Jordan Economic Outlook
February 6, 2018Against a backdrop of regional conflict and high public debt, the sluggish economy has performed resiliently in recent months. The agricultural and financial sectors helped the economy expand 1.9% in the third quarter last year compared to the same quarter a year earlier, slightly down from 2.0% year-on-year growth in the second quarter. Data for more recent months points to a mixed fourth quarter: Annual growth in industrial production accelerated in November compared to October; however, the trade balance worsened in the January–November period. Meanwhile, on 15 January, the government pushed ahead with a package of tax reforms, including an increase in the general sales tax to 10% for many items, and a removal of numerous exemptions. However, the move fell short of the IMF’s recommendations.
Jordan Economic GrowthThis year, economic growth should pick up thanks to improved exports, remittances and tourism activity. However, ongoing fiscal consolidation will weigh on growth. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect GDP growth of 2.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.9% in 2019.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||4,423||4,656||4,831||5,498||5,541|
|GDP (USD bn)||30.9||33.6||35.8||37.5||38.7|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.7||2.8||3.1||2.4||2.0|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||0.2||1.6||1.7||0.9||-1.4|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-8.3||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||80.2||86.7||89.0||93.4||95.1|
|Money (annual variation in %)||-5.1||16.3||9.0||8.6||2.1|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.5||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||5.00||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-15.3||-10.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.3|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-4.7||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.6|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-10.6||-11.7||-12.0||-10.3||-9.5|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||18.5||19.6||20.4||18.2||17.1|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||-1.4||0.2||6.0||-6.6||-4.2|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||9.6||6.0||4.0||-10.7||-6.3|
|International Reserves (USD)||8.1||13.2||15.3||15.2||14.0|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||59.7||69.0||67.8||68.6||-|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Nov 30|
|Stock Market||4,239||0.08 %||Feb 14|
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