Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

November 17, 2020

After the economy contracted in Q2 due to the blow from the Covid-19 pandemic, conditions likely improved in Q3, albeit remained challenging overall. The gradual lifting of coronavirus restrictions should have supported activity, with business sentiment improving throughout the quarter. However, still-muted foreign demand is set to have weighed on the external sector. Turning to Q4, social unrest intensified after incumbent President Ouattara secured a third term in office in the 31 October presidential elections, winning around 94% of the votes. However, opposition groups, which boycotted the election, rejected the result and announced a parallel government, which, in turn, resulted in several opposition leaders reportedly being charged with sedition. The escalation of protests and clashes between rival groups could weigh heavily on investor sentiment going forward.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

After being hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic this year, GDP growth is seen picking up pace 2021 on reviving domestic demand. Meanwhile, stronger global demand should bolster the external sector, particularly key oil and cocoa exports. A prolonged health crisis and continued post-election social unrest cloud the outlook, however. FocusEconomics panelists project GDP to expand 6.4% in 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 6.5% in 2022.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)23.724.325.025.626.3
GDP per capita (USD)1,3971,4511,5251,6791,686
GDP (USD bn)33.135.338.143.044.3
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)8.88.07.77.47.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Investment (annual variation in %)14.62.911.914.4-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate3.12.63.33.23.3
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.0-3.0-3.3-4.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)47.348.449.853.2-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.211.09.213.410.8
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)1.20.70.70.40.8
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.504.504.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)603.9621.9546.3573.8584.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)591.4593.1581.7556.0586.0
Current Account (% of GDP)-0.6-1.2-2.8-4.8-4.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.2-0.4-1.0-2.1-2.2
Trade Balance (USD billion)3.23.13.42.52.3
Exports (USD billion)11.710.911.911.911.7
Imports (USD billion)8.67.88.59.59.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-9.5-7.39.10.4-1.7
Imports (annual variation in %)-5.8-8.88.811.3-0.3
International Reserves (USD)4.74.65.75.76.7
External Debt (% of GDP)34.432.435.336.4-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate585.3-1.11 %Jan 01
Stock Market0.70.0 %Jan 07

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