Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

November 3, 2020

The economic panorama remains subdued in the second half of the year, amid the twin impact of pandemic-induced restrictions and tumbling oil revenues. Oil output slumped again in Q3, remaining close to July’s two-decade low level in August and September, thus weighing on government finances. Meanwhile, stubbornly high daily infection rates through Q3 and into the start of Q4 continue to require restrictions on daily life, hampering domestic activity. Meanwhile, President Tebboune was hospitalized on 27 October and later transferred to Germany for treatment, although the cause of illness has not been revealed. This came days before proposed changes to the constitution won the most votes in a national referendum on 1 November. However, fewer than 25% of the electorate turned out to vote amid widespread calls to boycott the poll.

Algeria Economic Growth

The economy is set for a mild rebound in 2021, following this year’s sharp contraction. Returning household consumption and firming fixed investment should support domestic demand, while improving foreign demand should bolster exports. However, the persistent nature of the pandemic and its impact on future oil and gas demand are key downside risks. FocusEconomics panelists foresee the economy growing 3.6% in 2021, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and increasing 2.4% in 2022.

Algeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)40.040.841.742.643.4
GDP per capita (USD)4,1533,9194,0124,0813,914
GDP (USD bn)166160167174170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.73.21.31.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.62.62.22.71.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.73.53.43.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.91.52.4-1.52.7
Unemployment Rate11.210.511.711.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.3-13.1-6.6-4.5-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.720.527.138.146.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.73.514.40.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.45.85.93.52.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)107.1110.4114.8118.3119.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)100.4109.4110.9116.6119.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.4-16.4-13.2-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.3-26.2-22.1-16.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-18.1-20.1-14.4-7.5-  
Exports (USD billion)34.629.334.641.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.749.449.048.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-42.5-15.218.018.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.8-6.1-0.9-0.9-  
International Reserves (USD)14511497.680.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)2.83.43.43.3-  

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Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

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