Tajikistan Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

Incoming data points to weakening dynamics in the second half of 2018, after a solid start to the year. Exports waned in the third quarter, while import growth picked up pace, likely due to infrastructure development. In addition, remittances from Russia more than halved in Q3, compared to the same period last year. A weaker Russian ruble and lackluster growth in the regional giant, likely weighed on inflows. Meanwhile, addressing parliament on 26 December, President Emomali Rahmon stated that GDP grew a buoyant 7.3% in 2018. Official data, however, has yet to be released by the Central Bank.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Growth is seen moderating this year but remaining strong overall. A weak business climate, fragile banking sector and slower dynamics in Russia will weigh on activity. That said, healthy spending on infrastructure will continue to power growth. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.4% in 2020.

Tajikistan Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	8.1	8.3	8.5	8.7	8.8
GDP per capita (USD)	1,049	1,038	813	806	785
GDP (USD bn)	8.5	8.6	6.9	7.0	6.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	7.4	6.7	6.0	6.9	7.1
Unemployment Rate	2.4	2.4	2.2	2.3	2.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	0.3	0.3	0.8	-1.7	-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)	29.1	27.5	34.3	41.8	47.8
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	18.6	3.5	12.2	56.7	36.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	3.7	7.3	5.4	6.1	6.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.1	6.1	5.7	6.0	7.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	5.50	8.00	8.00	11.00	16.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	4.77	5.28	6.99	7.88	8.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	4.76	4.93	6.16	7.83	8.55
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.7	-3.0	-7.0	-3.8	-0.5
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.7	-0.3	-0.5	-0.3	0.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.0	-3.6	-2.5	-2.1	-1.6
Exports (USD billion)	1.2	1.1	0.9	0.9	1.2
Imports (USD billion)	4.1	4.7	3.4	3.0	2.8
Exports (annual variation in %)	-14.4	-7.3	-17.3	0.9	33.3
Imports (annual variation in %)	9.1	13.3	-26.4	-11.8	-8.4
International Reserves (EUR)	0.5	0.4	0.5	0.6	-
External Debt (% of GDP)	57.1	60.1	72.5	69.9	-

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