Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

October 9, 2018

The economy continued to shrink in July, the first month of FY 2019, according to data released by the Economic Development Bank for Puerto Rico. However, the contraction in July moderated for the eighth consecutive month, which offers a glimmer of hope that growth beckons on the short-term horizon. This comes after GNP likely contracted at the fastest pace in over two decades in FY 2018. Meanwhile, a debt-restructuring agreement covering nearly a quarter of Puerto Rico’s public debt will be sent to a federal bankruptcy court in November. If approved, the deal will provide billions of dollars of debt relief and servicing cost savings.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

The economy is likely to grow this fiscal year, due to a low base effect from last year’s dismal economic performance and the stimulus received from federal disaster relief funding. Our panelists forecast that GNP will expand 4.3% in FY 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate, and 3.0% in FY 2020.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.53.53.43.4
GNP per capita (USD)19,18819,46320,04020,58521,057
GNP (USD bn)68.968.869.670.270.6
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)-0.1-1.8-0.8-1.3-2.4
Unemployment Rate14.014.313.011.711.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)94.297.895.191.591.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.41.5-1.30.21.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.90.9-0.3-0.20.6
Current Account (% of GDP)4.74.27.38.3-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)4.84.37.58.6-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)17.420.026.228.524.9
Exports (USD billion)62.462.569.471.971.1
Imports (USD billion)45.042.543.243.346.2
Exports (annual variation in %)5.90.111.13.6-1.0
Imports (annual variation in %)-3.3-5.71.80.26.7

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