Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

January 11, 2022

GDP expanded at a softer pace of 8.3% year-on-year in Q3 (Q2: +21.5% yoy), as the industrial sector lost steam amid faltering construction activity. Moreover, retail sales growth ground to a near halt in the quarter, showing a slowdown in private spending growth despite improving labor market conditions. Turning to Q4, available data paints a mixed picture: While decelerating industrial activity and yet another contraction in retail sales in October point to softer domestic demand, sustained export growth bodes well for the external sector. In other news, on 21 December the IMF approved a USD 558.3 million aid package for Moldova, while on 4 January, the European Commission proposed a new macro-financial assistance operation of up to EUR 150 million, cementing Moldova’s pro-Western path.

Moldova Economic Growth

GDP growth is expected to nearly half in 2022, following last year’s sturdy rebound. That said, economic momentum should remain solid this year, aided by looser Covid-19 restrictions which should underpin healthy domestic demand growth. Moreover, vaccination progress in key trading partners bodes well for export demand and remittance inflows. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 4.5% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.0% in 2023.

Moldova Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)3.63.63.53.53.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,1642,2862,7943,2293,286
GDP per capita (EUR)1,9772,0592,4252,7353,025
GDP (EUR bn)7.07.38.69.710.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.34.44.74.33.6
Unemployment Rate4.23.83.32.94.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-1.9-0.8-0.9-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)37.835.631.829.727.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)18.314.310.08.2-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)13.62.47.30.97.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)9.76.46.63.14.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)19.509.006.506.505.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)19.7019.9217.1017.0417.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)21.3920.9520.5219.5519.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)20.7521.9920.7919.8419.61
Current Account (% of GDP)-6.0-3.5-6.1-10.6-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.3-0.6-1.2-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)-2.1-2.1-2.6-3.3-3.3
Exports (USD billion)1.51.61.92.02.1
Imports (USD billion)3.63.64.45.35.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-17.13.419.85.87.1
Imports (annual variation in %)-25.30.121.719.13.0
International Reserves (USD)1.72.22.83.03.1
External Debt (% of GDP)79.276.368.764.264.2

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Moldova Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate17.150.03 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jan 07

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