Oman Economic Outlook

October 29, 2019

While oil production dipped in January–September in annual terms, hindered by OPEC+ production cuts, the non-oil economy appears to be humming along well. Inflation averaged a mere quarter of a percent in January–September, which should have supported private spending, while bank lending rose at a healthy pace in January–August in annual terms, which should have buffered fixed investment. Looking at the public purse, the fiscal deficit narrowed by a quarter in January–August compared to the same period a year earlier, thanks to higher revenue. Nevertheless, the government remains reliant on volatile oil revenues and, in late October, S&P Global Ratings said it would cut its sovereign credit rating of Oman if the government fails to curtail rising debt linked to its sizable fiscal deficits.

Oman Economic Growth

Economic growth is expected to accelerate next year, propelled by healthy fixed investment amid low interest rates. Continued or deeper OPEC+ oil production cuts could weigh on growth, however. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 2.6% in 2020, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.8% in 2021.

Oman Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.6	3.7	3.8	4.0	4.1
GDP per capita (USD)	21,893	21,784	18,218	16,426	17,102
GDP (USD bn)	78.7	81.0	68.8	65.9	70.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.1	1.4	4.7	5.0	-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.1	5.9	-0.2	-0.7	0.3
Investment (annual variation in %)	12.4	2.4	-1.2	16.5	-3.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	3.1	0.2	5.1	4.6	-2.5
Unemployment Rate	4.2	3.9	3.5	3.3	3.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.3	-3.4	-17.5	-20.9	-13.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	5.0	4.9	15.5	32.5	46.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.1	1.0	0.1	1.1	1.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.19	1.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39
Current Account (% of GDP)	6.6	5.2	-15.9	-18.7	-15.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	5.2	4.2	-10.9	-12.3	-10.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	24.4	25.6	9.1	6.2	8.7
Exports (USD billion)	56.4	53.5	35.6	27.5	32.8
Imports (USD billion)	32.0	27.9	26.5	21.3	24.1
Exports (annual variation in %)	8.2	-5.1	-33.4	-22.8	19.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	25.0	-13.0	-4.8	-19.9	13.3
International Reserves (USD)	15.9	16.3	17.5	20.2	16.1

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Oman Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	0.39	0.06 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Sep 04

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