DR Congo Economic Outlook
April 16, 2019
The latest data shows that mining activity remained buoyant in Q4 2018, with revenues accrued to the government rising sharply in the year. Copper production accelerated and cobalt output again surged more than 30% in the quarter. However, with international mining operators fiercely opposed to the tax hike enacted last year, the sector could suffer. Chinese-owned copper producer, MMG Ltd., is the latest to review future production plans, following Glencore Plc and Eurasian Resources Group, which have already downsized and suspended operations respectively. Meanwhile, political tensions remain elevated after President Felix Tshisekedi rejected former president Joseph Kabila’s choice of prime minister, revealing the fragile nature of the coalition and raising uncertainties over the formation of a government.DR Congo Economic Growth
Growth momentum will likely be sustained this year, thanks to large-scale infrastructure development. However, uncertainties over the mining sector and political instability cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 4.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2020.DR Congo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.0 | 79.3 | 81.7 | 84.1 | 86.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 424 | 453 | 464 | 441 | 434 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 32.7 | 35.9 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 53.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 930.3 | 911.0 | 917.0 | 1,165 | 1,592 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 922.1 | 922.2 | 918.3 | 963.5 | 1,459 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.6 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 32.8 | 6.1 | -16.5 | -3.0 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 24.6 | 17.6 | -16.8 | -3.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 13.7 | - |
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DR Congo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,647 | -0.78 % | Apr 22 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Apr 18 |
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