Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

October 6, 2020

The economy seems to be suffering heavily at the hands of the coronavirus pandemic, although the scarcity of official data makes the downturn difficult to gauge. In September, the IMF concluded its mission in Tajikistan, highlighting that although the country has successfully contained the outbreak, the virus has led to disrupted supply chains, eviscerated foreign demand and sliding remittances, all of which have hurt economic activity. On a more positive note, the government’s fiscal measures and the Central Bank’s monetary policy easing appear to have softened the downturn somewhat. That said, plunging government revenues, persistent U.S. dollar shortages, elevated inflation and soaring debt among state-run enterprises all cloud the prospect of a meaningful recovery in the second half of this year. In politics, President Emomali Rahmon is expected to win the 11 October election by a landslide.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The economy is expected to shrink for the first time in over two decades this year as the pandemic deals a massive blow to domestic activity and external demand. Heightened inflation due to shortages and exchange rate pressures is set to further weigh on household spending. GDP is seen rebounding strongly further ahead, after the health crisis subsides. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 0.9% in 2020. In 2021, the economy is seen rebounding and growing 4.9%, which is down 0.6 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.58.78.99.19.3
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)6.97.06.97.58.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.97.17.37.5
Unemployment Rate2.22.32.10.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.26.06.75.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.07.33.97.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)0.60.70.90.91.0
Imports (USD billion)2.92.62.42.82.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.61.11.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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