Moldova Economic Forecast

Moldova Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

The economy lost traction in the first quarter, with annual GDP growth slowing to 3.7% from 6.4% in the previous quarter. Growth in Q1 was underpinned primarily by a surge in household consumption, thanks to a strong upturn in average real incomes and easing credit conditions amid subdued inflation. Fixed investment also rose at a strong pace. Moreover, exports continued to climb more rapidly than imports. Meanwhile, data for the outset of Q2 was upbeat and suggests that the economy picked up speed: Industrial production and retail sales surged in April, while exports grew at twice the pace of imports in the month.

Moldova Economic Growth

Growth should remain resilient on the back of a healthy expansion in private consumption, supported by high remittance inflows and moderating inflationary pressures. Risks to the outlook continue to stem from the large volume of non-performing loans in the banking system, although reforms are underway to revamp the sector. FocusEconomics panelists see GDP growing 3.8% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 3.9% in 2019.

Moldova Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)3.63.63.63.63.5
GDP per capita (USD)2,2522,2491,8201,9252,349
GDP per capita (EUR)1,6911,6971,6621,7342,039
GDP (EUR bn)6.06.05.96.27.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.44.8-0.44.34.5
Unemployment Rate4.13.54.23.83.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-1.9-1.9-2.3-2.1-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)29.636.044.842.1-  
Money (annual variation of M2 in %)-4.2-9.218.314.1-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %, eop)5.24.713.62.4-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.65.19.76.56.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.506.5019.509.006.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)13.0615.6119.7019.9217.10
Exchange Rate (vs EUR)17.8818.8821.3920.9520.52
Exchange Rate (vs EUR, aop)16.7018.5720.7521.9920.79
Current Account (% of GDP)-4.9-5.3-6.4-4.0-7.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.6
Trade Balance (USD billion)-3.1-3.0-2.0-2.0-2.4
Exports (USD billion)2.42.32.02.02.4
Imports (USD billion)5.55.34.04.04.8
Exports (annual variation in %)12.3-3.6-15.94.018.6
Imports (annual variation in %)5.4-3.2-25.00.820.2
International Reserves (USD)2.82.21.72.22.8
External Debt (% of GDP)85.581.094.290.683.0

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Moldova Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate16.700.03 %Jul 13
Stock Market0.10.0 %Jul 13

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