Unemployment in United Kingdom
United Kingdom - Unemployment
Labor market remains strong in February-April period
In the February-April period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record. Moreover, nominal earnings growth excluding bonuses picked up to 3.4% from 3.3% in the prior rolling quarter, on stronger public-sector pay growth. These indicators signal that the labor market remains in good health. That said, employment growth ebbed, while the number of salaried workers declined and job vacancies continued to dip, hinting at a possible loss of momentum.
Looking ahead, nominal wage growth should continue to comfortably outpace inflation. In its May Inflation Report, the Bank of England penciled in 3% growth in total pay for 2019. Our panelists see unemployment ticking up slightly from its current level, but staying low by historical standards. These robust labor market dynamics should support private consumption.
Our panelists currently see the unemployment rate averaging 4.1% in 2019 and 4.2% in 2020, while real disposable income is seen increasing 1.9% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. A new Consensus Forecast will be published on 25 June.
United Kingdom - Unemployment Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment (% of active population) | 7.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 |
United Kingdom Unemployment Chart
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS).
United Kingdom Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 0.84 | -3.04 % | Jun 13 |
| Exchange Rate | 1.27 | -0.35 % | Jun 13 |
| Stock Market | 7,369 | -0.26 % | Jun 13 |
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Economic News
United Kingdom: Labor market remains strong in February-April period
June 11, 2019
In the February-April period, the unemployment rate remained at a multi-decade low of 3.8%, while the employment rate was the joint-highest on record.
United Kingdom: Industrial production plunges in April on temporary factors
June 10, 2019
Industrial production fell 2.7% in April over the prior month according to the Office for National Statistics, contrasting March’s 0.7% increase.
United Kingdom: The economy contracts sharply in April amid plunging car production
June 10, 2019
According to monthly GDP data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), economic activity fell 0.4% in April over the prior month in seasonally-adjusted terms, down from March’s 0.1% contraction.
United Kingdom: The services PMI improves in May while the manufacturing PMI slumps
June 5, 2019
The IHS Markit/CIPS UK services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in May from 50.4 in April.
United Kingdom: Consumer sentiment brightens in May
May 31, 2019
The GfK consumer confidence indicator registered minus 10 points in May, up from April’s minus 13.
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