Moldova Economic Outlook

February 26, 2019

The absence of a clear winner in the general election held on 24 February has hurled the nation into political uncertainty. The pro-Russia Socialist Party secured the greatest number of seats, but fell short of a majority win, while the remainder of the votes were largely split between the ruling pro-Western Democratic Party, and ACUM—a political bloc rallying against corruption. With the ballot marred by a myriad of controversies—from vote-buying allegations to meddling by Moscow—coalition talks are likely to be tough. Consequently, the future of economic policy is uncertain, following a likely deceleration in H2 2018. While easing credit conditions and solid remittance inflows supported private spending, growth likely cooled in the second half on a deterioration in the country’s external position.

Moldova Economic Growth

Growth is set to lose pace this year on a slowdown in exports, owing to a more challenging trade environment. Moreover, downside risks stem from prolonged political deadlock and the associated hit to investor confidence. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.5
GDP per capita (USD)	2,252	2,249	1,820	1,925	2,349
GDP per capita (EUR)	1,691	1,697	1,662	1,734	2,039
GDP (EUR bn)	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.2	7.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	9.4	4.8	-0.4	4.3	4.5
Unemployment Rate	4.1	3.5	4.2	3.8	3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.9	-1.9	-2.3	-2.1	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	29.6	36.0	44.8	42.1	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	-4.2	-9.2	18.3	14.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.2	4.7	13.6	2.4	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.6	5.1	9.7	6.5	6.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.50	6.50	19.50	9.00	6.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	13.06	15.61	19.70	19.92	17.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	17.88	18.88	21.39	20.95	20.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	16.70	18.57	20.75	21.99	20.79
Current Account (% of GDP)	-4.9	-5.3	-6.4	-4.0	-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.1	-3.0	-2.0	-2.0	-2.4
Exports (USD billion)	2.4	2.3	2.0	2.0	2.4
Imports (USD billion)	5.5	5.3	4.0	4.0	4.8
Exports (annual variation in %)	12.3	-3.6	-15.9	4.0	18.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.4	-3.2	-25.0	0.8	20.2
International Reserves (USD)	2.8	2.2	1.7	2.2	2.8
External Debt (% of GDP)	85.5	81.0	94.2	90.6	83.0

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Moldova Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	17.24	0.03 %	Mar 20
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Nov 26

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