Moldova Economic Outlook

February 11, 2020

Growth likely decelerated further in the fourth quarter of last year, after ebbing fixed investment dragged on the economy in the third quarter. Softening demand from the European Union appears to have taken its toll on the economy in Q4: Industrial production growth more than halved in October–November from Q3, amid weakness in the manufacturing and the utilities sectors, while merchandise export growth nearly stagnated in the same period. However, retail sales picked up in October–November and credit growth was solid in Q4, boding well for private consumption at year-end. Meanwhile, at the end of its Article IV consultation on 5 February, the IMF completed its sixth and final Extended Credit Facility and Extended Fund Facility review. The Fund commended authorities’ progress in streamlining the banking system but stressed the need to ratchet up public investment in order to develop vital infrastructure projects.

Moldova Economic Growth

Economic activity is expected to decelerate somewhat this year. That said, sustained public expenditure in the run-up to autumn’s presidential election will shore up growth, with upbeat industrial production further supporting the expansion. However, a renewed escalation of political tensions, coupled with easing demand from Russia and the EU, cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2021.

Moldova Economy Data

	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018
Population (million)	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5
GDP per capita (USD)	2,249	2,164	2,286	2,794	3,229
GDP per capita (EUR)	1,697	1,977	2,059	2,425	2,735
GDP (EUR bn)	6.0	7.0	7.3	8.6	9.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	5.0	-0.3	4.4	4.7	4.0
Unemployment Rate	3.5	4.2	3.8	3.3	2.9
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.7	-2.2	-1.9	-0.8	-0.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)	24.5	37.8	35.6	31.8	29.7
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	-4.2	18.3	14.3	10.0	8.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	4.7	13.6	2.4	7.3	0.9
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	5.1	9.7	6.4	6.6	3.0
Policy Interest Rate (%)	6.50	19.50	9.00	6.50	6.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	15.61	19.70	19.92	17.10	17.04
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	18.88	21.39	20.95	20.52	19.55
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	18.57	20.75	21.99	20.79	19.84
Current Account (% of GDP)	-7.1	-6.0	-3.5	-5.6	-10.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.6	-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.0	-2.1	-2.1	-2.6	-3.3
Exports (USD billion)	1.8	1.5	1.6	1.9	2.0
Imports (USD billion)	4.9	3.6	3.6	4.4	5.3
Exports (annual variation in %)	-4.3	-17.0	3.4	20.1	5.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	-3.6	-25.3	0.1	21.7	19.1
International Reserves (USD)	2.2	1.7	2.2	2.8	3.0
External Debt (% of GDP)	81.0	79.2	76.3	68.7	64.2

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Moldova Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	17.15	0.03 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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