Cote d'Ivoire Economic Forecast

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Outlook

May 21, 2019

The economy expanded at the fastest pace in almost two years in the last quarter of 2018 (Q4: +7.8% year-on-year; Q3: +7.7% yoy). A rebound in output from the all-important cocoa sector and robust manufacturing activity fueled the overall expansion. In addition, household spending likely accelerated, amid higher farmgate prices for the late-year crop and low inflation throughout the quarter. Turning to Q1, growth appears to have sustained its momentum, underpinned by a bumper cocoa harvest. Industrial production consequently gained steam in January, thanks to robust production in the nascent agro-processing sector, while merchandise exports rose in Q1 amid higher exports of cocoa and oil-derived products.

Cote d'Ivoire Economic Growth

Growth is expected to remain strong this year, underpinned by healthy domestic activity. Private consumption will likely accelerate, amid stable farmgate prices and weak inflation. While the mid-year cocoa crop is expected to be affected by dry weather in April, favorable rainfall in May should boost the harvest ahead. Our panel sees growth at 7.1% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and at 6.8% in 2020.

Cote d'Ivoire Economy Data

20132014201520162017
Population (million)22.523.123.724.325.0
GDP per capita (USD)1,3851,5201,3891,4811,611
GDP (USD bn)31.235.132.936.040.2
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)9.28.88.88.38.1
Consumption (annual variation in %)4.210.27.79.6-  
Investment (annual variation in %)50.018.917.617.1-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Unemployment Rate2.82.72.72.62.6
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.2-2.2-2.8-3.9-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)43.444.847.347.0-  
Money (annual variation in %)11.615.919.111.08.3
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)2.60.51.20.70.7
Policy Interest Rate (%)3.503.503.504.504.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)477.8541.8613.9628.9573.5
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)495.3497.2595.2598.4586.7
Current Account (% of GDP)-1.41.5-0.6-1.1-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-0.40.5-0.2-0.4-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)1.11.82.12.33.0
Exports (USD billion)13.612.512.510.612.4
Imports (USD billion)12.610.710.48.39.5
Exports (annual variation in %)26.0-8.2-0.4-15.117.5
Imports (annual variation in %)29.0-14.7-3.4-19.914.1
International Reserves (USD)4.24.54.84.3-  
External Debt (% of GDP)32.126.834.430.7-  

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Cote d'Ivoire Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate579.4-1.11 %Jun 13
Stock Market0.60.0 %Jun 13

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