Zambia Economic Forecast

Zambia Economic Outlook

June 21, 2022

Available data suggests economic growth is likely soft in Q2 2022. The private-sector PMI averaged only slightly above the 50.0 mark in April–May, signaling a marginal improvement in business conditions. In May in particular, both output and new orders fell, outweighing increased staffing levels and purchasing activity. That said, declining inflation and elevated prices for copper—the country’s key export—should be providing support. In mid-June, Zambia held talks with creditors over debt restructuring, a necessary pre-requisite to unlock USD 1.4 billion in IMF funding. Around the same time, the Fund’s deputy managing director suggested that a debt restructuring plan could be put to the IMF board by September. Completing debt restructuring and accessing IMF financing would provide an important economic boost.

Zambia Economic Growth

This year, GDP growth is seen decelerating slightly from 2021’s strong rebound amid tighter financial conditions. However, more business-friendly policies should lead to increased investment, while elevated copper prices will buoy government coffers. The finalization of debt restructuring talks will be a key factor to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.1% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2023.

Zambia Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)16.216.717.217.818.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,5081,2931,5661,608-  
GDP (USD bn)24.521.627.028.6-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.93.83.54.0-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.25.65.44.3-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-9.5-6.1-7.7-8.3-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)62.360.761.978.1-  
Money (annual variation in %)24.90.120.715.412.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)21.17.56.17.911.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)10.117.96.67.59.2
Policy Interest Rate (%)15.5015.5010.259.7511.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)11.009.9310.0111.9414.09
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)8.6610.319.5410.4812.92
Current Account (% of GDP)-2.3-3.2-1.6-1.2-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.6-0.7-0.4-0.30.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)0.20.21.00.50.7
Exports (USD billion)7.46.58.29.07.2
Imports (USD billion)7.26.37.38.56.5
Exports (annual variation in %)-28.0-11.225.79.9-19.9
Imports (annual variation in %)-16.0-12.515.217.4-23.7
International Reserves (USD)3.02.42.11.61.4

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Zambia Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield33.000.0 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate14.090.0 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.30.0 %Jan 06

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