Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

The economy appeared to have lost pace in the third quarter of 2019, according to available official data. Although industrial production quickened in the third quarter, agricultural output decelerated markedly while capital investment continued to contract. Meanwhile, merchandise exports plummeted in the third quarter amid subdued demand from CIS countries. Turning to the final quarter of 2019, available statistics paint a similar picture: both industrial and agricultural output averaged lower in October–November compared to the third quarter, suggesting that economic activity likely faltered further. On a brighter note, however, merchandise exports rebounded notably in October–November on stronger demand from non-CIS countries.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Economic activity is seen easing somewhat this year, although it should remain healthy nonetheless amid robust household spending. Key risks to the outlook are the economy’s dependence on remittances from Russia, which makes it vulnerable to shocks there, and a fragile banking system. FocusEconomics panelists see the economy growing 5.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 5.1% in 2021.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20142015201620172018
Population (million)8.28.48.58.78.9
GDP per capita (USD)1,0431,031807799777
GDP (USD bn)8.58.66.97.06.9
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.46.76.06.97.1
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.22.32.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)0.30.30.8-1.7-0.3
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.127.734.742.050.4
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.63.512.256.736.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)3.77.35.26.06.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.16.15.76.07.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)5.508.008.0011.0016.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.775.286.997.888.82
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.936.167.838.55
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.4-3.7-6.9-4.22.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.9-0.3-0.5-0.30.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.4-2.5-2.0-1.7-1.2
Exports (USD billion)0.60.50.60.70.9
Imports (USD billion)4.63.62.92.62.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-30.4-8.28.616.730.7
Imports (annual variation in %)3.5-21.1-20.5-10.8-6.4
International Reserves (EUR)0.50.40.50.61.1
External Debt (% of GDP)57.160.172.569.073.7

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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