Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

March 5, 2019

The economy likely rebounded in 2018 after a contraction in 2017, primarily on the back of increased hydrocarbon output and prices. Preliminary estimates show the fiscal deficit fell in absolute terms to a four-year low on the back of higher government revenue, despite greater expenditure. Moreover, international reserves climbed, while exports rose by over a third in January–September. Turning to 2019, Moody’s said in February that the fiscal deficit is unlikely to improve much more due to lacking policy action from the government. Meanwhile, a large sebacic acid factory began production in the city of Duqm in the same month, highlighting government economic diversification efforts.

Oman Economic Growth

In 2019, increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field, stronger fixed investment and the government’s push to strengthen non-hydrocarbon output should support overall growth. However, the economy continues to face large fiscal imbalances. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.31.24.75.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.42.41.1-0.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.25.43.2-  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.11.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.191.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-10.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Mar 11
Stock Market0.10.0 %Mar 08

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