; Q1: -1.5% SAAR).
Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to cool further as trepidation among businesses amid the escalating trade tensions with China dampens investment. That said, resilient household spending should continue supporting the economy. The downward revision to headline GDP could also give the Federal Reserve additional ammunition to lower rates again at its September meeting.
Commenting on the implications of the GDP report for interest rates, Leslie Preston, senior economist at TD Economics, noted:
“In this two-track economy the Federal Reserve is likely to focus more on the investment side when it cuts rates in September. The relentless escalation and détente cycle on trade actions by the White House has damaged business confidence. Taken together with a weaker global economy, the outlook for the U.S. economy has become more fragile. The U.S. consumer is the picture of health for now, but if the weakness in business sentiment infects the consumer the outlook would become more concerning and would require greater monetary easing by the Fed.“
The Federal Reserve expects economic growth of 2.1% in 2019 and 2.0% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 1.7% in 2020.
United States - Imports G&S Data
|Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)||1.5||5.1||5.5||1.9||4.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
United States Facts
|Bond Yield||1.47||-0.43 %||Sep 04|
|Exchange Rate||1.10||0.65 %||Sep 04|
|Stock Market||26,355||0.02 %||Sep 04|
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United States: U.S. Fed cuts rates a second time in September in another insurance move against growing headwinds
September 18, 2019
At its 17–18 September monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to cut its target range for the federal funds rate to 1.75%–2.00%.
September 13, 2019
Nominal retail sales increased 0.4% over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms in August, down from the revised 0.8% rise registered in July (previously reported: +0.7% month-on-month) but exceeding market expectations of softer 0.2% growth.
September 12, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.1% over the prior month in August, down from the 0.3% increase registered in July.
September 6, 2019
The labor market continues to be in good standing midway through the third quarter, however details of the August jobs report shows signs of weakening economic momentum.
United States: ISM manufacturing index falls into contractionary territory for first time in three years
September 3, 2019
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index fell to 49.1 in August from 51.2 in July, the lowest reading since January 2016.