Zambia Economic Outlook
November 17, 2020After the economy slipped into a technical recession in Q2 as the pandemic’s fallout battered the trade and construction sectors, available figures hint at a slow recovery so far. The external sector, in particular, seems to have staged a strong comeback as soaring shipments of copper—which accounts for the lion’s share of the country’s exports—combined with rallying prices for the commodity due to upbeat demand from China, translated into a massive increase in export revenues in August–September. Domestically, the private sector PMI continued to crawl higher, hitting a near two-year high in October, albeit still pointing to a deterioration in business conditions. Meanwhile, in late October, S&P Global Ratings cut the country’s credit rating from CCC- to selective default, after the government missed an interest payment and announced the suspension of debt service to external creditors. The country is headed to become the region’s first pandemic-era sovereign defaulter.
Zambia Economic GrowthAlthough the economy is poised to contract at the sharpest pace since the mid-1990s this year, it is seen bouncing back to growth in 2021, albeit remaining subdued by historical standards. Significant downside risks prevail, including uncertainty over the pace of the global economic recovery and the government’s massive foreign-currency-denominated debt burden. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 1.6% in 2021, which is down 0.3 percentage from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2022.
Zambia Economy Data
5 years of Zambia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Bond Yield||33.00||0.0 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||14.09||0.0 %||Jan 01|
|Stock Market||0.3||0.0 %||Jan 06|
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