GDP in Mexico

Mexico GDP | Economic News & Forecasts

Mexico - GDP

Uncertainty chips away at domestic demand and overall growth in Q1

Expenditure-based national accounts released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 21 June confirmed tepid first-quarter growth. Output grew 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, down markedly from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, owing to lackluster consumption gains and blunted export growth.

Household spending slowed to 1.1% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +1.4% year-on-year) amid higher unemployment and fuel shortages, as well as on a series of one-offs. Government spending fell 0.8% (Q4 2018: +0.3% yoy) in light of the so-called political business cycle; public-sector outlays tend to dry up whenever a new government takes the reins. Fixed investment, meanwhile, appeared unable to shake off Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s nascent presidency and Mexico’s uneasy trading relationship with the United States (Q1: -0.9% yoy; Q4 2018: -2.2% yoy).

Foreign trade, meanwhile, was hit by the downturn in manufacturing. Export growth almost halved to 2.0% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +3.9% yoy) on ebbing demand north of the Rio Grande. By the same token, import growth plunged (Q1: +1.7% yoy; Q4 2018: +5.6% yoy). Taken together, net exports contributed marginally to growth in the first quarter—contrasting the fourth quarter of last year.

LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 1.8% in 2020.

Mexico - GDP Data

2013  2014  2015  2016  2017  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)1.4  2.8  3.3  2.9  2.0  

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Mexico GDP Chart

Mexico GDP
Note: Annual variation of gross domestic product (GDP) in %.
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.

Mexico Facts

Bond Yield7.63-0.24 %Jun 20
Exchange Rate19.00-0.29 %Jun 20
Stock Market43,6450.12 %Jun 20

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