Jordan Economic Forecast

Jordan Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

The economy has floundered so far this year, while the government has had a hard time balancing the books. In Q1, GDP grew 1.9% compared to the same quarter in 2017. Although this growth represents a small acceleration from Q4 2017, it was still very weak by historical standards. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit expanded by over 150% year-on-year in the January-to-April period. This underlines the urgency facing Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz, whose cabinet colleagues were officially appointed on 14 June, in improving the government finances. Al-Razzaz, who has postponed the tax hikes that caused strong public opposition to his predecessor, received a lifeline in recent weeks as several countries and organizations offered financial assistance to Jordan.

Jordan Economic Growth

Despite the weak start to the year, the economy is expected to benefit from a pick-up in exports this year, as well as increased remittance inflows and tourism activity. However, fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy will dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2019.

Jordan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)6.56.76.87.07.1
GDP per capita (USD)5,1455,3675,4985,5415,619
GDP (USD bn)33.635.837.538.740.1
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.12.42.02.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.61.70.9-2.1-0.7
Unemployment Rate12.611.913.115.318.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.3-3.5-3.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.789.093.495.195.3
Money (annual variation in %)9.76.98.14.00.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.82.9-0.9-0.83.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.253.753.755.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.710.710.710.710.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.4-7.3-9.1-9.6-10.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.5-2.6-3.4-3.7-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-11.7-12.0-10.3-9.6-10.7
Exports (USD billion)7.98.47.87.67.5
Imports (USD billion)19.620.418.217.218.1
Exports (annual variation in %)0.26.0-6.6-3.7-1.1
Imports (annual variation in %)6.04.0-10.7-5.75.7
International Reserves (USD)12.014.114.212.912.3
External Debt (% of GDP)69.067.868.670.2-  

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Jordan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.710.0 %Jun 30
Stock Market3,9840.08 %Jul 17

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