Tajikistan Economic Outlook
A remittance-driven economy:
Tajikistan is one of the most remittance-dependent countries in the world, with funds sent from workers abroad—mostly in Russia—accounting for over 30% of GDP. This income fuels domestic consumption but exposes the economy to economic downturns and policy changes in Russia.
Agriculture and hydropower potential:Agriculture employs a significant portion of the workforce, with cotton being a key export. Tajikistan also has vast hydropower resources, making it a major electricity exporter in Central Asia. However, infrastructure gaps and investment constraints limit the sector’s full potential.
Limited industrialization and trade challenges:The country’s manufacturing and industrial base remain underdeveloped. Trade is constrained by its landlocked position, poor transport links, and reliance on China and Russia for economic support. Moreover, foreign investment is limited due to concerns over corruption, weak governance, and debt sustainability.
Tajikistan’s economic forecasts:Tajikistan’s economy is expected to grow moderately, supported by remittances and infrastructure projects, including China’s Belt and Road Initiative. However, risks remain due to external dependence, financial vulnerabilities, and governance challenges. Strengthening domestic industries and improving the business climate will be critical for long-term stability.
Tajikistan's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 12.1 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 12.1 billion in 2023.
Nominal GDP of USD 12.1 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 1,205 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,205 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 1,205 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 7.3% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 7.3% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 7.3% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2021, services accounted for 34.1% of overall GDP, manufacturing 15.1%, other industrial activity 27.9%, and agriculture 22.9%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 87.6% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 10.1%, fixed investment 35.5%, and net exports -33.2%.International trade
In 2022, manufactured products made up 11.1% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 7.0%, food 4.0%, ores and metals 62.4% and agricultural raw materials 12.2%, with other categories accounting for 3.3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 53.8% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 19.1%, food 22.1%, ores and metals 1.9% and agricultural raw materials 3.1%, with other goods accounting for 0.0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 1.90 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 5.20 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 7.3% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Tajikistan, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Tajikistan's fiscal deficit averaged 2.0% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 11.6% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Tajikistan's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 6.3% in the decade to 2023. Go to our Tajikistan inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Tajikistan's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 9.00%, up from 8.00% a decade earlier. See our Tajikistan monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the somoni weakened by 51.4% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the somoni, click here.
Economic situation in Tajikistan
Tajikistan’s economy was strong in 2024, expanding by a whopping 8.4%—the second-fastest pace in the past 15 years and among the highest growth rates globally. Industry roared ahead, underpinned by major infrastructure projects like the Rogun hydropower plant. Meanwhile, the services sector drew strength from hefty remittance flows, which account for roughly one-third of GDP. Moreover, agriculture also had its moment in the sun, with strong harvests of fruit and vegetables boosting the sector. That said, the country’s GDP per capita remained among the world’s lowest. Switching to 2025, GDP growth likely remains solid by regional and historical standards, bolstered by the same factors. Available data bears out this forecast, with the Central Bank reporting around 8% GDP growth in January–April, bolstered by an over 25% rise in industrial production.Tajikistan Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.33 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 9 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Tajikistan in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 33 economic indicators for Tajikistan from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Tajikistan economy. To download a sample report on the Tajikistan's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.