GDP in Mexico
Mexico - GDP
Uncertainty chips away at domestic demand and overall growth in Q1
Expenditure-based national accounts released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 21 June confirmed tepid first-quarter growth. Output grew 1.2% year-on-year in the first quarter, down markedly from 1.7% in the fourth quarter of last year, owing to lackluster consumption gains and blunted export growth.
Household spending slowed to 1.1% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +1.4% year-on-year) amid higher unemployment and fuel shortages, as well as on a series of one-offs. Government spending fell 0.8% (Q4 2018: +0.3% yoy) in light of the so-called political business cycle; public-sector outlays tend to dry up whenever a new government takes the reins. Fixed investment, meanwhile, appeared unable to shake off Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s nascent presidency and Mexico’s uneasy trading relationship with the United States (Q1: -0.9% yoy; Q4 2018: -2.2% yoy).
Foreign trade, meanwhile, was hit by the downturn in manufacturing. Export growth almost halved to 2.0% year-on-year (Q4 2018: +3.9% yoy) on ebbing demand north of the Rio Grande. By the same token, import growth plunged (Q1: +1.7% yoy; Q4 2018: +5.6% yoy). Taken together, net exports contributed marginally to growth in the first quarter—contrasting the fourth quarter of last year.
LatinFocus Consensus Forecast panelists see growth at 1.5% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and at 1.8% in 2020.
Mexico - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||1.4||2.8||3.3||2.9||2.0|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Mexico GDP Chart
Source: Mexico National Statistical Institute (INEGI) and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||7.63||-0.24 %||Jun 20|
|Exchange Rate||19.00||-0.29 %||Jun 20|
|Stock Market||43,645||0.12 %||Jun 20|
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June 21, 2019
Expenditure-based national accounts released by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) on 21 June confirmed tepid first-quarter growth.
June 10, 2019
Mexico and the United States reached a tenuous agreement on 7 June to avoid crippling U.S.-imposed tariffs on all Mexican imports that had been set to take effect only days later.
June 7, 2019
Consumer prices declined 0.29% from a month earlier in May, contrasting the 0.05% month-on-month increase in April.
June 4, 2019
Consumer confidence fell again in May, with the seasonally-adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Statistical Institute (INEGI) coming in at 110.0 points, down from 112.8 points in April.
June 3, 2019
Economic activity remained lackluster in March.