Jordan Economic Outlook
July 7, 2020
The economy will have slumped in H1 due to the pandemic and associated containment measures. The unemployment rate jumped to 19.3% in Q1, an over one-decade high, and will have risen even higher in Q2, weighing on private consumption. Furthermore, the government likely curbed its spending in H1 to help bring its worsening finances under control. More positively for H2, however, Jordan has benefited from multilateral support in recent weeks, including USD 396 million from the IMF on 20 May and USD 374 million from the World Bank on 25 June, which in turn appears to be helping the government in the debt markets; Amman successfully issued USD 1.8 billion in Eurobonds on 30 June. This, coupled with easing containment measures in recent weeks, suggests the government will not slash spending dramatically in H2 and the economy will begin to slowly recover if the coronavirus remains contained.Jordan Economic Growth
The economy is set to contract this year due to the Covid-19 pandemic, with the biggest hit to activity likely in H1. The downturn is set to be broad-based, with consumption, investment and exports all suffering. However, targeted fiscal support and looser monetary policy stimulus should aid the recovery. Our panelists project GDP to decrease 4.1% this year, which is down 1.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, before increasing 3.1% in 2021.Jordan Economy Data
| 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 9.2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 10.1 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 4,140 | 4,145 | 4,196 | 4,264 | 4,350 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 37.9 | 39.2 | 40.7 | 42.2 | 43.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 2.6 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Industrial Production (annual variation in %) | 0.9 | -2.1 | -0.7 | -6.1 | -5.5 |
| Unemployment Rate | 13.0 | 15.3 | 18.3 | 18.6 | 19.1 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.4 | -3.2 | -2.6 | -2.4 | -3.4 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 92.4 | 93.8 | 94.3 | 94.4 | 96.6 |
| Money (annual variation in %) | 8.1 | 4.0 | 0.2 | 1.2 | 4.8 |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | -0.9 | -0.8 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 0.3 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 3.75 | 3.75 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.71 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.2 | -9.8 | -10.8 | -7.0 | -2.8 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.5 | -3.9 | -4.4 | -3.0 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | -12.6 | -11.8 | -13.0 | -12.6 | -11.0 |
| Exports (USD billion) | 7.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 8.3 |
| Imports (USD billion) | 20.5 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 20.3 | 19.3 |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | -6.6 | -3.6 | -0.5 | 3.2 | 7.3 |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | -10.7 | -5.6 | 6.1 | -1.0 | -4.7 |
| International Reserves (USD) | 15.2 | 14.0 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 13.3 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 67.9 | 69.5 | 74.1 | 75.9 | - |
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Jordan Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 0.71 | 0.0 % | Nov 30 |
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