Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

The economy likely bounced back last year thanks to rising hydrocarbon prices and output, after contracting in 2017. In addition, the government’s fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP fell notably due to higher oil revenues, fresh data has shown. Nevertheless, the World Bank said on 1 May that Oman’s “persistently large” fiscal deficits are increasing debt levels. Moreover, the IMF noted on 11 April that the government overspent last year, while tax revenues were lower than originally forecast. The Fund also added that the underlying fiscal balance excluding oil revenues actually deteriorated. S&P Global Ratings left Oman’s sovereign credit rating at BB on 19 April but revised the outlook to negative from stable.

Oman Economic Growth

The economy is seen accelerating this year compared to last year, largely due to higher government consumption and fixed investment. Growth should be particularly strong in 2020 thanks to government plans to significantly raise investment in the Khazzan-Makarem gas field that year. However, fragile public finances and OPEC+ efforts to constrain oil output could weigh on growth prospects. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is down 0.5 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.0% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.31.24.75.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.42.41.1-0.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.25.43.2-  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.11.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.191.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-10.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %May 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %May 13

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