Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

October 5, 2021

The economy expanded a significant 21.5% in annual terms in Q2, quickening from the 1.8% growth tallied in the prior quarter. The jump was attributed to strengthening domestic activity, amid accelerating household and capital spending growth. However, the external sector weighed on the headline reading to a larger extent than in Q1. Turning to Q3, available data suggests that economic activity hit a roadblock at the outset of the quarter. Industrial output growth slowed in July, as manufacturing production cooled and mining and quarrying output tumbled over the prior month. On top of this, retail sales slid for the first time in five months in July. This, coupled with tumbling remittances—which represent a large share of the country’s GDP—in July–August bodes ill for consumer spending.

Moldova Economic Growth

In 2021, the economy is seen returning to growth on the back of firming foreign and domestic demand. Next year, GDP is forecast to expand healthily, while the pace of recovery in Russia—one of the country’s main trading partners and a key source of remittances—and the progress of the domestic vaccination campaign are key factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 6.6% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Moldova Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,1642,2862,7943,2293,286
GDP per capita (EUR)1,9772,0592,4252,7353,025
GDP (EUR bn)7.07.38.69.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.34.44.74.33.6
Unemployment Rate4.23.83.32.94.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.9-0.8-0.9-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.835.631.829.727.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.314.310.08.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.62.47.30.97.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.76.46.63.14.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)19.509.006.506.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.7019.9217.1017.0417.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)21.3920.9520.5219.5519.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)20.7521.9920.7919.8419.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.0-3.5-6.1-10.6-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.1-2.6-3.3-3.3
Exports (USD billion)1.51.61.92.02.1
Imports (USD billion)3.63.64.45.35.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.13.419.85.87.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.30.121.719.13.0
International Reserves (USD)1.72.22.83.03.1
External Debt (% of GDP)79.276.368.764.264.2

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Moldova Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate17.150.03 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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