Jordan Economic Forecast

Jordan Economic Outlook

May 7, 2019

The economy appears to be on the cusp of a turnaround after years of sluggish growth. In February, annual industrial output increased for the first time in nearly one-and-a-half years. This was due to greater manufacturing and electricity output, while quarrying production fell. Moreover, in January–February, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed compared to the same period a year earlier, as exports increased and imports fell. Exports rose on the back of increased clothing shipments, while imports decreased on a fall in oil purchases. Meanwhile, on 5 May, the government announced it has requested a new program with the IMF to support the country’s economic development. It also requested an extension of six months to the current program, which is set to end this summer, until a new arrangement is found.

Jordan Economic Growth

This year, the economy is likely to gather speed thanks to improved trading links with Iraq and Syria; greater gas supplies from neighboring countries, particularly Egypt, which should lower electricity costs; and strong tourism activity. Fiscal consolidation and possible tighter monetary policy, however, pose downside risks to growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.

Jordan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.56.76.87.07.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1455,3675,4985,5415,619
GDP (USD bn)33.635.837.538.740.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.12.42.02.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.61.70.9-2.1-0.7
Unemployment Rate12.611.913.115.318.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.3-3.5-3.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.789.093.495.195.3
Money (annual variation in %)9.76.98.14.00.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.82.9-0.9-0.83.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.253.753.755.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.710.710.710.710.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.4-7.3-9.1-9.6-10.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.5-2.6-3.4-3.7-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.7-12.0-10.3-9.6-10.7
Exports (USD billion)7.98.47.87.67.5
Imports (USD billion)19.620.418.217.218.1
Exports (annual variation in %)0.26.0-6.6-3.7-1.1
Imports (annual variation in %)6.04.0-10.7-5.75.7
International Reserves (USD)12.014.114.212.912.3
External Debt (% of GDP)69.067.868.670.2-  

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Jordan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.710.0 %Jan 31
Stock Market3,6120.08 %May 13

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