GDP in Taiwan
Taiwan - GDP
Growth accelerates in Q4 2019
The economy expanded 3.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, according to a second GDP release. This was marginally lower than the preliminary 3.4% reading but above the 3.0% expansion recorded in the third quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted, quarter-on-quarter basis, growth accelerated to a revised 1.9% in Q4 (previously reported: +1.7% qoq), up from 0.6% in Q3 and marking the strongest expansion since Q1 2012. Meanwhile, full-year growth clocked in at 2.7% in 2019, marginally below 2018’s 2.8% expansion but matching the estimate from the preliminary release.
On the domestic front, gross capital formation spearheaded the upturn, soaring 15.0% in Q4 on a year-on-year basis (preliminary estimate: +10.7% year-on-year; Q3: +3.7% yoy). This was likely driven by a reshoring of capital by Taiwanese companies, spurred by government measures that aim to attract overseas investment. That said, consumption metrics were slightly less upbeat: Private consumption increased 2.6% in Q4 (preliminary estimate: +2.9% yoy), inching up from 2.5% in the prior quarter, while government spending slowed to 2.0% (preliminary estimate: +1.9% yoy), from 3.8% in Q3.
In contrast, the external sector’s overall contribution to growth deteriorated in the final quarter. Although export growth accelerated to 2.6% year-on-year (preliminary estimate: +2.3% yoy), having flatlined in Q3, import growth hit 4.4% in Q4 (preliminary estimate: +4.3% yoy) after contracting 2.6% in the previous quarter.
Looking ahead, the re-election of President Tsai in January signals a continuation of pro-growth policies that should support the economy. Strong demand for semi-conductor technologies is seen bolstering exports and supporting a projected rebound in manufacturing output, although external headwinds such as the development of U.S.-China trade policies and the recent coronavirus outbreak provide major risks to the outlook.
FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists project GDP will grow 2.3% in 2020, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast. For 2021, the panel estimates that economic activity will increase 2.2%.
Taiwan - GDP Data
|Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %)||4.0||0.8||1.5||3.1||2.6|
5 years of economic forecasts for more than 30 economic indicators.
Taiwan GDP Chart
Source: Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting & Statistics and FocusEconomics calculations.
|Bond Yield||0.69||1.28 %||Dec 31|
|Exchange Rate||29.91||0.07 %||Jan 01|
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February 12, 2020
The economy expanded 3.3% in the fourth quarter compared to the same quarter a year earlier, according to a second GDP release.
February 7, 2020
Merchandise exports slumped 7.6% in annual terms in January, contrasting December’s 4.0% expansion.
February 6, 2020
Consumer prices increased 0.59% in January compared with the previous month, accelerating from December ’s revised 0.06% increase (previously reported: +0.04%).
February 3, 2020
The manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), reported by IHS Markit, climbed to 51.8 in January from 50.8 in December, thus moving further above the 50-threshold and signaling the fastest pace of improvement in operating conditions since August 2018. The improvement came amid stronger growth of both output and new work received by manufacturers, while export sales returned to expansionary territory for the first time in 17 months.
January 22, 2020
Industrial output increased 6.0% in December compared to the same month a year earlier, quickening from the 1.8% increase recorded in November. The acceleration in December was chiefly driven by strong output growth in the manufacturing sector, which represents more than 90% of total industrial production, while a return to expansion in electricity and gas supply supported the overall figure.