GDP in Mexico
Mexico - GDP
Economic activity records best result since Q2 2021 in Q1
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP rose 0.9% on a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in the first quarter, above the flat reading seen in the fourth quarter of last year. Q1's reading was the best since Q2 2021.
The services sector grew 1.1% over the previous quarter in seasonally-adjusted terms in the first quarter, contrasting the fourth quarter's 0.6% decrease and marking the best reading since Q1 2021. Services momentum was likely aided by the fading impact of last year’s labor outsourcing ban. In addition, the industrial sector gained steam, growing 1.1% in Q1 (Q4: +0.4% s.a. qoq) amid a notable rebound in vehicle production in the quarter and higher goods exports. The primary sector contracted 1.9% in Q1, marking the worst reading since Q4 2020 (Q4 2021: +0.2% s.a. qoq).
On an annual basis, economic growth sped up to 1.6% in Q1, from the previous quarter's 1.1% expansion.
Our panelists see a moderate slowdown in quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2 on the back of tighter financial conditions and a likely slowdown in consumption and import growth in the U.S., Mexico’s key trading partner. That said, the normalization of contact-intensive services activity as the pandemic dissipates should provide support. On the longer-term outlook, analysts at the EIU are downbeat:
“It will take until 2023 for Mexico's economy to return to pre-pandemic levels—an extremely poor performance by regional standards. [...] We expect the dearth of fiscal support for consumers and businesses in 2020–2021 to leave lasting scars in the form of permanent business closures and a deterioration in the quality of the job market. We do not believe that the slightly expansionary fiscal policy planned for this year will boost growth significantly.”
The LatinFocus panel projects the economy to grow 2.0% in 2022, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2023, the panel sees GDP growth at 2.2%.
Mexico - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||3.3||2.6||2.1||2.2||-0.3|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Mexico GDP Chart
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||6.87||-0.24 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||18.93||-0.29 %||Jan 01|
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June 8, 2022
Consumer prices increased 0.18% in May over the previous month, which was below April's 0.54% increase.
June 2, 2022
Consumer confidence was unchanged at 44.2 in May.
June 1, 2022
Remittances totaled USD 4.7 billion in April, representing a 16.5% year-on-year jump, on the heels of March's 12.9% year-on-year increase. On a cumulative 12-month basis up to April, remittances summed USD 54.2 billion, down from the USD 53.0 billion registered in March.
June 1, 2022
The Mexican Institute of Financial Executives (IMEF) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.8 in May, down from April's 52.4.
May 25, 2022
Merchandise exports shot up 16.0% in annual terms in April (March: +20.6% year-on-year).