Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Recent data suggests economic growth in the final quarter overshot the third quarter’s marked upturn. Industrial output expanded at a stellar pace in November, albeit moderating slightly from October’s 18-month high. Average annual growth in industrial production in the first two months of the fourth quarter beat the previous quarter’s average. Exports rose 18.4% year-on-year in the January–November period, helping narrow the trade deficit in annual terms. Retail sales picked up in November as moderating inflationary pressures boosted households’ real purchasing power, and the contraction in credit eased throughout the quarter.

Moldova Economic Growth

Falling inflationary pressures should help prop up private consumption, which along with healthy remittance inflows and strong export growth, should help accelerate the economic recovery. However, tackling the banking sector’s bulk of non-performing loans and restoring private sector credit growth will be critical to improving the long-term economic picture. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2019.

Moldova Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,0312,2512,2471,8141,918
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6001,7321,6411,6521,728
GDP (EUR bn)5.76.25.85.96.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.79.44.6-0.54.1
Unemployment Rate5.94.13.54.23.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.423.730.138.538.1
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)23.529.2-4.218.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.15.24.713.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.74.65.19.76.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.506.5019.509.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.1213.0615.6119.7019.92
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)16.0017.8818.8821.3920.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)15.5616.7018.5720.7521.99
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.6-5.2-5.3-5.0-3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0
Exports (USD billion)2.22.42.32.02.0
Imports (USD billion)5.25.55.34.04.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.512.3-3.6-15.94.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.45.4-3.2-25.00.8
International Reserves (USD)2.52.82.21.72.2
External Debt (% of GDP)82.683.182.098.396.2

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate16.590.03 %Feb 20
Stock Market0.10.0 %Feb 20

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