Moldova Economic Outlook

October 1, 2019

The economy grew 5.8% on an annual basis in the second quarter, marking the highest reading in one-and-a-half years (Q1: +4.4% year-on-year) according to official data. Notably, fixed investment soared on the back of buoyant construction activity, while household spending edged up modestly amid higher inflation. Exports, meanwhile, halved in Q2 on muted good shipments. Turning to the third quarter, available data presents a mixed bag. On the one hand, industrial production rebounded in January–July thanks to a recovery in manufacturing, while merchandise exports picked up, despite lackluster European demand. On the other hand, retail sales contracted in the same period, amid intensifying price pressures, signaling souring consumption at Q3’s outset.

Moldova Economic Growth

Growth is projected to decelerate this year on moderating domestic demand. Next year growth is seen stable, supported by healthy public expenditure as ongoing amendments to the tax code boost government revenue. Renewed escalation of political tensions and spillover from regional and global trade tension pose risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.8% in 2019 and 3.8% again in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast.

Moldova Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.6	3.5
GDP per capita (USD)	2,252	2,249	1,820	1,925	2,761
GDP per capita (EUR)	1,691	1,697	1,662	1,734	2,397
GDP (EUR bn)	6.0	6.0	5.9	6.2	8.5
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	9.0	5.0	-0.3	4.4	4.7
Unemployment Rate	4.1	3.5	4.2	3.8	3.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-1.7	-1.7	-2.2	-1.9	-0.8
Public Debt (% of GDP)	23.4	24.5	27.3	37.5	28.9
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	29.2	-4.2	-9.2	18.3	14.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	5.2	4.7	13.6	2.4	7.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.6	5.1	9.7	6.4	6.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.50	6.50	19.50	9.00	6.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	13.06	15.61	19.70	19.92	17.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	17.88	18.88	21.39	20.95	20.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	16.70	18.57	20.75	21.99	20.79
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.1	-7.1	-7.2	-4.2	-5.7
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.6	-0.5	-0.3	-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-3.1	-3.0	-2.1	-2.1	-2.6
Exports (USD billion)	1.9	1.8	1.5	1.5	1.9
Imports (USD billion)	5.0	4.9	3.6	3.6	4.4
Exports (annual variation in %)	12.5	-4.3	-17.0	2.7	20.0
Imports (annual variation in %)	5.9	-3.6	-25.3	0.1	21.8
International Reserves (USD)	2.8	2.2	1.7	2.2	2.8
External Debt (% of GDP)	85.5	81.0	94.2	90.6	69.5

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Moldova Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	17.82	0.03 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Sep 04

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