DR Congo Economic Outlook
January 22, 2019
Opposition candidate Felix Tshisekedi clinched a surprise victory in the country’s long-awaited presidential election held on 30 December. Tshisekedi comfortably beat rival opposition candidate Martin Fayulu, who led the polls prior to the vote, thus sparking allegations of electoral fraud from Fayulu’s camp and the Catholic Church, which claim that the official count was inconsistent with leaked voting data. Despite mounting international pressure for a recount, the country’s Constitutional Court has nevertheless rejected Fayulu’s appeal for a recount and upheld Tshisekedi’s victory. While mining activity remains strong, uncertainty over the handover raises concerns over the potential hit to investor confidence that could jeopardize future investments.DR Congo Economic Growth
Robust growth is expected again this year, thanks to a buoyant external sector. Domestic demand should also remain healthy, with declining inflation encouraging greater private spending. Prolonged political uncertainty and tighter global financing conditions, however, darken the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists project growth of 4.0% in 2019, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.3% in 2020.DR Congo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.0 | 79.3 | 81.7 | 84.1 | 86.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 424 | 453 | 464 | 441 | 434 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 32.7 | 35.9 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 53.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 930.3 | 911.0 | 917.0 | 1,165 | 1,592 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 922.1 | 922.2 | 918.3 | 963.5 | 1,459 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.6 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 32.8 | 6.1 | -16.5 | -3.0 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 24.6 | 17.6 | -16.8 | -3.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 13.7 | - |
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DR Congo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,638 | -0.78 % | Feb 14 |
| Stock Market | 0.1 | 0.0 % | Feb 14 |
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