Jordan Economic Forecast

Jordan Economic Outlook

November 26, 2019

Economic activity was likely muted in the third quarter, following a slowdown in growth in the second quarter. Industrial production decreased sharply in September, marking the largest annual contraction in output since 2003, and came after notable declines in July and August. More positively however, trade figures for January–August showed strong export growth, likely linked to improved trading conditions with neighboring Iraq. On the political front, a major government reshuffle preceded the announcement of a second raft of measures aimed at stimulating the economy, in line with the IMF-agreed program. Job creation—around a fifth of the workforce is unemployed; strengthening government finances; and reducing the cost of doing business are key aims of the measures.

Jordan Economic Growth

Economic growth is projected to accelerate in 2020, driven by improved trade activity with Iraq and the government’s reform efforts. However, continued geopolitical instability, a large external deficit and problematic government finances present major risks. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2020, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.7% in 2021.

Jordan Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)8.48.89.29.59.7
GDP per capita (USD)3,9934,0674,0964,1454,196
GDP (USD bn)33.635.837.539.240.7
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.33.42.62.12.1
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.61.70.9-2.1-0.7
Unemployment Rate12.611.913.115.318.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-5.5-2.3-3.5-3.2-2.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)86.789.092.493.894.3
Money (annual variation in %)9.76.98.14.00.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.82.9-0.9-0.83.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.504.253.753.755.00
Exchange Rate (vs USD)0.710.710.710.710.71
Current Account (% of GDP)-10.4-7.3-9.1-9.4-10.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-3.5-2.6-3.4-3.7-4.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)-14.2-14.5-12.6-11.8-13.0
Exports (USD billion)7.98.47.87.57.5
Imports (USD billion)22.122.920.519.320.5
Exports (annual variation in %)0.36.0-6.6-3.6-0.5
Imports (annual variation in %)6.33.9-10.7-5.66.1
International Reserves (USD)13.215.315.214.013.5
External Debt (% of GDP)69.067.868.669.573.8

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Jordan Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate0.710.0 %Oct 31
Stock Market3,4700.08 %Nov 21

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