Unemployment in United Kingdom

United Kingdom Unemployment | Economic News & Forecasts

United Kingdom - Unemployment

Labor market remains strong in February-April period

In the February-April period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record. Moreover, nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses picked up to 3.4% from 3.3% in the prior rolling quarter, on stronger public-sector pay growth. These indicators signal that the labor market remains in good health. That said, employment growth ebbed, while the number of salaried workers declined and job vacancies continued to dip, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.

Looking ahead, nominal wage growth should continue to comfortably outpace inflation. In its May Inflation Report, the Bank of England penciled in 3% growth in total pay for 2019. Our panelists see unemployment ticking up slightly from its current level, but staying low by historical standards. These robust labor market dynamics should support private consumption.

Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.1% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.9% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 25 June.

United Kingdom - Unemployment Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Unemployment (% of active population)7.6  6.2  5.4  4.9  4.4  

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United Kingdom Unemployment Chart

United Kingdom Unemployment
Note: Unemployment in % of active population.
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).

United Kingdom Facts

Bond Yield0.84-3.04 %Jun 13
Exchange Rate1.27-0.35 %Jun 13
Stock Market7,369-0.26 %Jun 13

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