Economic Growth in Mexico
Mexico's GDP growth over the last decade was moderate by emerging market standards, constrained by structural challenges and policy uncertainties. The economy benefited from its proximity to the United States but faced headwinds from a lack of structural reforms and an ambivalent stance towards the private sector under President Obrador. Post-pandemic the economy has benefitted from a recovery in tourism, strong remittances and exports, and state investment in large infrastructure projects such as the Maya Train and a new airport.
In the year 2024, the economic growth in Mexico was 1.45%, compared to 2.50% in 2014 and 3.35% in 2023. It averaged 1.51% over the last decade. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Mexico GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Mexico from 2024 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Mexico GDP Data
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -8.4 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
GDP (USD bn) | 1,121 | 1,316 | 1,467 | 1,800 | 1,855 |
GDP (MXN bn) | 24,087 | 26,690 | 29,526 | 31,936 | 33,981 |
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.1 | 10.8 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 6.4 |
Economy records sharpest contraction since Q3 2021 in the fourth quarter
GDP reading: According to a preliminary reading, GDP dropped 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the final quarter of 2024, contrasting the 1.1% expansion recorded in the third quarter and marking the worst result since Q3 2021. The contraction was three times as steep as markets were expecting. On an annual basis, economic growth slowed markedly to 0.6% in Q4 from the previous period's 1.6% expansion, also below market expectations.
Broad-based downturn: The services sector grew 0.2% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in Q4, decelerating from the third quarter's 1.1% increase. In addition, the industrial sector fell 1.2% in Q4 (Q3: +0.9% s.a. qoq). This was partly due to the completion of some flagship public infrastructure projects weighing on construction activity, as well as hurricanes and strikes in the U.S. hitting manufacturing. The primary sector contracted 8.9% in Q4, marking the worst result since Q2 1999 (Q3: +4.9% s.a. qoq).
GDP outlook: Our panelists expect the economy to return to growth in Q1, though the expansion will be muted by historical standards.
Panelist insight: BBVA analysts said: “We anticipate the weakness of economic activity will extend throughout 2025, in a context of high uncertainty for investment, with the implementation of the recently approved judicial reform and potential tariffs on Mexican imports in the US.” Credicorp Capital analysts said: “We reduce our GDP growth estimate for 2025 from 1.2% to 0.9%. We expect a steeper adjustment in total investment, reflecting the dilution of election-related effects, nearshoring investment delays, and monetary policy tightening.”
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Mexican GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 54 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Mexican GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Mexican GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Mexican GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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