Zambia Economic Forecast

Zambia Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Suffering from the worst drought in close to four decades, economic conditions remain challenging. The dearth of rainfall has restrained agricultural and hydropower output since the start of the year, and pushed up inflation to a near three-year high in July. Fearing that it would further stoke price pressures, the government delayed implementing a new sales tax for the third time this year, until 2020. Moreover, copper production shrank in H1 compared to the same period of last year, and overseas sales of the commodity also contracted in the period. The fall in exports largely reflects reduced copper earnings owing to lower prices. At the same time, the risk of debt distress remains elevated amid dwindling reserves and an increase in imports in the second quarter has further drained foreign exchange reserves.

Zambia Economic Growth

The economy is seen losing considerable traction this year amid high inflation, muted agricultural production, weak mining activity and an uncertain business environment. Meanwhile, ongoing tensions between the government and the mining sector, coupled with concerns over the government’s ability to repay its debts, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.3% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2020.

Zambia Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)15.215.716.216.717.2
GDP per capita (USD)1,8101,6851,5081,2931,566
GDP (USD bn)27.626.524.521.627.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.14.72.93.83.5
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.91.90.22.53.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-6.2-5.7-9.3-5.8-7.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.136.162.360.762.7
Money (annual variation in %)11.811.324.90.120.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.17.921.17.56.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)7.07.810.117.96.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)9.7512.5015.5015.5010.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)5.556.4011.009.9310.01
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)5.396.168.6610.319.54
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.82.3-2.3-3.2-1.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.20.6-0.6-0.7-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.61.70.20.21.0
Exports (USD billion)10.810.27.46.58.2
Imports (USD billion)9.28.67.26.37.3
Exports (annual variation in %)13.9-5.7-28.0-11.225.7
Imports (annual variation in %)16.0-6.9-16.0-12.515.2
International Reserves (USD)2.73.13.02.42.1

Sample Report

5 years of Zambia economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Zambia Facts

ValueChangeDate
Bond Yield28.380.0 %Jul 31
Exchange Rate12.880.0 %Jul 31
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jul 31

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form