Puerto Rico Economic Outlook
May 19, 2020Frequent earthquakes since January and the fallout from Covid-19 are smothering the economy. On 1 May, the government announced that it was extending the national lockdown, which has been in effect since 15 March to reduce the spread of coronavirus. This will be extinguishing domestic demand, while the external sector will be suffering from weak demand abroad. The effect on the labor market is notable: There was a sharp rise in unemployment claims in April, at a rate not seen since at least the late 1980s. In better news, from 4 May, some service sectors will be able to get back to business, although strict hygiene rules will apply, while construction and manufacturing activity will be able to resume from 11 May. Moreover, the government received USD 2.2 billion in federal financial assistance in April and has asked the federal oversight board to delay required austerity measures for two years.
Puerto Rico Economic GrowthThe economy is set to contract in fiscal year 2020, which runs from July 2019 to June 2020, after growing in FY 2019 for the first time in seven years. This is due to the coronavirus pandemic, earthquakes and a dwindling population. Our panelists forecast that GNP will contract 2.7% in FY 2020, which is down 0.3 percentage points from last monthâ€™s estimate, before expanding 2.3% in FY 2021.
Puerto Rico Economy Data
|GNP per capita (USD)||19,463||20,040||20,544||21,053||21,298|
|GNP (USD bn)||68.8||69.6||70.0||70.0||68.0|
|Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)||-1.8||-0.8||-1.6||-3.0||-4.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||97.8||95.1||91.8||91.7||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.5||-1.3||0.2||1.9||1.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||0.9||-0.3||-0.2||0.6||1.6|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||4.3||7.2||9.1||8.4||8.1|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||4.4||7.5||9.5||8.7||8.1|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||19.7||26.4||28.4||25.2||14.1|
|Exports (USD billion)||62.3||69.5||71.7||71.1||60.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||42.6||43.1||43.3||45.9||46.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-0.1||11.5||3.3||-0.9||-14.8|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-5.6||1.2||0.5||6.1||1.1|
5 years of Puerto Rico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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