Oman Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019The economy likely rebounded in 2018 after a contraction in 2017, primarily on the back of increased hydrocarbon output and prices. Preliminary estimates show the fiscal deficit fell in absolute terms to a four-year low on the back of higher government revenue, despite greater expenditure. Moreover, international reserves climbed, while exports rose by over a third in January–September. Turning to 2019, Moody’s said in February that the fiscal deficit is unlikely to improve much more due to lacking policy action from the government. Meanwhile, a large sebacic acid factory began production in the city of Duqm in the same month, highlighting government economic diversification efforts.
Oman Economic GrowthIn 2019, increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field, stronger fixed investment and the government’s push to strengthen non-hydrocarbon output should support overall growth. However, the economy continues to face large fiscal imbalances. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||21,935||21,784||18,214||16,646||17,546|
|GDP (USD bn)||78.8||81.0||68.8||66.7||72.5|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||5.3||1.2||4.7||5.4||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||6.0||5.1||-0.6||-0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||12.4||2.4||1.1||-0.7||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||3.1||0.2||5.4||3.2||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||-1.2||-19.0||-26.0||-11.7|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||4.9||4.9||12.8||31.4||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||1.3||1.0||0.1||1.1||1.7|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.19||1.95|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||6.6||5.2||-15.9||-18.4||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||5.2||4.2||-10.9||-12.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||24.4||25.6||9.1||6.2||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||56.4||53.5||35.6||27.5||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||32.0||27.9||26.5||21.3||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||8.2||-5.1||-33.4||-22.8||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||25.0||-13.0||-4.8||-19.9||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.9||16.3||17.5||20.2||16.1|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Mar 11|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Mar 08|
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