Algeria Economic Outlook

July 3, 2018

New projects coming online in the hydrocarbon sector, along with higher oil prices, have been helping the economy accelerate this year from 2017’s disappointing performance. Hydrocarbon exports were up 14% from last year in January–May, while the Touat gas field is expected to begin production in H2 2018, further boosting output after the launch of the Timimoun project in March. State-owned Sonatrach recently renewed a 12-year, EUR 30 billion contract to supply gas to Spain, and expects to sign a new deal with ExxonMobil to exploit shale oil by year-end. Meanwhile, the government is currently replacing its ineffective import ban with customs duties, shoring up support for the non-oil sector, and preparing a new energy law in early 2019 to support oil investments.

Algeria Economic Growth

The oil sector should drive growth higher this year. Fiscal support, financed by Central Bank money, should also shore up non-oil growth. However, monetary financing is likely to stoke inflation and increase imbalances. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.7% in 2018, up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.5% in 2019.

Algeria Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	38.3	39.1	40.0	40.8	41.5
GDP per capita (USD)	5,459	5,465	4,163	3,903	4,104
GDP (USD bn)	209	214	166	159	170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.8	3.8	3.7	3.3	1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.4	3.2	3.6	2.6	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	8.6	6.4	5.7	3.5	-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	2.2	-1.4	0.6	1.5	2.3
Unemployment Rate	9.8	10.6	11.2	10.5	11.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.9	-8.0	-16.9	-13.5	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	7.1	7.2	14.9	19.6	-
Money (annual variation in %)	11.6	12.9	11.7	3.5	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	3.3	2.9	4.8	6.4	5.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.00	4.00	4.00	3.50	3.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	78.42	87.92	107.1	110.4	114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	79.61	80.60	100.4	109.4	110.9
Current Account (% of GDP)	0.6	-4.3	-16.4	-16.5	-12.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	1.2	-9.3	-27.3	-26.2	-22.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	9.4	0.5	-18.1	-20.1	-14.3
Exports (USD billion)	64.4	60.1	34.6	29.3	34.4
Imports (USD billion)	55.0	59.7	52.7	49.4	48.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	-10.3	-6.6	-42.5	-15.2	17.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	13.8	8.5	-11.8	-6.1	-1.5
International Reserves (USD)	195	180	145	115	97.9
External Debt (% of GDP)	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.4	-

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Algeria Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	117.8	-0.11 %	Jul 17

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