Belgium Economic Forecast

Belgium Economic Outlook

September 28, 2021

National accounts data confirmed that GDP expanded at a faster rate on a quarter-on-quarter basis in the second quarter, as falling numbers of new Covid-19 cases and more moderate restrictions towards the end of the period likely propped up activity. Q2’s result came on the back of swifter public and private spending growth, coupled with a marked rebound in exports. That said, a notable slowdown in private investment growth capped the overall expansion. Turning to Q3, the recovery should have gained traction: Industrial production rose at a quick pace in July on the back of strong manufacturing output—mainly linked to a surge in the production of Covid-19 vaccines—while consumer and business confidence remained upbeat through the quarter, pointing towards healthy activity in the quarter.

Belgium Economic Growth

A broad-based rebound in activity amid the easing of domestic restrictions is expected to help the economy make up some lost ground this year. In 2022, GDP growth is expected to moderate somewhat as the base effect subsides, but it should still remain robust. That said, uncertainty around the course of the pandemic dampens the outlook. FocusEconomics analysts see the economy expanding 5.0% in 2021. In 2022, they see it growing 3.3%, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast.

Belgium Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)11.211.311.411.411.5
GDP per capita (EUR)37,08338,04939,32140,31341,289
GDP (EUR bn)417430446460473
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.01.52.01.41.4
Domestic Demand (annual variation in %)2.22.21.22.11.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)1.61.91.81.51.1
Investment (annual variation in %)3.73.81.34.03.2
Exports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.76.55.31.21.1
Imports (G&S, annual variation in %)3.97.54.42.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-1.24.62.91.74.8
Retail Sales (annual variation in %)2.3-0.1-0.5-0.60.6
Unemployment Rate8.57.97.16.05.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-2.4-2.4-0.7-0.8-1.9
Public Debt (% of GDP)10510510299.898.6
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %, eop)1.52.22.12.20.9
Inflation Rate (HICP, annual variation in %)0.61.82.22.31.3
Inflation (PPI, annual variation in %)-  -  -  -  -  
Policy Interest Rate (%)0.050.00.00.00.0
Stock Market (annual variation in %)12.6-2.510.3-18.522.0
Exchange Rate (vs USD)1.091.051.201.141.12
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)1.111.111.131.181.12
Current Account (% of GDP)1.30.61.2-1.3-1.3
Current Account Balance (EUR bn)5.82.45.5-6.4-5.8
Trade Balance (EUR billion)19.217.218.511.616.7
External Debt (% of GDP)256277256242248

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Belgium Facts

Value Change Date
Bond Yield0.100.15 %Dec 31
Exchange Rate1.120.65 %Dec 31

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