Investment in Philippines
Philippines - Investment
GDP growth accelerates in the third quarter, defies inflation and rate hikes
GDP growth gained marginal momentum and reached 7.6% year on year in the third quarter, from 7.5% in the second quarter, according to a preliminary reading. Robust private spending outweighed weaker growth in government and fixed investment.
Domestically, household spending growth remained resilient in the quarter, despite easing to 8.0% yoy in Q3 from Q2’s 8.6%. Favorable labor market dynamics (unemployment rate Q3: 5.2%; Q2: 5.7%), pent-up savings and remittances shielded consumers from elevated prices and higher interest rates throughout the quarter. In addition, fixed investment growth largely maintained momentum despite tighter financial conditions and a weakening currency, coming in at 10.1% in Q3, from the 13.6% logged in the prior quarter. In contrast, public spending growth was the slowest since Q1 2021, falling sharply to 0.8% (Q2: +11.1% yoy).
The external sector continued to weigh on the overall reading, with imports growth still outpacing the expansion of exports. Goods and services exports growth hit an over one-year high of 13.1% in the third quarter, picking up from the second quarter's 4.4%. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 17.3% in Q3 (Q2: +13.8% yoy), marking the best performance in one year. Consequently, the external sector detracted 2.8 percentage points from the overall reading, an improvement from the 4.0 percentage point detraction in Q2.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic activity rebounded, increasing 2.9% in Q3, contrasting the previous period's 0.1% fall. Q3's reading marked the best result since Q4 2021.
On the outlook, ING’s senior economist Nicholas Mapa commented:
“[…] 2023 growth could be challenged should current headwinds persist. Meanwhile, the much lower savings rate reported by households suggests that although spending may remain robust in the near term, a sustained drawdown on savings could expose households to shocks at a time when borrowing costs have risen significantly.”
Our panelists project GDP to increase 5.5% in 2023, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2024, they forecast economic growth of 6.1%.
Philippines - Investment Data
|Investment (annual variation in %)||13.8||20.9||10.6||12.9||3.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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November 10, 2022
GDP growth gained marginal momentum and reached 7.6% year on year in the third quarter, from 7.5% in the second quarter, according to a preliminary reading.
November 4, 2022
Inflation rose to 7.7% in October, following September’s 6.9%.
November 4, 2022
Merchandise exports increased 7.0% year-on-year in September (August: -2.0% year-on-year).
November 2, 2022
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 52.6 in October, marginally down from September's 52.9.
October 11, 2022
Merchandise exports decreased 2.0% on an annual basis in August, following July’s 4.1% decrease.