Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

The economic panorama seemed to brighten in Q2, as activity picked up at the outset of the quarter on healthier dynamics in the agricultural and industrial sectors. In addition, recovering activity in Russia—the main source of remittance inflows—should have boosted private consumption in the period. In Q3, although rising new Covid-19 cases likely weighed on activity somewhat, an acceleration in the vaccination drive from July—around a quarter of the entire population received jabs in July–September—put the economy on a smoother course. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain high heading into the final quarter of the year, as uncertainty over the future of neighboring Afghanistan under Taliban rule threatens Tajikistan’s political and economic stability.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Growth is expected to gain steam this year as the constraining effects of the pandemic fade, with healthier remittance inflows boding well for household spending. Turning to 2022, growth is forecast to slow down slightly, but remain robust thanks to firmer external demand. That said, heightened geopolitical tensions remain a major risk to the outlook this year and next. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy to grow 5.5% in 2021 and 5.2% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.58.78.99.19.3
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)6.97.06.97.58.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.97.17.37.5
Unemployment Rate2.22.32.10.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.26.06.75.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.07.33.97.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)0.60.70.90.91.0
Imports (USD billion)2.92.62.42.82.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.61.11.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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