Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

November 27, 2018

Growth likely remained firm in the third quarter, supported by a flourishing tourism sector. Moreover, retail sales grew at a slightly faster pace, on average, in Q3 compared to the previous quarter as moderating inflationary pressures boosted households’ purchasing power. Healthy remittance inflows also likely buoyed private consumption. A fall in export growth and a marked deterioration in the industrial sector, however, suggest the economy expanded at a more moderate pace in the third quarter compared to the second. On 20 November, Moldova’s Central Bank Governor Sergiu Cioclea resigned, citing that the country had returned to financial stability after enacting difficult reforms.

Moldova Economic Growth

The economy is expected to grow at a strong pace again next year thanks to healthy private consumption, supported by a tight labor market, robust remittance inflows and the country’s thriving tourism sector. However, a widening current account deficit poses downside risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.9% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate17.170.03 %Dec 12
Stock Market0.10.0 %Nov 26

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