Oman Economic Forecast

Oman Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

The economy remained in good stead through Q3. The value of oil and natural gas output rose significantly in January–September compared to the same period a year earlier, thanks to higher prices. In turn, public finances and the external sector improved, as reflected by a lower fiscal deficit in January–September and a higher trade surplus in January–July. Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings affirmed its long-term credit rating of BB for Oman on 11 November. The world’s largest credit ratings agency also added it might raise its rating if the accumulation of external debt slows, which would largely depend on the government’s ability to introduce a VAT and excise taxes next year.

Oman Economic Growth

Increased output from the Khazzan-Makarem gas field and higher fixed investment should support economic growth going forward. Nevertheless, the economy still faces fiscal imbalances and remains largely dependent on hydrocarbons. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists forecast growth of 3.0% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2020.

Oman Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.73.84.04.1
GDP per capita (USD)21,93521,78418,21416,64617,546
GDP (USD bn)78.881.068.866.772.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)5.31.24.75.4-  
Consumption (annual variation in %)6.05.1-0.6-0.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)12.42.41.1-0.7-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)3.10.25.43.2-  
Unemployment Rate17.116.415.815.816.0
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.3-1.2-19.0-26.0-11.7
Public Debt (% of GDP)4.94.912.831.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.31.00.11.11.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)1.001.001.001.191.95
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.390.390.390.390.39
Current Account (% of GDP)6.65.2-15.9-18.4-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)5.24.2-10.9-12.3-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)24.425.69.16.2-  
Exports (USD billion)56.453.535.627.5-  
Imports (USD billion)32.027.926.521.3-  
Exports (annual variation in %)8.2-5.1-33.4-22.8-  
Imports (annual variation in %)25.0-13.0-4.8-19.9-  
International Reserves (USD)15.916.317.520.216.1

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Oman Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.390.06 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 12

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