Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

May 12, 2020

The economy slowed markedly at the tail end of 2019, with annual growth falling to 0.2% in Q4 from 1.3% in Q3. As such, overall growth for 2019 slumped to a 25-year low of 0.8% (2018: +1.4% year-on-year). A steep contraction in the oil sector, with refining activity slumping markedly, drove the deceleration in Q4; in contrast, the non-oil sector ticked up slightly on surging agricultural output. Turning to 2020, the economic backdrop is likely to worsen significantly, as extensive lockdown measures curb domestic demand, while OPEC+ oil production cuts and plummeting oil prices weigh on the external sector. Furthermore, historically low oil prices will put significant pressure on state finances, with the government announcing a 50% cut in public spending in early May.

Algeria Economic Growth

The economy is seen contracting this year due to subdued domestic demand, as private consumption falters amid lockdown conditions. Volatile oil prices and diminished global demand is a key risk to exports, while continued political tensions further cloud the outlook. FocusEconomics panelists forecast the economy to shrink 3.8% in 2020, which is down 3.2 percentage points from last month’s estimate, before growing 3.2% in 2021.

Algeria Economy Data

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Population (million)40.040.841.742.643.4
GDP per capita (USD)4,1533,9194,0124,0813,914
GDP (USD bn)166160167174170
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.73.21.31.40.8
Consumption (annual variation in %)3.62.62.22.71.9
Investment (annual variation in %)5.73.53.43.11.0
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)1.91.52.4-1.52.7
Unemployment Rate11.210.511.711.7-  
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-15.3-13.1-6.6-4.5-5.1
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.720.527.138.146.3
Money (annual variation in %)11.73.514.40.5-  
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)4.45.85.93.52.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.003.503.753.753.75
Exchange Rate (vs USD)107.1110.4114.8118.3119.1
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)100.4109.4110.9116.6119.4
Current Account (% of GDP)-16.4-16.4-13.2-9.6-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)-27.3-26.2-22.1-16.7-  
Trade Balance (USD billion)-18.1-20.1-14.4-7.5-  
Exports (USD billion)34.629.334.641.1-  
Imports (USD billion)52.749.449.048.6-  
Exports (annual variation in %)-42.5-15.218.018.9-  
Imports (annual variation in %)-11.8-6.1-0.9-0.9-  
International Reserves (USD)14511497.680.2-  
External Debt (% of GDP)2.83.43.43.3-  

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Algeria Facts

Value Change Date
Exchange Rate119.1-0.11 %Jan 01

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