Consumption in Philippines
Philippines - Consumption
GDP growth improves in Q1, yet again surprising to the upside
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth improved to 8.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, from 7.8% in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading marked the best reading since Q2 2021 and brought the economy above its pre-pandemic level. The reading beat market expectations.
A surge of Omicron cases early in the quarter wasn’t enough to dampen spending, with private consumption increasing 10.1% in the first quarter, which was above the fourth quarter's 7.5% expansion. The relaxation of Covid-19 restrictions after the initial Covid-19 wave supported consumer demand. In addition, fixed investment growth edged up to 11.0% in Q1, compared to the 10.8% expansion logged in the prior quarter. Public consumption growth, meanwhile, grew at the slowest pace since Q4 2021, expanding 3.6% (Q4 2021: +7.8% yoy).
On the external front, exports of goods and services growth accelerated to 10.3% year-on-year in the first quarter, which marked the best reading since Q2 2021 (Q4 2021: +7.7% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 15.6% in Q1 (Q4 2021: +14.3% yoy), marking the highest reading since Q2 2021.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed notably to 1.9% in Q1, following the previous quarter's 3.5% growth. Q1's reading marked the worst reading since Q2 2021.
Looking ahead, our panelists expect growth to maintain momentum in Q2. The reopening of the economy following the easing of Covid-19 cases will boost private consumption. That said, high inflation and the pre-election spending ban pose negative risks to the outlook.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP to increase 6.5% in 2022, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate. For 2023, they forecast economic growth of 6.2%.
Philippines - Consumption Data
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.4||7.2||6.0||5.8||5.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Source: National Statistical Coordination Board.
|Bond Yield||4.44||-4.11 %||Dec 27|
|Exchange Rate||50.66||0.02 %||Jan 01|
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