Unemployment in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Unemployment
Employment falls by most in four years in Q3 amid Brexit uncertainty
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8% in July–September from 3.9% in the previous rolling quarter. Employment, however, contracted by 58,000, which, while less than had been expected, marked the largest registered quarterly decline since May 2015, with fewer part-time jobs largely to blame. Moreover, the number of job vacancies continued to decline and nominal wage growth lost steam in July–September, even though wage growth continued to outpace inflation. These figures indicate that political uncertainty is weighing on jobs data, trimming the momentum of a previously robust labor market.
Looking further ahead, the outcome of upcoming elections and how they will shape Brexit will have a key bearing on the evolution of the labor market. Commenting on the uncertain outlook for the labor market ahead, James Smith, an economist at ING, noted:
“The jury is still out on whether this merely reflects a jobs market that is no longer tightening, or whether it is something more serious. Either way, this raises some question marks over wage growth – a key pillar in the Bank of England’s hawkish rationale over recent years.”
Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.1% in 2020 and 4.2% in 2021, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.4% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021.
United Kingdom - Unemployment Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population) | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
United Kingdom Unemployment Chart
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).
United Kingdom Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.76 | -3.04 % | Nov 21 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.29 | -0.35 % | Nov 21 |
| Stock Market | 7,239 | -0.26 % | Nov 21 |
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Economic News
United Kingdom: November services and manufacturing PMIs suggest weak momentum
December 4, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) decreased from 50.0 in October to 49.3 in November, below the threshold that separates expansion from contraction in activity.
United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment remains depressed in November
November 29, 2019
The GfK consumer confidence indicator registered minus 14 in November, matching October’s figure.
United Kingdom: Housing market remains muted in November
November 29, 2019
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom rose 0.5% month-on-month in November, up from October’s 0.2% increase.
United Kingdom: Inflation falls further below target in October
November 13, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.2% in October compared to the prior month, contrasting September’s 0.1% increase.
United Kingdom: Employment falls by most in four years in Q3 amid Brexit uncertainty
November 12, 2019
The unemployment rate edged down to 3.8% in July–September from 3.9% in the previous rolling quarter.
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