Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

February 6, 2018

Economic growth in the third quarter was a bleak 1.4% year-on-year, held back by a significant contraction in the hydrocarbon sector. An otherwise broad-based improvement across sectors was unable to lift the economy; growth has been lackluster since the second quarter, when the hydrocarbon sector first slipped into decline. Despite last year’s notable improvement in oil prices, the sector was unable to reap the benefits, given its severe and growing capacity constraints resulting from a lack of investment. Moreover, recent survey data for the third quarter suggested that industrial output was underwhelming, pointing to the need for a more rapid implementation of the government’s long-promised liberalizing reforms.

Algeria Economic Growth

The economy is not expected to fully recover this year, as residual austerity measures continue weighing on household spending and outdated infrastructure again constrains hydrocarbon output. That said, expansionary fiscal policy and upbeat exports should provide some lift. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.2% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.4% in 2019.

Algeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)37.538.339.140.040.8
GDP per capita (USD)5,5685,4615,4694,136-  
GDP (USD bn)209209214165-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.42.83.83.83.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  2.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  5.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.12.2-1.40.6-  
Unemployment Rate11.09.810.611.210.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.4-0.9-8.0-17.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.17.07.214.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.811.612.911.73.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.93.32.94.86.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.004.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.6978.4287.92107.1110.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)77.6479.6180.60100.4109.4
Current Account (% of GDP)5.90.5-4.3-16.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)12.31.2-9.3-27.3-26.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)20.29.90.5-18.1-20.4
Exports (USD billion)71.764.960.134.629.1
Imports (USD billion)51.655.059.752.749.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-9.6-7.3-42.5-15.9
Imports (annual variation in %)9.96.68.5-11.8-6.1
International Reserves (USD)191194179145115
External Debt (% of GDP)1.81.61.71.8-  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate114.4-0.11 %Feb 21

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