Algeria Economic Outlook
November 30, 2021A recent release shows that GDP grew strongly in Q2, although this was aided by a base effect, following only tepid growth in Q1. In Q3, the non-hydrocarbon sector was likely hit by a rise in Covid-19 cases and a subsequent tightening of restrictions, including an expansion of the nighttime curfew. Meanwhile, the hydrocarbon sector seemingly fared better amid higher oil prices and production. In Q4, a major lift-off in growth is unlikely. Although the removal of the curfew in mid-October should be boosting non-energy activity, the positive impact is likely being dulled by surging food prices. At the same time, while oil production continued to increase in October, the recent closure of the Maghreb gas pipeline could be causing some disruption to gas exports—notwithstanding healthy natural gas demand from Europe and the dinar’s gradual depreciation supporting competitiveness.
Algeria Economic GrowthGrowth momentum will soften slightly next year on a tougher base effect and a less expansionary fiscal stance. Nonetheless, the hydrocarbon sector should offer support amid still-elevated energy prices and significant government investment in production capacity. Social tensions, geopolitical rifts and the fate of the government’s reform plan are key factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists foresee the economy growing 2.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.
Algeria Economy Data
5 years of Algeria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
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