GDP in Chile
Chile - GDP
Economy performs strongly in Q2 despite fresh restrictions
GDP growth improved to 18.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, from 0.5% in the first quarter. The reading reflected in large part a favorable base effect, but was also the result of government stimulus measures, pension drawdowns, and the greater immunity of firms and households to the renewed lockdown measures that were imposed to curtail surging Covid-19 cases.
The upturn reflected a broad-based improvement in private consumption, public spending and fixed investment. Household spending increased 33.7% in the second quarter, which was above the first quarter's 5.2% expansion. Public consumption grew 20.7% (Q1: +3.3% yoy). Fixed investment growth improved to 24.8% in Q2, from the 1.1% expansion logged in the prior quarter.
Exports of goods and services contracted at a milder pace of 3.0% in Q2 (Q1: -5.4% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth picked up, to 39.6% in Q2 (Q1: +17.2% yoy).
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth slowed notably to 1.0% in Q2, compared to the previous period's 3.4% increase. Q2's reading was the worst since Q2 2020.
Turning to Q3, year-on-year growth will slow as the base effect grows less favorable, although underlying momentum will improve, spurred by the easing of restrictions since July as Covid-19 cases have plummeted.
On the reading and outlook, Alejandro Fernández Beroš, head of research at Gemines, said:
“The results of national accounts for the second quarter were a positive surprise since the estimated growth was higher than anticipated by the IMACEC and, in addition, the first quarter was revised upwards. Private consumption is largely responsible for these results. For the rest of the year we expect a very good third quarter due to the elimination of restrictions on mobility and the maintenance of income subsidies for families.”
FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 7.7% in 2021, which is up 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2022, GDP is seen expanding 3.1%.
Chile - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.3||1.7||1.2||3.9||1.1|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Chile GDP Chart
Source: Chile Central Bank and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||3.14||-0.44 %||Dec 30|
|Exchange Rate||752.0||0.05 %||Jan 01|
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October 13, 2021
At its 13 October meeting, the board of the Central Bank of Chile decided to hike the monetary policy rate by 125 basis points to 2.75%, a larger increase than markets were anticipating.
October 11, 2021
Consumer confidence came in at 92.3 in September, up notably from August's 81.6.
October 8, 2021
Consumer prices rose 1.18% in September over the previous month, picking up from August's 0.36% rise.
October 4, 2021
Business confidence rose to 60.7 in September from August's 60.4.
October 4, 2021
The consumer confidence index, produced by the Universidad del Desarrollo, dropped to 81.6 points in August from 87.5 points in July, which had marked the strongest result since September 2019.