Jordan Economic Outlook
November 27, 2018
The economy remains weak in 2018. Industrial production in January–September decreased compared to the same period a year earlier, primarily due to a shrinking manufacturing industry. Furthermore, although the merchandise trade deficit narrowed in January–September, this was largely due to fewer imports of machines and machinery parts, which also masked a substantial increase in oil imports on the back of higher prices. More positively, the first Ryanair flight landed in Jordan on 30 October, highlighting a growing trend of low-cost European airlines expanding operations to the country. Meanwhile, on 18 November, the lower house of parliament approved long-awaited income tax hikes. The IMF-backed bill should help reduce the fiscal deficit going forward, although it still requires the approval of the upper house.Jordan Economic Growth
Economic growth should accelerate next year thanks to increased tourism activity and the re-opening of a key border crossing between Syria and Jordan for trade. Fiscal consolidation and tight monetary policy dampen prospects, however. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.5% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.Jordan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,145 | 5,367 | 5,498 | 5,541 | 5,619 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 33.6 | 35.8 | 37.5 | 38.7 | 40.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | 12.6 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.5 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 86.7 | 89.0 | 93.4 | 95.1 | 95.3 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 9.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.8 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.4 | -7.3 | -9.1 | -9.6 | -10.6 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -2.6 | -3.4 | -3.7 | -4.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -11.7 | -12.0 | -10.3 | -9.6 | -10.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 19.6 | 20.4 | 18.2 | 17.2 | 18.1 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 0.2 | 6.0 | -6.6 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 4.0 | -10.7 | -5.7 | 5.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 12.0 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 12.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 69.0 | 67.8 | 68.6 | 70.2 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Oct 31 |
| Stock Market | 3,622 | 0.08 % | Dec 12 |
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