Puerto Rico Economic Forecast

Puerto Rico Economic Outlook

December 7, 2017

Puerto Rico remains crippled by infrastructure problems caused by Hurricanes Maria and Irma, while its government is deep in debt. On 13 November, Governor Ricardo Rosselló requested additional U.S. federal aid amounting to USD 94.4 billion. The funds would help Puerto Rico recover from the devastation from the hurricanes, which caused economic losses of up to USD 95 billion, according to Moody’s. The U.S. federal government is, however, waiting for a full damage assessment to be completed before it addresses Puerto Rico’s aid needs more comprehensively. Concern is also mounting about the potential effects on the Puerto Rican economy of proposed Republican tax reform, as it contains measures that could harm the island’s economic competitiveness.

Puerto Rico Economic Growth

The economy is expected to remain in recession this fiscal year due to falls in private consumption and fixed investment. For FY 2018, FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists estimate GNP will contract 1.8%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. For FY 2019, GNP growth is seen improving to a modest 0.1% expansion.

Puerto Rico Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.63.63.63.53.5
GNP per capita (USD)18,73319,18819,279-  -  
GNP (USD bn)68.168.968.5-  -  
Economic Growth (GNP, annual variation in %)0.5-0.1-1.7-  -  
Unemployment Rate15.214.014.313.011.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-  -  -  -  -  
Public Debt (% of GDP)63.863.465.964.261.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)0.90.41.5-1.30.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.60.90.9-0.3-0.2
Current Account (% of GDP)3.54.74.27.38.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)3.64.84.37.58.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)12.317.420.026.228.5
Exports (USD billion)58.962.462.569.471.9
Imports (USD billion)46.645.042.543.243.3
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.25.90.111.13.6
Imports (annual variation in %)4.3-3.3-5.71.80.2

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