Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

November 30, 2021

A recent release shows that GDP grew strongly in Q2, although this was aided by a base effect, following only tepid growth in Q1. In Q3, the non-hydrocarbon sector was likely hit by a rise in Covid-19 cases and a subsequent tightening of restrictions, including an expansion of the nighttime curfew. Meanwhile, the hydrocarbon sector seemingly fared better amid higher oil prices and production. In Q4, a major lift-off in growth is unlikely. Although the removal of the curfew in mid-October should be boosting non-energy activity, the positive impact is likely being dulled by surging food prices. At the same time, while oil production continued to increase in October, the recent closure of the Maghreb gas pipeline could be causing some disruption to gas exports—notwithstanding healthy natural gas demand from Europe and the dinar’s gradual depreciation supporting competitiveness.

Algeria Economic Growth

Growth momentum will soften slightly next year on a tougher base effect and a less expansionary fiscal stance. Nonetheless, the hydrocarbon sector should offer support amid still-elevated energy prices and significant government investment in production capacity. Social tensions, geopolitical rifts and the fate of the government’s reform plan are key factors to watch. FocusEconomics panelists foresee the economy growing 2.9% in 2022, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.

Algeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)40.040.841.742.643.4
GDP per capita (USD)4,1533,9194,0124,0813,914
GDP (USD bn)166160167174170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.73.21.31.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.62.62.22.71.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.73.53.43.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.91.52.4-1.52.7
Unemployment Rate11.210.511.711.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.3-13.1-6.6-4.5-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.720.527.138.146.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.73.514.40.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.45.85.93.52.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)107.1110.4114.8118.3119.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)100.4109.4110.9116.6119.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.4-16.4-13.2-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.3-26.2-22.1-16.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-18.1-20.1-14.4-7.5-  
Exports (USD billion)34.629.334.641.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.749.449.048.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-42.5-15.218.018.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.8-6.1-0.9-0.9-  
International Reserves (USD)14511497.680.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)2.83.43.43.3-  

Sample Report

5 years of Algeria economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.

Download

Sample Report

Get a sample report showing our regional, country and commodities data and analysis.

Download

Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

Request a Trial

Start working with the reports used by the world’s major financial institutions, multinational enterprises & government agencies now. Click on the button below to get started.

Sign Up

Search form