Jordan Economic Outlook
May 10, 2022
After rising above its pre-pandemic level last year, the economy should have continued to improve in Q1 2022: In annual terms, industrial output grew in January–February, while merchandise export growth picked up in the first two months of 2022. However, despite expanding, industrial production grew on average at the slowest pace in a year. Meanwhile, a still-elevated unemployment rate—which was nearly 25% of the total labor force at the end of 2021—likely dampened consumption. Finally, rising commodity prices caused import growth to swell in January–February. Going into Q2, the removal of more Covid-19 restrictions in late March bodes well for activity and the all-important tourism sector, which will also benefit from the unveiling of a visa in April for entrepreneurs, investors and tourists. In other news, Saudi Arabia disbursed USD 50 million in April to help the financing of Jordan’s budget.Jordan Economic Growth
GDP growth is seen accelerating slightly this year, bolstered by the removal of Covid-19 restrictions—mainly on traveling—which should aid the all-important tourism industry. That said, higher inflation and a high unemployment rate could weigh on spending and stoke social tensions. Elevated sovereign debt levels and regional geopolitics pose additional risks. Our panelists foresee GDP expanding 2.5% in 2022, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.8% in 2023.Jordan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,140 | 4,145 | 4,196 | 4,264 | 4,350 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 37.9 | 39.2 | 40.7 | 42.2 | 43.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 |
| Unemployment Rate | 13.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 19.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 92.4 | 93.8 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 96.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -12.6 | -11.8 | -13.0 | -12.6 | -11.0 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -6.6 | -3.6 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.7 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.2 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 69.5 | 74.1 | 75.9 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
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