Jordan Economic Outlook
March 5, 2019
The economy likely grew at a broadly steady pace in 2018, underpinned by the re-opening of the border with Iraq and the launch of new low-cost European airline routes to Jordan, supporting tourism. However, external financing conditions were poor last year. Turning to 2019, the signing of a trade agreement with Iraq in February—which will see oil deliveries resume from Iraq and lower tariffs on Jordanian exports—should further support the external sector. Meanwhile, the IMF and Jordan agreed to keep the fiscal deficit on a downward path on 7 February and, following a major international donor conference in London on 28 February, Jordan received over USD 2 billion in financial assistance pledges.Jordan Economic Growth
Increased tourism activity, improved trading routes with Iraq and Syria, and greater gas supplies from abroad, particularly Egypt and Iraq, should underpin economic growth in 2019. However, fiscal consolidation and possible tighter monetary policy represent downside risks to growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.Jordan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,145 | 5,367 | 5,498 | 5,541 | 5,619 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 33.6 | 35.8 | 37.5 | 38.7 | 40.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | 12.6 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.5 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 86.7 | 89.0 | 93.4 | 95.1 | 95.3 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 9.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.8 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.4 | -7.3 | -9.1 | -9.6 | -10.6 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -2.6 | -3.4 | -3.7 | -4.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -11.7 | -12.0 | -10.3 | -9.6 | -10.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 19.6 | 20.4 | 18.2 | 17.2 | 18.1 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 0.2 | 6.0 | -6.6 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 4.0 | -10.7 | -5.7 | 5.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 12.0 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 12.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 69.0 | 67.8 | 68.6 | 70.2 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Jan 31 |
| Stock Market | 3,928 | 0.08 % | Mar 08 |
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