Oman Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021
Economic conditions likely improved in the second quarter, as crude oil output expanded year-on-year, contrasting the decline posted in Q1. Moreover, growth in natural gas production accelerated notably in Q2, boding well for the energy sector. That said, ongoing Covid-19 restrictions likely continued to hamper the non-energy sector in the quarter, and the introduction of a VAT in mid-April is expected to have dampened consumer spending. Turning to Q3, the easing of restrictions due to declining new Covid-19 cases should have supported activity. Meanwhile, the energy sector likely continued to expand robustly as crude oil output grew at a rapid pace in July–August, while natural gas production remained upbeat in the same period. Moreover, the DME Oman crude oil price hit the highest level in roughly three years in late September, which should be supporting public coffers.Oman Economic Growth
GDP should grow this year following last year’s projected steep contraction, as the fallout from the pandemic fades, oil production rebounds and external demand strengthens. In 2022, GDP growth is poised to accelerate on the back of higher energy exports and output, and stronger domestic demand. That said, weak fiscal metrics pose a downside risk to the outlook. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 2.0% in 2021. In 2022, our panel expects GDP to grow 3.8%, which is down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.Oman Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 18,080 | 16,311 | 17,020 | 18,947 | 17,659 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 68.3 | 65.4 | 70.5 | 79.2 | 76.0 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 4.6 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 1.8 | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 0.7 | -0.5 | 5.9 | 0.6 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | -1.2 | 16.5 | -4.3 | -5.1 | - |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 5.1 | 4.8 | -1.6 | 2.6 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 3.6 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -17.6 | -21.1 | -13.9 | -8.7 | -9.1 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 15.5 | 32.7 | 46.4 | 53.5 | 62.6 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.1 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.95 | 2.93 | - |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -16.0 | -19.1 | -15.6 | -5.5 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -10.9 | -12.5 | -11.0 | -4.3 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 9.1 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 18.1 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 35.6 | 27.5 | 32.8 | 41.7 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 26.5 | 21.3 | 24.1 | 23.6 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -33.4 | -22.8 | 19.4 | 26.9 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -4.8 | -19.9 | 13.3 | -2.0 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 17.5 | 20.2 | 16.1 | 17.4 | 16.6 |
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Oman Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.39 | 0.06 % | Dec 31 |
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