Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

June 4, 2019

Available data suggests growth sped up in Q1. Exports rebounded in the quarter, with manufacturing goods leading the charge, despite a cooling global economy and trade upheaval. This, coupled with buoyant tourist arrivals in the period, should have strengthened the current account. At the same time, the domestic economy appears to be firing on all cylinders: Fixed investment in machinery and transport equipment surged, while faster credit expansion, solid real wage growth and strong remittance inflows—largely from Russia, Israel and Italy—likely continued to support private consumption. In the political arena, the prospect of a repeat election seems increasingly likely as negotiations to form a coalition government continue to falter, raising fears that vital reforms will be put on the backburner.

Moldova Economic Growth

Growth is set to weaken this year as a tighter fiscal stance constrains domestic demand, while protracted political deadlock continues to cloud the economic outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.4% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate18.130.03 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jun 13

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