Jordan Economic Outlook
July 2, 2019Economic growth accelerated slightly in the first quarter of 2019, according to fresh GDP estimates. The uptick was driven by solid expansions in the transport, storage and communications sector, and the agriculture sector. In further good news, the merchandise trade deficit decreased by over 5% in January?April compared to the same period a year earlier thanks to rising exports and falling imports. Moreover, although industrial production fell annually in January?April, the industrial sector does appear to be stabilizing. Less positively, however, the unemployment rate rose to an over one-decade high in Q1. Meanwhile, in June, Fitch Ratings assigned Jordan a sovereign credit rating of BB-, which is three notches below the investment grade, with a stable outlook.
Jordan Economic GrowthThe economy should gain speed this year on improved trading links with Iraq and Syria; greater gas supplies from neighboring countries, particularly Egypt, which should lower electricity costs; and stronger tourism activity. Fiscal consolidation and regional instability, however, pose downside risks. Our panelists expect GDP growth of 2.3% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% in 2020.
Jordan Economy Data
|GDP per capita (USD)||3,993||4,067||4,096||4,145||4,196|
|GDP (USD bn)||33.6||35.8||37.5||39.2||40.7|
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||2.3||3.4||2.6||2.1||2.1|
|Industrial Production (annual variation in %)||1.6||1.7||0.9||-2.1||-0.7|
|Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)||-5.5||-2.3||-3.5||-3.2||-2.6|
|Public Debt (% of GDP)||86.7||89.0||92.4||93.8||94.3|
|Money (annual variation in %)||9.7||6.9||8.1||4.0||0.2|
|Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)||4.8||2.9||-0.9||-0.8||3.3|
|Policy Interest Rate (%)||4.50||4.25||3.75||3.75||5.00|
|Exchange Rate (vs USD)||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71||0.71|
|Current Account (% of GDP)||-10.4||-7.3||-9.1||-9.4||-10.6|
|Current Account Balance (USD bn)||-3.5||-2.6||-3.4||-3.7||-4.3|
|Trade Balance (USD billion)||-14.2||-14.5||-12.6||-11.8||-13.0|
|Exports (USD billion)||7.9||8.4||7.8||7.5||7.5|
|Imports (USD billion)||22.1||22.9||20.5||19.3||20.5|
|Exports (annual variation in %)||0.3||6.0||-6.6||-3.6||-0.5|
|Imports (annual variation in %)||6.3||3.9||-10.7||-5.6||6.1|
|International Reserves (USD)||13.2||15.3||15.2||14.0||13.5|
|External Debt (% of GDP)||69.0||67.8||68.6||69.5||73.8|
5 years of Jordan economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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|Exchange Rate||0.71||0.0 %||Jan 31|
|Stock Market||3,642||0.08 %||Jul 11|
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