Tajikistan Economic Outlook

July 7, 2020

Incoming data paints a bleak picture, as the economy reels from the Covid-19 pandemic and global economic downturn. Exports contracted by over 15% in the first quarter as Tajikistan’s main trading partners began to enter lockdowns to contain the virus, and remittances from Russia plunged by nearly 30% in the same period as migrant workers returned home amid travel and work restrictions. In order to help mitigate the economic shock, the Asian Development Bank approved a USD 50 million grant to Tajikistan in June. Meanwhile, the World Bank USD 50 million for a critical hydropower rehabilitation project for the country in the same month.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

GDP is seen contracting for the first time in over two decades amid contagion from the coronavirus pandemic. A sharp drop in remittances inflows will dent household income, while lockdown measures, disruptions to supply chains and international trade will intensify the economic pain. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 1.8% in 2020, which is down 0.8 percentage points from last month’s forecast. Next year, the economy is seen rebounding and GDP growing 5.5%.

Tajikistan Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	8.5	8.7	8.9	9.1	9.3
GDP per capita (USD)	807	799	777	826	874
GDP (USD bn)	6.9	7.0	6.9	7.5	8.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	6.2	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.5
Unemployment Rate	2.2	2.3	2.1	0.0	-
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.0	-9.0	-6.0	-2.8	-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)	34.7	42.1	50.4	47.9	44.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	12.2	56.7	36.6	10.0	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.2	6.0	6.7	5.4	8.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.7	6.0	7.3	3.9	7.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	8.00	11.00	16.00	14.00	12.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	6.99	7.88	8.82	9.43	9.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	6.16	7.83	8.55	9.15	9.53
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.9	-4.2	2.3	-5.0	-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.3	0.2	-0.4	-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.3	-1.9	-1.5	-1.9	-1.7
Exports (USD billion)	0.6	0.7	0.9	0.9	1.0
Imports (USD billion)	2.9	2.6	2.4	2.8	2.9
Exports (annual variation in %)	8.6	16.7	30.7	0.1	14.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	-20.5	-10.8	-6.4	15.6	5.7
International Reserves (EUR)	0.4	0.6	1.1	1.1	-
External Debt (% of GDP)	70.7	70.6	82.3	79.4	79.7

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Tajikistan Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	9.69	0.06 %	Dec 31

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