Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

January 23, 2018

GDP grew 7.9% year-on-year in Q3, the strongest July–September expansion in the region but still the country’s joint-weakest result in more than two years. Household spending likely drove growth in the quarter despite persistently low cocoa prices lightening consumers’ pocketbooks. Fallout from last year’s armed mutinies, which shook investor confidence and drained the public coffers, likely also bruised real-sector activity. Moreover, in light of the government’s decision to slash the guaranteed minimum price paid to cocoa farmers last April, illegal smuggling into Ghana—where farm gate prices weren’t cut—almost certainly dented exports and related proceeds. In January, the government committed to invest USD 5.2 billion into tourism-related infrastructure through 2025.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

While continuing to outperform regional peers, the economy is expected to slow this year as low cocoa prices translate into subdued household spending and heightened political risk. Elevated government spending along with ongoing structural reforms and efforts to diversify the economy should, however, pick up some of the slack. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP growth of 6.7% in 2018, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.6% in 2019.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)22.022.523.123.724.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,2191,3621,5301,3531,471
GDP (USD bn)26.830.735.332.135.8
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)10.79.28.59.28.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)10.97.49.815.68.0
Investment (annual variation in %)47.020.816.026.516.7
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)9.0-  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate9.49.49.49.39.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-3.1-2.2-2.2-2.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)45.143.444.847.8-  
Money (annual variation in %)6.911.615.919.111.0
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.32.60.51.20.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)498.5477.8541.8613.9628.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.503.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)511.6495.3497.2595.2598.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.2-1.41.4-1.0-2.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.3-0.40.5-0.3-0.8
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.11.11.92.02.3
Exports (USD billion)10.913.712.611.910.7
Imports (USD billion)9.812.610.79.98.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-0.626.0-7.7-5.7-10.5
Imports (annual variation in %)45.629.2-15.1-7.8-15.2
International Reserves (USD)3.94.24.54.7-  
External Debt (% of GDP)35.531.727.231.3-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate529.9-1.11 %Feb 19
Stock Market0.40.0 %Feb 19

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