Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

May 10, 2022

Data released by the Central Bank showed that growth in economic activity in January and February moderated from Q4 2021, but remained upbeat nonetheless. Softer expansions in industrial production were mainly behind the deceleration, while growth in agricultural activity gained steam, cushioning the slowdown. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine has pushed food prices up strongly, hit the flow of remittances from Russia and caused thousands of Tajik nationals to return to their home country. Meanwhile, in late April, the UN alerted against rising tensions in the eastern Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast region, and called on authorities to protect the Pamiri minority in order to avoid a violent conflict. On a more positive note, authorities are discussing the construction of a logistics hub to increase bilateral trade with Saudi Arabia.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

GDP is seen expanding this year, as the fading impact of the pandemic supports domestic demand. That said, a less favorable base effect will cause growth to moderate, while a shrinking Russian economy will curb remittances and restrain household spending. The complicated economic and political situation in neighboring Afghanistan poses a risk. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 2.4% in 2022, which is down 1.9 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 3.9% in 2023.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.58.78.99.19.3
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)6.97.06.97.58.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.97.17.37.5
Unemployment Rate2.22.32.10.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.26.06.75.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.07.33.97.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)0.60.70.90.91.0
Imports (USD billion)2.92.62.42.82.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.61.11.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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