GDP in Norway
Norway - GDP
Strong mainland economy supports growth in Q4
The economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.6% in the third quarter and hampered by the large fall in oil prices observed in the period. The mainland economy—which excludes petroleum activities and related ocean transport—expanded 0.9% in Q4, which was above market analysts’ expectations of 0.8% growth and up from the revised 0.4% increase in Q3 (previously reported: +0.6% quarter-on-quarter). The economy grew 1.7% year-on-year in Q4, up from Q3’s 1.2% increase.
In quarter-on-quarter terms, private consumption rose a seasonally-adjusted 0.4% in Q4, supported by stronger consumption of services and rebounding from Q3’s 0.1% contraction. Government consumption edged up 0.1%, matching Q3’s figure, while fixed investment declined 0.8% qoq, contrasting the third quarter’s 1.4% expansion. The fall in fixed investment was attributable to lower investment in the mainland economy, as investment in the oil sector surged.
Exports fell 1.9% in Q4 from the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms (Q3: +0.7% qoq) on lower exports of services and hydrocarbons. Imports, meanwhile, were down 1.0% (Q3: -0.4% qoq). As a result, the external sector subtracted 0.3 percentage points from growth in the fourth quarter, contrasting the positive 0.4 percentage-point contribution in Q3.
Economic prospects for this year are fairly bright, with the economy set to benefit from healthy investment in the oil sector. Moreover, a tight labor market and a likely fall in inflation should boost real wages and private consumption.
Norway GDP Forecast
The Central Bank expects total GDP to increase 2.0% in 2019 and 1.8% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see total GDP expanding 2.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For 2020, our panelists expect growth of 1.9%. In terms of mainland GDP, the Central Bank predicts growth of 2.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see mainland GDP increasing 2.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 1.9% in 2020.
Norway - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.0||2.0||2.0||1.1||1.9|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Norway GDP Chart
Source: Statistics Norway and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||1.63||-0.65 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||8.65||-0.38 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||853||-0.08 %||Feb 14|
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February 11, 2019
Consumer prices fell 0.5% in January compared to the previous month, contrasting the steady reading in December.
February 8, 2019
The economy grew a seasonally-adjusted 0.5% in the fourth quarter, down from 0.6% in the third quarter and hampered by the large fall in oil prices observed in the period.
February 7, 2019
According to Statistics Norway, industrial production fell a seasonally-adjusted 1.0% in December compared to the previous month, less than the 1.5% contraction in November.
January 24, 2019
In line with market analysts’ expectations, Norges Bank announced on 24 January that it was keeping the sight deposit rate unchanged at 0.75% amid high but controlled inflation and robust economic activity.
January 10, 2019
Consumer prices were unchanged in December compared to the previous month, contrasting the 0.5% rise in November.