Zambia Economic Forecast

Zambia Economic Outlook

October 19, 2021

GDP expanded 8.1% year-on-year in Q2 (Q1: +0.5% yoy) on the back of firming output in the construction, and wholesale and retail trade sectors, as well as robust growth in the information and communication sector. On the other hand, output in the mining and quarrying sector contracted at a steeper pace. Turning to Q3, data suggests that momentum picked up at the tail end of the quarter. In September, the private sector PMI returned to expansionary territory for the first time since April, on the back of stronger growth in new business amid improving demand dynamics. Moreover, inflation fell again in September, which, coupled with looser restrictions since July, bodes well for household spending. In other news, the U.S. recently announced an additional USD 11.3 million aid package to support democracy and boost SMEs in the country, following a meeting with President Hichilema.

Zambia Economic Growth

The economy is forecast to grow at a stronger pace next year. Hichilema’s election should usher in more business-friendly policies and see investor relations improve, while upbeat copper prices should buoy the external sector. Domestic demand will be aided by the vaccine rollout and the lifting of restrictions. However, a sizable debt burden clouds the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 2.2% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2023.

Zambia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.216.717.217.818.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,5081,2931,5661,608-  
GDP (USD bn)24.521.627.028.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.54.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.25.65.44.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.5-6.1-7.7-8.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.360.761.978.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.90.120.715.412.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)21.17.56.17.911.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.117.96.67.59.2
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.009.9310.0111.9414.09
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.5015.5010.259.7511.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.6610.319.5410.4812.92
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-3.2-1.6-1.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.6-0.7-0.4-0.30.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.20.21.00.50.7
Exports (USD billion)7.46.58.29.07.2
Imports (USD billion)7.26.37.38.56.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.0-11.225.79.9-19.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.0-12.515.217.4-23.7
International Reserves (USD)3.02.42.11.61.4

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Zambia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield33.000.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate14.090.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 06

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