Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Recent data signals that economic growth was strong at the end of the third quarter. In September, industrial activity accelerated in annual terms from August. The electricity, heat, gas, hot water and air conditioning supply sector grew at almost double the pace, which together with higher growth in manufacturing output, more than offset a sharp contraction in mining and quarrying. Tourism services were up markedly in annual terms in the January–September period. On the other hand, retail trade, excluding trade of motor vehicles and motorcycles, dipped in September. The economy remains on track under the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility, having beaten revenue targets and maintained financial stability thus far.

Moldova Economic Growth

November 28, 2017

Trade with Russia and the Euro area is expected to increase, which should bolster growth in exports and boost remittances. Forthcoming negotiations over the breakaway region of Transnistria will indicate whether downside risks stemming from the long-standing dispute will persist. FocusEconomics panelists project the economy will grow 3.9% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.2% in 2019.

Moldova Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.6
GDP per capita (USD)2,0312,2512,2471,8141,918
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6001,7321,6411,6521,728
GDP (EUR bn)5.76.25.85.96.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)-0.79.44.6-0.54.1
Unemployment Rate5.94.13.54.23.8
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.3-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)24.423.730.138.538.1
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)23.529.2-4.218.3-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)4.15.24.713.62.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.74.65.19.76.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.503.506.5019.509.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)12.1213.0615.6119.7019.92
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)16.0017.8818.8821.3920.95
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)15.5616.7018.5720.7521.99
Current Account (% of GDP)-7.6-5.2-5.3-5.0-3.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0
Exports (USD billion)2.22.42.32.02.0
Imports (USD billion)5.25.55.34.04.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-2.512.3-3.6-15.94.0
Imports (annual variation in %)0.45.4-3.2-25.00.8
International Reserves (USD)2.52.82.21.72.2
External Debt (% of GDP)82.683.182.098.396.2

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate17.220.03 %Dec 06
Stock Market0.10.0 %Dec 06

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