Oman Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018
The economy remained in good stead through Q3. The value of oil and natural gas output rose significantly in January–September compared to the same period a year earlier, thanks to higher prices. In turn, public finances and the external sector improved, as reflected by a lower fiscal deficit in January–September and a higher trade surplus in January–July. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its long-term credit rating of BB for Oman on 11 November. The world’s largest credit ratings agency also added it might raise its rating if the accumulation of external debt slows, which would largely depend on the government’s ability to introduce a VAT and excise taxes next year.Oman Economic Growth
Increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field and higher fixed investment should support economic growth going forward. Nevertheless, the economy still faces fiscal imbalances and remains largely dependent on hydrocarbons. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.Oman Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 4.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 21,935 | 21,784 | 18,214 | 16,646 | 17,546 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 78.8 | 81.0 | 68.8 | 66.7 | 72.5 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 5.3 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | - |
| Consumption (annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 5.1 | -0.6 | -0.6 | - |
| Investment (annual variation in %) | 12.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | -0.7 | - |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 3.1 | 0.2 | 5.4 | 3.2 | - |
| Unemployment Rate | 17.1 | 16.4 | 15.8 | 15.8 | 16.0 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -0.3 | -1.2 | -19.0 | -26.0 | -11.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 4.9 | 4.9 | 12.8 | 31.4 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.95 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | 6.6 | 5.2 | -15.9 | -18.4 | - |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | 5.2 | 4.2 | -10.9 | -12.3 | - |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 24.4 | 25.6 | 9.1 | 6.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 56.4 | 53.5 | 35.6 | 27.5 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 32.0 | 27.9 | 26.5 | 21.3 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 8.2 | -5.1 | -33.4 | -22.8 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 25.0 | -13.0 | -4.8 | -19.9 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.9 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 20.2 | 16.1 |
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Oman Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.39 | 0.06 % | Dec 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Dec 12 |
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