Algeria Economic Outlook

September 3, 2019

Annual growth decelerated to 1.5% in the first quarter, down from the 2.3% expansion recorded in Q4 2018, as protests that erupted in February and weakness in the hydrocarbon sector, which contracted for the seventh quarter in a row in Q1, dragged on the economy. Available information for Q2 is not any rosier: The trade deficit rose 12% in the first half of the year compared to the previous period, while international reserves continue to steadily decline as authorities attempt to shore up the dinar. As a consequence of the current political impasse, the interim government decided to halt planned economic reforms on fears that reducing government subsidies, a new hydrocarbons law and fiscal consolidation could all reignite protests.

Algeria Economic Growth

Economic growth will remain subdued this year due to heightened political unrest and low prices for oil and gas. Moreover, production for the two commodities, which account for 90% of the country’s exports and 60% of the budget, remains stagnant. Key downside risks are escalating political tensions and weak global growth, which could trim demand for oil and gas. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 1.6% in 2019, which is unchanged from last month’s forecast, and 1.7% in 2020.

Algeria Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	38.3	39.1	40.0	40.8	41.7
GDP per capita (USD)	5,459	5,465	4,163	3,896	4,018
GDP (USD bn)	209	214	166	159	168
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.8	3.8	3.7	3.3	1.4
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.4	3.2	3.6	2.6	1.7
Investment (annual variation in %)	8.6	6.4	5.7	3.5	3.4
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	0.9	3.9	1.9	1.5	2.3
Unemployment Rate	9.8	10.6	11.2	10.5	11.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.4	-7.3	-15.3	-13.0	-6.6
Public Debt (% of GDP)	7.6	7.7	8.7	20.4	27.5
Money (annual variation in %)	11.6	12.9	11.7	3.5	14.4
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	4.1	3.9	4.4	5.8	5.9
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.00	4.00	4.00	3.50	3.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	78.42	87.92	107.1	110.4	114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	79.61	80.60	100.4	109.4	110.9
Current Account (% of GDP)	0.6	-4.3	-16.4	-16.5	-13.2
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	1.2	-9.3	-27.3	-26.2	-22.1
Trade Balance (USD billion)	9.4	0.5	-18.1	-20.1	-14.4
Exports (USD billion)	64.4	60.1	34.6	29.3	34.6
Imports (USD billion)	55.0	59.7	52.7	49.4	49.0
Exports (annual variation in %)	-10.3	-6.6	-42.5	-15.2	18.0
Imports (annual variation in %)	13.8	8.5	-11.8	-6.1	-0.9
International Reserves (USD)	195	180	145	115	97.6
External Debt (% of GDP)	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.4	3.4

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Algeria Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	120.2	-0.11 %	Sep 04

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