Tajikistan Economic Forecast

Tajikistan Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Recent data points to a slowdown at the start of Q4. In October, year-on-year growth in industrial output, while still in the double-digits, moderated from September. The pace of fixed investment growth also slowed, to half the rate in the previous month. Despite a slight acceleration in exports in annual terms, the external sector dragged more severely on growth in the month, as imports surged ahead of exports, widening the trade deficit. Investment continues to pour into the economy, however. In November, China announced plans to construct a USD 1.6 billion factory for producing aluminum—one of the country’s key exports—and the Asian Development Bank disbursed USD 50.9 million to aid private sector development.

Tajikistan Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to stay strong going forward, on the back of higher investment and resilient private consumption aided by rising remittances. The banking sector, however, continues to be weighed down by a high proportion of non-performing loans. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP to expand 5.1% in 2018, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and see growth creeping up to 5.2% in 2019.

Tajikistan Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)8.08.18.38.58.7
GDP per capita (USD)9971,0491,038813806
GDP (USD bn)7.98.58.66.97.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)7.57.46.76.06.9
Unemployment Rate2.42.42.42.22.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)1.50.30.30.8-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)32.429.127.333.9-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)22.818.63.512.256.7
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)6.43.77.25.36.1
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)5.85.16.15.76.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)6.505.508.008.0011.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)4.764.775.286.997.88
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)4.764.764.936.167.83
Current Account (% of GDP)-3.1-0.7-3.0-8.7-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-0.1-0.3-0.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.4-3.0-3.6-2.5-2.1
Exports (USD billion)1.41.21.10.90.9
Imports (USD billion)3.84.14.73.43.0
Exports (annual variation in %)8.0-14.4-7.3-17.30.9
Imports (annual variation in %)18.69.113.3-26.4-11.8
International Reserves (EUR)0.20.30.20.10.1
External Debt (% of GDP)27.325.724.331.832.6

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Tajikistan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate8.820.06 %Dec 06

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