Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

Recent figures point to recovering activity hitting a roadblock in Q3, after output plunged in Q2 as the Covid-19 fallout pummeled domestic demand and exports. Although the pace of contraction in industrial production eased from April’s nadir through July, it grew more severe in August as manufacturing activity, particularly in food processing, shrank markedly. Similarly, July’s rebound in retail sales was short-lived as they slumped back again in August, which, coupled with even slower bank lending in Q3 than in Q2, hints at demand struggling to gain traction. Lastly, the key agricultural sector, which accounts for about a tenth of output and a third of employment, languished in Q3 as crop production declined even more heavily than in Q2.

Moldova Economic Growth

The economy is poised to suffer its deepest downturn in over a decade this year owing to the impact of the pandemic, before growth returns in 2021 on the back of gradually recovering activity. Still-rising Covid-19 cases, which could prompt the reinstatement of restrictions, and the country’s chronic external imbalances cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.4% in 2021, which is up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2022.

Moldova Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,1642,2862,7943,2293,286
GDP per capita (EUR)1,9772,0592,4252,7353,025
GDP (EUR bn)7.07.38.69.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.34.44.74.33.6
Unemployment Rate4.23.83.32.94.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.9-0.8-0.9-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.835.631.829.727.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.314.310.08.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.62.47.30.97.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.76.46.63.14.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)19.509.006.506.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.7019.9217.1017.0417.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)21.3920.9520.5219.5519.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)20.7521.9920.7919.8419.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.0-3.5-6.1-10.6-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.1-2.6-3.3-3.3
Exports (USD billion)1.51.61.92.02.1
Imports (USD billion)3.63.64.45.35.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.13.419.85.87.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.30.121.719.13.0
International Reserves (USD)1.72.22.83.03.1
External Debt (% of GDP)79.276.368.764.264.2

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Moldova Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate17.150.03 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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