Oman Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018In 2018, the economic picture looks brighter than in 2017, when growth was negatively affected by reduced oil production. In the first three months of this year, the fiscal deficit was cut by half compared to the same period in 2017, thanks to increased oil revenue and reduced total expenditure. Higher oil revenue was due to higher prices, given that in January–April, oil production was stable vis-à-vis last year. Although this is welcome news given the poor state of the public finances, the government remains highly reliant on oil revenue to finance spending. This was not helped in December of last year, when the imposition of a VAT of 5% was postponed until 2019. Meanwhile, in the period up to April of this year, total credit and financing in the private sector increased at a healthy pace, suggesting solid economic activity in the period.
Oman Economic GrowthIncreased production from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field should boost the economy this year. Furthermore, diversification initiatives centered around non-oil exports and tourism should support economic growth. That said, large fiscal imbalances still cloud the outlook. Our panel forecasts growth of 2.9% for 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% again for 2019.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||21,935||21,784||18,214||16,646||17,546|
|GDP (USD bn)||78.8||81.0||68.8||66.7||72.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.3||1.2||4.7||5.4||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.0||5.1||-0.6||-0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||12.4||2.4||1.1||-0.7||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||3.1||0.2||5.4||3.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||-1.2||-19.0||-26.0||-11.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||4.9||4.9||12.8||31.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.3||1.0||0.1||1.1||1.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.19||1.95|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||6.6||5.2||-15.9||-18.4||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||5.2||4.2||-10.9||-12.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||24.4||25.6||9.1||6.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||56.4||53.5||35.6||27.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||32.0||27.9||26.5||21.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||8.2||-5.1||-33.4||-22.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||25.0||-13.0||-4.8||-19.9||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.9||16.3||17.5||20.2||16.1|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.38||0.06 %||Jul 17|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Jul 13|
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