Consumption in Belarus
Belarus - Consumption
Growth slumps to three-year low in 2019
According to the first national accounts estimate released by Belarus’ Statistical Institute (Belstat), annual growth sunk to 1.2% in 2019 (2018: +3.1% year-on-year), marking the softest expansion since 2016. The annual reading suggested that growth picked up slightly in Q4 2019 compared to the previous quarter, although quarterly data has not yet been released by Belstat.
The annual downturn was largely broad-based, according to the Belstat release. The all-important manufacturing sector led the downturn, with deteriorations across the wholesale and retail trade, construction, and electricity, gas, steam, hot water and air conditioning supply sectors further weighing on the overall result. This more than offset a marked upturn in the agriculture, forestry and fishery sector.
The economy is expected to pick up momentum this year, thanks to an acceleration in government spending ahead of the elections and a less downbeat external sector. Reduced wage gains are set to weigh on private consumption growth, however, while fixed investment is likely seen losing traction amid deteriorating sentiment. Moreover, downside risks stem from bad loans in state-owned banks and uncertainty over economic and political relations with its largest ally, Russia.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project the economy to grow 1.8% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection. For 2021, the panel sees GDP increasing 1.9%.
Belarus - Consumption Data
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 4.3 | -2.4 | -3.2 | 4.8 | 8.0 |
Belarus Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 2.10 | -0.36 % | Dec 31 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Jan 07 |
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Economic News
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Belarus: Industrial production edges down in February
March 17, 2020
Industrial production fell 0.8% on an annual basis in February, following a marked 5.8% dip in the opening month of the year, which had marked the sharpest contraction since November 2015.
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Belarus: Inflation falls to 19-month low in February
March 10, 2020
Consumer prices rose 1.0% over the previous month in February, largely in line with January’s 0.9% increase but marking the strongest rise since February 2019.
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Belarus: Industrial production slumps at sharpest rate in over four years in January
February 18, 2020
Industrial production fell 5.8% on an annual basis in January, swinging from the previous month’s 4.3% expansion and marking the sharpest contraction since November 2015 amid a broad-based downturn.
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Belarus: Central Bank cuts refinancing rate to fresh record low in February
February 12, 2020
At its 12 February meeting, the National Bank of the Republic of Belarus (NBRB) trimmed the refinancing rate by 25 basis points to an all-time low of 8.75%.
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Belarus: Inflation remains stable in January
February 10, 2020
Consumer prices rose 0.9% over the previous month in January, accelerating slightly from December’s 0.5% uptick and marking the strongest increase in nearly a year.
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