Jordan Economic Outlook
November 26, 2019Economic activity was likely muted in the third quarter, following a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. Industrial production decreased sharply in September, marking the largest annual contraction in output since 2003, and came after notable declines in July and August. More positively however, trade figures for January–August showed strong export growth, likely linked to improved trading conditions with neighboring Iraq. On the political front, a major government reshuffle preceded the announcement of a second raft of measures aimed at stimulating the economy, in line with the IMF-agreed program. Job creation—around a fifth of the workforce is unemployed; strengthening government finances; and reducing the cost of doing business are key aims of the measures.
Jordan Economic GrowthEconomic growth is projected to accelerate in 2020, driven by improved trade activity with Iraq and the government’s reform efforts. However, continued geopolitical instability, a large external deficit and problematic government finances present major risks. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2021.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,993||4,067||4,096||4,145||4,196|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||39.2||40.7|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.3||3.4||2.6||2.1||2.1|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||92.4||93.8||94.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-10.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.4||-10.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-14.2||-14.5||-12.6||-11.8||-13.0|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.5||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||22.1||22.9||20.5||19.3||20.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.3||6.0||-6.6||-3.6||-0.5|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.3||3.9||-10.7||-5.6||6.1|
|International Reserves (USD)||13.2||15.3||15.2||14.0||13.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||69.5||73.8|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Oct 31|
|Stock Market||3,470||0.08 %||Nov 21|
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