DR Congo Economic Outlook
September 18, 2018
In the wake of longtime President Joseph Kabila’s announcement in August that he would not seek a third term, politicking among his hopeful successors has been ratcheting up. His party will put forward Emmanuel Shadary, a Kabila loyalist. Meanwhile, opposition parties are scrambling to secure their names on the ballot; one leading hopeful was barred from entering the country, while Jean-Pierre Bemba, who had planned to lead a six-party coalition against the incumbents, is awaiting a final verdict on his ineligibility to contest the vote. In the run-up to the long-delayed 23 December elections, economic activity has been firming up on the strength of the extractive sectors, which have been benefiting from a strong global economy.DR Congo Economic Growth
External demand for key export commodities should underpin growth over the coming years, although crippling political uncertainty is likely to rattle the fragile economy in the short-term. Meanwhile, rampant inflation will continue hammering consumers. FocusEconomics analysts currently expect a peaceful transition of power, and see growth at 3.5% in 2018 and 3.9% in 2019, up 0.3 percentage points from last month’s forecast.DR Congo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.0 | 79.3 | 81.7 | 84.1 | 86.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 424 | 453 | 464 | 441 | 434 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 32.7 | 35.9 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 53.5 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 930.3 | 911.0 | 917.0 | 1,165 | 1,592 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 922.1 | 922.2 | 918.3 | 963.5 | 1,459 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.6 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 32.8 | 6.1 | -16.5 | -3.0 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 24.6 | 17.6 | -16.8 | -3.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 13.7 | - |
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DR Congo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,643 | -0.78 % | Oct 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.4 | 0.0 % | Oct 12 |
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