Jordan Economic Outlook
June 7, 2022
Economic activity growth should have eased in Q1 2022, but momentum likely accelerated towards the end of the period. Annual industrial output expanded at a slower pace in Q1. That said, growth accelerated to a 10-month high in March, largely thanks to the manufacturing sector’s performance. Meanwhile, private spending should have been in a tough spot so far this year. The over 20% unemployment rate is likely dampening consumption. This, coupled with mounting price pressures through April—when inflation hit an over three-year high—should be restraining demand further. More positively, tourism numbers have started to pick up, and tourism revenues skyrocketed 251% year on year in Q1. The scrapping of more Covid-19 restrictions in late March should add further impetus to activity ahead.Jordan Economic Growth
This year, growth is set to accelerate mildly from 2021’s rebound. The removal of Covid-19 restrictions will further spur the recovery of the all-important tourism industry. That said, domestic consumption should be restrained by tighter monetary policy, higher inflation and an elevated unemployment rate. This could also stoke social tensions, boding ill for economic stability. Our panelists foresee GDP expanding 2.5% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s projection, and 2.7% in 2023.Jordan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,140 | 4,145 | 4,196 | 4,264 | 4,350 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 37.9 | 39.2 | 40.7 | 42.2 | 43.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 |
| Unemployment Rate | 13.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 19.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 92.4 | 93.8 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 96.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -12.6 | -11.8 | -13.0 | -12.6 | -11.0 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -6.6 | -3.6 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.7 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.2 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 69.5 | 74.1 | 75.9 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
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