Jordan Economic Outlook
October 6, 2020
The economy contracted 3.6% in annual terms in the second quarter, after growth slowed to 1.3% in Q1, as the pandemic took its toll on activity. The unemployment rate in Q2 increased notably, reaching an over 10-year high and likely dragging on private consumption, while the external sector was badly hit due to restrictions imposed at home and abroad. Both exports and imports shrank considerably in January-July compared to the same period last year, likely reflecting a contraction in Q2. However, the trade deficit narrowed during the same period. Turning to Q3, activity should have recovered somewhat. Commercial flights resumed in early September—a positive sign for tourism—although some restrictions were reimposed in mid-September to control a spike in Covid-19 cases.Jordan Economic Growth
The economy will contract notably this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, although international aid should support activity somewhat. GDP is expected to rebound in 2021 as the domestic economy reopens. That said, the pace of recovery also depends closely on the improvement of global demand and activity in key trading partners. Our panelists foresee GDP contracting 4.8% this year before expanding 3.7% in 2021, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.Jordan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,140 | 4,145 | 4,196 | 4,264 | 4,350 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 37.9 | 39.2 | 40.7 | 42.2 | 43.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 |
| Unemployment Rate | 13.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 19.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 92.4 | 93.8 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 96.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -12.6 | -11.8 | -13.0 | -12.6 | -11.0 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -6.6 | -3.6 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.7 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.2 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 69.5 | 74.1 | 75.9 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
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