DR Congo Economic Outlook
December 13, 2018
The economy likely gained pace in the third quarter on continued strong activity in the mining and hydrocarbon sector, characterized by sharp upturns in the overseas sales of copper and cobalt—two of the country’s key export commodities. Revenues shot up by almost one-and-a-half times over this period. On 3 December, the government declared cobalt a “strategic” substance and announced an almost three-fold rise in the royalty rate that miners will pay on the commodity, potentially endangering future investments. In the political arena, violence recently erupted in the east of the country between the army and rebels ahead of the long overdue presidential election scheduled for 23 December.DR Congo Economic Growth
Momentum should pick up next year on solid export growth. Healthy domestic demand, supported by reduced inflationary pressures, should also drive the expansion. Political uncertainty and continued violence hang over the outlook, however. FocusEconomics analysts have thus far priced-in a peaceful transition of power—which would mark the first since independence in 1960. Panelists project growth of 3.8% in 2019, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 4.1% in 2020.DR Congo Economy Data
| 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 77.0 | 79.3 | 81.7 | 84.1 | 86.7 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 424 | 453 | 464 | 441 | 434 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 32.7 | 35.9 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 37.6 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) | 8.5 | 9.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 3.7 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | 2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -1.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 20.0 | 17.5 | 16.1 | 16.8 | - |
| Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 5.9 | 53.5 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%) | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 7.00 | 20.00 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD) | 930.3 | 911.0 | 917.0 | 1,165 | 1,592 |
| Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop) | 922.1 | 922.2 | 918.3 | 963.5 | 1,459 |
| Current Account (% of GDP) | -9.5 | -4.8 | -3.9 | -3.6 | -3.1 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.1 | -1.7 | -1.5 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| Trade Balance (USD billion) | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | - |
| Exports (USD billion) | 11.6 | 12.3 | 10.3 | 10.0 | - |
| Imports (USD billion) | 10.8 | 12.7 | 10.6 | 10.2 | - |
| Exports (annual variation in %) | 32.8 | 6.1 | -16.5 | -3.0 | - |
| Imports (annual variation in %) | 24.6 | 17.6 | -16.8 | -3.5 | - |
| International Reserves (USD) | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 18.9 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 13.7 | - |
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DR Congo Facts
| Value | Change | Date | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exchange Rate | 1,644 | -0.78 % | Dec 12 |
| Stock Market | 0.2 | 0.0 % | Dec 11 |
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