Jordan Economic Outlook
May 7, 2019
The economy appears to be on the cusp of a turnaround after years of sluggish growth. In February, annual industrial output increased for the first time in nearly one-and-a-half years. This was due to greater manufacturing and electricity output, while quarrying production fell. Moreover, in January–February, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed compared to the same period a year earlier, as exports increased and imports fell. Exports rose on the back of increased clothing shipments, while imports decreased on a fall in oil purchases. Meanwhile, on 5 May, the government announced it has requested a new program with the IMF to support the country’s economic development. It also requested an extension of six months to the current program, which is set to end this summer, until a new arrangement is found.Jordan Economic Growth
This year, the economy is likely to gather speed thanks to improved trading links with Iraq and Syria; greater gas supplies from neighboring countries, particularly Egypt, which should lower electricity costs; and strong tourism activity. Fiscal consolidation and possible tighter monetary policy, however, pose downside risks to growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.4% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.Jordan Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 6.5 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 5,145 | 5,367 | 5,498 | 5,541 | 5,619 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 33.6 | 35.8 | 37.5 | 38.7 | 40.1 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 |
| Unemployment Rate | 12.6 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 15.3 | 18.3 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -5.5 | -2.3 | -3.5 | -3.2 | -2.6 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 86.7 | 89.0 | 93.4 | 95.1 | 95.3 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 9.7 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 4.8 | 2.9 | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 4.50 | 4.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -10.4 | -7.3 | -9.1 | -9.6 | -10.6 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -2.6 | -3.4 | -3.7 | -4.3 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -11.7 | -12.0 | -10.3 | -9.6 | -10.7 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.9 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 19.6 | 20.4 | 18.2 | 17.2 | 18.1 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 0.2 | 6.0 | -6.6 | -3.7 | -1.1 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 6.0 | 4.0 | -10.7 | -5.7 | 5.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 12.0 | 14.1 | 14.2 | 12.9 | 12.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 69.0 | 67.8 | 68.6 | 70.2 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Jan 31 |
| Stock Market | 3,612 | 0.08 % | May 13 |
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