GDP in Mexico
Mexico - GDP
Expenditure-based national accounts confirm Q4 slowdown
Expenditure-based national accounts data released on 21 March by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) confirmed a weak end to 2018 for the Mexican economy. In annual terms, GDP grew 1.7% in the fourth quarter, notably below the third quarter’s 2.5% increase, hampered especially by a lackluster domestic economy. In 2018, growth came in at 2.0%, a notch below 2017’s 2.1% outturn.
The fourth quarter’s slowdown was broad-based across the economy with both domestic demand and the external sector weakening. Fixed investment nosedived 2.3% over the same period of 2017 in Q4, notably contrasting Q3’s modest 0.4% growth. Policy uncertainty in the run-up to the new administration taking office, along with continued concerns over global trade and the relationship with the U.S., likely spooked investment. Meanwhile, private consumption growth dropped from 2.2% in Q3 to 1.4% in Q4, the worst reading since Q1 2013, despite high remittances inflows. Government spending also slowed from a 1.0% increase in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4.
On the external front, export growth halved although still posted decent growth. Exports grew 4.3% in Q4, down from Q3’s 8.6% and in line with softer stateside metrics. Import growth also decelerated, weighed on by a lackluster domestic economy and a weak peso (Q4: +5.6% yoy; Q3: +6.4% yoy). Taken together, the external sector swung from contributing to growth in Q3 to subtracting from growth in Q4.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 1.8% in 2019, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.
Mexico - GDP Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 1.4 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.0 |
Mexico GDP Chart
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.
Mexico Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bond Yield | 8.55 | -0.24 % | Jan 30 |
| Exchange Rate | 19.13 | -0.29 % | Jan 30 |
| Stock Market | 43,621 | 0.12 % | Jan 30 |
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Economic News
Mexico: Consumer confidence eases from all-time high in March
April 4, 2019
Consumer confidence eased in March, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the National Statistics Institute (INEGI) coming in at 116.3 points, down from February’s all-time high of 120.0 points.
Mexico: Manufacturing sector weakens in March
April 2, 2019
The manufacturing sector appears to have lost steam at the end of Q1.
Mexico: Remittances broadly unchanged in February
April 1, 2019
Remittances totaled USD 2.4 billion in February, a 6.4% increase from the USD 2.3 billion inflows recorded in February 2018.
Mexico: Banxico holds rates in March
March 28, 2019
At its 28 March monetary policy meeting, Banxico’s governing board unanimously voted to leave the target for the overnight interbank interest rate at 8.25%, matching market analysts’ expectations.
Mexico: Trade surplus hides downbeat manufacturing in February
March 27, 2019
Merchandise trade recorded a sizable USD 1.2 billion surplus in February, up from the USD 0.9 billion windfall registered in the same month a year ago and in line with analysts’ expectations.
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