DR Congo Economic Outlook
June 19, 2018
A booming global economy and elevated commodity prices appear to be sustaining the moderate recovery that began in earnest last year. Upbeat energy and base metal prices have been fueling activity in the extractive sectors, and stronger output metrics have pushed up business sentiment. Despite these gains, however, the economy faces crippling political uncertainty ahead of December’s long-delayed elections. Rumors persist that Joseph Kabila, the deeply unpopular longtime president who refused to relinquish power after his second term ended two years ago, is considering a third run—which he is constitutionally barred from doing. Meanwhile, anti-Kabila opposition candidates have begun rallying voters.DR Congo Economic Growth
Strong global demand for key export commodities should bolster the external sector and buoy growth this year. That said, significant political risk is weighing on the fragile economy; a third Kabila presidency would ensure political stability and limit bloodshed, but status quo politics would hinder growth prospects. Meanwhile, rampant inflation will continue hammering consumers. Analysts see growth at 3.4% in 2018, up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 3.8% in 2019.DR Congo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.0 | 79.3 | 81.7 | 84.1 | 86.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 424 | 453 | 464 | 441 | 434 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 32.7 | 35.9 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 53.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 930.3 | 911.0 | 917.0 | 1,165 | 1,592 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 922.1 | 922.2 | 918.3 | 963.5 | 1,459 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.6 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 32.8 | 6.1 | -16.5 | -3.0 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 24.6 | 17.6 | -16.8 | -3.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 13.7 | - |
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DR Congo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,612 | -0.78 % | Jul 13 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Jul 13 |
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