Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

Economic activity likely gained considerable steam in sequential terms in H2, as the non-oil sector benefited from the easing of Covid-19-related restrictions, while a stimulus package introduced in late November should have also supported domestic demand. Meanwhile, crude oil production and natural gas output growth accelerated from H1’s average in July–November, pointing to a stronger hydrocarbon sector. Furthermore, progress on structural reforms and higher oil and gas revenues continued to support public coffers. Consequently, preliminary estimates suggest that the fiscal deficit narrowed by over 70% by the end of 2021 relative to 2020. Meanwhile, authorities recently released an outline of the general budget for 2022, which aims to maintain fiscal prudence, encourage private investment and increase non-oil revenues—largely sticking to initiatives under the medium-term fiscal plan.

Oman Economic Growth

GDP growth should accelerate this year, on a stronger hydrocarbon sector amid increased natural gas production and higher crude oil output as OPEC+’s cuts are phased out. Moreover, further progress on the government’s structural reforms should fuel investment. That said, fiscal consolidation, a struggling labor market and uncertainty around the virus pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 3.5% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In 2023, our panel expects GDP to grow 2.8%.

Oman Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.84.04.14.24.3
GDP per capita (USD)18,08016,31117,02018,94717,659
GDP (USD bn)68.365.470.579.276.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)4.65.10.31.8-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)0.7-0.55.90.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-1.216.5-4.3-5.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)5.14.8-1.62.6-  
Unemployment Rate3.63.33.02.92.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-17.6-21.1-13.9-8.7-9.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)15.532.746.453.562.6
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.11.11.60.90.1
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.191.952.93-  
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.0-19.1-15.6-5.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-10.9-12.5-11.0-4.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.16.38.818.1-  
Exports (USD billion)35.627.532.841.7-  
Imports (USD billion)26.521.324.123.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-33.4-22.819.426.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-4.8-19.913.3-2.0-  
International Reserves (USD)17.520.216.117.416.6

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Oman Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Dec 31

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