Jordan Economic Outlook
November 3, 2020
The economy likely remained downbeat in Q3 and at the outset of Q4, after contracting in Q2 due to the pandemic and associated containment measures. Although international travel resumed towards the end of the third quarter and restaurants reopened for dine-in services in early October, a surge in Covid-19 cases prompted authorities to implement further containment measures later in the month, including partial lockdowns, school closures and curfews, boding ill for activity. In other news, in early October, Jordan and Israel struck a deal allowing flights to pass through Israeli airspace, which could bolster tourism and trade going forward. On the political front, on 7 October King Abdullah appointed Bisher al-Khasawneh as the new prime minister, who will oversee the upcoming 10 November parliamentary elections.Jordan Economic Growth
The economy is expected to grow in 2021, after this year’s contraction due to the health crisis, although uncertainty over the evolution of Covid-19 lingers. Downside risks stem from a potentially prolonged pandemic, a higher unemployment rate and possible social unrest. Our panelists foresee GDP expanding 3.3% in 2021, which is down 0.4 percentage points from last month’s projection, and 2.7% in 2022.Jordan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,140 | 4,145 | 4,196 | 4,264 | 4,350 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 37.9 | 39.2 | 40.7 | 42.2 | 43.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 |
| Unemployment Rate | 13.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 19.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 92.4 | 93.8 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 96.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -12.6 | -11.8 | -13.0 | -12.6 | -11.0 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -6.6 | -3.6 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.7 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.2 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 69.5 | 74.1 | 75.9 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
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