Oman Economic Outlook

July 2, 2019

The economy appears to be in good shape. Oil prices in the first half of 2019 averaged above the USD 58 per barrel level that the government projected in its annual budget, in a positive development for the public purse. Moreover, oil production, a key contributor to total economic output, increased slightly in January–May in annual terms, while the non-hydrocarbon economy is also seemingly strengthening. Tourist arrivals increased by over 10% in January?April compared to the same period a year earlier and new tax exemptions for investors in the tourism sector came into effect in June. Meanwhile, the government introduced a new 100% tax on tobacco, alcohol and pork on 15 June, in an effort to reduce its reliance on oil revenue.

Oman Economic Growth

The economy should largely maintain its momentum this year on robust government consumption and faster fixed investment growth. Economic growth should be particularly strong next year thanks to government plans to significantly raise investment in the Khazzan-Makarem gas field in 2020. That said, fragile public finances and OPEC+ efforts to constrain oil output hinder growth prospects. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 2.0% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.1% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.6	3.7	3.8	4.0	4.1
GDP per capita (USD)	21,893	21,784	18,218	16,426	17,102
GDP (USD bn)	78.7	81.0	68.8	65.9	70.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.1	1.4	4.7	5.0	-0.9
Consumption (annual variation in %)	6.1	5.9	-0.2	-0.7	0.3
Investment (annual variation in %)	12.4	2.4	-1.2	16.5	-3.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	3.1	0.2	5.1	4.6	-2.5
Unemployment Rate	4.2	3.9	3.5	3.3	3.1
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.3	-3.4	-17.5	-20.9	-13.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	5.0	4.9	15.5	32.5	46.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	1.1	1.0	0.1	1.1	1.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	1.00	1.00	1.00	1.19	1.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39	0.39
Current Account (% of GDP)	6.6	5.2	-15.9	-18.7	-15.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	5.2	4.2	-10.9	-12.3	-10.7
Trade Balance (USD billion)	24.4	25.6	9.1	6.2	8.7
Exports (USD billion)	56.4	53.5	35.6	27.5	32.8
Imports (USD billion)	32.0	27.9	26.5	21.3	24.1
Exports (annual variation in %)	8.2	-5.1	-33.4	-22.8	19.4
Imports (annual variation in %)	25.0	-13.0	-4.8	-19.9	13.3
International Reserves (USD)	15.9	16.3	17.5	20.2	16.1

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Oman Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	0.39	0.06 %	Jul 11
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jul 11

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