Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

January 14, 2020

Economic growth accelerated in the third quarter as the economy benefited from a healthy rebound in the hydrocarbon sector. In fact, the hydrocarbon sector posted its first annual increase in two years. The non-energy economy, however, performed poorly as bad weather hit agricultural production and a protracted political crisis dampened both business and consumer confidence. On the political front, Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the 12 December presidential election and appointed a new government on 2 January. Although Tebboune attempted to assuage protester’s concerns, mass rallies continued, with demonstrators accusing the new President of being part of the traditional political establishment. Algeria’s political crisis has been exacerbated by an ailing economy caused by a massive drop in oil revenues.

Algeria Economic Growth

The economy is expected to recover this year from the soft patch in 2019. That said, the recovery should be limited as economic fundamentals remain weak. Lack of investment in the hydrocarbon sector due to years of severe protectionist policies, large twin deficits, high unemployment among youth and political unrest will continue to weigh on economic dynamics. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.7% in 2020, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.8% in 2021.

Algeria Economy Data

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Population (million)38.339.140.040.841.7
GDP per capita (USD)5,4595,4654,1633,8964,018
GDP (USD bn)209214166159168
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)2.83.83.73.31.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.43.23.62.61.7
Investment (annual variation in %)8.66.45.73.53.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)0.93.91.91.52.3
Unemployment Rate9.810.611.210.511.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-0.4-7.3-15.3-13.0-6.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)7.67.78.720.427.5
Money (annual variation in %)11.612.911.73.514.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.13.94.45.85.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.003.503.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.4287.92107.1110.4114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)79.6180.60100.4109.4110.9
Current Account (% of GDP)0.6-4.3-16.4-16.5-13.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)1.2-9.3-27.3-26.2-22.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)9.40.5-18.1-20.1-14.4
Exports (USD billion)64.460.134.629.334.6
Imports (USD billion)55.059.752.749.449.0
Exports (annual variation in %)-10.3-6.6-42.5-15.218.0
Imports (annual variation in %)13.88.5-11.8-6.1-0.9
International Reserves (USD)19518014511597.6
External Debt (% of GDP)2.52.62.83.43.4

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Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

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