Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

February 25, 2020

Economic growth seems to have lost some traction in the final quarter of 2019, after the industrial sector powered an acceleration in the third quarter. The business climate indicator produced by the Central Bank of West African States deteriorated in Q4 compared to Q3, suggesting that private sector activity lost steam in Q4 2019. However, the external sector likely softened the downturn thanks to higher global prices for cocoa—Cote D’Ivoire’s key export commodity. Turning to 2020, growth momentum likely improved somewhat: Global cocoa prices rose in January, signaling stronger exports in the first month of the year, while ample rains in mid-February bode well for crop harvest ahead. In politics, tensions continued to build ahead of the October elections as the country’s former rebel leader Guillaume Soro refused to drop out of the presidential race despite the arrest warrant issued against him.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Robust growth is expected to carry over into this year. Higher farmgate prices and still-low inflation are seen supporting household spending, while an improving business environment bodes well for investment activity growth. A volatile external environment, adverse weather conditions and election-related uncertainty are major downside risks to the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to grow 7.0% in 2020, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen ticking down to 6.9%.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)23.123.724.325.025.6
GDP per capita (USD)1,5311,3971,4511,5251,679
GDP (USD bn)35.433.135.338.143.0
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.88.88.07.77.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)18.914.62.911.914.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.73.12.62.52.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.8-4.0-4.5-4.0
Public Debt (% of GDP)44.847.348.449.853.2
Money (annual variation in %)14.218.211.09.213.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)0.51.20.70.70.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD)542.1603.9621.9546.3573.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.504.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)494.5591.4593.1581.7556.0
Current Account (% of GDP)1.4-0.6-1.2-2.8-4.8
Current Account Balance (USD bn)0.5-0.2-0.4-1.0-2.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.83.23.13.43.1
Exports (USD billion)12.611.710.911.912.3
Imports (USD billion)10.88.67.88.59.2
Exports (annual variation in %)-7.9-0.3-14.917.5-6.3
Imports (annual variation in %)-14.4-3.3-19.714.114.6
International Reserves (USD)4.54.74.15.6-  
External Debt (% of GDP)26.934.432.435.336.4

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate585.3-1.11 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.70.0 %Jan 07

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