Jordan Economic Outlook
July 3, 2018The economy has floundered so far this year, while the government has had a hard time balancing the books. In Q1, GDP grew 1.9% compared to the same quarter in 2017. Although this growth represents a small acceleration from Q4 2017, it was still very weak by historical standards. Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit expanded by over 150% year-on-year in the January-to-April period. This underlines the urgency facing Prime Minister Omar al-Razzaz, whose cabinet colleagues were officially appointed on 14 June, in improving the government finances. Al-Razzaz, who has postponed the tax hikes that caused strong public opposition to his predecessor, received a lifeline in recent weeks as several countries and organizations offered financial assistance to Jordan.
Jordan Economic GrowthDespite the weak start to the year, the economy is expected to benefit from a pick-up in exports this year, as well as increased remittance inflows and tourism activity. However, fiscal consolidation and tighter monetary policy will dampen prospects. Our panelists expect GDP to grow 2.5% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2019.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||5,145||5,367||5,498||5,541||5,619|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7||40.1|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1||95.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.3|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-10.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.6||-10.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-11.7||-12.0||-10.3||-9.6||-10.7|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.6||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.2||18.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-3.7||-1.1|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.0||4.0||-10.7||-5.7||5.7|
|International Reserves (USD)||12.0||14.1||14.2||12.9||12.3|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||70.2||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Jun 30|
|Stock Market||3,984||0.08 %||Jul 17|
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