Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

Evidence is emerging that the Tajik economy is reeling from the Covid-19 pandemic. In April, the economy minister stated that there was a sharp uptick in returning migrant workers in February and March, as Russia’s and Kazakhstan’s economies began to grind to a halt due to the pandemic and falling oil prices. Remittances are an important source of household income in the country. Moreover, prices for the country’s main commodity exports have slumped though early May amid the global shutdown, while widespread trade and transportation disruptions are also denting economic activity. Amid a sharp drop in government revenues and rise in essential health-related expenditure, the IMF approved a USD 189.5 million disbursement on 6 May. In other news, President Emomali Rahmon’s son was anointed as the chair of the upper house of Parliament on 17 April, signaling that he will likely follow in his father’s footsteps.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

GDP is expected to plunge this year on falling remittances inflows and as evaporated demand and compromised global supply chains plague the external sector. Moreover, government finances will likely remain under stress, exacerbated by a rigid foreign exchange market and sizeable twin deficits. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.5% in 2020, which is down 3.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, the economy is seen rebounding and GDP growing 5.6%.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)8.48.58.78.99.1
GDP per capita (USD)1,031807799777826
GDP (USD bn)8.66.97.06.97.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.76.26.97.17.3
Unemployment Rate2.42.22.32.10.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.3-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)27.734.742.150.447.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)3.512.256.736.610.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)7.35.26.06.75.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)6.15.76.07.33.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.008.0011.0016.0014.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)5.286.997.888.829.43
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.936.167.838.559.15
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.7-6.9-4.22.2-5.0
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.5-0.30.2-0.4
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.5-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9
Exports (USD billion)0.50.60.70.90.9
Imports (USD billion)3.62.92.62.42.8
Exports (annual variation in %)-8.28.616.730.70.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-21.1-20.5-10.8-6.415.6
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.50.61.11.1
External Debt (% of GDP)60.172.569.073.777.8

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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