Algeria Economic Outlook

April 2, 2019

Following widespread protests, President Abdelaziz Bouteflika announced he would resign before 28 April, paving the way for new elections within 90 days. On 31 March, Bouteflika announced a new cabinet headed by recently-appointed PM Noureddine Bedoui, which will likely act as caretaker government until the next election. So far, the political instability does not seem to have affected hydrocarbon production. However, the unrest has stalled the efforts of state-owned oil company Sonatrach to attract foreign investment and could cause further disruptions ahead. It has also prompted ExxonMobil to halt talks regarding a large oil field project, while other major energy companies have expressed concerns regarding the country’s production outlook.

Algeria Economic Growth

Large scale investment projects from Sonatrach, which were expected to power growth this year, are now at risks due to the rapidly shifting political environment, threatening the country’s growth prospects. Moreover, high levels of youth unemployment and dwindling foreign reserves present significant risks to the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists expect growth of 2.2% in 2019, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.0% in 2020.

Algeria Economy Data

	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Population (million)	38.3	39.1	40.0	40.8	41.5
GDP per capita (USD)	5,459	5,465	4,163	3,903	4,104
GDP (USD bn)	209	214	166	159	170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)	2.8	3.8	3.7	3.3	1.6
Consumption (annual variation in %)	3.4	3.2	3.6	2.6	-
Investment (annual variation in %)	8.6	6.4	5.7	3.5	-
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)	2.2	-1.4	0.6	1.5	2.3
Unemployment Rate	9.8	10.6	11.2	10.5	11.7
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)	-0.9	-8.0	-16.9	-13.5	-
Public Debt (% of GDP)	7.1	7.2	14.9	19.6	-
Money (annual variation in %)	11.6	12.9	11.7	3.5	-
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)	3.3	2.9	4.8	6.4	5.6
Policy Interest Rate (%)	4.00	4.00	4.00	3.50	3.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)	78.42	87.92	107.1	110.4	114.8
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)	79.61	80.60	100.4	109.4	110.9
Current Account (% of GDP)	0.6	-4.3	-16.4	-16.5	-12.9
Current Account Balance (USD bn)	1.2	-9.3	-27.3	-26.2	-22.0
Trade Balance (USD billion)	9.4	0.5	-18.1	-20.1	-14.3
Exports (USD billion)	64.4	60.1	34.6	29.3	34.4
Imports (USD billion)	55.0	59.7	52.7	49.4	48.7
Exports (annual variation in %)	-10.3	-6.6	-42.5	-15.2	17.5
Imports (annual variation in %)	13.8	8.5	-11.8	-6.1	-1.5
International Reserves (USD)	195	180	145	115	97.9
External Debt (% of GDP)	2.5	2.6	2.8	3.4	-

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Algeria Facts

	Value	Change	Date
Exchange Rate	119.4	-0.11 %	Apr 22

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