Unemployment in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Unemployment
Wage growth highest since 2008; unemployment rate remains low
In the August-October period the unemployment rate remained at a near multi-decade low of 4.1%. Employment rose by 79,000 compared to May-July, on the back of more full-time positions offsetting a fall in part-time positions, a pattern which has been common in recent months. Employment growth was notably stronger than markets had expected following several months of soft employment readings, and comes despite heightened Brexit uncertainty. The employment rate was the joint-highest since comparable records began in 1971.
As a result of the tight labor market and associated worker shortages, wage pressures intensified further in August-October, with nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses hitting 3.3%—the highest rate since 2008—thanks to faster private-sector pay growth.
Looking ahead, wages should continue to be supported by hiring difficulties, the high vacancy rate and more generous public-sector pay agreements. On the employment side, despite the positive figure in August-October, job growth could be subdued in the coming months as the UK edges closer to leaving the EU without an agreement.
Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.2% in 2019 and 4.3% in 2020, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.5% in both 2019 and 2020.
United Kingdom - Unemployment Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
United Kingdom Unemployment Chart
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).
United Kingdom Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 1.31 | -3.04 % | Jan 16 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.29 | -0.35 % | Jan 16 |
| Stock Market | 6,863 | -0.26 % | Jan 16 |
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Economic News
United Kingdom: Inflation dips in December
January 16, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.2% in December over the previous month, matching November’s figure.
United Kingdom: Industrial production contracts for third straight month in November
January 11, 2019
Industrial production decreased 0.4% in November over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, down from October’s revised 0.5% fall (previously reported: -0.6% month-on-month).
United Kingdom: The economy loses momentum in the three months to November
January 11, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity rose 0.2% in November over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, up from October’s 0.1% increase.
United Kingdom: Services growth limp in December, manufacturers increase stocks as Brexit uncertainty rises
January 4, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) ticked up slightly from 50.4 in November to 51.2 in December, overshooting analysts’ expectations.
United Kingdom: Housing market wanes in December
January 4, 2019
According to the Nationwide Building Society (NBS), house prices in the United Kingdom decreased 0.7% in December compared to the previous month in seasonally adjusted terms, contrasting November’s 0.4% uptick.
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