Moldova Economic Outlook

January 8, 2019

A faltering external sector and subdued household spending dragged on GDP in the third quarter. On the upside, gross fixed investment soared in the same period due to a booming construction sector. However, robust domestic dynamics, coupled with higher oil prices, propelled imports, prompting the external sector to detract from overall economic growth in Q3. In the political arena, the country is heading to a crucial parliamentary election on 24 February. Recent polls suggest that the opposition pro-Russian Party of Socialists of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) has a comfortable lead over the other parties, although it is still unclear whether the PSRM will be able to form a government.

Moldova Economic Growth

This year, the economy is expected to expand at a similar pace as in 2018 on the back of robust domestic dynamics. The February parliamentary elections, however, risk fueling political instability. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.9% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2020.

Moldova Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.5
GDP per capita (USD)	2,252	2,249	1,820	1,925	2,349
GDP per capita (EUR)	1,691	1,697	1,662	1,734	2,039
GDP (EUR bn)	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.2	7.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	9.4	4.8	-0.4	4.3	4.5
Unemployment Rate	4.1	3.5	4.2	3.8	3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.9	-1.9	-2.3	-2.1	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	29.6	36.0	44.8	42.1	-
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	-4.2	-9.2	18.3	14.1	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.2	4.7	13.6	2.4	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.6	5.1	9.7	6.5	6.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.50	6.50	19.50	9.00	6.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	13.06	15.61	19.70	19.92	17.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	17.88	18.88	21.39	20.95	20.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	16.70	18.57	20.75	21.99	20.79
Current Account (% of GDP)	-4.9	-5.3	-6.4	-4.0	-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.4	-0.4	-0.4	-0.3	-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.1	-3.0	-2.0	-2.0	-2.4
Exports (USD billion)	2.4	2.3	2.0	2.0	2.4
Imports (USD billion)	5.5	5.3	4.0	4.0	4.8
Exports (annual variation in %)	12.3	-3.6	-15.9	4.0	18.6
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.4	-3.2	-25.0	0.8	20.2
International Reserves (USD)	2.8	2.2	1.7	2.2	2.8
External Debt (% of GDP)	85.5	81.0	94.2	90.6	83.0

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Moldova Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	17.16	0.03 %	Jan 16
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Nov 26

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