Tajikistan Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy appeared to have lost pace in the third quarter of 2019, according to available official data. Although industrial production quickened in the third quarter, agricultural output decelerated markedly while capital investment continued to contract. Meanwhile, merchandise exports plummeted in the third quarter amid subdued demand from CIS countries. Turning to the final quarter of 2019, available statistics paint a similar picture: both industrial and agricultural output averaged lower in October–November compared to the third quarter, suggesting that economic activity likely faltered further. On a brighter note, however, merchandise exports rebounded notably in October–November on stronger demand from non-CIS countries.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Economic activity is seen easing somewhat this year, although it should remain healthy nonetheless amid robust household spending. Key risks to the outlook are the economy’s dependence on remittances from Russia, which makes it vulnerable to shocks there, and a fragile banking system. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in 2021.

Tajikistan Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	8.2	8.4	8.5	8.7	8.9
GDP per capita (USD)	1,043	1,031	807	799	777
GDP (USD bn)	8.5	8.6	6.9	7.0	6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	7.4	6.7	6.0	6.9	7.1
Unemployment Rate	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.3	2.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.3	0.3	0.8	-1.7	-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)	29.1	27.7	34.7	42.0	50.4
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	18.6	3.5	12.2	56.7	36.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.7	7.3	5.2	6.0	6.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.1	6.1	5.7	6.0	7.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	5.50	8.00	8.00	11.00	16.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	4.77	5.28	6.99	7.88	8.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	4.76	4.93	6.16	7.83	8.55
Current Account (% of GDP)	-10.4	-3.7	-6.9	-4.2	2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.9	-0.3	-0.5	-0.3	0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.4	-2.5	-2.0	-1.7	-1.2
Exports (USD billion)	0.6	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.9
Imports (USD billion)	4.6	3.6	2.9	2.6	2.4
Exports (annual variation in %)	-30.4	-8.2	8.6	16.7	30.7
Imports (annual variation in %)	3.5	-21.1	-20.5	-10.8	-6.4
International Reserves (EUR)	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	1.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	57.1	60.1	72.5	69.0	73.7

Sample Report

5 years of Tajikistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Tajikistan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	9.69	0.06 %	Dec 31

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Tajikistan Economy Data

Sample Report

Sample Report

Tajikistan Facts

Request a Trial

Search form

Sign up for our newsletter