Jordan Economic Outlook
October 5, 2021The recovery seemingly firmed in the second quarter: Industrial production bounced back and expanded 52% in annual terms—the strongest rate since at least Q1 2003—likely supported by the easing of restrictions. Momentum seemingly carried over into Q3, as industrial output continued to grow robustly year-on-year in July, although the pace of expansion softened due to a less favorable base effect. Additionally, thanks to plunging daily infection rates and an accelerating vaccination drive, authorities rolled out phases two and three of the economic reopening plan on 1 July and 1 September, respectively, likely further supporting activity in the quarter. In other news, on 29 September the government announced it was fully reopening the main border crossing to Syria, in a bid to boost trade to the levels seen before the pandemic and the Syrian civil war.
Jordan Economic GrowthEconomic growth is projected to return this year, as the gradual lifting of restrictions globally boosts trade and tourism levels. The reading will be supported by a low base effect, however. Meanwhile, GDP growth should accelerate in 2022, although high public debt stocks, a large fiscal deficit and regional tensions all cloud the outlook. Our panelists foresee GDP expanding 2.2% in 2021 and 2.8% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,140||4,145||4,196||4,264||4,350|
|GDP (USD bn)||37.9||39.2||40.7||42.2||43.8|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.6||2.1||2.1||1.9||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||0.9||-2.1||-0.7||-6.1||-5.5|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-3.4||-3.2||-2.6||-2.4||-3.4|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||92.4||93.8||94.3||94.4||96.6|
|Money (annual variation in %)||8.1||4.0||0.2||1.2||4.8|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||-0.9||-0.8||3.3||4.5||0.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||3.75||3.75||5.00||5.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-9.2||-9.8||-10.8||-7.0||-2.8|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-3.9||-4.4||-3.0||-1.2|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-12.6||-11.8||-13.0||-12.6||-11.0|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.8||7.5||7.5||7.8||8.3|
|Imports (USD billion)||20.5||19.3||20.5||20.3||19.3|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-6.6||-3.6||-0.5||3.2||7.3|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||-10.7||-5.6||6.1||-1.0||-4.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||15.2||14.0||13.5||12.7||13.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||67.9||69.5||74.1||75.9||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Nov 30|
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