Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

March 19, 2019

Available data points to robust growth through the fourth quarter of last year. Higher farmgate prices for the late-year cocoa harvest and low inflation likely fueled private consumption in the quarter. Less encouragingly, however, despite a bounce in export growth at year-end, full-year exports contracted on headwinds linked to cocoa supply in the summer of 2018. Meanwhile, upbeat industrial output through last year reflected improving business conditions and the development of the country’s nascent agro-processing industries. More recently, El Niño-related weather effects at the outset of this year could hit crop yields and curb exports over the short-term.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Growth should remain broadly stable this year, supported by well-anchored domestic activity and a rebound in merchandise exports. Household spending and fixed investment should hold up, partly thanks to the low-inflation environment. On the downside, volatility in commodity markets and prospects of a slump in the British pound on a no-deal Brexit could hit cocoa prices, hampering export revenues in the process. Our panel sees growth at 6.9% in 2019, which is down 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again at 6.9% in 2020.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)22.523.123.724.325.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3851,5201,3891,4811,611
GDP (USD bn)31.235.132.936.040.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.28.88.88.38.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.210.27.79.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)50.018.917.617.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate2.82.72.72.62.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.2-2.8-3.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.847.347.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.615.919.111.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.60.51.20.70.7
Exchange Rate (vs USD)477.8541.8613.9628.9573.5
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.503.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)495.3497.2595.2598.4586.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.41.5-0.6-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.40.5-0.2-0.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.11.82.12.33.0
Exports (USD billion)13.612.512.510.612.4
Imports (USD billion)12.610.710.48.39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)26.0-8.2-0.4-15.117.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.0-14.7-3.4-19.914.1
International Reserves (USD)4.24.54.84.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)32.126.834.430.7-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate574.7-1.11 %Mar 20
Stock Market0.40.0 %Mar 20

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