Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

March 6, 2018

Data for January points to a loss of growth momentum at the outset of 2018. In the month, there was a deterioration in the external sector, and industrial production growth slowed. The trade balance widened year-on-year, as imports surged at a much faster pace than exports. Although industrial output continued expanding at a double-digit rate on an annual basis, the increase was considerably slower than in the preceding eight months. On the upside, annual growth in capital investment soared in January following a marked contraction in December.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to be robust this year, but moderate from 2017’s four-year high. Healthy private consumption, aided by remittances and higher wages from a tighter labor market, along with a strong industrial sector, should support growth. However, an anticipated drop in exports and fiscal consolidation measures are expected to weaken the pace of expansion. Risks continue to stem from the banking sector’s high level of non-performing loans. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.2% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and also 5.0% in 2019.

Tajikistan Economy Data

Population (million)
GDP per capita (USD)9971,0491,038813806
GDP (USD bn)
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)
Unemployment Rate2.
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)  
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.429.127.333.9-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)22.818.63.512.256.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.505.508.008.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.764.775.286.997.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.764.936.167.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-0.7-3.0-8.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1
Exports (USD billion)
Imports (USD billion)
Exports (annual variation in %)8.0-14.4-7.3-17.30.9
Imports (annual variation in %)
International Reserves (EUR)
External Debt (% of GDP)27.325.724.331.832.6

Sample Report

5 years of Tajikistan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.


Sample Report

Get a sample report showing all the data and analysis covered in our Regional, Country and Commodities reports.


Tajikistan Facts

Exchange Rate8.830.06 %Mar 15

Start Your Free Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up