Underlying picture less positive than headline reading: GDP growth improved to 0.7% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis...
Economic Growth in Brazil
Brazil's GDP growth over the last decade was characterized by economic turbulence and modest recoveries. The country entered a severe recession in 2015-2016, driven by political instability and declining commodity prices. Subsequent years saw gradual recovery, although growth remained sluggish. The COVID-19 pandemic brought another downturn in 2020, but the economy showed resilience in the following years, partly due to strong commodity exports and fiscal stimulus. However, a lack of structural reforms and a sclerotic public sector continue to hold back economic potential.
The Brazilian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, Brazil's real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil GDP Data
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | -3.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 3.4 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,477 | 1,670 | 1,952 | 2,191 | 2,180 |
| GDP (BRL bn) | 7,610 | 9,012 | 10,080 | 10,943 | 11,745 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 3.0 | 18.4 | 11.8 | 8.6 | 7.3 |
Central Bank’s tightening cycle will cool economy further: Our Consensus is for GDP growth to be accelerating in sequential terms in Q1 2025; our panelists then see it easing slightly in Q2 2025 before stabilizing through Q4 2025. Overall in 2025, the economy is seen growing at the slowest pace since the 2020 pandemic-induced downturn. Higher inflation and interest rates, coupled with softer wage growth, will hold back growth of private consumption and fixed investment. Extreme weather events are a downside risk to the outlook, while the government’s fiscal policy and its impact on inflation, investor sentiment and the currency is a key factor to monitor.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 54 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Brazilian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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