Moldova Economic Outlook

September 8, 2020

The economy likely languished in the second quarter as it felt the full brunt of Covid-19 containment measures. Industrial production collapsed at the sharpest pace since the height of the 2009 global financial crisis in Q2, as did merchandise exports as lockdowns abroad pummeled demand. Moreover, retail sales crashed by nearly a quarter in the same period as businesses suspended activity, which, coupled with a sharp slowdown in bank lending, hints that domestic demand was squeezed. That said, despite plunging in April, remittances surged in both May and June, likely cushioning the blow to private consumption somewhat. Turning to the third quarter, the state of emergency was extended again to 15 September from 31 August, which could hamper a sound recovery in activity since some restrictions remain in place.

Moldova Economic Growth

The Covid-19 fallout will plunge the economy into recession this year as activity takes a hit from multiple fronts. Household spending should contract on rising unemployment, although resilient remittances should help to mitigate income losses. Meanwhile, business investment will shrink on elevated uncertainty, and exports will derail amid the global recession. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP contracting 4.8% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, they project it to expand 3.9%.

Moldova Economy Data

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Population (million)	3.6	3.6	3.5	3.5	3.5
GDP per capita (USD)	2,164	2,286	2,794	3,229	3,286
GDP per capita (EUR)	1,977	2,059	2,425	2,735	3,025
GDP (EUR bn)	7.0	7.3	8.6	9.7	10.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	-0.3	4.4	4.7	4.3	3.6
Unemployment Rate	4.2	3.8	3.3	2.9	4.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.2	-1.9	-0.8	-0.9	-1.4
Public Debt (% of GDP)	37.8	35.6	31.8	29.7	27.3
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)	18.3	14.3	10.0	8.2	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)	13.6	2.4	7.3	0.9	7.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	9.7	6.4	6.6	3.1	4.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)	19.50	9.00	6.50	6.50	5.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	19.70	19.92	17.10	17.04	17.15
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)	21.39	20.95	20.52	19.55	19.23
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)	20.75	21.99	20.79	19.84	19.61
Current Account (% of GDP)	-6.0	-3.5	-6.1	-10.6	-10.1
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.5	-0.3	-0.6	-1.2	-1.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)	-2.1	-2.1	-2.6	-3.3	-3.3
Exports (USD billion)	1.5	1.6	1.9	2.0	2.1
Imports (USD billion)	3.6	3.6	4.4	5.3	5.4
Exports (annual variation in %)	-17.1	3.4	19.8	5.8	7.1
Imports (annual variation in %)	-25.3	0.1	21.7	19.1	3.0
International Reserves (USD)	1.7	2.2	2.8	3.0	3.1
External Debt (% of GDP)	79.2	76.3	68.7	64.2	64.2

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Moldova Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	17.15	0.03 %	Jan 01
Stock Market	0.1	0.0 %	Jan 07

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