Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

July 30, 2019

Official data paints a mixed picture for economic activity in January–May. On the supply side, metrics were upbeat: Industrial output rose by nearly a fifth in year-on-year terms, while agricultural production remained buoyant amid favorable weather conditions. On the demand front, however, activity fared poorly. Capital spending contracted sharply in the five-month period, in large part reflecting significantly lower investments in both fixed assets and real estate. Moreover, merchandise exports fell during the same period, primarily due to weaker demand from CIS countries. That said, imports of goods soared, which points to healthy household spending. But taken together, it seems the external sector has dragged on overall growth recently.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to lose momentum this year, as challenging business conditions weigh on investment while slowing activity in Russia could dent remittance inflows and thus private consumption. A fragile banking system, burdened by a large stock of nonperforming loans, and high levels of foreign-currency denominated debt pose key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.4% in 2019, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 5.3% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.28.48.58.78.9
GDP per capita (USD)1,0431,031807799777
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.734.742.050.4
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.26.06.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.4-3.7-6.9-4.22.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.3-0.5-0.30.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.4-2.5-2.0-1.7-1.2
Exports (USD billion)0.60.50.60.70.9
Imports (USD billion)4.63.62.92.62.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-30.4-8.28.616.730.7
Imports (annual variation in %)3.5-21.1-20.5-10.8-6.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.61.1
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.073.7

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.440.06 %Jul 31

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