Algeria Economic Forecast

Algeria Economic Outlook

November 28, 2017

Industrial data for Q2 corroborated the recent softening of the economy; annual GDP growth fell to a multi-year low in the second quarter on lower oil and gas output. By sector, industrial output from the hydrocarbon and extractive sectors slumped, likely due to constrained capacity from weak investment in the country’s older oil and gas fields. Moreover, output in the manufacturing sector declined sharply. Meanwhile, both agroindustrial output and the recovery of the agricultural sector moderated in the quarter. More broadly, the non-hydrocarbon economy appears to be struggling, with growth in related industries falling by nearly two thirds in H1 from a year ago, while related services also slowed in the quarter as strict austerity measures began to bite.

Algeria Economic Growth

Tepid growth is expected to persist next year as a weak non-hydrocarbon economy and residual austerity measures constrain household spending. Upside prospects include much-needed investment in oil and gas infrastructure upgrades, which could alleviate capacity concerns over the medium term. FocusEconomics panelists expect GDP to grow 2.3% in 2018, down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and again in 2019.

Algeria Economy Data

20122013201420152016
Population (million)37.538.339.140.040.8
GDP per capita (USD)5,5685,4615,4694,136-  
GDP (USD bn)209209214165-  
Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)3.42.83.83.83.5
Consumption (annual variation in %)-  -  -  2.1-  
Investment (annual variation in %)-  -  -  5.9-  
Industrial Production (annual variation in %)-0.12.2-1.40.6-  
Unemployment Rate11.09.810.611.210.5
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)-4.4-0.9-8.0-17.0-  
Public Debt (% of GDP)8.17.07.214.7-  
Money (annual variation in %)18.811.612.911.73.5
Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %)8.93.32.94.86.4
Policy Interest Rate (%)4.004.004.004.003.50
Exchange Rate (vs USD)78.6978.4287.92107.1110.4
Exchange Rate (vs USD, aop)77.6479.6180.60100.4109.4
Current Account (% of GDP)5.90.5-4.3-16.5-  
Current Account Balance (USD bn)12.31.2-9.3-27.3-26.3
Trade Balance (USD billion)20.29.90.5-18.1-20.4
Exports (USD billion)71.764.960.134.629.1
Imports (USD billion)51.655.059.752.749.4
Exports (annual variation in %)-1.6-9.6-7.3-42.5-15.9
Imports (annual variation in %)9.96.68.5-11.8-6.1
International Reserves (USD)191194179145115
External Debt (% of GDP)1.81.61.71.8-  

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Algeria Facts

ValueChangeDate
Exchange Rate115.1-0.11 %Dec 06

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