Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Canada
Over the last decade, Canada's economy benefited from brisk population growth, close ties to a robust U.S. economy, strong natural resource sectors and improved trade ties with Asian and European economies thanks to participation in new free trade deals. GDP growth frequently clocked over 2% per year, above the G7 average. Following a contraction in 2020, the post-pandemic recovery was supported by fiscal stimulus, rapid population growth and rebounding global demand. However, GDP growth in 2023 and 2024 was below trend, weighed on by a lack of productivity growth and despite the large increase in the size of the labor force.
The Canadian economy recorded an average growth rate of 1.8% in the decade to 2022, in line with the 1.8% average for Major Economies. In 2022, the real GDP growth was 3.4%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Canada GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Canada from 2024 to 2020.
Source: Macrobond.
Canada GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | -5.0 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,656 | 2,022 | 2,190 | 2,174 | 2,241 |
| GDP (CAD bn) | 2,221 | 2,536 | 2,851 | 2,934 | 3,069 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | -4.0 | 14.2 | 12.4 | 2.9 | 4.6 |
Economic activity drops in February
GDP reading: GDP slid 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January's 0.4% increase. February's figure was below market expectations. Goods-producing industries led February's overall decline, driven by weakness in mining, oil and gas extraction plus construction, while service industries dipped slightly due to contractions in transportation and real estate. On an annual basis, monthly GDP grew 1.6% in February, which was below January’s 2.3% expansion and marked the worst result since May 2024.
GDP outlook: A flash estimate put GDP growth at 0.1% in March, taking Q1’s expansion to around 1.5% in quarter-on-quarter annualized terms. That said, economic momentum should deteriorate in Q2 due to U.S. tariffs.
Panelist insight: Desjardins’ LJ Valencia said: “February 2025’s decline in real GDP by industry was primarily attributed to weather-induced weakness in goods-producing sectors. […] Under the hood, there are signs the economy is responding adversely to escalating trade tensions with the US. Consequently, we’re projecting a mild recession in 2025, possibly starting as early as Q2.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Canadian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 43 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Canadian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Canadian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Canadian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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Canada: Economic activity drops in February GDP reading: GDP slid 0.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in February, which contrasted January’s 0.4% increase. February’s figure was...