Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Covid-19 seems to have dealt a severe blow to the economy in the first three quarters of the year, although the scarcity of official data makes the downturn difficult to gauge. The fallout from the pandemic appears to have led to disrupted supply chains, eviscerated foreign demand and sliding remittances, all of which will have hurt economic activity. More positively, however, the government’s fiscal measures and the Central Bank’s policy easing appear to have softened the downturn somewhat. That said, plunging government revenues, persistent U.S. dollar shortages, elevated inflation amid a plunging somoni and soaring debt among state-run enterprises bode ill for the recovery in Q4. In politics, on 11 October, incumbent President Emomali Rahmon claimed a landslide victory in a tightly controlled presidential election, securing his fifth consecutive seven-year term in office.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

The economy should rebound strongly next year, after GDP is set to shrink for the first time in over two decades in 2020 as Covid-19 deals a massive blow to domestic activity and external demand. Recovering consumer spending and foreign demand for merchandise exports should underpin the rebound, although currency volatility and elevated inflation cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will grow 4.9% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2022, the economy is seen growing 5.5%.

Tajikistan Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)8.58.78.99.19.3
GDP per capita (USD)807799777826874
GDP (USD bn)6.97.06.97.58.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)6.26.97.17.37.5
Unemployment Rate2.22.32.10.0-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-9.0-6.0-2.8-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)34.742.150.447.944.6
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)12.256.736.610.0-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.26.06.75.48.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.76.07.33.97.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)8.0011.0016.0014.0012.25
Exchange Rate (vs USD)6.997.888.829.439.69
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)6.167.838.559.159.53
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.9-4.22.3-5.0-2.3
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.30.2-0.4-0.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.3-1.9-1.5-1.9-1.7
Exports (USD billion)0.60.70.90.91.0
Imports (USD billion)2.92.62.42.82.9
Exports (annual variation in %)8.616.730.70.114.5
Imports (annual variation in %)-20.5-10.8-6.415.65.7
International Reserves (EUR)0.40.61.11.1-  
External Debt (% of GDP)70.770.682.379.479.7

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Tajikistan Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate9.690.06 %Dec 31

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