Puerto Rico Economic Outlook
February 18, 2020Aftershocks continue to rattle Puerto Rico after it was hit by its biggest earthquake in a century in early January, which destroyed infrastructure and temporarily left hundreds of thousands without electricity. The U.S. Geological Survey reported in late January that aftershocks are likely to persist for several years, although at a gradually slowing frequency; it also estimated that there is currently at least a 25% chance of a magnitude 6 or greater earthquake within the next 12 months. The USGA’s report came shortly after the federal government released long-delayed disaster-relief funding worth USD 8.2 billion to island authorities, while publishing guidelines for Puerto Rico to request an additional USD 8.3 billion of funding. Meanwhile, available data confirms the economy remains in a fragile state: Although activity increased tepidly for the second consecutive month in November, it slowed from October.
Puerto Rico Economic GrowthEconomic growth is likely to slow in FY 2020, which ends in June, after appearing to return in FY 2019 for the first time in seven years. This is partly due to the government’s tighter fiscal stance, natural disasters and a dwindling population. However, re-building efforts should partially cushion the slowdown. Our panelists forecast that GNP will expand 0.5% in FY 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before slowing to 0.2% in FY 2021.
Puerto Rico Economy Data
|GNP per capita (USD)||19,463||20,040||20,544||21,053||21,298|
|GNP (USD bn)||68.8||69.6||70.0||70.0||68.0|
|Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)||-1.8||-0.8||-1.6||-3.0||-4.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-||-||-||-||-|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||97.8||95.1||91.8||91.7||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)||1.5||-1.3||0.2||1.9||1.0|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||0.9||-0.3||-0.2||0.6||1.6|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||4.3||7.2||9.1||8.4||8.1|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||4.4||7.5||9.5||8.7||8.1|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||19.7||26.4||28.4||25.2||14.1|
|Exports (USD billion)||62.3||69.5||71.7||71.1||60.6|
|Imports (USD billion)||42.6||43.1||43.3||45.9||46.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-0.1||11.5||3.3||-0.9||-14.8|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-5.6||1.2||0.5||6.1||1.1|
5 years of Puerto Rico economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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