Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

June 7, 2022

With the economy remaining below pre-pandemic levels at the end of last year, growth was probably moderate in Q1 2022 due to the restrictions imposed as the Omicron variant swept the country. Meanwhile, inflation swelled to the highest level since 2011 on decade-high commodity prices, likely depressing private consumption. However, growth momentum is likely improving in Q2. The government has eased Covid-19 restrictions as the Omicron wave subsided. Moreover, near-decade high oil prices and rising oil production are boosting the external and fiscal balances, leading S&P Global Ratings to upgrade the country’s sovereign debt rating to ‘BB-’ with a stable outlook in April. Less positively, an economic slowdown in China—the main buyer of Oman’s oil—is likely constraining hydrocarbon export demand somewhat.

Oman Economic Growth

Economic growth will be higher this year than it was last year due to increased oil and gas output. Moreover, eased Covid-19 restrictions and further progress on the government’s structural reforms and diversification efforts should fuel investment. That said, fiscal consolidation, a fragile labor market and pandemic-related uncertainty pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 4.2% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In 2023, our panel expects GDP to grow 3.0%.

Oman Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.84.04.14.24.3
GDP per capita (USD)18,08016,31117,02018,94717,659
GDP (USD bn)68.365.470.579.276.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.65.10.31.8-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.7-0.55.90.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.216.5-4.3-5.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.14.8-1.62.6-  
Unemployment Rate3.63.33.02.92.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-17.6-21.1-13.9-8.7-9.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)15.532.746.453.562.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.11.11.60.90.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.191.952.93-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.0-19.1-15.6-5.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.9-12.5-11.0-4.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.16.38.818.1-  
Exports (USD billion)35.627.532.841.7-  
Imports (USD billion)26.521.324.123.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-33.4-22.819.426.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.8-19.913.3-2.0-  
International Reserves (USD)17.520.216.117.416.6

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Oman Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Dec 31

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