Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

November 12, 2019

Growth momentum appears to have softened in the third quarter, after booming activity in the industrial and services sectors propelled an acceleration in the second quarter. The industrial sector seems to have hit a speed bump in August after July’s robust outturn: Production of oil and natural gas dipped and manufacturing sector output fell in August, pointing to a downturn in private sector activity. This, together with lower prices for cocoa, the country’s largest export commodity, boded ill for the country’s external sector in August. Furthermore, a mild contraction in retail sector activity in the same month hinted at cooling household spending dynamics despite persistently low inflation. On a more positive note, cocoa prices rebounded in September and October, signaling healthier metrics towards the end of the year.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Growth is expected to stay robust next year, supported by buoyant private consumption amid low inflation and higher farmgate prices. Moreover, accelerating investment activity, supported by an improving business environment, will further buttress the economy. That said, volatile external conditions and the likelihood of political instability surrounding the 2020 election remain key risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 7.0% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2021, growth is seen edging down to 6.8%.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	22.5	23.1	23.7	24.3	25.0
GDP per capita (USD)	1,388	1,531	1,398	1,495	1,618
GDP (USD bn)	31.3	35.4	33.1	36.4	40.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	8.9	8.8	8.8	8.0	7.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	54.5	18.9	14.6	2.9	11.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Unemployment Rate	4.3	3.7	3.1	2.6	2.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.2	-2.2	-2.8	-4.0	-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	43.4	44.8	47.3	48.4	49.8
Money (annual variation in %)	11.3	14.2	18.2	11.0	9.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.6	0.5	1.2	0.7	0.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	476.0	542.1	603.9	621.9	546.3
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.50	3.50	3.50	4.50	4.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	494.1	494.5	591.4	593.1	581.7
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.4	1.4	-0.6	-1.1	-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.4	0.5	-0.2	-0.4	-1.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	1.1	1.8	2.1	2.3	3.0
Exports (USD billion)	13.7	12.6	12.6	10.7	12.5
Imports (USD billion)	12.6	10.8	10.4	8.4	9.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	26.0	-7.9	-0.3	-14.9	17.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	29.0	-14.4	-3.3	-19.7	14.1
International Reserves (USD)	4.2	4.5	4.8	5.1	5.6
External Debt (% of GDP)	32.2	26.9	34.2	31.6	32.9

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	597.0	-1.11 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.8	0.0 %	Sep 03

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