GDP in Mexico
Mexico - GDP
Mexico’s economy cools through year-end
A preliminary estimate for economic growth in the fourth quarter fell shy of analysts’ expectations and confirmed a year-end slowdown on the heels of two upbeat quarters. By most measures, the fourth-quarter reading was downbeat. In annual terms, unadjusted output grew at 1.8%—down from the third quarter’s 2.5% outturn and a couple of notches below analysts’ expectations. Meanwhile, seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter figures cooled considerably (Q3: +0.3% quarter-on-quarter s.a.; Q2: +0.8% qoq s.a.) amid a slump in industrial-sector output.
Unadjusted annual figures revealed a disappointing outturn for the industrial sector, which contracted 0.7% year-on-year (Q2: +1.1% year-on-year) on slumping construction activity, as well as free-falling mining output. All-important manufacturing gains were tepid in the quarter, still underpinned by a strong stateside economy. Services-sector activity, meanwhile, decelerated but remained fairly robust (Q3: +2.9% yoy; Q2: +3.2% yoy). Low inflation and solid labor-market gains appeared to help, although it was likely negatively impacted by the late-year political turmoil that upended economic sentiment. On the other hand, agricultural-sector activity jumped in the quarter (Q3: +2.8% yoy; Q2: +2.2% yoy).
Overall, the estimate highlighted risks for the economy heading into the new year. On the upside, household spending is expected to remain upbeat thanks to the continued expansion of credit. Conversely, downside risks continue to mount for the industrial sector as a shakier global economy and the threat of continued policy uncertainty bruise fixed investment.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 2.0% in 2019, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.1% in 2020.
Mexico - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.4||2.8||3.3||2.9||2.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Mexico GDP Chart
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||8.42||-0.24 %||Feb 14|
|Exchange Rate||19.26||-0.29 %||Feb 14|
|Stock Market||42,725||0.12 %||Feb 14|
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February 7, 2019
Consumer prices rose 0.09% from a month earlier in January, cooling from the 0.70% month-on-month increase in December.
February 7, 2019
At its 7 February monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s governing board unanimously voted to leave the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at its decade-high 8.25%.
February 6, 2019
Consumer confidence rose in January, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) hitting a new multi-year high of 112.0 points, up from December’s upwardly revised 106.6 points.
February 4, 2019
In line with a modest recovery, the manufacturing sector appeared to stagnate at the outset of the year.
February 1, 2019
Remittances totaled USD 2.9 billion in December (November: USD 2.9 billion), a 6.0% increase from the same month a year earlier (November: +20.2% year-on-year).