Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

August 20, 2019

Economic growth likely remained robust in the second quarter. Despite a slow start to the rainy season, agricultural activity seemed to remain buoyant at the outset of Q2, underpinned by a flourishing cocoa harvest and thriving cotton production. This, coupled with a boost in oil and natural gas output in April, along with a rebound in retail sales in the same month, continued to power growth. That said, a sharper downturn in manufacturing and a swing to contraction in gold mining in the opening month of the quarter likely restrained the pace of expansion. While cocoa prices on the global market made some gains in Q2, they have remained relatively low and fell markedly at the end of July. In a bid to provide local farmers a better deal, Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana have both pledged to set a price floor for cocoa and announced a hike in the farmgate price for the commodity from October.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

The economy is set to grow at a strong pace again this year, thanks to robust domestic economic activity. Private consumption growth is seen gaining strength amid low inflation and higher farmgate prices, while a favorable business environment should buttress fixed investment. The main downside risks to the outlook include political instability and a challenging external backdrop. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 7.2% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast. In 2020, growth is seen ticking down to 6.9%.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	22.5	23.1	23.7	24.3	25.0
GDP per capita (USD)	1,388	1,531	1,398	1,495	1,618
GDP (USD bn)	31.3	35.4	33.1	36.4	40.4
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	8.9	8.8	8.8	8.0	7.7
Consumption (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	54.5	18.9	14.6	2.9	11.9
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	-	-	-	-	-
Unemployment Rate	4.3	3.7	3.1	2.6	2.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-2.2	-2.2	-2.8	-4.0	-4.5
Public Debt (% of GDP)	43.4	44.8	47.3	48.4	49.8
Money (annual variation in %)	11.3	14.2	18.2	11.0	9.2
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	2.6	0.5	1.2	0.7	0.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)	3.50	3.50	3.50	4.50	4.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	476.0	542.1	603.9	621.9	546.3
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	494.1	494.5	591.4	593.1	581.7
Current Account (% of GDP)	-1.4	1.4	-0.6	-1.1	-2.6
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	-0.4	0.5	-0.2	-0.4	-1.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	1.1	1.8	2.1	2.3	3.0
Exports (USD billion)	13.7	12.6	12.6	10.7	12.5
Imports (USD billion)	12.6	10.8	10.4	8.4	9.6
Exports (annual variation in %)	26.0	-7.9	-0.3	-14.9	17.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	29.0	-14.4	-3.3	-19.7	14.1
International Reserves (USD)	4.2	4.5	4.8	5.1	5.6
External Debt (% of GDP)	32.2	26.9	34.2	31.6	32.9

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	597.0	-1.11 %	Sep 04
Stock Market	0.8	0.0 %	Sep 03

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