GDP in Peru
Peru - GDP
Activity drops at a more moderate rate in the third quarter
GDP dropped at a softer pace of 9.4% year-on-year in the third quarter, above the 29.8% contraction recorded in the second quarter, as a phased easing of restrictions supported activity in the period.
The upturn reflected a broad-based improvement in private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports. Private consumption fell at a milder rate of 9.7% year-on-year in Q3 (Q2: -22.1% yoy), as the easing of social isolation measures bolstered household spending, despite the continued deterioration in labor market conditions. Fixed investment fell at a more moderate rate of 10.3% in Q3, compared to the 62.2% plunge logged in the previous quarter. Meanwhile, public consumption bounced back in the quarter, growing 4.3% (Q2: -8.8% yoy) as significant fiscal stimulus provided earlier in the year fed through to the wider economy.
On the external front, exports of goods and services fell 23.2% on an annual basis in the third quarter, which was above the second quarter's 41.6% tumble. In addition, imports of goods and services slid at a slower rate of 21.0% in Q3 (Q2: -30.4% yoy).
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth bounced back with GDP jumping 30.1% in Q3, contrasting the previous quarter's 26.2% fall.
Despite the improvement in activity, Paulo Mateus, senior economist at Goldman Sachs, preached caution:
“Sequential growth slowed further in September and real GDP remains well below pre-Covid levels, suggesting that recovery towards pre-Covid levels will take place over an extended period (we expect full recovery only in 2022). The recent political turmoil, with President Vizcarra’s impeachment on November 9 followed by the resignation of President Merino on November 15, may further slow the recovery.”
FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 9.3% in 2021, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2022.
Peru - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.3||4.1||2.5||4.0||2.2|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Peru GDP Chart
Source: Peru Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||0.0||-0.60 %||Nov 08|
|Exchange Rate||3.31||-0.06 %||Jan 01|
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January 14, 2021
At its first meeting of the year on 14 January, the Central Bank of Peru maintained its key policy interest rate at the record low of 0.25% for the ninth meeting in a row.
January 14, 2021
Economic activity dropped 2.8% year-on-year in November (October: -3.8% yoy).
January 7, 2021
Business confidence dropped to 49.5 in December, down from November’s 52.8 and ending a run of seven consecutive months of improving sentiment.
January 7, 2021
Merchandise exports edged up 2.4% in annual terms in November (October: +9.9% year-on-year) marking the third consecutive month of growth.
January 4, 2021
Consumer prices in Metropolitan Lima increased 0.05% in December over the previous month, softening from November's 0.52% rise.