Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

Economic activity continued to expand at a brisk pace in January and February, although the rate of expansion was somewhat lower than in Q4 2021 amid a softer increase in industrial production. Moving to Q2, the war in Ukraine and the significant disruptions to Russia’s economy will be weighing on remittances, bilateral trade and employment. Moreover, in mid-May, anti-government protests in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast, which resulted in deadly clashes with security forces and over 100 detentions, spell trouble for stability. More positively, the EBRD recently provided a USD 7 million loan to Arvand bank to support grassroot businesses. In politics, on May 31 the government signed a memorandum of understanding with Iran to boost cooperation in trade, investment and transportation.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The pace of economic expansion will decelerate markedly this year compared to 2021, partly on a tougher base of comparison. A plunging Russian economy will weigh on remittances, trade and consumer spending. Moreover, the complicated economic and political situation in neighboring Afghanistan poses further downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 1.1% in 2022, which is down 1.3 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.8% in 2023.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.58.78.99.19.3
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)6.97.06.97.58.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.97.17.37.5
Unemployment Rate2.22.32.10.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.26.06.75.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.07.33.97.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)0.60.70.90.91.0
Imports (USD billion)2.92.62.42.82.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.61.11.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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