GDP in Peru
Peru - GDP
Growth sinks to four-and-a-half-year low in Q2
Economic growth halved to 1.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, from a revised 2.4% expansion in the first quarter (previously reported: +2.3% year-on-year), marking the slowest expansion since Q4 2014. According to the data released by the Central Bank on 22 August, faltering external demand drove the slowdown.
Despite the weaker expansion, domestic activity accelerated in the second quarter. Notably, fixed investment growth sped up to 5.3% year-on-year (Q1: +1.1% yoy), amid upbeat mining investment, while government spending rebounded by 1.7%, after falling 2.7% in the first quarter. Less encouraging, however, household spending lost stride in the second quarter (Q2: +2.5% yoy; Q1: +3.2% yoy), despite a fall in unemployment.
The external sector subtracted 0.8 percentage points from growth in Q2, following the revised 0.8 percentage-points contribution made in Q1 (previously reported: +0.6 percentage points). Exports contracted 2.9% in Q2 (Q1: +2.6% yoy), while imports rebounded by 0.2% (Q1: -0.4% yoy).
Growth should pick up in the second half of 2019, following a weak H1. That said, 2019 as a whole will mark a significant cooling in growth, due to feebler fixed investment, especially in public infrastructure, and amid a sharp slowdown in merchandise exports. Lingering political uncertainties at home and persistent global trade tensions cloud the outlook.
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP expanding 3.8% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.7% in 2020.
Peru - GDP Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 5.8 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 |
Peru GDP Chart
Source: Peru Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
Peru Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 5.43 | -0.60 % | Oct 15 |
| Exchange Rate | 3.38 | -0.06 % | Sep 04 |
| Stock Market | 19,242 | -0.23 % | Sep 04 |
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Economic News
Peru: Inflation stable in October
November 8, 2019
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima rose 0.11% over the previous month in October, following September’s 0.01% month-on-month uptick.
Peru: Business confidence unchanged in October
November 7, 2019
The business confidence indicator was stable at September’s 47.0 points in October.
Peru: Trade surplus widens in September as contraction in exports eases
November 7, 2019
Peru’s trade balance recorded a USD 462 million surplus in September, larger than August’s USD 139 million surplus but smaller than the USD 514 million surplus recorded in the same month last year. Exports declined 1.4% year-on-year in September (August: -7.4% year-on-year), weighed down by diving foreign sales of fishing products and of oil and natural gas, only partially offset by higher exports of agricultural products.
Peru: Weak economic prospects prompt the Central Bank to cut rates to a nine-year low in November
November 7, 2019
At its monetary policy meeting on 7 November, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut the policy interest rate by 25 percentage points to 2.25%, the lowest since July 2012.
Peru: Inflation stable in October
November 5, 2019
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima rose 0.11% over the previous month in October, following September’s 0.01% month-on-month uptick.
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