Oman Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022With the economy remaining below pre-pandemic levels at the end of last year, growth was probably moderate in Q1 2022 due to the restrictions imposed as the Omicron variant swept the country. Meanwhile, inflation swelled to the highest level since 2011 on decade-high commodity prices, likely depressing private consumption. However, growth momentum is likely improving in Q2. The government has eased Covid-19 restrictions as the Omicron wave subsided. Moreover, near-decade high oil prices and rising oil production are boosting the external and fiscal balances, leading S&P Global Ratings to upgrade the country’s sovereign debt rating to ‘BB-’ with a stable outlook in April. Less positively, an economic slowdown in China—the main buyer of Oman’s oil—is likely constraining hydrocarbon export demand somewhat.
Oman Economic GrowthEconomic growth will be higher this year than it was last year due to increased oil and gas output. Moreover, eased Covid-19 restrictions and further progress on the government’s structural reforms and diversification efforts should fuel investment. That said, fiscal consolidation, a fragile labor market and pandemic-related uncertainty pose downside risks. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists foresee the economy growing 4.2% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In 2023, our panel expects GDP to grow 3.0%.
Oman Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||18,080||16,311||17,020||18,947||17,659|
|GDP (USD bn)||68.3||65.4||70.5||79.2||76.0|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.6||5.1||0.3||1.8||-|
|Consumption (annual variation in %)||0.7||-0.5||5.9||0.6||-|
|Investment (annual variation in %)||-1.2||16.5||-4.3||-5.1||-|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||5.1||4.8||-1.6||2.6||-|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-17.6||-21.1||-13.9||-8.7||-9.1|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||15.5||32.7||46.4||53.5||62.6|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||0.1||1.1||1.6||0.9||0.1|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||1.00||1.19||1.95||2.93||-|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39||0.39|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-16.0||-19.1||-15.6||-5.5||-|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-10.9||-12.5||-11.0||-4.3||-|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||9.1||6.3||8.8||18.1||-|
|Exports (USD billion)||35.6||27.5||32.8||41.7||-|
|Imports (USD billion)||26.5||21.3||24.1||23.6||-|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-33.4||-22.8||19.4||26.9||-|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-4.8||-19.9||13.3||-2.0||-|
|International Reserves (USD)||17.5||20.2||16.1||17.4||16.6|
5 years of Oman economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.39||0.06 %||Dec 31|
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