Oman Economic Outlook
November 28, 2017The economy continues to be held back by OPEC oil production cuts, and weak consumption and investment dynamics. Despite the ongoing austerity drive, recent data shows the budget deficit remained colossal in the year to September. Corporate tax reform earlier in 2017 has yet to meaningfully boost revenues, and the government is struggling to curtail spending. As a result, Oman has been forced to borrow over USD 10 billion internationally this year, and public debt is rising fast. In addition, the unemployment rate is elevated, particularly among the young. On the positive side, international reserves and private sector credit growth remain at healthy levels, and the government’s Tanfeedh program aims to diversify the economy and wean it off oil dependence.
Oman Economic GrowthGrowth is likely to accelerate next year thanks to greater gas production at the Khazzan field and the expected lifting of oil supply restrictions. Looking further ahead, reforms to foreign ownership and investment laws should provide impetus. However, significant fiscal and external imbalances will continue to cloud the outlook. Analysts forecast growth of 2.7% for 2018, unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% for 2019.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||23,271||21,935||21,773||18,161||16,731|
|GDP (USD bn)||76.6||78.8||80.9||69.7||66.2|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||7.1||4.4||2.5||5.7||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||14.4||2.5||7.4||2.0||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||26.2||6.1||0.8||2.5||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||4.9||3.1||-0.1||4.9||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-0.3||0.8||-3.4||-18.7||-26.2|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||4.6||4.9||4.9||9.2||-|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||3.0||1.3||1.0||0.1||1.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.00||1.19|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||10.2||6.6||5.2||-15.5||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||7.8||5.2||4.2||-10.8||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||26.5||24.4||25.6||9.1||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||52.1||56.4||53.5||35.6||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||25.6||32.0||27.9||26.5||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||10.7||8.2||-5.1||-33.4||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||19.2||25.0||-13.0||-4.7||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||14.3||15.9||16.3||17.5||20.2|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Dec 06|
|Stock Market||0.1||0.0 %||Dec 06|
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